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Mesa's Water Supply Update Preparing Today for Tomorrow's Water Needs City of Mesa Water Resources Department Presented by: Joe Giudice, Jesse Heywood and Nicole Petker PURPOSE OF TODAY'S DISCUSSION Focus: drought on the Colorado River System and the primary reservoirs — Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Federal actions Record of Decision and Final EIS 2027–2028 operating rules What rules now apply? ≈Mesa implications Mesa water supplies How supply reductions affect Mesa Future investments How Mesa continues preparing Photo Credit: UNLV Mesa Water Resources The Decline of Lake Mead Review of Portfolio 1 Mesa Water Resources Mesa’s Water Portfolio Has Evolved Over Generations From foundation supplies to an integrated, diversified water portfolio ≈ 1900s–1960s SRP + Groundwater Local surface water and groundwater established Mesa’s municipal system. + 1970s–1990s CAP Added Colorado River water broadened Mesa’s regional supply portfolio. ↓ 1990s–Today Recharge + Storage Mesa expanded underground storage, and recovery capacity. Today + Tomorrow Reuse + Exchanges Reclaimed water and partnerships add flexibility and extend existing supplies. Increasing Diversity • Greater Flexibility • Long-Term Reliability 2 Mesa's Water Portfolio INTEGRATED RESOURCES SUPPORT LONG-TERM WATER RELIABILITY Surface Water 85% ≈ Salt & Verde Rivers (SRP) 40% ≈ Colorado River (CAP) 45% Groundwater 6% Recharge • Storage • Recovery ↓ Reclaimed Water Exchange 9% Reuse • Sustainability • Partnerships Mesa Water Resources 3 Strategic Water Resources Beyond the Core Portfolio ❖Gila River Indian Community (GRIC) Water Exchange ❖New Conservation Space (NCS) Water ❖Groundwater ❖Underground Long-Term Storage Credits (LTSC) ❖Arizona Water Bank Reuse + Exchange Infrastructure Central Mesa Reuse Pipeline / GRIC Exchange New Conservation Space Roosevelt Dam and SRP storage Groundwater Production and recovery well capacity Banked Water Credits Recharge and long-term storage Mesa Water Resources 4 On-Project vs. Off-Project • "On-Project" area is the City Zone and supplied by SRP • "Off-Project" area is comprised of the Eastern & Southern Zones and supplied by Colorado River Water • All areas can be supplied with Groundwater 5 Mesa Water Resources ↓ ! 6 The Colorado River has changed Current system status Lake Mead 27% Lake Powell 23% 1 Reservoir levels remain low Lake Mead and Lake Powell continue to carry the effects of long-term system imbalance. 2 Near-term projections remain challenging Continued dry conditions and high demands keep pressure on reservoir operations. 3 Record of Decision and Operating Guidelines 8-21-2026 Post-2026 guidelines will shape Colorado River operations beginning in 2027. 4 Arizona has already absorbed reductions Future actions must account for prior conservation and impacts to CAP users. Planning implication: Mesa must continue preparing for less certainty in Colorado River supplies. Source: Central Arizona Project Colorado River Conditions Dashboard; user-provided current conditions graphic. 7 Federal Response: Post-2026 Timeline June 2023 Notice of Intent to prepare EIS October 2023 Scoping Summary Report and Federal Register Notice January 2025 Released Alternatives Report January 2026 Published Draft Environment al Impact Study July 2026 Published Final EIS August 2026 Adopted Record of Decision and issued 2027– 2028 Operating Guidelines Fall 2026 Finalization of parallel agreements With no seven-state consensus on long-term operations, Interior established a federal framework and near-term operating rules while Basin negotiations continue. Source: Arizona Reconsultation Committee August 24, 2026 Meeting user-provided current conditions graphic. 8 What the Federal Decision Does 10-Year Record of Decision 2027–2036 Decision Framework Planning implication: Mesa must continue preparing for less certainty in Colorado River supplies. • Establishes operating principles, thresholds and ranges for managing Lake Powell and Lake Mead through 2036 • Operating rules established in two-year increments • Lower basin shortage up to 3 MAF per year • Coordinated reservoir operations 5-12 MAF to protect critical infrastructure at Glenn Canyon Dam • Lake Powell is expected to begin Water Year 2027 in the Lower Elevation Infrastructure Protection Range, with an initial release range of 6.0–7.0 MAF • No Upper Basin imposed reductions and discretionary use of Reservoirs • Allows future seven-state consensus agreements to be incorporated 9 2027–2028 Operating Guidelines Planning implication: Mesa must continue preparing for less certainty in Colorado River supplies. •1.25 MAF annual Lower Basin reduction •At least 700 KAF additional Lower Basin conservation now through 2028 •Lake Powell operations focused on maintaining 3,510 feet for infrastructure reliability Arizona California Nevada Total Lower Division States 2027 760 KAF 440 KAF 50 KAF 1,250 KAF 2028 760 KAF 440 KAF 50 KAF 1,250 KAF Total Reductions 2027-2028 2,500 KAF Additional Conservation 2027-2028 300 KAF 300 KAF 100 KAF 700 KAF Total Reductions and Conservation 1,820 KAF 1,180 KAF 200 KAF 3,200 KAF 10 Planning implication: Mesa must continue preparing for less certainty in Colorado River supplies. 2027 Operations: Federal Impact of Lower Basin Reductions Estimated cut to M&I Priority is 14%, Indian Priority is 10%, and 100% to NIA Priority. MESA CAP PORTFOLIO 53,345 AF Full allocation → ≈41,537 AF Estimated after reductions −11,808 AF 22% 78% remains 22% reduced CAP resource Full 2027–28 Impact Mesa M&I Allocation 43,503 37,413 −14% SRPMIC Lease Water (IP) 1,669 1,502 −10% Wellton-Mohawk Exchange (P3) Water 2,622 2,622 No cut RWCD Assignment Water (NIA) 627 0 −100% Hohokam Water (NIA) 4,924 0 −100% TOTAL CONTRACT ALLOCATION 53,345 41,537 −22% Mesa retains its M&I, Indian Priority and Wellton-Mohawk supplies, but NIA supplies are fully reduced. Preliminary planning estimate. Headline values are rounded; table total reflects the unrounded calculation. 11 Mesa Has Prepared for Colorado River Drought Five actions strengthen Mesa’s supply reliability, operational flexibility, and demand management. 1 Invested in renewable supplies Expanded Roosevelt Dam / New Conservation Space to support long-term surface-water resilience. 2 Stored water underground Mesa water banking and Arizona Water Bank credits provide drought reserve capacity. 3 Established policy tools Large Water User Ordinance and drought/tiered rates support responsible use. 4 Built smart infrastructure AMI water meters and the Central Mesa Reuse Pipeline improve efficiency and reuse. 5 Advanced conservation Turf reductions, xeriscape, and efficient landscape programs lower demand. Mesa Water Resources 12 - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Population Avg Daily Water Demand (MGD) City of Mesa Population & Average Daily Water Usage 1970 to 2025 Average Day Demand (mgd) Population 13 Lost & Unaccounted for Water • Compares the water leaving the Treatment Plant vs. what is metered to the customer • National Average is 17% • AZ State Law Required to stay under 10% • Since AMI project started it has dropped below 5% • Actively doing leak detection to find & fix leaks 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% December May October March August January June November April September February July December May 2020 2021 2021 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2025 2025 2025 2026 % Lost & Unnacounted Water 14 Since 2016, Mesa has saved enough water to fill Saguaro Lake. That’s over 70,000 acre-feet of water. 15 16 17 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Acre-Feet Off Project Water Supplies vs Demand Scenarios (No CAP Cuts) 1990-2050 GRIC Exchange M & I Priority Water Total Indian & NIA Contracts Subcontract M & I Priority Water NCS Water post SCIF ADWR Groundwater Allowance and Incidental Recharge NCS Water pre SCIF Long-Term Storage Credits 91st Ave Advanced Water Purification Facility Bartlett Dam Water Historical Off-Project Demands Projected Average Growth Off-Project Demands Projected Moderate Growth Off-Project Demands 18 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Acre-Feet 22% Cut to Colorado River Supplies vs Demand Scenarios 1990-2050 GRIC Exchange M & I Priority Water 57% Cut to Total Indian & NIA Contracts 14% Cut to M&I Priority Water NCS Water post SCIF Arizona Water Banking Authority ADWR Groundwater Allowance and Incidental Recharge NCS Water pre SCIF Long-Term Storage Credits 91st Ave Advanced Water Purification Facility Bartlett Dam Water Historical Off-Project Demands Projected Average Growth Off-Project Demands Projected Moderate Growth Off-Project Demands 19 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 Acre-Feet 50% Cut to Colorado River Supplies vs Demand Scenarios 1990-2050 GRIC Exchange M & I Priority Water 57% Cut to Total Indian & NIA Contracts 50% Cut to M&I Priority Water NCS Water post SCIF Arizona Water Banking Authority ADWR Groundwater Allowance and Incidental Recharge NCS Water pre SCIF Long-Term Storage Credits 91st Ave Advanced Water Purification Facility Bartlett Dam Water Historical Off-Project Demands Projected Average Growth Off-Project Demands Projected Moderate Growth Off-Project Demands Actions Mesa Will Take in Response to Reduced Colorado River Supplies A staged response: use available reserves, protect customers, and continue building long-term resiliency. 1 NEAR-TERM RESERVE Utilize the Water Bank Use Arizona Water Bank and Mesa bank resources to firm reductions when available and appropriate. 2 RESERVE SUPPLIES Utilize NCS Water and Groundwater Activate reserve supplies such as New Conservation Space water to reduce pressure on the operating portfolio. 3 NEW SUPPLIES Investment in Bartlett / Advanced Water Purification Continue regional supply development and partnership opportunities that add flexibility over time. 4 OPERATIONAL READINESS Deploy Drought Plans as Needed Scale actions based on conditions, shortage severity, customer impacts, and Council policy direction. Response principle: preserve reliability, maintain flexibility, and phase actions to match actual shortage conditions. Mesa Water Resources 20 Additional Actions to Enhance Portfolio Resilience • Recommend updates to Water Shortage Plan • Recommend updates to Large Water User Ordinance • Real time leak detection through Smart metering • Pursue grants and funding opportunities for additional conservation investments 21 Regional Partnerships and Long-Term Solutions • New Groundwater Wells to recover LTSCs • Raise Bartlett Dam • SCIF (connect the canal systems) • Divert more Reuse Water to the Gila River Indian Community • State Importation Projects led by WIFA • Advanced Water Purification at 91st Ave WWTP – Exchange Water • Septic to Sewer • Federal funding to support improvements on the Colorado River system and development of replacement supplies 22 Key Takeaways Mesa began building a resilient water portfolio a half century ago and must continue to invest in new supplies Additional Supply reductions will be inevitable starting in 2027 Uncertainty regarding potential reductions beyond 2028. Water Conservation is a tool that can temper future demand The cost of future supplies will be higher than current supplies 23 To learn what Mesa is doing and how residents can help, visit mesaaz.gov/watersupply 24