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Phoenix Economic Indicators Report Third Quarter FY 2022-23 Table of Contents Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport Total Passengers ….. 1 City Sales Tax - Restaurants/Bars ….………………… 5 Water Service Accounts ……………………………..….. 1 City Sales Tax - Contracting …….………………………. 6 New Home Construction Permits Issued ……….... 2 State Sales Tax - Total ………………………………….. 6 New Multifamily Units Permitted …………………..... 2 State Vehicle License Tax ………………………………. 7 Total Value of Permitted Activity …………………..... 3 Phoenix Primary Net Assessed Value …….….….. 7 Solid Waste - Residential Customer Growth …..... 3 Phoenix Full Cash Value …………………….…………… 8 City Sales Tax - Total .…..…………………………………. 4 Phoenix Median Household Income ……………… 8 City Sales Tax - Retail ………………………………………. 4 Phoenix Unemployment Rate ….…….………….…… 9 City Sales Tax - Hotel/Motel ……………………………. 5 Phoenix Labor Force Participation …….……….….. 9 Executive Summary Economic indicators, such as those included in this report, provide measurements for evaluating the health of our economy, the latest business cycles, and how consumers are spending and generally faring. Included in this report are aviation, utility, new develop- ment, state and local sales tax, vehicle sales, property values, and employment statistics. Each statistic is shown through a graph presenting current year-to-date data (for data available on a monthly basis), prior year-to-date, prior three year average of year-to-date data, and peak year data for three quarters of the current fiscal year (July 1 - June 30). Each indicator has its own peak year where performance was at its highest since 2000. Each graph is accompanied by a description of the signifi-cance of the measure as an economic indicator, and a statement about the current year data in relation to prior years. Many of the statistics are measured on a monthly basis, but a few are only available quarterly or annually. ATTACHMENT A Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport Total Passengers Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 6.7% 3 Year Avg. 25.7% Peak Year (FY 2018‐19) 3.0% Totals CYTD 34,753,180 PYTD 32,570,000 3YRAVG 27,644,000 Peak Year (FY 2018‐19) 33,751,000 Total Water Service Accounts Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 0.8% 3 Year Avg. 1.3% Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) 0.8% Totals CYTD 443,125 PYTD 439,452 3YRAVG 437,643 Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) 439,452 Significance: The number of passengers utilizing the Phoenix Sky Harbor airport can be an indicator for regional tourism and business activity. Current Year: Passenger traffic increased 6.7% compared to the same time period last fiscal year and is 25.7% higher than the three year average. Industry data lags two months. Significance: Total water service account growth is a measurement indicating revenue generated through services provided by the Water Services Department. The number of water service accounts can be an indicator of changes in population and development. Current Year: Water service accounts continue to reflect an upward trend in residential customers. While most growth has occurred in the single family residential sector, multifamily residential also grew at an increased rate as compared to previous years. 425,000 430,000 435,000 440,000 445,000 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000 50,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Page 1 Total New Home Construction Permits Issued Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year ‐37.7% 3 Year Avg. ‐31.8% Peak Year (FY 2004‐05) ‐74.7% Totals CYTD 2,306 PYTD 3,701 3YRAVG 3,381 Peak Year (FY 2004‐05) 9,100 New Multifamily Units Permitted Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 57.4% 3 Year Avg. 69.6% Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) 57.4% Totals CYTD 9,728 PYTD 6,181 3YRAVG 5,735 Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) 6,181 Significance: New single family homes are a key economic indicator, reflecting local population growth as well as spill over benefits to other sectors of the economy such as demand for construction labor/materials, retail, manufacturing and utilities. Current Year: Planning and Development experienced a year over year decrease in single family permits issued in the first three quarters of FY2022-23. This decrease was expected as there has been a decline in the number of residential lots submitted for preliminary approval. Significance: New multi-family construction is a key economic indicator of local population growth or shifts in housing preferences and its spill over benefits to other sectors of the economy such as demand for construction labor/materials, retail, manufacturing and utilities. Current Year: Planning and Development experienced an increase in growth in multifamily housing compared to March of last year. As the demand for housing continues, growth in this sector is anticipated to continue. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Peak Year (FY2004‐05) 400 2,400 4,400 6,400 8,400 10,400 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Page 2 Total Value of Permitted Activity Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 9.2% 3 Year Avg. 38.0% Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) 9.2% Totals CYTD $7,360,546,676 PYTD $6,743,065,676 3YRAVG $5,334,181,766 Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) $6,743,065,676 Solid Waste - Residential Customer Growth Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 0.9% 3 Year Avg. 1.7% Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) 0.9% Totals CYTD 416,076 PYTD 412,424 3YRAVG 409,033 Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) 412,424 Significance: The valuation of new construction can be an indicator of economic strength because it reflects the permit value of new construction projects. Current Year: Planning and Development experienced a 9.2% increase in permit valuation compared to March of last year. The increase is due to growth in the multi-family housing market as well as new largescale commercial projects including the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) project. Valuation is anticipated to remain strong. Significance: Residential customer growth is an indicator of one facet of Phoenix's economic strength because it reflects the growth in households. The graph shows a consistent upward trend in the count of Solid Waste residential customers. Current Year: The number of residential living units being serviced by the Public Works Department Solid Waste Division is consistently trending upwards. $400,000,000 $2,400,000,000 $4,400,000,000 $6,400,000,000 $8,400,000,000 $10,400,000,000 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD 398,000 400,000 402,000 404,000 406,000 408,000 410,000 412,000 414,000 416,000 418,000 JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Page 3 City Sales Tax - Total Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 10.8% 3 Year Avg. 25.7% Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) 10.8% Totals CYTD $1,036,306,000 PYTD $934,921,000 3YRAVG $824,376,333 Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) $934,921,000 City Sales Tax - Retail Significance: Retail sales tax represents retail sales, not including the sales tax on food. Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 4.0% 3 Year Avg. 20.5% Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) 4.0% Totals CYTD $437,980,000 PYTD $421,252,000 3YRAVG $363,370,000 Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) $421,252,000 Current Year: Total City sales tax collections continued to experience positive growth in the third quarter compared to the same time period last fiscal year. The retail category grew at a slower pace, although the contracting, hospitality and leisure categories still have shown substantial increases. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. Current Year: City retail sales tax continues to experience positive growth, albiet at a slower pace. Current year growth also accounts for additional retail sales tax collected from online retailers which became effective October 2019. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. Significance: City sales tax (all funds including: General Fund, T2050, Public Safety, 3PI, Convention Center, Sports Facilities, and Capital Construction) represents overall local economic activity related to taxable sales. JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $50,000,000 $250,000,000 $450,000,000 $650,000,000 $850,000,000 $1,050,000,000 $1,250,000,000 $1,450,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $22,000,000 $122,000,000 $222,000,000 $322,000,000 $422,000,000 $522,000,000 $622,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Page 4 City Sales Tax - Hotel/Motel Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 28.4% 3 Year Avg. 61.8% Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) 28.4% Totals CYTD $52,302,000 PYTD $40,731,000 3YRAVG $32,329,000 Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) $40,731,000 City Sales Tax - Restaurants/Bars Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 15.6% 3 Year Avg. 33.3% Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) 15.6% Totals CYTD $89,123,000 PYTD $77,095,000 3YRAVG $66,866,333 Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) $77,095,000 Significance: Hotel/Motel sales tax revenue represents taxable sales for these businesses and is an indicator of tourism activity. Current Year: Hotel/motel sales tax collections have shown recovery. Third quarter actuals continued this trend and grew significantly compared to the prior fiscal year. This growth may be attributed to several factors, such as the Super Bowl and related events, as well as the impact of inflation leading to an increase in the tax base. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. Significance: Restaurants/Bars sales tax revenue represents taxable sales for these businesses and is an indicator of economic strength, population growth, and tourism. Current Year: Restaurants/bars sales tax collections have shown recovery. Third quarter actuals continued this trend and grew significantly compared to the prior fiscal year. This growth may be attributed to several factors, such as the Super Bowl and related events, as well as the impact of inflation leading to an increase in the tax base. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $1,000,000 $11,000,000 $21,000,000 $31,000,000 $41,000,000 $51,000,000 $61,000,000 $71,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $4,500,000 $14,500,000 $24,500,000 $34,500,000 $44,500,000 $54,500,000 $64,500,000 $74,500,000 $84,500,000 $94,500,000 $104,500,000 $114,500,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Page 5 City Sales Tax - Contracting Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 14.4% 3 Year Avg. 31.7% Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) 14.4% Totals CYTD $97,597,000 PYTD $85,340,000 3YRAVG $74,088,000 Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) $85,340,000 State Sales Tax - Total Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 6.6% 3 Year Avg. 21.0% Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) 6.6% Totals CYTD $177,019,000 PYTD $165,982,000 3YRAVG $146,284,000 Peak Year (FY 2021‐22) $165,982,000 Significance: Contracting sales tax revenue presents activity in the commercial, retail and residential construction markets. Current Year: Contracting sales tax collections continued to experience solid growth. Current year-to-date three-quarter actuals are positive and growing compared to the prior fiscal year. The increase might be due to growth in the multi-family housing market and new largescale commercial projects including the TSMC project. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. Significance: State shared sales tax revenues are distributed to cities and towns based on relative population share in Arizona. The population share in FY 2000-01 was 33.72% and the current relative population share was reduced to 27.87% in July 2022 based on Census 2021 data. Current Year: State sales tax collections continued to experience positive growth in the third quarter compared to the same time period last fiscal year. The retail category grew at a slower pace, although the contracting, hospitality and leisure categories still have shown substantial increases. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $5,000,000 $15,000,000 $25,000,000 $35,000,000 $45,000,000 $55,000,000 $65,000,000 $75,000,000 $85,000,000 $95,000,000 $105,000,000 $115,000,000 $125,000,000 $135,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $11,000,000 $31,000,000 $51,000,000 $71,000,000 $91,000,000 $111,000,000 $131,000,000 $151,000,000 $171,000,000 $191,000,000 $211,000,000 $231,000,000 $251,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Page 6 State Vehicle License Tax Current YTD Compared to: Prior Year 0.7% 3 Year Avg. 2.5% Peak Year (FY 2020‐21) ‐1.4% Totals CYTD $59,000,601 PYTD $58,576,494 3YRAVG $57,571,341 Peak Year (FY 2020‐21) $59,841,047 Phoenix Primary Net Assessed Valuation Calendar Year Compared to: Prior Year 5.0% 3 Year Avg. 4.8% Peak Year (TY 2023) 0.0% Totals TY 2022 $15,490,531,934 TY 2021 $14,800,877,416 3YRAVG $15,518,914,067 Peak Year (TY 2023) $16,265,332,852 Current Year: State shared vehicle license tax (VLT) collections started to experience positive growth, which might be attributable to the elimination of the alternative fuel vehicle license tax discount after December 31, 2022. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. Current Year: Tax year 2023 (FY 2023-24) Primary NAV grew by 5.0% over the prior year; 1.9% is attributable to new property and 3.1% is attributable to appreciation in previously-taxed property. Prior-year values have not been adjusted for inflation. Significance: Phoenix assessed valuation is based on the Primary Net Assessed Value (Primary NAV), which beginning in FY 2015-16, is the single value used for calculating both Primary Property Taxes and Secondary Property Taxes. The assessed valuation provides an indicator of the basis for the City property tax revenue. Primary NAV growth year-over-year is limited under the State Constitution and does not match growth in market values. The statistic is updated once per year, in February. Significance: State shared vehicle license tax revenues are distributed to cities and towns in Maricopa County based on their relative population share of Maricopa County. The City of Phoenix's population share in FY 2000-01 was 48.51%, and the population share has been reduced to 38.93% starting from FY 2022-23. $0 $4,000,000,000 $8,000,000,000 $12,000,000,000 $16,000,000,000 $20,000,000,000 3YR AVG TY 2021 TY 2022 TY 2023 (Peak Year) TY = Tax Year JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN $0 $10,000,000 $20,000,000 $30,000,000 $40,000,000 $50,000,000 $60,000,000 $70,000,000 $80,000,000 $90,000,000 Current YTD Prior YTD 3YR AVG YTD Peak Year (FY2020‐21) Page 7 Phoenix Full Cash Value Calendar Year Compared to: Prior Year 26.0% 3 Year Avg. 18.6% Peak Year (TY 2023) 0.0% Totals 2022 $232,423,574,149 2021 $215,741,892,809 3YRAVG $247,029,671,908 Peak Year (TY 2023) $292,923,548,766 Phoenix Median Household Income Calendar Year Compared to: Prior Year 12.3% 3 Year Avg. 9.9% Peak Year (CY 2021) 0.0% Totals 2021 $68,435 2020 $60,914 3YRAVG $62,269 Peak Year (CY 2021) $68,435 Significance: This measure includes the income of the householder and all other individuals 16 years of age and older in the household. Median income is the amount that divides the income distribution into two equal groups, half at income levels above that amount, and half at income levels below that amount. Current Year: Phoenix Median Household Income in 2021 exceeded the previous peak year of 2008 ($57,507). Data is from the U.S. Census Bureau 2021 American Community Survey One-Year Estimates released in September 2022. Peak year reflects the highest since 2005 (the oldest readily available data set). Significance: Full cash value is an indicator of both commercial and residential property values, an important indicator of one facet of economic health. This statistic is updated once per year, in February, and lags market conditions by approximately one year. Due to assessed valuation growth limits and statutory changes in assessment ratios, however, trends in full cash value do not correlate to trends in the tax base for property taxes. Current Year:Tax year 2023 (FY 2023-24) full cash value grew by 26.0% over the prior year. Growth was most impacted by 30.0% appreciation in single- and multi-family residential properties. Prior year values have not been adjusted for inflation. $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 $60,000 $65,000 $70,000 3YR AVG CY 2019 CY 2020 CY 2021 Peak Year (CY 2021) CY = Calendar Year $‐ $40,000,000,000 $80,000,000,000 $120,000,000,000 $160,000,000,000 $200,000,000,000 $240,000,000,000 $280,000,000,000 $320,000,000,000 3YR AVG TY 2021 TY 2022 TY 2023 (Peak Year) Series1 TY = Tax Year Page 8 Phoenix Unemployment Rate Calendar Year Compared to: Prior Year ‐26.1% 3 Year Avg. ‐33.3% Peak Year (CY 2010) ‐64.2% Totals 2022 3.4% 2021 4.6% 3YRAVG 5.1% Peak Year (CY 2010) 9.5% Phoenix Labor Force Participation Calendar Year Compared to: Prior Year ‐0.4% 3 Year Avg. 0.0% Peak Year (CY 2005) ‐4.1% Totals 2021 67.6% 2020 67.9% 3YRAVG 67.6% Peak Year (CY 2005) 70.5% Significance: This measures the percentage of the population (16 years of age and older) that is in the labor force. The labor force is defined as the total population of employed and unemployed people (16 years of age and older). People are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work. Current Year: The labor force participation rate decreased slightly from 2020 to 2021, indicating a decrease in the percentage of the population that is either employed or unemployed and actively looking for work. Data is from the U.S. Census Bureau 2021 American Community Survey One-Year Estimates released in September 2022. Peak year reflects the highest since 2005 (the oldest readily available data set). Significance: This measures the percentage of the labor force that are unemployed. Those individuals (16 years of age and older) who do not have a job but are available for work, except in the case of temporary illness, and actively seeking work in the prior 4 weeks. The only exceptions to these criteria are individuals who are waiting to be recalled from a layoff and individuals waiting to report to a new job within 30 days—these, too, are considered unemployed. This statistic is updated once per year, in April. Current Year: The unemployment rate in 2022 decreased from the prior year which reflected the continued recovery from the pandemic. Data is from the United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Peak year reflects the highest since 1990 (the oldest readily available data set). Data from 2011 through 2022 were revised by the federal government in April 2023. 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 3YR AVG CY 2020 CY 2021 CY 2022 Peak Year (CY 2010) CY = Calendar Year 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 3YR AVG CY 2019 CY 2020 CY 2021 Peak Year (CY 2005) CY = Calendar Year Page 9