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City of Buckeye
Buckeye Transit
Master Plan
Final Report
December 2025
Buckeye Transit Master Plan
Final Report
CITY OF BUCKEYE, ARIZONA
i
Table of Contents
PAGE
1
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1-1
Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 1-1
Background ......................................................................................................................................... 1-1
Summary of Findings ......................................................................................................................... 1-1
Report Organization ........................................................................................................................... 1-3
2
Existing Transit Markets and Needs ............................................................................................... 2-1
Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 2-1
Background ......................................................................................................................................... 2-1
Population, Employment, and Transit Demand .................................................................................. 2-4
Travel Patterns .................................................................................................................................. 2-13
Community Input .............................................................................................................................. 2-16
Summary of Findings ....................................................................................................................... 2-17
3
Existing Transit Services .................................................................................................................. 3-1
Transit Services .................................................................................................................................. 3-2
Valley Metro Vanpool Program ......................................................................................................... 3-4
Community Services Transportation .................................................................................................. 3-5
Summary of Findings ......................................................................................................................... 3-7
4
Future Conditions ............................................................................................................................. 4-1
Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 4-1
Projected Population Density ............................................................................................................. 4-2
Projected Employment Density .......................................................................................................... 4-3
Projected Composite Demand ............................................................................................................ 4-4
Future Developments .......................................................................................................................... 4-5
Summary of Findings ......................................................................................................................... 4-6
5
Transit Strategy ................................................................................................................................ 5-1
Overview ............................................................................................................................................ 5-1
Recommendations .............................................................................................................................. 5-3
Next Steps ............................................................................................. Error! Bookmark not defined.
Longer-Term Opportunties ............................................................................................................... 5-12
Buckeye Transit Master Plan
Final Report
CITY OF BUCKEYE, ARIZONA
ii
Table of Figures
PAGE
Figure 1
Transit Service Types ......................................................................................................... 2-2
Figure 2
Transit Service Models and Land Use Requirements ......................................................... 2-3
Figure 3
City of Buckeye Population Growth 1990–2022................................................................ 2-4
Figure 4
City of Buckeye Population Density (2022) ....................................................................... 2-5
Figure 5
Income Characteristics of the Population in Buckeye, Maricopa County, and State of
Arizona ............................................................................................................................... 2-6
Figure 6
City of Buckeye Low Income Households (Incomes of $40,000 or Less) (2022) ............. 2-7
Figure 7
City of Buckeye Zero-Vehicle Households (2022) ............................................................ 2-8
Figure 8
Percentage of Buckeye Population by Age Group (2022) .................................................. 2-9
Figure 9
City of Buckeye Employment Growth 2005-2021 ........................................................... 2-10
Figure 10
City of Buckeye Employment Density (2021) ................................................................. 2-11
Figure 11
City of Buckeye Composite Transit Demand (2022) ....................................................... 2-12
Figure 12
Buckeye Residents Place of Work (2022) ........................................................................ 2-14
Figure 13
Buckeye Workers Home (Where Buckeye Workers Live) (2022) ................................... 2-15
Figure 14
Summary of Transit Services in Buckeye .......................................................................... 3-1
Figure 15
Valley Metro Fixed Routes that Service City of Buckeye.................................................. 3-2
Figure 16
Route 563 Avondale/Buckeye Express Annual Ridership 2017-2023 ............................... 3-3
Figure 17
Route 685 Ajo/Gila Bend Annual Ridership 2017-2023 .................................................... 3-4
Figure 18
Valley Metro Vanpool Travel Patterns for Buckeye Trips ................................................. 3-5
Figure 19
Meals Delivered by Community Services per Month (2024) ............................................. 3-6
Figure 20
Community Services Senior and Medical Trip Ridership per Month (2024) ..................... 3-7
Figure 21
Estimated Population and Employment Growth in Buckeye (2020–2040) ........................ 4-1
Figure 22
City of Buckeye Estimated 2040 Population Density ........................................................ 4-2
Figure 23
City of Buckeye Estimated 2040 Employment Density ..................................................... 4-3
Figure 24
City of Buckeye Estimated 2040 Transit Composite Demand ........................................... 4-4
Figure 25
Active and Approved Development Projects City of Buckeye (through June 30, 2023) ... 4-5
Figure 26
City of Buckeye Transportation Options ............................................................................ 5-2
Figure 27
Potential Productivity Measures for CSD Service................ Error! Bookmark not defined.
Appendices (Published as Separate File)
Appendix A
Review of Previous Plans and Studies
Appendix B
Market Analysis
Appendix C
Community Engagement Materials (Survey Findings, Surveys, and Meeting Boards)
Appendix D
On-Demand Services Peer Review
Appendix E
Initial Transit Service Concepts
Buckeye Transit Study
Final Report
CITY OF BUCKEYE, ARIZONA
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1 INTRODUCTION
OVERVIEW
The purpose of the transit master plan is to understand the need for and feasibility of transit services in
Buckeye, and to develop an appropriate, effective strategy for providing transportation services both
in the short term (i.e., next three years) and over the longer term (up to 10 years). The transit master
plan is also designed to be complementary to the city’s overall transportation plan. The Transportation
Master Plan, branded as Buckeye in Motion, is scheduled to be complete in Fall, 2025.
BACKGROUND
The City of Buckeye is located on the western edge of Maricopa County, Arizona, approximately 30
miles from downtown Phoenix. It is notable for being one of the fastest growing cities in the United
States over the past 10–15 years, having nearly doubled in size between 2010 (50,870) and 2020
(91,502). As of July 1, 2023, the US Census department lists Buckeye’s population at 108,909
residents. A second notable characteristic is the city’s geographic size, covering 640 square miles—
making it one of the largest cities (by geographic area) in the United States.
In 2016, the City of Buckeye and Valley Metro collaborated to prepare the city’s first Transit Master
Plan. This current plan updates that previous effort and focuses on charting a course for transit service
development in Buckeye. This plan was prepared using a combination of data analysis and community
input to understand population needs and travel patterns. The primary data sources were the U.S.
Census and Locational Based Service (LBS) travel flow data collected from cell phone records and
synthesized to replicate travel flow information from Replica, a private vendor of LBS data.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
There are currently three types of public transportation services available in Buckeye:
1. Transit service operated by Valley Metro (rural route and express bus)
2. Commuter services operated by Valley Metro (vanpool)
3. Transportation services operated by the City of Buckeye’s Community Services Department
(CSD).
Ridership is returning to the Valley Metro services due in part to a growing group of riders, who use
the service regularly. In contrast, the city’s CSD services are consistently oversubscribed. Each of the
services above currently targets different ridership audiences.
The current transit picture, combined with staff, stakeholder and community input, and the analysis of
travel patterns, demographic and planned development data suggests:
1. There is a need for public transportation services in Buckeye that will increase as the city
increases residential and employment density. Low ridership on the existing services reflects
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a combination of the limited amount of service, which makes it inconvenient for many riders,
and the low-density land use patterns in Buckeye, which makes it challenging to walk to/from
bus stops.
2. Commuter services provide access to jobs. The success of the Valley Metro Vanpool program
in Buckeye suggests that people in Buckeye are creative about finding solutions for work trips
beyond driving alone and are open to alternative solutions.
3. Services designed to serve older adults, people with disabilities and people traveling to
medical appointments are successful. Indeed, the existing services are oversubscribed by
those populations. CSD at the City of Buckeye consistently reports that they are unable to
accommodate requests for rides from these populations.
4. The travel flow data from Replica emphasizes the relationship—and connections—between
Buckeye and communities to the east/northeast (Surprise, Avondale, Goodyear, and Phoenix).
Data suggests people frequently travel to neighboring cities for shopping, medical services
and potentially employment.
5. A community survey conducted as part of this study shows that while most respondents did
not report transportation challenges, residents with lower incomes consistently reported
challenges (see Appendix C for detailed survey analysis findings). Indeed, nearly 70% of
survey respondents with low incomes said they had a transportation challenge in the past six
months, with 40% of transportation challenges resulting in missed school, work, or medical
appointments. Survey respondents expressed a strong desire for public transportation but did
not have specific ideas about the type of service.
In Fall 2024, the City of Buckeye started developing a strategy to expand the existing transportation
program operated by CSD to help meet the demand and need for service. This proposal is designed to
efficiently and expeditiously respond to growing needs and provide service for Buckeye’s highest
need residents. This first step towards developing transportation services will expand existing
offerings and prepare the city for future growth.
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REPORT ORGANIZATION
The Transit Master Plan was developed using a combination of qualitative data, including interviews
with City of Buckeye staff and conversations with community members, and quantitative data, such as
transit ridership, community demographic data and peer review data. The Transit Master Plan used
this data to organize the analysis around five chapters, including this introductory section.
Chapter 2: Existing Transit and Needs – summarizes a detailed market analysis that
evaluates the size and distribution of people and jobs in the City of Buckeye together with
existing travel patterns to understand the underlying market for public transit services. It also
includes a summary of findings from community engagement activities conducted in Spring
2024. The full market analysis is included as Appendix B and the engagement materials are
included as Appendix C.
Chapter 3: Available Transportation Services – includes an inventory of transportation
services – including how they work and the productivity of the services – that are currently
available in the City of Buckeye, including services operated by Valley Metro, the regional
transit provider, and the City of Buckeye.
Chapter 4: Future Conditions – reviews planned growth and development over time and
how these changes may or may not impact transportation needs. More detail on the future
market conditions is available in Appendix B, which reports on the market analysis.
Chapter 5: Transit Strategy for Buckeye – highlights recommendations for how Buckeye
may respond and address current transit and transportation service needs.
Buckeye Transit Study
Final Report
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2 EXISTING TRANSIT MARKETS
AND NEEDS
OVERVIEW
Rapid growth and geographic expansion are changing the City of Buckeye and creating new
transportation needs. Changes are introducing opportunities for public transportation solutions beyond
the existing Valley Metro bus routes and transportation service provided by CSD (see Chapter 3).
This chapter evaluates the market for transit services in the City of Buckeye by examining existing
development patterns, community demographics and travel patterns to understand the size and spatial
distribution of public transportation needs. The analysis is based on existing conditions described in
this chapter; future conditions are evaluated in Chapter 4.
BACKGROUND
A transit market analysis is a useful tool to make sure transit services are matched with the underlying
markets and demand for service. The goal is to design and implement services that people want to use.
This means ensuring services are convenient and connect neighborhoods and clusters of people with
the types of services they want and need, like jobs, school, and medical services. Another important
goal of the market analysis is to make sure service levels will be productive and cost-effective for
taxpayers.
There are various ways that public transportation may be operated and provided. While all
communities can benefit from public transportation, service levels must be adjusted to ensure transit
investments are matched with the market. This means that while higher capacity transit modes, like
frequent bus service, may work in densely developed areas (Figure 1), less frequent, lower capacity
services like community shuttles and on-demand services like microtransit may work best in areas
with less density.
National research and data from communities across the United States shows that the need and type of
transit services is determined by a handful of factors related to a community’s growth and
development (see Error! Reference source not found.The most important factors determining the
need for transit service include population and employment density, community socio-economic and
demographic characteristics, and overall travel patterns. This market analysis evaluates the existing
conditions in the City of Buckeye for each of these factors, with the goal of determining needs for
transit services. A full market analysis was conducted and is available in Appendix B; this section
presents a summary of that analysis.
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Figure 1
Transit Service Types
Service Type
Characteristics
Ride-Hailing
Subsidies
Ride-hailing subsidies are discounts provided by a municipality or transit operator for
trips booked directly with a ride-hailing service, like Uber or Lyft. Subsidies provide
mobility and access on an ad hoc, as needed basis. They only work where ride-hailing
services are available.
Demand-
Response
Services
Demand-response service offers curb-to-curb or door-to-door service upon request.
Services are well suited for serving low-density areas and can be provided by a range
of providers, from traditional transit agencies to app-based ride-hailing providers.
Demand-response service includes ADA paratransit service, which operates under
specific FTA guidelines, serving individuals with disabilities and older adults.
Microtransit
Services
Microtransit is an on-demand service in rural or low-density communities and can be
operated directly by the transit agency or contracted with Transportation Network
Companies. Services are typically curb-to-curb or door-to-door within a specified
zone or based around designated “nodes.”
Peak-Only
Routes
Peak-only routes operate during traditional commuter peak periods only, designed
primarily to bring people from residential areas to employment centers. They make
few stops, often at park & ride facilities or transit centers, before traveling non-stop to
the employment center via highways or freeways.
Community
Routes
Community routes serve low-density communities and neighborhoods, providing
local connections or bringing passengers to transit hubs or higher capacity services.
Community routes are exclusively focused on widening geographic service coverage,
or “filling in the gaps” of the transit network. Productivity is typically low.
Local Routes
Local routes also operate in areas of less dense development patterns. They also
typically are anchored at a transit hub, either downtown or at the end of a frequent
route or BRT. These routes offer relatively frequent, simple, and direct service,
usually within neighborhoods or between local destinations. Routes are typically
productive with moderate to strong ridership.
Frequent Routes
Frequent routes are high productivity services that operate along densely developed
primary arterials with 15-minute or better headways during the day on weekdays.
They form the “backbone” of the service network and provide connections to network
hubs.
Bus Rapid
Transit
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) is a high-capacity, high-frequency type of bus service that is
faster and more reliable than traditional bus service, typically due to supportive
infrastructure and station design that allows buses to bypass traffic.
Light Rail
Light rail is a type of rail transit service with lighter trains than large urban commuter
rail systems that usually operate in exclusive right-of-way. They are high-frequency
services that mainly operate in urban cores or areas of high population density or
intense daily activity.
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Figure 2
Transit Service Models and Land Use Requirements
Source: Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates
Buckeye’s current land use and densities (see Figure 4 (population) and Figure 5 (employment) generally fall in
the Low-Density Suburban category, with some pockets of slightly higher Mixed Neighborhood type of density.
National data suggests that the most appropriate types of transit service are likely to be on-demand style
services. As Buckeye grows and development becomes denser and more connected, local bus services will
become more appropriate.
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POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT,
AND TRANSIT DEMAND
Population
As mentioned, one of the most important factors determining the need for public transportation
services is the number of people, or density of the neighborhood or sub-area. This is because the more
people living within walking distance of a transit service, the larger the market for ridership. Density
also affects the types of services that are likely to be appropriate; more densely developed
communities and neighborhoods can support more frequent transit services (also Figure 2).
The City of Buckeye is notable for being one of the fastest growing and geographically largest cities
in the United States. The city’s population more than doubled over the past 13 years, increasing from
50,870 people in 2010 to 108,909 by July 2023 (Figure 3). Despite rapid population growth, Buckeye
remains a low-density community, in part because population growth has been accompanied by land
annexation. There are a handful of areas, including in the Downtown Buckeye area, Verrado,
Sundance and Festival where density is higher but still not sufficient to support traditional fixed-route
transit service (Figure 4).
Figure 3
City of Buckeye Population Growth 1990–2022
Source: U.S. Census Data adapted by Nelson\Nygaard
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2022
Population
Year
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Figure 4
City of Buckeye Population Density (2022)
Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 2022, City of Buckeye
Demographic and Socioeconomics
In addition to density, national research consistently shows that some groups of people are more likely
to use transit than other groups. These groups include individuals and households with limited access
to a private vehicle and those with low incomes who are more likely to want, need, and use transit
services than other groups.
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Figure 5
Income Characteristics of the Population in Buckeye, Maricopa County, and State of Arizona
City of Buckeye
Maricopa County
State of Arizona
Median Household Income
$98,778
$85,518
$76,872
Per Capita Income
$34,961
$44,210
$40,736
Percent of Persons Living in
Poverty
6.8%
11.1%
12.4%
Percent Zero-Vehicle Households
2.6%
5.2%
5.5%
Percent of People with Disabilities
10.0%
9.7%
10.9%
Percent Population Under 18 Years
30.0%
23.1%
22.2%
Source: U.S. Census data adapted by Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates
Low-Income Households
Data shows that compared with the State of Arizona and Maricopa County, the City of
Buckeye has a higher median household income and lower percent of people living in
poverty. However, the average per capita income in Buckeye is lower than in Maricopa
County and the State of Arizona as a whole (Figure 5).
There are neighborhoods and communities where incomes are lower like Downtown
Buckeye, where nearly three-quarters of the households have an annual income of $40,000 or
less (Figure 6). These areas will have the greatest demand and need for public transportation
services.
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Figure 6
City of Buckeye Low Income Households (Incomes of $40,000 or Less) (2022)
Source: ACS 2022, City of Buckeye
Zero-Vehicle Households
Zero-vehicle households are less common in Buckeye than in Maricopa County or Arizona. While
most Buckeye residents live in households that have access to vehicles, there are some areas,
including south of the Downtown Buckeye area near Watson Road and Monroe Avenue, where half
(or more) of households do not have access to a vehicle (Figure 7).
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Figure 7
City of Buckeye Zero-Vehicle Households (2022)
Source: ACS 2022, City of Buckeye
Age
Buckeye has a higher percentage of youth under 18 than in Maricopa County or Arizona. About one
third of Buckeye residents – or about 36,000 people - are under the age of 20, with residents aged five
to 14 representing the largest share among all age groups (Figure 8). A high percentage of younger
residents suggests a need for transportation options among a significant number of people who may
not have a driver’s license or access to a vehicle. At the other end of the age spectrum, adults 60 and
over represent over 15% (about 16,000 people) of the total population in Buckeye. This population is
currently eligible for some transportation services through Community Services, but as we describe in
the next chapter, those services are oversubscribed.
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Figure 8
Percentage of Buckeye Population by Age Group (2022)
Source: U.S. Census Data adapted by Nelson\Nygaard
Employment
Travel to/from work is one of the most predictable types of trips people make. Locations where there
are more jobs, and more jobs spaced closely together, may be better suited for a variety of transit
service types. As a result, the number of jobs and the density of jobs along a corridor or in an area is a
key factor in transit markets.
Like population growth, the City of Buckeye has been steadily adding jobs. The numbers of jobs in
the City of Buckeye increased from around 6,000 jobs in 2005 to nearly 18,000 jobs by 2021 – a
200% increase in 16 years (Figure 9). While the number of jobs in Buckeye has increased, the density
of these jobs is low. As shown in Figure 10, only a small part of Buckeye in Downtown has enough
employment density to support transit services.
25%
7%
12%
16%
12%
10%
10%
6%
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Under 14
15 to 19 years
20 to 29 years
30 to 39 years
40 to 49 years
50 to 59 years
60 to 69 years
70 to 79 years
80 years and over
Percent of Population
Age
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Figure 9
City of Buckeye Employment Growth 2005-2021
Source: LEHD Data adapted by Nelson\Nygaard
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
2005
2010
2015
2021
Jobs
Year
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Figure 10 City of Buckeye Employment Density (2022)
Source: LEHD 2022, City of Buckeye
Composite Transit Demand
The study team prepared a composite transit demand analysis that combines population and
employment density, where employment density is given two times the weight of population density
in the formula, since employment drives transit demand twice as much as population. The composite
transit demand analysis also adjusts population density so that locations with lower-income and zero
vehicle households reflect the higher needs associated with these characteristics. The analysis suggests
that while there is enough demand for lower frequency fixed-route transit services in some areas, such
as Festival, Verrado, Sundance, and Downtown Buckeye, most of the City of Buckeye does not
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currently have the market to support any type of fixed-route transit services throughout the community
(Figure 11).
Figure 11 City of Buckeye Composite Transit Demand (2022)
Source: ACS 2022, LEHD 2022, City of Buckeye
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TRAVEL PATTERNS
Another valuable resource for understanding where and how to operate transit services is by looking at
where and when Buckeye residents travel when they go to work, school and for other purposes. The
data source for understanding these travel patterns is Replica1, an activity-based travel model that
simulates where residents, visitors, and commercial vehicle travel occurs. The data relies on multiple
private and public sources of data to simulate travel demand, including data from personal mobile
devices, demographic data from public and private sources, credit transaction data for consumer
spending, and more. The data can be sorted to see travel flows by time of day as well as for specific
groups of travelers.
Within the City of Buckeye, the most common destinations are Downtown Buckeye and the Sundance
Town Center. Watson Estates and Verrado are also important destinations, especially during peak
periods (8 AM to 10 AM or 4 PM to 7 PM). Outside of Buckeye, the most common travel destinations
are Surprise, Avondale and Goodyear, neighboring communities with more services. Surprise is closer
to Buckeye’s Festival neighborhood, which likely explains the importance of that destination2.
Commuter Patterns
Commuting pattern data by Buckeye residents and workers comes from Valley Metro Vanpool trip
data and the Maricopa Association of Government’s (MAG’s) 2022 Travel Reduction Program
survey. This survey was sent to approximately 3,000 businesses in Maricopa and Pinal Counties to
understand the commuting characteristics including mode of travel, distance from home to work, and
time to commute.
Where Buckeye Residents Work
Eighty-eight percent of Buckeye residents work somewhere other than Buckeye. This reflects an
imbalance between population and jobs in Buckeye: there are over 100,000 people living in Buckeye
and 18,000 jobs. An estimated 38% of Buckeye’s workers commute to Phoenix and 15% commute to
Goodyear. Other areas where residents commute include warehouse districts in Goodyear and
Tolleson, the Luke Air Force Base in Glendale, and the area west of Buckeye that includes the Palo
Verde Generating Station (see Figure 12).
Where Buckeye Workers Live
Just over half—about 53%—of the people who work in Buckeye also live in Buckeye. People who
live and work in Buckeye tend to be concentrated around Sundance and along the US-85 corridor (see
Figure 13). The remaining 47% of people working in Buckeye live in a variety of locations, including
Avondale and Goodyear, and other areas east and west of the city.
1 Replica is private company that collects, processes and produces travel pattern data set. Nelson\Nygaard contracts
with Replica to get access to their data.
2 For example, Festival is 19.9 miles from Adelante Healthcare in Surprise (Bell Road). A similar facility on Monroe
Avenue in Buckeye is 28.5 miles from Festival.
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Figure 12 Buckeye Residents Place of Work (2022)
Source: 2022 Trip Reduction Survey, City of Buckeye
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Figure 13 Buckeye Workers Home (Where Buckeye Workers Live) (2022)
Source: 2022 Trip Reduction Survey, City of Buckeye
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COMMUNITY INPUT
In Spring 2024, Nelson\Nygaard and the City of Buckeye facilitated a series of community
engagement activities, including a series of in-person events and a community-wide survey. The
materials used at the in-person events, the community survey, and a summary report of the findings
from the survey analysis are available as Appendix B.
In-Person Events
City of Buckeye staff and the study team held two community “pop-up” events, one at the City of
Buckeye Senior Center and a second at the Coyote Library. The main purpose of these events was to
talk with residents about transportation needs, promote the online survey and ask people about their
ideas, preferences, and priorities for public transportation. The team also shared a series of boards to
help generate ideas and input.
Community Survey
The study team created a brief survey focused on travel patterns, attitudes about public transportation
services and demographics. The survey was available in English and Spanish, online and in print form
and was advertised for approximately two months between early February and April 14, 2024, through
a combination of flyers, social media, newsletters, and in-person community events. In total 644
people completed the survey.
Key Community Input Takeaways
Most people drive themselves when they travel within Buckeye and to neighboring
communities. People travel frequently (5 times or more per week) for work, school and social
activities and travel to go shopping once or twice a week. Trips to medical appointments were
reported as less frequent.
Many people with lower incomes, however, reported more frequent medical
appointments as compared with higher income individuals.
Most respondents, including low- and high-income individuals, said they have used public
transportation, mostly in Phoenix, other parts of the United States and in cities around the
world.
Most survey respondents have not experienced transportation challenges, but residents with
lower incomes consistently reported challenges. For example:
Nearly 70% of survey respondents with low incomes said they had a transportation
challenge in the past six months. Roughly 40% of transportation challenges resulted in
missing school, work, or medical appointments.
Most survey respondents expressed a strong desire for public transportation but did not have
specific ideas about the type of service.
The desire for public transportation was higher (92%) among lower income residents, but
higher income residents also supported transit services (80%).
CITY OF BUCKEYE, ARIZONA
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When asked how public transportation could help people, many survey respondents suggested
helping people get to essential services like school and medical appointments, supporting
young people traveling to school and jobs, and creating alternative ways to travel.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
The analysis of existing conditions in the City of Buckeye suggests a mixed need for public
transportation. On the one hand, it is a fast-growing city spread out over a large geographic area with a
moderate-income population. The current density and overall characteristics of the community suggest
the need for public transportation is low and fixed-route transit services, like shuttles and community
circulators, would be unlikely to meet productivity standards associated with cost-effectiveness (i.e.,
carry between 6 and 10 riders per hour).
On the other hand, Buckeye has neighborhoods of individuals and families with very low incomes and
there is an overall imbalance between residents and jobs, meaning most people must leave Buckeye to
find work. Further, Buckeye has relatively fewer services than other communities of its size, meaning
many residents, especially people living in Festival, travel to neighboring cities, like Surprise,
Avondale and Goodyear for shopping and medical services. This data suggests potential transit
services may include:
Connections between Downtown Buckeye and service centers like Sundance and potentially
Avondale and Goodyear would increase access to jobs and services for residents of
neighborhoods near Downtown Buckeye.
Commuter services that connect people to Phoenix, Tempe and other large employment and
activity centers in Maricopa County. The success of the vanpool program suggests that people
in Buckeye are amenable to flexible options to get to work beyond driving alone.
On-demand services, like microtransit, would help low income and zero vehicle household
residents, as well as youths, older adults, and people with disabilities access jobs, shopping,
medical services, and other needs which may not be accessible without a private automobile.
The data is also supported by community input, which suggests a strong interest and desire for public
transportation services. This input, including a Buckeye resident survey, also shows that people miss
work, school, and appointments because they cannot get to where they need to go, which improved
transportation services could help.
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3 EXISTING TRANSIT SERVICES
An important part of understanding current and future needs for transit services is the availability and
productivity of existing transit services. As of Winter 2025, there are three types of transit service
available in the City of Buckeye: fixed-route transit services operated by Valley Metro, commuter
services managed Valley Metro and community transportation services available through the City of
Buckeye (see Figure 14).
Figure 14 Summary of Transit Services in Buckeye
Operator
Service Type
Summary
Valley Metro
Transit
Express Route 563 and Rural Route 685 serve Buckeye.
Neither offer frequent service or wide coverage.
While recovering, ridership for both routes is below pre-
pandemic levels.
On Saturdays, Route 685 carries between 8 and 10 riders per
hour, which is higher than weekday service. This suggests a
strong need for service.
Valley Metro
Commuter
There are multiple Valley Metro vanpool routes running
to/from Buckeye.
Existing services could grow and change to meet the gap
between demand for services and supply offered in Buckeye.
City of Buckeye
CSD
Transportation
City of Buckeye offers transportation to/from the Senior
Center (for residents aged 60+)
City of Buckeye also offers limited transportation services to
medical trips (for residents aged 60+ or with a disability)
City of Buckeye programs have waitlists.
Services are limited by staff and vehicle availability
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TRANSIT SERVICES
There are two Valley Metro fixed-route transit services that operate in the City of Buckeye: Route 563
– Avondale/Buckeye Express and Route 685 – Ajo/Gila Bend (see Figure 15). There are no
accessible transit services (or Americans with Disabilities Act – ADA) associated with these two
routes. Express services, like Route 685, are not required to provide ADA paratransit and Route 563’s
ADA service is provided through the flexible routing, which satisfies the ADA requirement.
Figure 15 Valley Metro Fixed Routes that Service City of Buckeye
Source: Valley Metro 2023, City of Buckeye
Express Route 563 Avondale/Buckeye
Route 563 is an east-west express route that operates on weekdays from the Arizona State Capitol to
the Avondale or Buckeye Park and Rides via I-10. There are 8 trips per weekday: 4 eastbound in the
morning and 4 westbound in the evening, with two trips in each direction extending to Buckeye Park
and Ride. The adult one-way full fare for a ride on an express route is $3.25.
Route 563 lost about 25% of its ridership between 2017 and 2020, declining from 40,000 riders per
year to 30,000. During the pandemic, ridership plummeted even further, falling to 5,000 during the
pandemic. Ridership has partially recovered; Route 563 carried about 15,000 riders in 2023 but is still
less than half of pre-pandemic levels (see Figure 16).
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Figure 16 Route 563 Avondale/Buckeye Express Annual Ridership 2017-2024
Source: Valley Metro
Rural Route 685 Ajo/Gila Bend
Route 685 connects Ajo and Gila Bend with Buckeye and other neighboring West Valley
communities like Avondale and Goodyear. It operates from Desert Sky Transit Center in the City of
Phoenix to Ajo via Goodyear, Buckeye, and Gila Bend. Destinations near 685 stops within Buckeye
include the Community Center, Labor Systems, Yuma and Watson Roads, and the Coyote Library and
City Courthouse. Valley Metro classifies Route 685 as a “rural route”: it provides local service and
“flexes”, allowing passengers to book a pick-up or drop-off within three-quarters of a mile of the
published route.
Route 685 is available on weekdays and Saturdays. It makes 9 weekday roundtrips, four of which are
short roundtrips that travel between Yuma Road & Dean Road to Buckeye Senior Center on Centre
Avenue only. Saturday service consists of two round trips: one eastbound and one westbound trip. The
adult one-way full fare for a ride on the rural route is $2.00 for a local trip and $4.00 to travel between
cities.
Ridership on Route 685 declined from a high of 20,000 riders in 2017 to 5,000 riders in 2021.
Demand is slowly recovering, with about 7,500 riders in 2023, which equates to fewer than two riders
per trip, on average. Daily boardings on Saturdays are higher as compared with weekdays, even
though there is less than half the amount of service. In 2023 trips on Route 685’s Saturday service
carried between 8 and 10 riders (see Figure 17).
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual Ridership
Year
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Figure 17 Route 685 Ajo/Gila Bend Annual Ridership 2017-2024
Source: Valley Metro
Buckeye Park-and-Ride
Valley Metro operates a Park-and-Ride lot in Buckeye as part of Route 563, Avondale/ Buckeye
Express. The lot is located at the intersection of Jackrabbit Trail and McDowell Road and has 472
parking spaces, of which 402 are covered, including three van accessible, 11 ADA and six motorcycle
spaces. Parking is free at the lot.
VALLEY METRO VANPOOL PROGRAM
Valley Metro manages a vanpool program that is available to Buckeye residents, where six to fifteen
members can lease out a van to commute to and from work. Riders pay an average cost of $5 per
person per day, which covers the cost of the vehicle lease, fuel, maintenance, and insurance of the
vehicle. Vanpools operate on a month-to-month agreement, with the driver overseeing the van
maintenance, refueling, cleaning, and collecting fares from the riders.
According to the Valley Metro data, there are about 45 vanpool routes that begin or end in the City of
Buckeye (see Figure 18). The most popular pickup points for trips are from the Buckeye Park-and-
Ride, Buckeye Public Library – Coyote Branch, and the Abrazo Buckeye Emergency Center. Current
popular vanpool destinations are located around the core of Phoenix with some to the west and south
of Buckeye. Key destinations from current vanpool programs include the Ajo Border Patrol Station,
Palo Verde Generating Station, the AZ Air National Guard Recruitment Center, and Carl T Hayden
VA Medical Center, indicating some common employment centers among workers who live in
Buckeye.
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Annual Ridership
Year
Weekday
Saturday
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Figure 18 Valley Metro Vanpool Travel Patterns for Buckeye Trips
Source: Valley Metro 2023
COMMUNITY SERVICES
TRANSPORTATION
CSD within the City of Buckeye owns and operates three vans that are used to support Senior
Services. The City of Buckeye staff provides transportation to/from the Congregate Meals program,
which is available on weekdays. Buckeye also delivers meals to people needing support most days of
the week. Most of the Community Services transportation resources are devoted to supporting these
two programs. Transportation is incorporated into the Congregate Meals and Home Delivered Meals
programs and the service is provided with funding available through the Area Agency on Aging. In
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Fiscal Year 2024 (FY24), Buckeye served 13,676 meals at the Senior Center and delivered 18,042
meals (see Figure 19). Data provided by Community Services indicates that the cost of each trip is
approximately $16 per meal delivered with about 11 meals delivered per hour.
Figure 19 Meals Delivered by Community Services per Month (2024)
Source: City of Buckeye Community Services
The city also provides limited transportation to their Senior Center program, which includes a
combination of activities and exercise classes that varies by day for people aged 60 or older and
people with disabilities. Lastly, Community Services also provides a limited number of medical
service trips to Buckeye residents aged 60 and older or people of any age with a certified disability. In
FY24, Buckeye provided 1,894 trips to the Senior Center and 1,182 medical trips (see Figure 20).
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Meals Delivered
Month
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Figure 20 Community Services Senior and Medical Trip Ridership per Month (2024)
Source: City of Buckeye Community Services
Community Services staff report that the demand for transportation far exceeds the vehicle and staff
capacity they currently have. Community Services has access to three ADA-accessible minibuses.
Driving responsibilities are shared among three community center staff members (one full-time, two
part-time). Resource limitations mean that Community Services is not able to accommodate new
participants to the service and therefore they do not currently advertise or promote transportation
services.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
Ridership and usage of the existing transportation services mirror the market analysis data described
in Chapter 2. Transit ridership on the scheduled services is low, but there is a consistent group of
people who use the service, even when service is infrequent and inconvenient. There are also several
vanpools operating out of Buckeye, which is consistent with the market data showing most Buckeye
residents work in jobs somewhere outside of Buckeye, with many people commuting long distances.
The most heavily used transportation services are those operated by the City of Buckeye, which help
people access community programming (congregate meals, senior center programs) and medical
services. These services are consistently oversubscribed. Taken together, the data suggests:
Ridership data shows a need for transportation services, but limited, fixed-route bus services
are not carrying as many riders as they were before the pandemic.
Oversubscription of the service operated by the City of Buckeye suggests seniors and people
aged 60+ as well as people traveling to medical appointments need more transportation
service.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Ridership
Month
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4 FUTURE CONDITIONS
OVERVIEW
The City of Buckeye, as noted, is one of the fastest growing cities in the United States, both in terms
of population growth but also adding jobs. This growth is expected to continue, as Buckeye continues
to plan and build commercial and residential development. Data from the MAG’s model data shows
Buckeye’s population will increase to nearly 300,000 by 2040, and will add 66,000 jobs over that
same period, increasing employment from 18,000 to 84,000 jobs (Figure 21).
Figure 21 Estimated Population and Employment Growth in Buckeye (2020–2040)
Source: MAG 2023
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2020
2030
2040
Quanity
Year
Population
Employment
Residential Units
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PROJECTED POPULATION DENSITY
Population forecasts and planned development activity show that Buckeye is projected to grow in both
population and population density between 2025 and 2040. While density remains medium to low, the
number of areas in Buckeye with population density that can support some transit significantly
expands, covering most of the Downtown area and expands to include the Tartesso area (Figure 22).
Figure 22 City of Buckeye Estimated 2040 Population Density
Source: MAG 2023, City of Buckeye
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PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT DENSITY
By 2040, Buckeye is expected to add jobs and increase employment density, though density will
remain relatively low. Forecasts suggests that Downtown Buckeye and the Watson Road area, will
continue to be one of the only areas that can support transit based strictly on employment density (see
Figure 23).
Figure 23 City of Buckeye Estimated 2040 Employment Density
Source: MAG 2023, City of Buckeye
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PROJECTED COMPOSITE DEMAND
By 2040, the combined impact of increased population and employment suggests that many of the
densest parts of Buckeye will become denser, increasing the need and opportunity for transit service.
By 2040, most of the Downtown area can support transit, with much of it supporting higher frequency
fixed route transit (see Figure 24). Small pockets of some neighborhoods, like Sundance Towne
Center suggest service levels of every 15 minutes or more. Based on 2040 projected demand, Tartesso
shows sufficient demand to support transit as well.
Figure 24 City of Buckeye Estimated 2040 Transit Composite Demand
Source: MAG 2023, City of Buckeye
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FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
Development projects, including planned and permitted developments, are an important source for
understanding future transit needs. MAG’s database includes active and approved developments filed
through Q2 2023 for the City of Buckeye (see Figure 25). This data shows that mixed use and single-
family residential land uses are the highest number of developments coming to Buckeye. Some
significant mixed-use developments coming include the Teravalis planned community in the
northwest of Buckeye and planned communities around Festival. Other various developments on the
horizon include Tartesso Town Center, Catclaw, Beeswax BESS, Monarch Mining, QT 1507, and
Northstar Ranch. Pockets of multi-family residential development are also planned around Tartesso.
Figure 25 Active and Approved Development Projects City of Buckeye (through June 30, 2023)
Source: MAG 2023, City of Buckeye
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SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
Data about future conditions in the City of Buckeye, including population and employment forecasts
and planned development data suggest that the community will continue to grow, develop, and
densify. The data suggests that Buckeye will continue to have a job/housing imbalance with
residential development starting from a larger base and growing at nearly the same rate as
employment. This suggests that a significant portion of Buckeye residents will continue to travel
outside of Buckeye for work and many residents will leave Buckeye for services such as shopping and
medical services.
Several of the factors that are important in understanding travel markets, like income and zero vehicle
households, are not available for future conditions. Despite that, the information suggests the
following potential for public transportation services:
Transit services connecting Downtown Buckeye, Sundance, and Verrado. These three
neighborhoods are expected to become more integrated and connected, with enough density
to support fixed-route transit services. These connections will be important for jobs, school,
and services, like shopping and retail in the City of Buckeye.
Phoenix will continue to be a hub for medical needs, especially for specialized services.
Depending on the type of medical care services developed in Buckeye, there may be ongoing
needs for connections to clinics and doctors’ offices in Avondale and Goodyear.
Regional connections to the employment markets of Avondale, Goodyear, and Phoenix.
Future development suggests many people will commute to jobs in other parts of Maricopa
County, making I-10 an important connection to employment. Meeting some of this need
through regional transit services, such as vanpools and express bus services, will likely be
important.
Festival and Tartesso are forecast for continued growth and densification. Even if these
communities diversify their development patterns to include shopping, there will likely be a
need for connections into Downtown Buckeye, Sundance and Verrado for jobs, shopping, and
other services, and coordinated connections with Surprise. This could include fixed-route
services.
Surprise will continue to be the closest and largest service center for Festival, even if Festival
adds more local services and options for its residents.
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5 TRANSIT STRATEGY
OVERVIEW
Buckeye is a fast growing and developing community on the western edge of Maricopa County. Input
from residents collected in Spring 2024 reveals both a strong desire for more public transportation
services in Buckeye and a clear need for more transportation, especially among low-income residents.
Expanding transportation services will help residents travel to work, school, and access essential
services, like medical services, shopping, and community activities.
Data evaluated as part of the existing and future market analysis, ridership on existing Valley Metro
and City of Buckeye Community Transportation services suggest the following:
There is a clear need for more transportation services, as demonstrated by strong demand for
service operated by CSD.
The CSD service currently operates efficiently, in part because it constrains travel to certain
days and times and restricts where people can go. The data suggests that CSD carries nearly
3.4 riders per hour at a cost of approximately $30 per trip3.
Low, but consistent ridership on Valley Metro operated fixed route services, highlights that
some residents rely on the service for transportation.
Buckeye’s low density development patterns and land uses currently make it difficult for
traditional fixed-route transit services to succeed.
Buckeye has a current and projected jobs-housing imbalance with many more residents than
jobs. This means the majority of Buckeye residents commute to other places, like Phoenix,
Avondale and Goodyear for jobs and will continue to do so.
Lower income residents in Buckeye are concentrated in neighborhoods south of Downtown.
In these areas, as many as 75% of the residents earn $40,000 or less per year. While there are
some services within walking distances of these neighborhoods, there is limited access to
employment or services.
Buckeye has limited shopping, retail services and medical facilities. While new facilities are
being developed, many residents travel to adjacent communities for their services.
Buckeye is expected to increase in total population and jobs. This will lead to greater
population and employment density and more opportunities for transit services.
Given the existing need and goals of the service, the Transit Master Plan team evaluated a handful of
transportation service options currently used by similarly sized and positioned municipalities in
Maricopa County (see Figure 26). This analysis, together with direction and input from the City of
Buckeye led to the following recommendations.
3 Estimated based on 2024 annual data provided by CSD. Includes Medical and Senior trips only.
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Figure 26
City of Buckeye Transportation Options
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RECOMMENDATIONS
In the short term (within the next three years), Buckeye’s goal is to expand the availability of
transportation services to more people at more times of the day by operating service directly. This
option is recommended over other ideas evaluated because it offers advantages in terms of costs, time
to implement, and the ability to serve the community’s highest need residents.
The recommendation includes three coordinated and integrated steps:
1. Continuing Valley Metro Services including fixed route express bus, local rural service, and
commuter vanpool services. These services are provided by Valley Metro, paid through
regional transportation taxes.
2. Expanding the City’s investment in public transportation according to the proposal
proposed by CSD (described below). This proposal has funding for FY26 with services
beginning in Spring 2026. Funding for FY27 and FY28 will be required. Service evaluations
will be performed quarterly, with a complete summary provided in early 2028 to evaluate the
program and consider the next steps.
3. Broadening the CSD’s proposal to include “mobility manager” responsibilities, so that
the coordinator would be responsible for overseeing ongoing transportation services and help
solve individual transportation challenges by directing people to existing programs and
services.
CSD Proposed Service Expansion
Overview
Buckeye’s CSD developed a proposal to initiate a pilot program that would expand transportation
services available to Buckeye residents traveling within the City of Buckeye. The target market (see
below) would include older adults, people with disabilities, veterans, low-income individuals traveling
to work, as well as members of the public.
The pilot transportation services would be separate from existing CSD services:
1. Existing: CSD transportation that delivers meals and transports people to/from CSD services,
such as congregate meals and senior programs. CSD transportation would be operated with
existing staff and the two ADA vans.
2. New Community Transportation Pilot: offer Buckeye residents rides to medical
appointments, employment, school, and other activities within Buckeye. The new
Community Transportation Pilot would be staffed with a full-time transit coordinator to
manage and oversee the program plus 2.5 FTE to operate and drive vehicles. The fleet would
include at least three and up to four vehicles:
12-passenger cutaway minibus (transferred from CSD’s Senior Programming services to
the Community Transportation program)
New ADA minivans (2 ordered)
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Markets Served
The planned markets served with the Community Transportation Pilot would be Buckeye residents
traveling within the City of Buckeye. The pilot project, however, will include two exceptions:
Initially, all of Buckeye will be served. However, given the long distance between Festival
and Tartesso from the rest of Buckeye. Transit vehicles will not be able to serve the rest of
Buckeye during this time. This will require closer monitoring during the initial trial period. If
the system becomes strained, vouchers could be provided to third party vendors (Uber/Lyft)
to free up capacity.
CSD may allow some exceptions for individuals traveling to medical treatments not currently
available within the City of Buckeye, such as cancer treatments. Residents needing exceptions
may apply to CSD through a process like the one used by Valley Metro.
Opportunities and Challenges
The short-term recommendation relies on the City of Buckeye’s existing services and resources to
grow the program over the short-term and meet the most pressing and urgent needs. The proposal
prepared by CSD suggests that the service expansion and deployment of new vehicles could occur as
soon as Spring 2026 , with full rollout of the service (i.e., fully staffed and all vehicles in service) by
the end of year 2 (24 months). The pilot project takes advantage of several opportunities:
CSD’s services are oversubscribed. Adding vehicles and drivers will increase capacity and
allow the City of Buckeye to serve more residents.
Operating the new service as a pilot project (for up to 24 months) gives the City flexibility to
adjust and refine the service delivery model as it learns from experience. Operating as a pilot
also limits the City’s long-term commitment to the service.
Residents know and trust CSD. They understand how to use the service and are familiar with
the drivers and vehicles. Expanding this program is likely the most effective way to increase
the service in the immediate term.
Purchasing vehicles and hiring drivers who work directly for the City of Buckeye is an
expedient way to increase services. It also leverages City infrastructure, like vehicle
maintenance capabilities, to increase operational efficiencies.
Operating and managing expanded transit services directly will also give City staff increased
insight into community needs, challenges and opportunities with their proposed approach and
ideas for how things could be improved over time.
There are also a handful of challenges facing the pilot project.
According to the CSD proposal, transit service would be provided as an advanced reservation
system, with riders booking trips between 24 and 48 hours in advance. While simpler to
manage, advanced booking is less convenient for riders, some of whom may have an
unplanned need for a trip. CSD may accommodate same-day reservations as available and
work towards on-demand services as service matures.
Advanced reservation systems typically have lower operating costs but are less efficient on a
per unit cost, such as cost per rider. This is because demand response trips often provide a
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higher level of service (door to door rather than curb to curb) and the advanced reservation
system means the schedule cannot adjust dynamically and typically leads to a vehicle
carrying fewer riders per trip.
Residents living in Festival and Tartesso, like other parts of Buckeye, want and need
transportation services. Given the distances between Festival and the rest of Buckeye,
however, serving these communities with on-demand transportation could strain the program
because of the long travel times. As a result, Festival and Tartesso are not included in the
initial pilot program and instead will be revisited after the pilot starts, with potential for
setting up a scheduled shuttle service or offering vouchers for rides on ride hailing services
like Uber and Lyft.
CSD’s proposal for enhanced transportation service will require 12-24 months to reach full
implementation with full staff and all vehicles in service. CSD may adjust and refine the
service during the pilot phase, potentially adjusting the hours of operation, service area and
other parts of the service design to respond to rider needs. This schedule allows time to
develop service policies, guidelines and marketing materials, purchase vehicles, hire drivers,
and fully deploy resources. CSD should begin tracking data as soon as the service; evaluating
service performance may start at or around the one-year mark, recognizing that the service
will require at least a full year to build awareness and attract riders.
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SPOTLIGHT:
Grants and Funding Opportunities
The City of Buckeye is eligible to compete for federal and state programs
that could help pay for transit capital and operating costs. Federal and
state funding programs are competitive; in almost every case, requests for
funding outpace available resources. The City of Buckeye has the
opportunity and challenge of having both rural and urbanized areas. As a
result, it is eligible for multiple grant programs, but administering
programs across two sets of requirements will be challenging.
The Federal Transit Administration (FTA) manages a handful of programs that support public transportation
services:
FTA Section 5310 Enhanced Mobility for Seniors and Individuals with Disabilities provides the
State of Arizona with $5.2 million annually. Maricopa County’s program is administered by the City of
Phoenix and the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG). Information about the grant and current
year application processes should be available in January 2026.
FTA Section 5311 Formula Grants for Rural Areas supports rural transit in Arizona with $18 million
annually. The City of Buckeye includes rural and urbanized areas, so it is likely eligible for 5311 and
5307 funds (see below). The grant is administered by the Arizona Department of Transportation. The
grant application process is typically administered in the beginning of the new year with grants due in
February.
FTA Section 5307 Formula Grants for Urban Areas awards funding directly to urbanized areas. The
Phoenix West metropolitan area extends to part of Buckeye and was funded with $9.1 million in 2025.
The City of Phoenix and the Maricopa Area Governments (MAG) administered these funds according
to the Regional Programming Guidelines.
The State of Arizona also offers a handful of grants that could support Buckeye’s transportation services:
Transportation Alternatives Program, administered by the Arizona Department of Transportation
(ADOT), allocates Surface Transportation Block Grants to communities in support of transportation
programs, including transit. Grants tend to be due in the spring.
The Arizona State Match Advantage for Rural Transportation (SMART) Fund supports surface
transportation projects in rural communities by providing funds to match federal awards. The SMART
Fund follows federal funding programs, with applications due in the Fall.
Measuring and Monitoring Performance
Ongoing performance monitoring will be critical to understanding service strengths and weaknesses to
adjust the service to improve effectiveness and efficiency. While it is important to track metrics as
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soon as the program begins, evaluation of the performance should recognize that the program is
ramping up and some metrics will reflect the newness of the service. Industry practices suggest new
transit services can take up to one full year to mature and reach the expected productivity standards.
Over time, performance monitoring and evaluation may identify needs to increase the technology,
structure, and delivery of the service to maximize efficiency and benefits to Buckeye residents. Some
preliminary metrics to monitor:
Trip Denials – Even with increased investment, CSD will not be able to accommodate every
trip request. Trip denials should be recorded; when denials increase beyond 10% over the
entire day, or 20% at peak times, CSD may review its current service model.
Riders per Hour/Riders per Mile – Successful advance reservation demand response
service typically carry between 1 to 2 riders per hour. Given the distances between
destinations in Buckeye, CSD can expect to be at the lower end of that scale. However, if
riders per hour drop significantly below 1 and/or stays below 1 rider per hour for extended
parts of the day, the City of Buckeye and CSD should review its service model and operating
practices.
Cost per Rider – Operating service in-house should result in lower service costs, however,
even with lower productivity, CSD should aim for costs per rider in the $30 to $40 range. If
after several months of operations, costs exceed this range, the City of Buckeye and CSD
should consider alternative service models.
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SPOTLIGHT:
Performance Monitoring
The City of Buckeye’s existing service is efficient, largely because
trips are grouped, and travel is restricted to certain destinations
and times of day. The new service, which will be available to more
people and operate longer hours, is likely to be less efficient (i.e.,
carry fewer riders per hour) as compared with CSD’s current
services. Tracking and following service performance will help
CSD understand how to adjust and respond to market needs.
The City of Buckeye should identify specific performance measures, clarify why they are important,
and monitor those metrics over time. Most transit services select a handful of data points to understand
their service, such as overall ridership, on-time performance, a measure of productivity (trips per hour
or trips per mile), a measure of cost efficiency (riders per hour or riders per mile) and cost
effectiveness (cost per hour of service). Over time, additional measures may be added or evaluated
depending on service development.
Figure 27
Potential Productivity Measures for CSD Service
Measure
Definition
Purpose
Completed Daily
Trips
Total or average daily
trips
Indicates effectiveness.
Expect ridership to increase over time.
Trip Origins and
Destinations
Locations where riders
are being picked up and
dropped off.
Shows areas with greatest needs.
May guide service adjustments.
On-time
Performance
Number of rider pick-ups
(or drop-offs) that
occurred within +/1 5
minutes
Measures service quality.
Expect OTP to improve over time.
Passenger Trips per
Revenue Hour
Passenger Trips/Revenue
Hours
Measures efficiency.
Expect improvement over time.
Passenger Trips per
Revenue Mile
Passenger Miles/Revenue
Miles
Measures efficiency.
Expect improvement over time.
Peak Capacity
Maximum number of
passenger trips per hour
Measures maximum efficiency.
Indicates when service is used most (and by how
much).
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Measure
Definition
Purpose
Number of
deadhead miles
per day
Miles driven per day
without customer onboard
Measures unused service.
Should decrease overtime.
Number of
deadhead hours
per day
Hours driven per day
without customer onboard
Measures unused service.
Should decrease overtime.
Impact on
Accessibility
New trip destinations
Demonstrates importance of service / alignment with
goals.
Unique Individuals
Service
Number of unique
(unduplicated) people
using service
Demonstrates importance of service / alignment with
goals.
Trip Denials
Number of trips not
accommodated
Measures unmet needs
Should decrease over time
Riders per Hour
Number of riders
carried/hours of service
Measures effectiveness
Should increase over time
Cost per Rider
Cost of operating service /
Number of riders carried
Measures effectiveness
Should decrease over time
Source: Nelson\Nygaard
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Service Modifications and Improvements
There are several adjustments that the City of Buckeye and CSD may consider, pending service
performance such as:
1. Increase marketing and awareness – CSD has lacked the resources to promote their
transportation service in the past. As a result, community awareness of the program is low.
Introducing new services always requires marketing and awareness campaigns. After an
initial surge in demand (based on CSD’s current wait list), CSD will need to implement a
marketing and information campaign to maintain awareness and increase demand.
2. Adjust operating practices – one of the easiest and potentially most effective ways to
manage demand and trip costs is to adjust operating practices to restrict traveler behavior and
choices in ways that strengthen the system overall. These strategies may include:
a. Adjust service hours to begin/end earlier or later. CSD’s proposal is to operate service
from 6:30 AM to 6:30 PM, which covers most travel demands, including work, school,
appointments, and quality of life trips, like shopping, visiting friends/family and
participating in community activities. However, if demand is low early or late, the
schedule could be shortened to save costs.
b. Coordinate service with other transportation programs. Likewise, if demand is low at
certain times of the day, such as late morning or early afternoon, CSD could use the
transit service to help augment other programs, like the congregate meal program, or
offer trips for Buckeye students traveling to/from program activities. CSD may charge
fares to these riders or work with agency sponsors to arrange for payment. Other
coordination opportunities include event day services.
c. Use fares to encourage travel during certain times of the day / days of the week. The
City of Buckeye could also use fares to increase the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of
the service. This may mean implementing fares and potentially charging higher fares
based on distance traveled or time of day.
3. Transition to a full turnkey on-demand transportation provider that outsources service
operations and technology. The City of Buckeye can continue to own and operate vehicles.
Turnkey systems must be managed but shift responsibility of the day-to-day operations to an
external vendor; depending on the number of vehicles, this approach may be a cost-effective
solution.
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SPOTLIGHT:
Turnkey Operations
The transit master plan included a peer review of on-demand transit
services operated nationally and in the State of Arizona (see also
Appendix D). This analysis shows that several cities nationally and in
Arizona operate their on-demand services in-house, such that staff are
city employees, and all vehicles and equipment are owned and maintained
by the city. This model offers several benefits, including more control over
service quality.
At the same time, however, the predominant model nationally and in Arizona is to contract with a private vendor
for on-demand services. Private contracting is more common for app-based, microtransit services purchasing
software from a vendor and for slightly larger systems that deploy more than 4 or 5 vehicles at a single time. As
the service grows, more vehicles are deployed and operations become more complex, Buckeye may consider
working with a private contractor to operate the service.
Two communities near Buckeye – Avondale and Goodyear - plus as of January 2025 Peoria – participate in a
turnkey on-demand service, “We Ride.” This arrangement includes a shared contract with the same vendor,
shared marketing (i.e., the WeRide brand) as well as ongoing collaboration and coordination among the
individual transit managers. To date, WeRide partners all use a “virtual stops” operating model that pick-ups and
drops-off riders at predetermined locations within short walking distances of activity and residential centers in
each zone. By asking riders to walk to stops, the service can carry more riders and operate more efficiently.
Specific details of the WeRide service, including the service model, hours of service, type of vehicles, fares, etc.
are determined by individual municipalities based on their goals and budgets of each agency. This model offers
advantages for the municipalities,
including faster, more seamless
deployment and cost efficiencies.
It is also slightly simpler for riders,
who may be familiar with the
service.
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Source: Google Maps
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LONGER-TERM OPPORTUNTIES
The City of Buckeye is expected to grow and develop for the foreseeable future, adding people, jobs,
and services. With increased population and economic activity, the City of Buckeye will need to scale
its investment in public transportation services to match the needs of the underlying community.
Potential strategies and considerations include:
1. Event Services – Buckeye has several large events and festivals, such as the Air Show, which
attract large numbers of visitors. As part of planning for these large-scale events, Buckeye
may want to leverage CSD resources and expertise to offer “park and ride” shuttles to help
manage access and traffic congestion. Developing and offering event shuttles could begin in
the short term.
2. Expanded Valley Metro service – Valley Metro services, including commuter express
routes, rural connections and other future modes will continue to be important to the City of
Buckeye as population and employment grow. The City of Buckeye should continue to
partner and collaborate with Valley Metro staff to make sure services adjust and respond to
growing and changing needs and expectations.
3. Increased connections within Western Maricopa County – Growth in Buckeye is part of
the rapidly growing Western Maricopa County sub-area that includes Buckeye as well as
Avondale, Goodyear, and Surprise. The region will become more integrated and self-
contained, sharing some regional services like hospitals, shopping, and education. The ability
to travel within the region and make connections to adjacent communities is already key to
many Buckeye residents; supporting some of these connections with sub-regional transit
connections will be needed in the future.
4. Diversified transit network that includes on-demand and fixed route services –Over time
as ridership on the new service grows, CSD may expand and adapt service from an advance
reservation to same-day, on-demand, microtransit style service. In the longer term, as land use
patterns change with higher densities and more pedestrian infrastructure, there may be
opportunities to transition some on-demand services to scheduled, fixed-route style transit
services that offer connections within the City of Buckeye (initial service concepts developed
in 2024 are included as a reference in Appendix E). Generally speaking, demand response
services that carry six or more riders per hour may consider transitioning to fixed-route
transit. Potential routes include:
Festival–Floreo/Teravalis - Tartesso–Downtown Buckeye – provide regularly
scheduled fixed route connections between Festival and the rest of Buckeye so that
residents can access Buckeye’s Downtown and local services. As the corridor fills in,
the fixed-route bus service may also provide shorter trips between neighborhoods
and services.
Downtown Buckeye–Sundance – connecting Buckeye’s most densely developed
and highest need neighborhoods with fixed-route bus service will be more cost-
effective and efficient as population and employment increases. Connections can be
short and direct and offer fast, reliable service.
Sundance–Verrado – will emerge as a key connection to link residential areas in
Verrado with shopping and services in Sundance. Bus service may also provide local
connections with Verrado as the neighborhood adds retail and other services.
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5. Technology pilots – Maricopa County is at the forefront of technology systems, including the
use and deployment of automated vehicles. The autonomous vehicle ride-hailing service
Waymo is available in 90 square miles in the Phoenix metropolitan area, with services
available in Phoenix, Scottsdale, Mesa, Chandler, and Tempe. It is the largest autonomous
ride-hailing territory in the United States4. Another autonomous ride-hailing style vehicle
service, May Mobility, is available in Sun City. The City of Buckeye should track and
evaluate the performance of these services and consider a pilot deployment of an autonomous
service in select neighborhoods.
4 Largest Autonomous Ride-Hail Territory in US Now Even Larger (June 2024):
https://waymo.com/blog/2024/06/largest-autonomous-ride-hail-territory-in-us-now-even-larger
Buckeye Transit Study
Final Report
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City of Buckeye
Buckeye Transit Master
Plan
Appendices
December 2025
CITY OF BUCKEYE, ARIZONA
Appendix A
Review of Previous
Plans and Studies
CITY OF BUCKEYE, ARIZONA
Related Plan Review
Plan
Overview
2050 Arizona Long-Range
Transportation Plan
Identified a $3.5 billion funding gap for 5310 and 5311.
Noted need for a State Transit Plan to support non-highway system
needs
Downtown Buckeye Specific
Area Plan
Planned transit-oriented development north of downtown at 4th St &
Buckeye Canal Rd due potential to commuter rail line
Short Range Transit
Program – FY 2024 – 2028
Additional trip on Route 563 in 2024
Implement new 10-mi Buckeye circulator route in 2025
Momentum 2050 – Regional
Transportation Plan
Identified funding sources for high-capacity and streetcar transit
projects in Phoenix and Tempe
Connect Buckeye – Bicycle
and Pedestrian Master Plan
Analyzed existing and proposed transit stops for active transportation
investment
Valley Metro 2016 Buckeye
Transit Plan
Long-term recommendations include several route extensions along
Buckeye Rd, Van Buren St, McDowell Rd, and Indian School Rd.
Buckeye in Motion –
Transportation Master Plan
Proposed new commuter bus routes, transit centers, park-n-rides, and
commuter rail station
Imagine Buckeye – 2040
General Plan
Identified 6 key activity centers for transit-oriented development
CITY OF BUCKEYE, ARIZONA
Appendix B
Market Analysis
CITY OF BUCKEYE, ARIZONA
Appendix C
Community Engagement
Materials
CITY OF BUCKEYE, ARIZONA
Appendix D
On-Demand Services
Peer Review
CITY OF BUCKEYE, ARIZONA
Appendix E
Initial Transit Service
Concepts