Attachment A - AMD Memo - LUAIIP.pdf

To: 
From: 
ATTACHMENT A 
• 
City of Phoeni,x 
PLANtING /INO OMLOFMENT DEPARiMENT 
Alan Stephenson 
Deputy City Manager 
Joshua Bednarek 
Planning and Development Director 
Date: 
December 11, 2024 
Subject: 
ITEM 112 ON THE DECEMBER 18, 2024, FORMAL AGENDA 
ADOPTION OF LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS AND INFRASTRUCTURE 
IMPROVEMENTS PLANS 
Item 112, Adoption of Land Use Assumptions and Infrastructure Improvements Plans, is a 
request to approve updated Land Use Assumptions (LUA) and Infrastructure Improvements 
Plans (IIP) (collectively, the Infrastructure Financing Plan or "IFP") in accordance with Arizona 
Revised Statutes 9-463.05 Development Fees. Approval of the LUAs and IIPs is required prior 
to approving a development impact fee or updating an existing development impact fee because 
these plans gather, analyze and present the necessary data to develop the fees. 
A public hearing on LUAs and IIPs was conducted during the Formal City Council meeting on 
November 13, 2024. A future public hearing on proposed changes to the city's development 
impact fees is anticipated on or after January 22, 2025. A second future public hearing and 
adoption of the impact fees will be scheduled in spring of 2025. 
Deputy City Manager Stephenson appointed the Impact Fee Ad Hoc Committee to provide input to 
staff and professional consultants on the underlying assumptions supporting the draft IFP prior to 
recommendations going to City Council. The Ad Hoc Committee convened fourteen times between 
January 18, and October 3, 2024. On November 4, 2024, the Ad Hoc Committee submitted written 
comments that included the following recommendation: The Ad Hoc Committee recommends that 
staff continue to refine the IFP as needed to ensure new development does not pay more than its 
proportional share of new public infrastructure required for or impacted by such development. The 
full Ad Hoc Committee report, along with additional IFP materials, can be found on the web at: 
www.phoenix.gov/pddsite/Pages/Proposed2025lnfrastructureFinancingP1an 
Consistent with the Ad Hoc recommendation above, and to ensure the approved LUAs and IIPs 
are based on the best available information, staff recommends updating and replacing certain 
assumptions that could affect proposed changes to the city's impact fees. 
Staff recommends approval of the Land Use Assumptions and Infrastructure Improvements 
Plans, subject to the following amendments: 
1.
THE LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS (LUAS) CONTAINED IN EACH INFRASTRUCTURE
IMPROVEMENTS PLAN (IIP) SHALL BE REPLACED WITH THE LUAS FROM THE 2025
DEVELOPMENT IMPACT FEE UPDATE, LANO USE ASSUMPTIONS REPORT AS
REVISED SEPTEMBER 30, 2024, AND ENCLOSED AS ATTACHMENT A1.
A TO THE EXTENT REVISED LUAS AFFECT THE MEASUREMENT OF SERVICE 
LEVELS, THE SERVICE LEVELS IN EACH IIP SHALL BE REPLACED TO ALIGN

City of Phoenix 
2025 Development Impact Fee Update 
LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS REPORT 
 
 
 
 
 
DRAFT 
8-2-2024 
(Revised 9/30/2024) 
 
 
 
Prepared by: 
Business & Strategy Division 
Growth, Infrastructure & Financial Stability SecƟon 
ATTACHMENT A1

1 
 
 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
 
Summary of 
Land Use AssumpƟons 
 
2 
  
 
  
 
Impact Fee Service Area 
Building Blocks 
 
3 
 
 
 
 
EsƟmate Year (2025) 
Land Use AssumpƟons  
 
4 
 
 
 
 
 10-Year (2035) 
Land Use AssumpƟons 
 
4 
 
 
 
 
15-Year (2040) 
Land Use AssumpƟons 
 
5 
 
 
 
 
Buildout (HypotheƟcal) 
Land Use AssumpƟons 
 
5

2 
 
SUMMARY OF LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS 
The land use assumpƟons detailed in this report provide the foundaƟon for evaluaƟng the future 
demand for public services for which the city collects Development Impact Fees (DIF) and Water 
Resources AcquisiƟon Fees (WRAF). 
 
Land use assumpƟons describe future development in terms of type, size, locaƟon and relaƟve Ɵming. 
ResidenƟal development has been divided into single-family and mulƟfamily categories and measured 
in terms of dwelling units. Non-residenƟal development land use is divided into five categories (retail, 
office, industrial, public and other) measured by structure size or floor area, where 1,000 square feet 
of floor area is equal to one non-residenƟal development unit. Future development unit values for the 
City of Phoenix have been derived from county-wide populaƟon forecasts prepared by the Arizona 
State Demographer’s Office and metro-area employment forecasts prepared by the University of 
Arizona. New dwelling units and non-residenƟal space have been allocated geographically throughout 
the city to project future development within development impact fee service areas. The forecasted 
development units summarized in this report were prepared by Applied Economics, LLC, a local 
economic research firm. For a more detailed descripƟon of data sources and methods please see 
supplemental report: Growth Projections and Land Use Assumptions 2024 Update, Applied Economics, 
July 12, 2024. 
 
For this update, growth projecƟons have been prepared to project demand for necessary public 
services for the ten-year period from 2025 to 2035. 
 
• 
ResidenƟal development has been esƟmated using the 2022 Maricopa County medium-series 
populaƟon projecƟons prepared by the State Demographer’s Office within the Arizona Office 
of Economic Opportunity. Down-scaling to Phoenix impact fee service areas and converƟng 
populaƟon to single family and mulƟfamily units was performed by Applied Economics, LLC. 
 
• 
Non-residenƟal development has been esƟmated based on 2023 metro-area employment by 
industry data provided by the University of Arizona. Down scaling to Phoenix impact fee 
service areas and converƟng employment to non-residenƟal development units was 
performed by Applied Economics, LLC. 
 
For all esƟmaƟons, the data is provided at the impact fee area “building block” level.

3 
 
IMPACT FEE SERVICE AREA BUILDING BLOCKS 
 
Land use assumpƟons have been summarized in geographic building blocks that can be aggregated to 
the impact fee service areas applicable to each impact fee program. The impact fee service areas 
described in this report are based on the areas established in previous plans. The only notable change 
is a proposed ‘citywide’ impact fee service area for Water Treatment and Wastewater Treatment that 
would be assessed in the ‘Balance of City’ area. 
 
The following table displays how the impact fee “building block” areas are combined to make 
designated impact fee service areas for each fee category. The building block geographies are provided 
on Map #1 Impact Fee Service Area Maps, September 19, 2024 or as amended. 
 
Impact Fee Category 
Impact Fee Service Area 
Building Block 
Fire Protection, 
Police, 
Parks, 
Library 
Northwest 
Northwest & Deer Valley 
Northeast 
Northeast & Paradise Ridge 
Southwest 
Estrella N, Estrella S, 
Laveen W & Laveen E 
Ahwatukee 
Ahwatukee 
Major Arterials 
Northern 
Northwest, Deer Valley, 
Northeast & Paradise Ridge 
Southwest 
Estrella N, Estrella S, 
Laveen W & Laveen E 
Storm Drainage 
Paradise Ridge 
Paradise Ridge 
Estrella 
Estrella N & Estrella S 
Laveen 
Laveen W & Laveen E 
Water Distribution 
Northern 
Northwest, Deer Valley, 
Northeast, & Paradise Ridge 
Southern 
Estrella N, Estrella S, Laveen W, 
Laveen E, & Ahwatukee 
Wastewater Collection 
Northern - WW 
Northwest, Northeast 
& Paradise Ridge 
Estrella South 
Estrella South 
Wastewater Treatment 
North of CAP Canal 
Northwest, Northeast, 
& Paradise Ridge  
South of CAP Canal 
Deer Valley, Balance of City, 
Estrella N, Estrella S, Laveen W, 
Laveen E, & Ahwatukee 
Water Treatment 
Citywide 
All ‘Building Blocks’ 
& Balance of City 
Water Resources Acquisition 
Off-Project 
Off-Project 
On-Project 
On-Project

4 
 
LAND USE ASSUMPTION QUANTITIES BY BUILDING BLOCK 
 
It is necessary to esƟmate development units at the beginning of the planning horizon. For this update 
the starƟng point or “esƟmate year” is assumed to be 2025. At the Ɵme Applied Economics, LLC, 
iniƟated their study the best available data for exisƟng development units was for 2023. The 2025 
esƟmated development units are used to calculate current Levels of Service (LOS) for certain impact 
fee categories. 
 
Estimate Year Land Use Assumptions (2025) 
  
(Dwelling Units) 
  
(000's Square Feet) 
  
SFR 
MFR 
  
Retail 
Office 
Industrial  
Public 
Other 
Northwest 
10,004 
5,108 
  
2,152 
263 
4,059 
1,534 
478 
Deer Valley 
5,195 
1,558 
  
5 
0 
27 
188 
12 
Northeast 
20,790 
5,680 
  
2,300 
1,150 
1,556 
1,805 
1,397 
Paradise Ridge 
262 
4,130 
  
1,542 
1,803 
0 
108 
2,244 
Estrella North 
2,353 
657 
  
1,774 
12 
47,308 
621 
143 
Estrella South 
17,128 
1,379 
  
1,623 
9 
18,433 
1,552 
34 
Laveen West 
22,435 
1,420 
  
2,677 
118 
1,088 
2,135 
552 
Laveen East 
6,851 
575 
  
882 
7 
285 
597 
35 
Ahwatukee 
24,405 
9,913 
  
3,015 
1,661 
1,201 
2,316 
1,135 
Balance of City 
295,911 
244,960 
  
80,067 
110,563 
114,560 
86,994 
57,187 
Citywide 
405,334 
275,380 
  
96,037 
115,586 
188,517 
97,850 
63,217 
Off-Project 
209,093 
105,345 
  
40,821 
38,736 
49,216 
24,103 
25,394 
On-Propject 
196,264 
170,035 
  
55,217 
76,851 
139,301 
73,748 
37,879 
 
10-Year Land Use Assumptions (2035) 
 
  
Dwelling Units 
  
000's Square Feet 
  
SFR 
MFR 
  
Retail 
Office 
Industrial  
Public 
Other 
Northwest 
13,047 
10,822 
  
3,052 
2,388 
11,509 
1,644 
716 
Deer Valley 
5,281 
1,558 
  
5 
0 
27 
316 
12 
Northeast 
33,783 
10,696 
  
3,221 
2,512 
1,819 
1,818 
1,754 
Paradise Ridge 
3,200 
5,236 
  
1,644 
3,934 
0 
800 
2,676 
Estrella North 
2,765 
1,002 
  
1,828 
12 
51,802 
621 
143 
Estrella South 
20,640 
3,221 
  
2,042 
61 
22,292 
1,904 
34 
Laveen West 
25,639 
4,569 
  
3,759 
433 
3,144 
2,135 
1,384 
Laveen East 
7,887 
715 
  
882 
7 
285 
597 
35 
Ahwatukee 
25,195 
9,913 
  
3,015 
1,661 
1,201 
2,316 
1,135 
Balance of City 
300,735 
271,170 
  
85,080 
116,414 
123,898 
87,984 
58,846 
Citywide 
438,172 
318,902 
  
104,528 
127,422 
215,977 
100,135 
66,735 
Off-Project 
234,060 
131,988 
  
45,261 
47,335 
60,589 
25,163 
26,680 
On-Propject 
204,135 
186,914 
  
59,267 
80,088 
155,388 
74,972 
40,110

5 
 
15-Year Land Use Assumptions (2040) 
 
  
Dwelling Units 
  
000's Square Feet 
  
SFR 
MFR 
  
Retail 
Office 
Industrial  
Public 
Other 
Northwest 
15,286 
13,179 
  
3,600 
4,138 
12,509 
1,644 
1,021 
Deer Valley 
5,521 
1,558 
  
5 
0 
27 
316 
12 
Northeast 
39,090 
12,589 
  
3,437 
4,115 
1,819 
1,930 
2,022 
Paradise Ridge 
4,725 
5,471 
  
1,701 
4,303 
0 
989 
2,676 
Estrella North 
2,904 
1,002 
  
1,828 
12 
51,926 
621 
143 
Estrella South 
21,112 
3,507 
  
2,222 
61 
23,476 
2,009 
34 
Laveen West 
25,759 
5,375 
  
4,128 
599 
4,244 
2,135 
1,498 
Laveen East 
7,907 
715 
  
882 
7 
285 
597 
35 
Ahwatukee 
26,121 
9,913 
  
3,015 
1,661 
1,201 
2,316 
1,135 
Balance of City 
301,164 
280,493 
  
88,093 
119,305 
127,760 
88,459 
59,662 
Citywide 
449,589 
333,802 
  
108,911 
134,201 
223,247 
101,016 
68,238 
Off-Project 
244,762 
144,550 
  
46,582 
52,547 
63,398 
25,465 
27,323 
On-Propject 
204,850 
189,252 
  
62,329 
81,655 
159,849 
75,551 
40,972 
 
 
 
Buildout Land Use Assumptions (Full Absorption of Undeveloped Land within Building Block Areas) 
 
  
Dwelling Units 
  
000's Square Feet 
  
SFR 
MFR 
  
Retail 
Office 
Industrial  
Public 
Other 
Northwest 
61,155 
33,533 
  
11,655 
17,177 
42,984 
3,789 
1,541 
Deer Valley 
5,534 
1,623 
  
5 
0 
27 
316 
13 
Northeast 
54,850 
16,924 
  
7,436 
11,444 
3,568 
3,383 
2,389 
Paradise Ridge 
5,355 
6,734 
  
3,360 
16,140 
0 
989 
2,676 
Estrella North 
3,205 
1,002 
  
1,947 
12 
51,979 
621 
143 
Estrella South 
22,551 
3,649 
  
2,452 
61 
25,559 
2,253 
56 
Laveen West 
26,158 
6,257 
  
5,549 
2,267 
7,058 
2,385 
2,411 
Laveen East 
8,768 
715 
  
934 
7 
285 
607 
51 
Ahwatukee 
26,941 
9,913 
  
3,325 
1,661 
1,201 
2,316 
1,135 
Balance of City 
302,008 
291,038 
  
97,458 
126,908 
141,371 
89,821 
61,438 
Citywide 
516,525 
371,388 
  
134,121 
175,677 
274,032 
106,480 
71,853 
Off-Project 
310,372 
177,104 
  
62,507 
89,740 
102,070 
29,472 
28,391 
On-Propject 
206,819 
194,284 
  
72,287 
85,937 
171,962 
77,008 
43,581

Development Impact
Fee Category
Property
Taxes1
Sales
Taxes2
Wtr & Wwtr
Rates3 
Total
(Rounded)
Fire Protection
NW & DV
$79.28
$0.00
N/A
$79.00
NE & PR
$46.18
$0.00
N/A
$46.00
SW
$46.18
$18.79
N/A
$65.00
AHW
$46.18
$19.69
N/A
$66.00
Police
NW & DV
$67.99
$37.23
N/A
$105.00
NE & PR
$67.99
$37.23
N/A
$105.00
SW
$67.99
$37.23
N/A
$105.00
AHW
$67.99
$37.23
N/A
$105.00
Parks
NW & DV
$87.96
$198.40
N/A
$286.00
NE & PR
$102.31
$198.40
N/A
$301.00
SW
$94.09
$198.40
N/A
$292.00
AHW
$87.96
$198.40
N/A
$286.00
Library
NW & DV
$53.16
N/A
N/A
$53.00
NE & PR
$66.65
N/A
N/A
$67.00
SW
$63.57
N/A
N/A
$64.00
AHW
$53.16
N/A
N/A
$53.00
Major Arterials
Northern (NW, DV, NE, PR)
N/A
N/A
N/A
$0.00
Storm Drainage
Paradise Ridge
N/A
N/A
N/A
$0.00
Estrella (EN & ES)
N/A
N/A
N/A
$0.00
Laveen (LW & LE)
N/A
N/A
N/A
$0.00
Water Transmission
Northern
N/A
N/A
$255.56
$256.00
Southern
N/A
N/A
$255.56
$256.00
Water Treatment
Citywide
N/A
N/A
$1,518.06
$1,518.00
WW Collection
Northern (NW, NE, PR)
N/A
N/A
$242.58
$243.00
Estrella South
N/A
N/A
$242.58
$243.00
WW Treatment
North of CAP (NW, NE, PR)
N/A
N/A
$143.96
$144.00
South of CAP (DV, Bal, SW, AHW)
N/A
N/A
$143.96
$144.00
Water Resources Acquisition
Off-Project
N/A
N/A
N/A
$0.00
On-Project
N/A
N/A
N/A
$0.00
SUMMARY OF ALTERNATIVE REVENUE OFFSETS
($/EDU)
Note: Summary table from City of Phoenix 2025 Development Impact Fee Update, Alternative Reveneu Offsets Report, December 4, 2024.
1) Property Taxes includes General Obligation bond projects backed by secondary property taxes.
2) Sales Taxes includes bond projects backed by excise taxes and qualifying park projects funded with PPPI tax revenue.
3) Wtr & Wwtr Rates includes revenue bond projects backed by water and sewer rate revenue.
ATTACHMENT A2

Development Impact
Fee Category
Amount
Fire Protection
NW & DV
$0.00
NE & PR
$0.00
SW
$0.00
AHW
$0.00
Police
NW & DV
$0.00
NE & PR
$0.00
SW
$0.00
AHW
$0.00
Parks
NW & DV
$824.00
NE & PR
$597.00
SW
$0.00
AHW
$980.00
Library
NW & DV
$0.00
NE & PR
$69.00
SW
$0.00
AHW
$513.00
Major Arterials
Northern (NW, DV, NE, PR)
$0.00
Southern (EN, ES, LW, LE)
$1,365.00
Storm Drainage
Paradise Ridge
$0.00
Estrella (EN & ES)
$0.00
Laveen (LW & LE)
$0.00
Water Transmission
Northern
$317.00
Southern
$496.00
Water Treatment
Citywide
$975.00
WW Collection
Northern (NW, NE, PR)
$241.00
Estrella South
$449.00
WW Treatment
North of CAP (NW, NE, PR)
$241.00
South of CAP (DV, Bal, SW, AHW)
$241.00
Water Resources Acquisition
Off-Project
$207.00
On-Project
$0.00
SUMMARY OF FUND BALANCE ADJUSTMENTS
($/EDU)
Notes: Summary table from City of Phoenix 2025 Development Impact Fee Update, Fund Balance Adjustment Report, December 4, 2024. Fund 
balances from Schedule A, City of Phoenix Annual Development Impact Fee Report for Fiscal Year Ended June 30,2024 , August 16, 2024.
ATTACHMENT A3

kimley-horn.com
1001 West Southern Avenue, Suite 131, Mesa, AZ 85210 
480.207.2666 
 
MEMORANDUM 
To: 
Adam Miller 
From: 
Joel Varner, P.E. 
 
Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc. 
Date: 
November 22, 2024 
Subject: 
City of Phoenix Impact Fee Update 2023 – Asphalt Pavement Cost Adjustment 
The purpose of this memorandum is to summarize the sources and methods used for deriving the unit cost 
for Asphalt Concrete Pavement included as a part of the City of Phoenix’s Impact Fee Update 2023, and to 
provide a recommendation for an adjustment to the pavement cost. 
To develop the recommended pavement unit costs, we collected available bid documents for arterial street 
constructed projects provided by the City and obtained from other municipalities. Additional bid price data 
was obtained from both Arizona Department of Transportation’s E2C2 bid price database and Maricopa 
County Department of Transportation’s Cost Estimate Viewer website. Projects bid within 2021 through 2023 
were selected, and an inflation factor was applied to projects bid in 2021 and 2022 to adjust them to 2023 
prices. The bid prices were then averaged together to create a single unit price.  
The pavement structural section utilized for the comparison was 7.5-inches of asphalt concrete (1.5-inches 
of D-½” Surface Course 6.5-inches of A-1½” Base Course installed in two lifts) over prepared subgrade. Two 
layers of bituminous tack coat were assumed. This pavement structural section matches previous City of 
Phoenix Impact Fee updates. It should be noted that the 2023 version of the City of Phoenix Street Planning 
and Design Guidelines recommends a minimum pavement structural section of 9.0-inches over prepared 
subgrade, however the thinner section 7.5-inch thick section was utilized for consistency. 
A review of the unit prices was recently conducted in response to received questions about their derivation. 
During this review, out team identified outlier bid prices that had the effect of increasing the recommended 
unit price for subgrade preparation and asphalt pavement above the typical average. We believe removing 
these outlier bid prices will provide a unit price that is more in line with typical bid prices observed in the last 
three years. Kimley-Horn reviewed the unit prices for other cost elements, and confirmed the outliers only 
affected the unit costs for subgrade preparation and asphalt pavement. We believe this is an isolated 
occurrence that does not have an effect on other updates made as a part of this impact fee update process. 
Below is a summary of the revised recommended unit prices: 
 
Subgrade Preparation: $0.44 per square foot ($4.00 per square yard) 
 
Asphalt Pavement: $6.68 per square foot ($60.12 per square yard) 
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ATTACHMENT A4