100520IB.DOCX

Informal Meeting Minutes
Monday, October 05, 2020 Board Members
9:30 AM Clint Hickman, Chairman, District 4
Jack Sellers, Vice Chairman, District 1
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS Steve Chucri, District 2
Maricopa County, Arizona Bill Gates, District 3
(and the Boards of Directors of the Flood Control District, Steve Gallardo, District 5
Library District, Stadium District, Improvement Districts,
Housing Authority of Maricopa County and/or Board of
Deposit) County Manager
Joy Rich
Clerk of the Board
"The mission of Maricopa County is to Fran McCarroll
provide regional leadership and fiscally
responsible, necessary public services to
its residents so they can enjoy living in Meeting Location
healthy and safe communities” Supervisor’s Auditorium
Exec Conference Room
205 W Jefferson
Phoenix, AZ 85003
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
The Board of Supervisors of Maricopa County, Phoenix, Arizona, convened in an Informal Session at The Board of S
9:30 AM on Monday, October 5, 2020, in the Supervisors’ Auditorium Exec Conference Room, 205 W 9:30 AM on Mo
Jefferson, Phoenix, AZ 85003, with the following members present: Clint Hickman, Chairman, District Floor Phoenix,
4; Jack Sellers, Vice Chairman, District 1; Bill Gates, Supervisor, District 3 (telephonically); Steve Jack Sellers, V
Chucri, Supervisor, District 2 (telephonically); Steve Gallardo, Supervisor, District 5 (telephonically). District 2; Stev
Also present: Fran McCarroll, Clerk; Maria Ceaglske, Minutes Coordinator; Joy Rich, County Manager; Fran McCarroll,
Andrea Cummings, Legal Counsel (telephonically).
PRESENTATION
1. ECONOMIC FORECAST PRESENTATION
Presentation regarding the Economic Forecast Presentation.
Alan Maguire, The Maguire Company (C-49-21-007-X-00)
Alan Maguire presented the following slides which are also on file with the Clerk of the Board's
Office and retained in accordance with LAPR retention guidelines:

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Monday, October 05, 2020
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Mr. McGuire spoke briefly on the U. S. economy. He noted the Gross Domestic Product and
the dramatic drops in the numbers for the first two quarters. This was a 31.4% decline, but he
said this might not be as bad as it sounds. The quarter rate of decline was only 9%.
Mr. McGuire noted the graph below illustrates how far back in time to get to the same size
economy.

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The slide below illustrates jobless claims. There was a large number of first-time claims, but
these numbers declined after March and April and they continue to decline.

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By contrast the slide below shows people filing repeated claims and even this notes the trend
has been very good. Unemployment has dropped from 8.42% to 7.9%.
Below is a list of U.S. unemployment programs. At bottom the it shows 26 million people
receiving unemployment assistance in one form or another. The PUA (Pandemic
Unemployment Assistance) is a new program and indicates the participation numbers. This is
very important to Arizona and affects small business proprietors.

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The slide above indicates basic unemployment insurance. The slide below indicates
unemployment benefits as a direct result of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

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The following illustration shows that personal savings usually amounts to $1.2 trillion. This
increased to $6.4 trillion. This is the amount of money set aside by people after paying bills.
This indicates many of those who received the $1,200/$2,400 check saved it, and that savings
has remained very high.

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Mr. McGuire stated when unemployment, pandemic unemployment assistance, and other
programs are added together, it amounts to $6.4 trillion which is the largest ever in personal
savings. This amount of money is the reason spending has held up so well.
He said if the total savings and all the payments are added together, and run it fast forward
from March to July, 2020, it totals to $19.6 trillion. These are dollars available for spending.
This occurred again in August and the number is now up to $22 trillion. This will drive the
economy going forward.

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The slide below shows a positive trend in consumer spending which is good for the economy.

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The following graph shows the amount of money the Federal Reserve pushed into the economy
after the 2008 recession. In the middle, from January 2008 to January 2015, the Federal
Reserve pumped out $3 trillion.
Between February 2020 and August 2020, the Reserve pumped out $2 trillion.

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Mr. McGuire noted the same was true of the Federal Funds Interest Rate. They began to climb
in 2016 until the fourth quarter of 2018 and then the stock market dropped as noted in the
following slide.

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Mr. McGuire provided a summary of the return of consumer spending in the following slide.
He explained “Half Back Analysis” as how long it is going to take to get back half of the jobs
lost during the recession.

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In the following graph, it illustrates in 2001, it took eight months to get half of the jobs back. In
2008, it took 29 months to get half of the jobs back. In the current crisis it has taken four months.

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Supervisor Chucri asked what the prediction was for the last 50% of the jobs to come back.
Mr. McGuire responded it depended on several things and can be very different by sector. He
said he is using U.S. data which has very large economies such as New York and California
which are relatively shut down. A lot will depend on the rate of re-openings and unemployment
rates in different parts of the economy. He said he thinks Arizona will come back well because
the construction industry was employed the entire time and retailers are coming back well. He
said he has concerns about restaurants, bars, lodging, tourism, and amusements. Mr. McGuire
said Arizona will recover faster and its economy will even out within the next three months.

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Mr. McGuire did a quick comparison of the International Monetary Front (IMF). One year ago
they were forecasting 3.5% of global growth. Now they are at -4.9% which is a gigantic shift.
The slide below shows the U.S. is scheduled to be at -8.0 with Europe and the UK scheduled
to be at -10.2.

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Mr. McGuire reviewed the medium-term outlook and explained how this affects the U.S.
The graph below shows the huge drop in U.S. employment in 2020.

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In 2020 Arizona is doing better than the U.S with employment where in 2008 and 2009 Arizona
was worse than the U.S.
Initial jobless claims followed the U.S. as a whole.

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In continuing jobless claims, Arizona had some delays starting programs because the State
was swamped with claims.
He noted the huge drop in retail sales in March and April then a recovery beginning in May.

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Contracting sales activity held up throughout the downturn.

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Mr. McGuire provided a review of the overall situation with the State. The 2009 early forecast
for the State’s general fund shortfall was $16 billion. Now the forecasted shortfall is $1.7 billion.
He also noted the available resources and/or offsets.

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The slide below indicates that the State’s General Fund bottom line should be fine.
Mr. McGuire reviewed the slide below for Arizona noting that retail sales, population growth,
and single-family permits are probably forecasted too low.
He explained that Maricopa County business activity is measured by taxable sales in the month
in which the activity took place. Both contracting and retail remain positive throughout this
event. Restaurants, bars, and amusements were all above 5% before the pandemic, but have
not yet recovered from this event.

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The slide below indicates that Maricopa County employment is performing better than the U.S.
and the State of Arizona .
Mr. McGuire reviewed the following slide and noted that the retail sales and population growth
numbers are probably too low and will bounce back significantly. He also reviewed other
positive indicators for Maricopa County.

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Mr. McGuire provided an overview of expenditure limitation that was enacted by voters in 1980
and explained the purpose of the limitations.
He said the program is now 40 years old; and there continues to be challenges which Mr.
McGuire reviewed. He noted that positive steps are required and provided suggestions on what
those steps might be.

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He gave pertinent observations below on the explosion of debt and it is now $81,200 per person
in the U.S.
Mr. McGuire stated if the average interest rate paid on U.S. debt in 2000 was used on the debt
in 2020, the interest on the debt would be $1.7 trillion and would be 39.6% of the budget.
Interest on the debt is now bigger than Social Security and Medicare together.

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The numbers illustrated below are from earlier in the week and Mr. McGuire provided more up-
to-date statistics.

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As shown below consumer confidence fell but bounced back up. There was a phenomenal
increase. The overall index was up by 15.5% from 86 to 102. This is the largest jump in almost
17 years. This is very positive because it indicates consumers believe the U.S. will get through
the pandemic.
Mr. McGuire reviewed the bad news and why it caused a negative effect on the economy.
He then provided the good news and its positive effect on the economy.

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Mr. McGuire named the reasons below as a positive bottom line for the economy.
Chairman Hickman thanked Mr. McGuire and noted how helpful the information is as the
County moves into the budget process for the coming year.
Supervisor Chucri said he had a three-part question. He said he understands and has seen
how strong construction is in Maricopa County, but he has also witnessed how construction

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costs have increased dramatically. Lumber has gone up 60% in some cases. This could
adversely affect new construction and make it unaffordable to purchase a new home. Mr.
McGuire stated there will be some slow-down but this is more of a supply issue. He explained
that If there was a shutdown in April or May, past supplies are being used and are beginning
to hit a low point. He said with the reopening of activity, that some of the short-term supplies
will mitigate itself. It could cause a slow-down of the temporary increase in costs.
Supervisor Chucri asked about car sales and Mr. McGuire said car sales held up, but also ran
into supply chain issues. Due to factories being closed, there were no new cars being delivered
into the lots. This caused a drop in sales but due to supply and not demand.
Supervisor Chucri noted that hotels are not expected to return to a sense of normalcy until
2023. He asked if Arizona might weather this storm. Mr. McGuire said that some operators will
not be able to continue and the key to recovery will be air travel. If air travel restrictions ease,
more people can travel to Arizona from, for example, Canada.
Supervisor Gates thanked Mr. McGuire for his presentation. He noted that over the years the
presentations have indicated slow growth in migration in Maricopa County. He asked if there
will be a return to the historic levels of migration. Mr. McGuire stated there could be a significant
increase due to high-tech companies in San Francisco closing. The individuals who began to
work remotely are likely to move to Arizona for the decrease in the cost of living versus
California. He also expects to see an increase in domestic manufacturing.
Supervisor Gates noted his concern about the debt issue, interest rates and inflation, etc. He
asked Mr. McGuire to expound on this issue. Mr. McGuire responded that interest rates will be
kept at zero until 2023. It is possible there will be changes in employment. Small businesses
and restaurants will close due to a decline in capital, but he expects them to be replaced by
other or larger national chains. Mr. McGuire said in this downturn, re-training of people who
have had to change jobs will not be as significant as in 2008-2011, allowing for a faster
recovery.
Supervisor Gallardo thanked Mr. McGuire for his presentation and asked why Arizona performs
so much better than the rest of the country regarding employment. Mr. McGuire explained it
involves several things such as Arizona having a positive attitude toward employment. The
permit people in the County and cities are good at processing new requests and has a great
labor force to build on. Arizona has a number of motivated employees and people are willing
to move here.
Chairman Hickman noted that Joy Rich as the County Manager has many people working
under her supervision. He worked with her setting the budget, and it was very difficult this year
because of the number of unknowns.
Ms. Rich informed the Board that she held a recent meeting to discuss where the County stood
with the existing fiscal budget. At first, they did not know what to expect, however, the County
is exceeding expectations. She noted there are still many unknowns, but Mr. McGuire’s
presentation has alleviated some of the fears they were facing. She said she has been
astounded by the number of permits being issued and continue to be issued. She said the
County is in very good shape and will enter the next budget process in good shape.
Mr. McGuire noted that every single forecast has been better than expected. He said the
bottom line is so much money has been pushed into the economy bringing it back.
Ms. Rich asked about the debt being built up and when will it have to be faced. Mr. McGuire
was unsure how to get out of debt because there is no way to catch up fast enough. He did
state he is not worried about Arizona and Maricopa County.
Supervisor Sellers thanked Mr. McGuire for his presentation. He has been looking at
technology growth and defense industry jobs. His main concern is in planning to deal with the

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growth moving forward. He asked what the County can do to ensure the quality of life is kept
the same.
Mr. McGuire noted that Arizona has grown for a long time and has been able to fund
infrastructure projects over the years. He has concerns that the state has gone from being net
investors in infrastructure to net consumers in infrastructure. Infrastructures are at capacity
now and the investment in the infrastructure has slowed down and has put pressure on the
budgets. He is concerned because there is a need for more infrastructure and investments
made in the 1960s and 1970s have been carrying us along. He said more infrastructure is
needed.
Chairman Hickman noted the many topics brought forward and thanked Mr. McGuire for
briefing the Board on these matters. He stated he believes there is going to be a problem with
growth and the infrastructure, and how to entice laborers and tradesmen to look at Arizona for
work and as a possible place to build a future for their children and grandchildren.
Mr. McGuire stated that Maricopa County government has been an effective government for
decades and he said the credit goes to the staff and Board as well.
2. EXECUTIVE SESSION
Vote to convene in Executive Session to consider the items on the Executive Agenda dated
Monday, October 05, 2020, for Board of Supervisors and relevant Special Districts pursuant to
the statutory authority listed for each item.
Motion to approve by Supervisor Jack Sellers, seconded by Supervisor Bill Gates
Ayes: Clint Hickman, Jack Sellers, Bill Gates, Steve Chucri, Steve Gallardo
MEETING RECESSED
Chairman Hickman recessed executive session to reconvene in open session.
OPEN SESSION RECONVENED
Chairman Hickman reconvened open session to consider the following agenda item.
OPEN SESSION
3. Maricopa County V. Purdue Pharma
Take action as directed in Executive Session on October 5, 2020, regarding Maricopa County
V. Purdue Pharma (C-06-21-218-X-00)
Motion was made by Supervisor Sellers to approve the One Arizona Opioid Settlement
Memorandum of Understanding between the State of Arizona and Maricopa County and
delegate authority to County Attorney Allister Adel to sign the agreement on behalf of Maricopa
County, seconded by Supervisor Gallardo
Ayes: Clint Hickman, Jack Sellers, Bill Gates, Steve Chucri, Steve Gallardo

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MEETING ADJOURNED
There being no further business to come before the Board, the meeting was adjourned.
______________________________
Clint Hickman, Chairman of the Board
ATTEST:
____________________________
Fran McCarroll, Clerk of the Board