CAP Co River Update (Goddard) no notes.pdf

YOUR WATER. YOUR FUTURE.
Terry Goddard
CAWCD Board President
Buckeye City Council

Arizona Water Sources
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Buckeye’s Water Supplies
• CAP – In 2025, Buckeye ordered 2,285 
acre-feet. This water is recharged with 
reclaimed water. 
• In February of 2023, Buckeye approved 
a purchase agreement for one acre of 
land in the Harquahala Valley. The land 
comes with a water right for 5,925 acre-
feet (1.9 billion gallons) of water per year 
for the next 100 years.
• Buckeye is actively expanding its water 
portfolio by acquiring additional water 
rights and exploring other potential 
sources.

Colorado River Basin
• Supplies water to 40 million people
• Provides water to Denver, Las Vegas, 
Los Angeles, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, 
San Diego and Tucson
• Includes 30 Tribes (22 in Arizona)
• Irrigates ~5 million acres of farmland
• Includes large reservoirs that can store 
up to 60 million acre-feet of water
• Generates clean hydropower for the 
Western power grid
• Supports National Parks, wildlife refuges, 
recreation areas and monuments
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CAP Service Area
• More than 80% of Arizona’s 
population (6 million+ people)
• 3 Counties
• Maricopa
• Pinal
• Pima
• 11 tribal nations
• CAP supply is allocated by contract: 
• 54% to municipal/industrial
• 46% to tribes
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Colorado River: Hydrology and Post-
2026 Operations
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Snowpack vs. Runoff
 (% of average)
Snowpack
Runoff 
2020
111%
61%
2021
91%
37%
2022
90%
63%
2023
161%
140%
2024
114%
83%
2025
92%
49%
25 years of Colorado River drought
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1Water Year statistics are based on the 30-year period of record from 1991-2020, Average 1991-2020 – 9.60 maf
Water Year 2026 Forecast1
May Min Prob = 3.01 MAF (31%)
May Most Prob = 3.27 MAF (34%)
May Max Prob = 4.27 MAF (44%)
May 18, 2026 mid-month update
 
3.27 MAF (34%)
0 KAF change since last forecast

41%
Colorado River Water 
Supply Report
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Lake Mead
Lake Powell
Current Elevation 
3,527’
89%
96%
62%
52%
77%
System Contents: 20.19 MAF
As of June 1, 2026
Last Year System Contents: 23.29 MAF
* Change from previous month
Mid-Elevation 
Release 3,575’
25%, 5.72 MAF
29%, 7.68 MAF
Tier 1 Shortage
1,075’
Current Elevation 
1,050’
Current Elevation 
3,528’
Reservoir
Current Change* Maximum
Lake Mead
7.68
- 0.41
26.12
Lake Powell
5.72
+ 0.10
23.31
Flaming Gorge Reservoir
2.83
- 0.14
3.67
Fontenelle Reservoir
0.17
+ 0.02
0.33
Navajo Reservoir
1.02
-0.01
1.65
Blue Mesa Reservoir
0.34
-0.01
0.82
Morrow Point Reservoir
0.10
-0.01
0.12
Crystal Reservoir
0.02
0.00
0.02
Reservoir Capacities (MAF)

Post-2026 Colorado River Operations
• The Guidelines that govern the operation of Lake Powell and 
Lake Mead expire at the end of 2026.
• Bureau of Reclamation initiated a National Environmental Policy 
Act process in June 2023
• The Lower Basin states agree that future operations should: 
• Improve Colorado River reliability over a broad range of future conditions
• Share the risks and benefits of the system within and between the basins
• Improve predictability of reductions to stabilize Lake Mead
• Additional work with stakeholders, water users, and Upper Basin 
interests is needed to reach consensus – and deadlines are 
looming!
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Post-2026 Timeline

The proposal is an integrated, non-severable package that encompasses:
• Lower Basin Reductions
• Intentionally Created Surplus (ICS)
• Establishment of a Tribal Pool
• Additional Lower Basin Conservation
• Lake Powell Releases
• Upper Initial Unit (UIU) Operations
• Infrastructure improvements, including to Glen Canyon Dam, as well as 
development of system projects
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Lower Division States’ Proposal Elements

• Lower Basin reductions of 1.25 million acre-feet annually, allocated:
• Arizona: 760 KAFY
• California: 440 KAFY
• Nevada: 50 KAFY
• Contributions may be reflected through reduced water orders or applying ICS 
subject to limitations
• Prpovided:  If most probable projection of any 24-MS shows Lake Mead < 
1,010’, Reclamation will consult with the Lower Division States for additional 
actions required to protect elevation 975’ (Deadpool)
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Lower Basin Reductions

• Reclamation encouraged the Lower Division States to find a consensus 
proposal and provided constructive input to avoid fatal flaws
• Lower Division States continue to work with Reclamation to refine elements 
of the proposal, including:
• Powell-Mead Releases
• Intentionally Created Surplus
• UIU Releases
• The Proposal preserves Lower Division States’ ability to enforce legal 
rights, including Compact requirements. 
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Summary of Lower Basin proposal

• Since Upper and Lower Basin States have not reached 
consensus on future operating guidelines at this time
• Reclamation is considering a 10-year framework with new 
operational guidelines every 2 years
• Implemented under existing law or consensus agreement(s)
• The Guidelines would be subject to sideboards and principles 
within the range of alternatives analyzed in the forthcoming EIS: 
• Powell- Mead release ranging from 5-12 MAF/Year
• Lower Basin reductions (US only) – Up to 3 MAF per year
• Maximum use of UIU release within their respective RODs
• Powell storage: 3 MAF, Mead storage: 8 MAF
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Preliminary Preferred Alternative Summary

• In the past 12 years the Lower Basin has saved over 8.5 MAF to 
protect Lakes Mead and Powell
• The Lower Division States’ Proposal:
• Continues the creative, active collaboration among Arizona, 
California, and Nevada toward protecting the Colorado River 
System
• Defines operations for the next two years 
• Meets the Purpose and Need of the proposed action
• Collective actions of the Lower Division States provide robust 
protection against deeper cuts but do not guarantee that additional 
actions won’t be necessary 
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Arizona Conclusions

YOUR WATER. YOUR FUTURE.
What’s next? 
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Coalition for Protecting 
Arizona’s Lifeline
Mayors from across Arizona have come 
together to form the Coalition for Protecting 
Arizona’s Lifeline -- advocating and uniting 
Arizona in support of the Colorado River and 
Central Arizona Project’s role in water 
delivery. 
•
Every Mayor in CAP’s three-county 
service area is participating
•
Nine business coalitions have signed on 
thus far
•
Several tribes have also joined

Long-Term Solutions and Partnerships
• Negotiations – Maintaining fair 
share of Colorado River supply
• Augmentation – Finding new water 
supplies
• Conservation Efficiency – Helping 
users with conservation efforts
• Reuse – Supporting studies about 
recycled water
• Recovery – Recovering water stored 
underground
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Recovery
Focusing on efficient ways 
to recover water that has 
been stored underground

Stay Informed!
• Visit and subscribe to CAP’s 
news site – 
KnowYourWaterNews.com
• Enroll in CAP University (visit 
CentralArizonaProject.com and 
search for upcoming dates)
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|
THANK YOU !

• Reclamation should initiate the process early enough to begin UIU releases 
above baseline in early March, beginning in 2027, dependent upon Lake 
Powell projected elevations
• If Lake Powell projected to fall below 3,515’ in the minimum 24-MS, UIU  
releases at least 600 KAF above baseline
• Releases above baseline from UIUs shall be system water and shall not be 
considered operationally neutral for determining operations of Lake Powell
• Recovery of UIU volumes should not occur until the release from Lake Powell 
is at least 8.23 MAF (i.e., Lake Powell elevation is at least 3,565’)
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Operation of the Upper Initial Units (UIUs) of the 
Colorado River Storage Project Act

• Establish a new conservation pool in Lake Mead to ensure the federal 
government can meet trust commitments to Indian Tribes in Arizona
• Tribal Pool will be a federal responsibility
• Arizona tribe(s) will contribute water to the Tribal Pool
• No Lower Division State contribution to the Tribal Pool
• Some existing ICS from the Federal section of the Arizona ICS account 
will be transferred to the Tribal Pool
• Anticipate the contributions to the pool will be ~280 KAF through 2028
• Tribal Pool will be accounted for within the ICS limitations for Arizona and 
will not be operationally neutral
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Tribal Pool

• Lower Division States intend to work to exceed the minimum, if possible, to 
target a cumulative contribution of at least 1 MAF
• Lower Division States’ contributions are contingent on the deployment of 
Federal funding 
• $354M anticipated from the US toward system conservation water
• Cost share between Federal government and Lower Basin
• Potentially contributed water at no cost
• Discounted prices from IRA Bucket 1 Agreements
• Reclamation will account for all additional system conservation separately in 
its Decree Accounting Report and will apply annual evaporation losses of 3% 
to the total volume
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Lower Basin Conservation

3,565'
3,540'
3,500'
       
 To Mead     
       
UIU Recovers     
8.0 MAF
7.0 MAF
8.23+ MAF
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Proposed Powell Operations
Recovery of UIU volumes 
should not occur until the 
release from Lake Powell is at 
least 8.23 MAF
Not to scale
Consultation to protect 3,500'
Releases to Lake Mead will 
be increased to make up for 
Compact deficient releases

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Join Our Efforts
Your voice matters.
•
By joining the coalition, you’re helping protect Arizona’s 
future, national defense efforts, environment, and strong 
business climate.
•
We invite you to sign our pledge of support to be part of this 
effort to protect our water supplies.
•
Visit www.ProtectingArizonasLifeline.org.

CAP Water Education Center
• New accessible space to be built on 
the CAP Headquarters campus to 
offer visitor experiences that explore 
CAP’s:
• History
• Operations
• Impact on Arizona
• Groundbreaking: May 2025
• Will open in 2027
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