PROJECT FALCON FIVE; IMPACT ANALYSIS.PDF

Project
Falcon Five
Impact
Analysis
February 2021

Impact Analysis
Impact Analysis
Overview
Maricopa County has requested an analysis of Project Falcon Five’s impact over the next 10
years to demonstrate the economic value the company will generate in the county.
Based on the assumptions outlined below, Project Falcon Five will generate an estimated
$668,455 in direct tax revenues and an additional $130,385 in indirect tax revenues for a
total of $771,840 in tax revenue to Maricopa County over a 10-year period.
In 10 years this company will directly create an estimated $109.6 million of personal income,
plus an additional $39.1 million in indirect personal income for a total of $148.6 million.
Over a 10-year period Project Falcon Five will create $1.2 billion in economic output, with
$1.1 billion in direct economic output, and $127.9 million in indirect output.
Assumptions
Total Employment at the end of 10 Years: 205 jobs
Annual Payroll at the end of 10 Years: $11.9 million
Total Square Feet of Property: 150,000 square feet by Year 1
Total Real Property Improvement Investment: $25.8 million
Total Personal Property Investment: $22.1 million
Project will receive FTZ
10-Year Economic Impact to Maricopa County
Impact Jobs Personal Income Economic Output Revenues
Direct 205 $109,573,784 $1,057,535,806 $668,455
Indirect 79 $39,059,337 $127,907,743 $103,385
Total 284 $148,633,121 $1,185,443,549 $771,840

Impact Analysis
Direct Revenue and Economic Impact
Year Jobs Personal Income Output Revenues
2021 95 $6,065,651 $58,541,771 $133,581
2022 159 $9,567,486 $92,339,236 $54,490
2023 184 $11,006,978 $106,232,281 $67,935
2024 200 $11,685,499 $112,780,938 $64,856
2025 205 $11,874,695 $114,606,930 $66,327
2026 205 $11,874,695 $114,606,930 $59,427
2027 205 $11,874,695 $114,606,930 $57,978
2028 205 $11,874,695 $114,606,930 $56,333
2029 205 $11,874,695 $114,606,930 $54,524
2030 205 $11,874,695 $114,606,930 $53,004
Total 205 $109,573,784 $1,057,535,806 $668,455
Indirect Revenue and Economic Impact
Year Jobs Personal Income Output Revenues
2021 40 $2,162,199 $7,080,560 $5,722
2022 64 $3,410,484 $11,168,324 $9,027
2023 73 $3,923,614 $12,848,672 $10,386
2024 78 $4,165,484 $13,640,725 $11,026
2025 79 $4,232,926 $13,861,577 $11,204
2026 79 $4,232,926 $13,861,577 $11,204
2027 79 $4,232,926 $13,861,577 $11,204
2028 79 $4,232,926 $13,861,577 $11,204
2029 79 $4,232,926 $13,861,577 $11,204
2030 79 $4,232,926 $13,861,577 $11,204
Total 79 $39,059,337 $127,907,743 $103,385
Total Revenue and Economic Impact
Year Jobs Personal Income Output Revenues
2021 135 $8,227,850 $65,622,331 $139,303
2022 223 $12,977,970 $103,507,560 $63,517
2023 257 $14,930,592 $119,080,953 $78,321
2024 278 $15,850,983 $126,421,663 $75,882
2025 284 $16,107,621 $128,468,507 $77,531
2026 284 $16,107,621 $128,468,507 $70,631
2027 284 $16,107,621 $128,468,507 $69,182
2028 284 $16,107,621 $128,468,507 $67,537
2029 284 $16,107,621 $128,468,507 $65,728
2030 284 $16,107,621 $128,468,507 $64,208
Total 284 $148,633,121 $1,185,443,549 $771,840

Impact Analysis
Property Tax Analysis
Property Taxes
Year
Total Company Personal
2021 $24,859 $26,880 $2,021
2022 $29,416 $31,438 $2,022
2023 $33,423 $35,446 $2,023
2024 $35,482 $37,506 $2,024
2025 $36,395 $38,420 $2,025
2026 $36,078 $38,104 $2,026
2027 $34,629 $36,656 $2,027
2028 $32,984 $35,012 $2,028
2029 $31,175 $33,204 $2,029
2030 $29,655 $31,685 $2,030
Total $324,096 $344,351 $20,255

Impact Analysis
Impact Analysis
About GPEC Economic Impact Model
The Greater Phoenix impact model calculates economic and revenue impacts of new
business in the region. The underlying theory behind this regional model is that all
communities benefit when a new business locates in the region, both in terms of employed
residents and new revenues. The purpose of the model is to show how this distribution of
economic benefits may occur.
Economic Impact
The impact model uses county-level multipliers from the Minnesota IMPLAN Group for
Maricopa County to calculate direct and indirect impact on specific communities in the
Greater Phoenix region. The model also calculates economic impact to the county and state
economies in terms of new jobs, output, and revenue generated. In addition to jobs, new
businesses create new consumer spending throughout. The payroll from the new
businesses can be converted into effective buying income. On a regional basis, effective
buying income is distributed across retail and service categories based on spending
patterns from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Revenue Impact
Direct revenue impacts include revenues generated directly by the businesses, based on
project information such as real property values, employment, direct sales, and local and
nonlocal purchases. Additional revenues generated by related supplier and consumer jobs,
and supported residents are included in the indirect and total impact results. All revenue
projections are in current dollars.
Disclaimer
The results from this analysis suggest only one possible scenario based on given project
parameters and assumptions, and do not exclude other development possibilities under
different assumptions. The economic impact model serves as a tool for basic quantitative
evaluations for economic development projects. The results are based on the current
economic structure of the communities, and current tax rates. The results of the model are
order-of-magnitude estimates and are intended only as a general guide as to show how
businesses and development projects may impact the region.