COUNTY IMPACT ANALYSIS_PROJECT KEYSTONE_REVISED.PDF

Project Keystone
Impact Analysis
December 2020

Impact Analysis
Impact Analysis
Overview
Maricopa County has requested an FTZ impact analysis of Project Keystone’s impact over the next 20
years to demonstrate the economic value the company will generate in the county.
Based on the assumptions outlined below, Project Keystone will generate an estimated $110.3 million in
direct tax revenues and an additional $6.6 million in indirect tax revenues for a total of $116.9 million in
tax revenue to Maricopa County over a 20-year period.
In 20 years this company will directly create an estimated $6.3 billion of personal income, plus an
additional $2.5 billion in indirect personal income for a total of $8.8 billion. Over a 20-year period
Project Keystone will create $28.5 billion in economic output, with $20.5 billion in direct economic
output, and $8.1 billion in indirect output.
Assumptions
Total Employment at the end of 20 Years: 4,500 jobs
Annual Payroll at the end of 20 Years: $314 million
Total Square Feet of Property: 1,000,000 square feet by Year 1
Total Real Property Investment: $3.5 billion
Total Personal Property Investment: $8.5 billion
FTZ property reclassification was used
20-Year Economic Impact to Maricopa County
Impact Jobs Personal Income Economic Output Revenues
Direct 4,500 $6,280,000,000 $20,454,567,080 $110,272,486
Indirect 2,349 $2,488,279,800 $8,086,674,780 $6,645,960
Total 6,849 $8,768,279,800 $28,541,241,860 $116,918,446

Impact Analysis
Direct Revenue and Economic Impact
Year Jobs Personal Income Output Revenues
2021 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $45,747,924
2022 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $478,784
2023 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $2,540,432
2024 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $2,540,432
2025 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,359,083
2026 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,760,965
2027 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,558,536
2028 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,972,179
2029 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,632,811
2030 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,698,304
2031 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,698,304
2032 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,698,304
2033 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,698,304
2034 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,698,304
2035 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,698,304
2036 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,698,304
2037 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,698,304
2038 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,698,304
2039 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,698,304
2040 4,500 $314,000,000 $1,022,728,354 $3,698,304
Total 4,500 $6,280,000,000 $20,454,567,080 $110,272,486

Impact Analysis
Indirect Revenue and Economic Impact
Year Jobs Personal Income Output Revenues
2021 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2022 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2023 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2024 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2025 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2026 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2027 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2028 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2029 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2030 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2031 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2032 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2033 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2034 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2035 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2036 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2037 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2038 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2039 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
2040 2,349 $124,413,990 $404,333,739 $332,298
Total 2,349 $2,488,279,800 $8,086,674,780 $6,645,960

Impact Analysis
Total Revenue and Economic Impact
Year Jobs Personal Income Output Revenues
2021 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $46,080,222
2022 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $811,082
2023 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $2,872,730
2024 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $2,872,730
2025 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $3,691,381
2026 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $4,093,263
2027 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $3,890,834
2028 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $4,304,477
2029 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $3,965,109
2030 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $4,030,602
2031 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $4,030,602
2032 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $4,030,602
2033 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $4,030,602
2034 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $4,030,602
2035 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $4,030,602
2036 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $4,030,602
2037 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $4,030,602
2038 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $4,030,602
2039 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $4,030,602
2040 6,849 $438,413,990 $1,427,062,093 $4,030,602
Total 6,849 $8,768,279,800 $28,541,241,860 $116,918,446

Impact Analysis
Property Tax Analysis
Property Taxes
Year
Total Company Residential
2021 $0 $0 $0
2022 $0 $0 $0
2023 $2,061,648 $1,889,086 $172,562
2024 $2,061,648 $1,889,086 $172,562
2025 $2,880,299 $2,707,737 $172,562
2026 $3,282,181 $3,109,620 $172,561
2027 $3,079,752 $2,907,190 $172,562
2028 $3,493,395 $3,320,833 $172,562
2029 $3,154,027 $2,981,465 $172,562
2030 $3,219,520 $3,046,958 $172,562
2031 $3,219,520 $3,046,958 $172,562
2032 $3,219,520 $3,046,958 $172,562
2033 $3,219,520 $3,046,958 $172,562
2034 $3,219,520 $3,046,958 $172,562
2035 $3,219,520 $3,046,958 $172,562
2036 $3,219,520 $3,046,958 $172,562
2037 $3,219,520 $3,046,958 $172,562
2038 $3,219,520 $3,046,958 $172,562
2039 $3,219,520 $3,046,958 $172,562
2040 $3,219,520 $3,046,958 $172,562
Total $55,427,666 $52,321,551 $3,106,115

June 2020
Impact Analysis
About GPEC Economic Impact Model
The Greater Phoenix impact model calculates economic and revenue impacts of new business in the
region. The underlying theory behind this regional model is that all communities benefit when a new
business locates in the region, both in terms of employed residents and new revenues. The purpose of
the model is to show how this distribution of economic benefits may occur.
Economic Impact
The impact model uses county-level multipliers from the Minnesota IMPLAN Group for Maricopa
County to calculate direct and indirect impact on specific communities in the Greater Phoenix region.
The model also calculates economic impact to the county and state economies in terms of new jobs,
output, and revenue generated. In addition to jobs, new businesses create new consumer spending
throughout. The payroll from the new businesses can be converted into effective buying income. On a
regional basis, effective buying income is distributed across retail and service categories based on
spending patterns from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Revenue Impact
Direct revenue impacts include revenues generated directly by the businesses, based on project
information such as real property values, employment, direct sales, and local and nonlocal purchases.
Additional revenues generated by related supplier and consumer jobs, and supported residents are
included in the indirect and total impact results. All revenue projections are in current dollars.
Disclaimer
The results from this analysis suggest only one possible scenario based on given project parameters
and assumptions, and do not exclude other development possibilities under different assumptions. The
economic impact model serves as a tool for basic quantitative evaluations for economic development
projects. The results are based on the current economic structure of the communities, and current tax
rates. The results of the model are order-of-magnitude estimates and are intended only as a general
guide as to show how businesses and development projects may impact the region.