Attachment A - EIR Fourth Quarter
City of Phoenix — Economic Development and Equity Subcommittee (2021-10-27)
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Phoenix Economic Indicators Report Fourth Quarter FY2020-21 Table of Contents Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport Total Passengers ….. 1 City Sales Tax - Restaurants/Bars ….………………… 5 Water Service Accounts ……………………………..….. 1 City Sales Tax - Contracting …….………………………. 6 New Home Construction Permits Issued ……….... 2 State Sales Tax - Total ………………………………….. 6 New Multifamily Units Permitted …………………..... 2 State Vehicle License Tax ………………………………. 7 Total Valued of Permitted Activity …………………... 3 Phoenix Primary Net Assessed Value …….….….. 7 Solid Waste - Residential Customer Growth …..... 3 Phoenix Full Cash Value …………………….…………… 8 City Sales Tax - Total .…..…………………………………. 4 Phoenix Median Household Income ……………… 8 City Sales Tax - Retail ………………………………………. 4 Phoenix Unemployment Rate ….…….………….…… 9 City Sales Tax - Hotel/Motel ……………………………. 5 Phoenix Labor Force Participation …….……….….. 9 Executive Summary Economic indicators, such as those included in this report, provide measurements for evaluating the health of our economy, the latest business cycles, and how consumers are spending and generally faring. Included in this report are aviation, utility, new develop- ment, state and local sales tax, vehicle sales, property values, and employment statistics. Each statistic is shown through a graph presenting current year-to-date data (for data available on a monthly basis), prior year-to-date, prior three year average of year-to-date data, and peak year data (if current year is not the peak year) for a quarter of the current fiscal year (July 1 - June 30). Each indicator has its own peak year where performance was at its highest since 2000. Each graph is accompanied by a description of the signifi- cance of the measure as an economic indicator, and a statement about the current year data in relation to prior years. Many of the statistics are measured on a monthly basis, but a few are only available quarterly or annually. ATTACHMENT A Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport Total Passengers Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year -22.9% 3 Year Avg. -35.5% Peak Year (FY 2018-19) -41.2% Totals CYTD 26,780,000 PYTD 34,726,000 3YRAVG 41,532,000 Peak Year (FY 2018-19) 45,531,000 Total Single-Family Water Service Accounts Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 0.9% 3 Year Avg. 1.7% Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A Totals CYTD 437,743 PYTD 434,023 3YRAVG 430,391 Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A Significance: The number of passengers utilizing the Phoenix Sky Harbor airport can be an indicator for regional tourism and business activity. Current Year: Passenger activity has been significantly negatively impacted due to COVID-19. Passenger Traffic through June decreased 22.9% as compared with the previous year and is 35.5% lower than the three year average. Industry data lags two months. Significance: Single-family water services account growth is a measurement indicating revenue generated through services provided by the Water Services Department. The number of water service accounts can be an indicator of changes in population and development. Current Year: Water service accounts reflect a consistent upward trend in residential customers. 425,000 427,000 429,000 431,000 433,000 435,000 437,000 439,000 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000 50,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Peak Year (FY2018-19) Page 1 Total New Home Construction Permits Issued Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 14.0% 3 Year Avg. 16.0% Peak Year (FY 2004-05) -61.9% Totals CYTD 4,538 PYTD 3,980 3YRAVG 3,911 Peak Year (FY 2004-05) 11,924 New Multifamily Units Permitted Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year -14.3% 3 Year Avg. 0.4% Peak Year (FY 2019-20) -9.3% Totals CYTD 6,453 PYTD 7,526 3YRAVG 6,426 Peak Year (FY 2019-20) 7,526 Significance: New single family homes are a key economic indicator, reflecting local population growth as well as spill over benefits to other sectors of the economy such as demand for construction labor/materials, retail, manufacturing and utilities. Current Year: Planning and Development experienced a 14% growth in residential construction permits in 2020-21 over the prior year and 16% over the 3 year average. They are projecting continued growth into the next fiscal year based on recent population growth in Maricopa County. Significance: New multi-family construction is a key economic indicator of local population growth or shifts in housing preferences and its spill over benefits to other sectors of the economy such as demand for construction labor/materials, retail, manufacturing and utilities. Current Year: Planning and Development experienced a 14.3% decrease in multi-family residential permits in 2020-21 over the prior year and a growth of 0.4% over the 3 year average. They are projecting irregular growth due to the number of large projects currently being built by out of state developers and local developers not wanting to saturate the market within the infill area. Plans under review will continue to add units as local developers move forward with projects that attract a different market than the infill projects. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Peak Year (FY2004-05) 400 1,400 2,400 3,400 4,400 5,400 6,400 7,400 8,400 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Page 2 Total Value of Permitted Activity Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 21.7% 3 Year Avg. 19.6% Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A Totals CYTD $6,858,330,901 PYTD $5,634,934,127 3YRAVG $5,733,465,875 Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A Solid Waste - Residential Customer Growth Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 0.8% 3 Year Avg. 1.7% Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A Totals CYTD 409,954 PYTD 406,689 3YRAVG 403,098 Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A Significance: The valuation of new construction is an indicator of one facet of Phoenix's economic strength because it reflects the permit value of new construction projects. Current Year: Planning and Development experienced a 21.7% increase in permit valuation in 2020-21 over the prior year and a 19.6% increase over the 3 year average. They are projecting slightly increasing permit valuation for 2021-22 versus the prior year due to state projections of population growth in Maricopa County. Significance: Residential customer growth is an indicator of one facet of Phoenix's economic strength because it reflects the growth in households. The graph shows a consistent upward trend in the count of Solid Waste residential customers. Current Year: The number of residential living units being serviced by the Public Works Department Solid Waste Division is consistently trending upwards. This is a new measure being tracked. Solid Waste staff recently updated their methodology used to track this measure, resulting in a retroactive update for the numbers for November and December 2020. $400,000,000 $1,400,000,000 $2,400,000,000 $3,400,000,000 $4,400,000,000 $5,400,000,000 $6,400,000,000 $7,400,000,000 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD 398,000 400,000 402,000 404,000 406,000 408,000 410,000 412,000 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Page 3 City Sales Tax - Total Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 10.1% 3 Year Avg. 14.3% Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A Totals CYTD $1,076,972,000 PYTD $978,123,000 3YRAVG $942,076,667 Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A City Sales Tax - Retail Significance: Retail sales tax represents retail sales, not including the sales tax on food. Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 19.1% 3 Year Avg. 29.0% Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A Totals CYTD $495,479,000 PYTD $416,153,000 3YRAVG $384,069,000 Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A Significance: City sales tax (all funds including: General Fund, T2050, Public Safety, 3PI, Convention Center, Sports Facilities, and Capital Construction) represents overall local economic activity related to taxable sales. Current Year: City sales tax collections were negatively impacted by COVID-19 primarily in the hotel/motel, restaurants/bars, and amusement sales tax categories. However, this was offset by additional retail sales tax collected from online retailers which became effective October 2019, and overall economic growth. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. Current Year: City retail sales tax has experienced positive growth throughout the COVID-19 pandemic due to shifts in consumer spending to taxable goods and overall growth in the economy. Current year growth also accounts for additional retail sales tax collected from online retailers which became effective October 2019. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $50,000,000 $250,000,000 $450,000,000 $650,000,000 $850,000,000 $1,050,000,000 $1,250,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $22,000,000 $72,000,000 $122,000,000 $172,000,000 $222,000,000 $272,000,000 $322,000,000 $372,000,000 $422,000,000 $472,000,000 $522,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Page 4 City Sales Tax - Hotel/Motel Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year -25.8% 3 Year Avg. -32.9% Peak Year (FY 2018-19) -38.7% Totals CYTD $31,898,000 PYTD $42,975,000 3YRAVG $47,559,333 Peak Year (FY 2018-19) $52,049,000 City Sales Tax - Restaurants/Bars Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year -2.6% 3 Year Avg. -5.8% Peak Year (FY 2018-19) -9.7% Totals CYTD $81,354,000 PYTD $83,530,000 3YRAVG $86,330,333 Peak Year (FY 2018-19) $90,114,000 Significance: Hotel/Motel sales tax revenue represents taxable sales for these businesses and is an indicator of tourism activity. Current Year: Hotel/motel sales tax collections has been negatively impacted by COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. Significance: Restaurants/Bars sales tax revenue represents taxable sales for these businesses and is an indicator of economic strength, population growth, and tourism. Current Year: Restaurants/bars sales tax collections has been negatively impacted by COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $1,000,000 $11,000,000 $21,000,000 $31,000,000 $41,000,000 $51,000,000 $61,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Peak Year (FY2018-19) JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $4,500,000 $14,500,000 $24,500,000 $34,500,000 $44,500,000 $54,500,000 $64,500,000 $74,500,000 $84,500,000 $94,500,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Peak Year (FY2018-19) Page 5 City Sales Tax - Contracting Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 9.6% 3 Year Avg. 28.8% Peak Year (FY 2006-07) -2.6% Totals CYTD $95,965,000 PYTD $87,560,000 3YRAVG $74,497,667 Peak Year (FY 2006-07) $98,556,000 State Sales Tax - Total Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 17.1% 3 Year Avg. 22.5% Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A Totals CYTD $201,292,000 PYTD $171,926,000 3YRAVG $164,330,000 Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A Significance: Contracting sales tax revenue presents activity in the commercial, retail and residential construction markets. Current Year: Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. Significance: State shared sales tax revenues are distributed to cities and towns based on relative population share in Arizona. The population share in FY 2000-01 was 33.7%. The population share as of June 2021 was 29.03%. Current Year: State sales tax collections were negatively impacted by COVID-19 primarily in the hotel/motel, restaurants/bars, and amusement sales tax categories. However, this was offset by additional retail sales tax collected from online retailers which became effective October 2019, and overall economic growth. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $5,000,000 $15,000,000 $25,000,000 $35,000,000 $45,000,000 $55,000,000 $65,000,000 $75,000,000 $85,000,000 $95,000,000 $105,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Peak Year (FY2006-07) JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $11,000,000 $31,000,000 $51,000,000 $71,000,000 $91,000,000 $111,000,000 $131,000,000 $151,000,000 $171,000,000 $191,000,000 $211,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Page 6 State Vehicle License Tax Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 13.2% 3 Year Avg. 15.3% Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A Totals CYTD $79,768,303 PYTD $70,484,060 3YRAVG $69,159,471 Peak Year (FY 2020-21) N/A Phoenix Primary Net Assessed Valuation Calendar Year Compared to: Prior Year 6.3% 3 Year Avg. 5.9% Peak Year (TY 2010) -7.9% Totals TY 2021 $14,800,877,416 TY 2020 $13,923,185,918 3YRAVG $13,982,360,232 Peak Year (TY 2010) $16,063,200,689 Significance: State shared vehicle license tax revenues are distributed to cities and towns in Maricopa County based on their relative population share of Maricopa County. The City of Phoenix's population share in FY 2000-01 was 48.51%, and the population share as of June 2021 was 40.41%. Current Year: Year-to-Date vehicle license tax collections reflect adjustments made by the Arizona Department of Transportation due to a new system implementation, and reflect prior year collections in the current year, causing revenue collections to be artificially inflated. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. Current Year: Tax year 2021 (FY 2021-22) Primary NAV grew by 6.3% over the prior year; 2.3% is attributable to new property and 4.0% is attributable to appreciation in previously-taxed property. Prior-year values have not been adjusted for inflation. Significance: Phoenix's assessed valuation is based on the Primary Net Assessed Value (Primary NAV), which beginning in FY 2015-16, is the single value used for calculating both Primary Property Taxes and Secondary Property Taxes. The assessed valuation provides an indicator of the basis for City property tax revenue. This statistic is updated once per year, in February. $0 $4,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 $12,000,000,000 $16,000,000,000 $20,000,000,000 3YR AVG TY 2019 TY 2020 TY 2021 Peak Year (TY 2010) Series1 TY = Tax Year JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $0 $10,000,000 $20,000,000 $30,000,000 $40,000,000 $50,000,000 $60,000,000 $70,000,000 $80,000,000 $90,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Page 7 Phoenix Full Cash Value Calendar Year Compared to: Prior Year 9.0% 3 Year Avg. 9.1% Peak Year (TY 2021) N/A Totals 2021 $215,741,892,809 2020 $198,012,408,578 3YRAVG $197,724,137,082 Peak Year (TY 2021) N/A Phoenix Median Household Income Calendar Year Compared to: Prior Year 4.9% 3 Year Avg. 4.9% Peak Year (CY 2008) -0.1% Totals 2019 $57,459 2018 $54,765 3YRAVG $54,768 Peak Year (CY 2008) $57,507 Significance: This measure includes the income of the householder and all other individuals 16 years of age and older in the household. Median income is the amount that divides the income distribution into two equal groups, half at income levels above that amount, and half at income levels below that amount. Current Year: The increase in 2019 over prior years is an indication of moderate recovery from the 2008 recession and is close to the peak year in 2008. Data is from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates. Peak year reflects the highest since 2005 (the oldest readily available data set). The most recent ACS Five-Year Estimate data is from 2019. Significance: Full cash value is an indicator of both commercial and residential property values, an important indicator of one facet of economic health. This statistic is updated once per year, in February, and lags market conditions by approximately one year. Due to assessed valuation growth limits and statutory changes in assessment ratios, however, trends in full cash value do not correlate to trends in the tax base for property taxes. Current Year: Tax year 2021 (FY 2021-22) full cash value grew by 9.0% over the prior year. Growth rates were led by class four property (predominantly apartments, other residential rental, and secondary residences) growth of 14.3%. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 3YR AVG CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 Peak Year (CY 2008) CY = Calendar year $- $40,000,000,000 $80,000,000,000 $120,000,000,000 $160,000,000,000 $200,000,000,000 $240,000,000,000 3YR AVG TY 2019 TY 2020 2021 (Peak Year) Series1 TY = Tax Year Page 8 Phoenix Unemployment Rate Calendar Year Compared to: Prior Year 90.5% 3 Year Avg. 46.3% Peak Year (CY 2009) -25.2% Totals 2020 8.0% 2019 4.2% 3YRAVG 5.5% Peak Year (CY 2009) 10.7% Phoenix Labor Force Participation Calendar Year Compared to: Prior Year 0.7% 3 Year Avg. 0.8% Peak Year (CY 2005) -4.7% Totals 2019 67.2% 2018 66.7% 3YRAVG 66.7% Peak Year (CY 2005) 70.5% Significance: This measures the percentage of the population (16 years of age and older) that is in the labor force. The labor force is defined as the total population of employed and unemployed people (16 years of age and older). People are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work. Current Year: The labor force participation rate slightly increased from 2018 to 2019, indicating an increase in the percentage of the population that is either employed or unemployed and actively looking for work. Data is from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates. Peak year reflects the highest since 2005 (the oldest readily available data set). The most recent ACS Five-Year Estimate data is from 2019. Significance: This measures the percentage of the labor force that are unemployed. Those individuals (16 years of age and older) who do not have a job but are available for work, except in the case of temporary illness, and actively seeking work during the week including the 12th of the month. The only exceptions to these criteria are individuals who are waiting to be recalled from a layoff and individuals waiting to report to a new job within 30 days—these, too, are considered unemployed. This statistic is updated once per year, in April. Current Year: The unemployment rate in 2020 reflects nationwide impacts of COVID-19. Data is from the United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Peak year reflects the highest since 1990 (the oldest readily available data set). 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 3YR AVG CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 CY 2020 Peak Year (CY 2009) CY = Calendar year 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 3YR AVG CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 Peak Year (CY 2005) CY = Calendar year Page 9