GPEC UPS ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS.PDF

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ECONOMIC COUNCIL gpec.org BUCKEYE EL MIRAGE GLENDALE PEORIA SURPRISE YOUNGTOWN

I ID Greater Phoenix
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS ECONOMIC COUNCIL
CITY OF GOODYEAR IMPACT ANALYSIS
December 2017
Overview
Maricopa County has requested an analysis of the projected economic and revenue impact of the
proposed UPS project in the City of Goodyear and Maricopa County over the next 10 years.
Based on the assumptions outlined below, Goodyear will receive an estimated $9.4 million in direct
tax revenues and an additional $4.8 million in indirect tax revenues for a total of $14.2 million in
tax revenue over a 10 year period.
Over 10 years UPS directly creates an estimated $429.2 million of personal income, plus an
additional $210.7 million indirectly for a total of $639.9 million in personal income. Also, over a 10
year period the project creates an estimated $979.6 billion in direct economic output to the City of
Goodyear along with an additional $660.6 million in indirect economic output for a total of nearly
$1.64 billion in total economic output.
Assumptions
Total Employment at the end of 10 years: 500 full-time, 1,000 part-time
NOTE: In this analysis a part-time position will be treated as 1/2 of a full time position.
Total Payroll at the end of 10 Years: $51,012,000
Total Square Feet of Property: 250,000 additional square feet
NOTE: Analysis excludes economic impact and real property revenues from existing 618,000
square feet
Total Real Property Improvement Investment: $32 million
Total Personal Property Investment: $105 million
10-Year Economic Impact to City of Goodyear
FTE JOB ECONOMIC OUTPUT REVENUES
Direct 1,000 $429,235,560 $979,579,091=1.11=
•
Indirect 614 $210,686,042 $660,612,781 $4,831,090
Total 1,614 $639,921,601 $1,640,191,879 $14,201,525
2 N Central Ave. Suite 2500 1 Phoenix, A7 85004 I 602 256 7700 1 gpec org

I ID Greater Phoenix
ECONOMIC COUNCIL
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS
December 2017
Goodyear Direct Revenue and Economic Impact
YEAR FTE JOBS PERSONAL INCOME r- UTPUT REVENUES
2017 111r- 106-1IIr- $3,451,9601= $7,87,902 $356,290
2018 374 $17,687,592 $40,365,704 $628,595
2019 1,000 $51,012,000 $116,416,937 $1,285,227
2020 1,000 $51,012,000 $116,416,937 $1,020,896
2021 1,000 $51,012,000 $116,416,937 $1,025,296
2022 1,000 $51,012,000 $116,416,937 $1,025,752
2023 1,000 $51,012,000 $116,416,937 $1,021,483
2024 1,000 $51,012,000 $116,416,937 $1,013,107
2025 1,000 $51,012,000 $116,416,937 $1,002,353
2026 1,000 $51,012,000 $116,416,937 $991,435
Total 1,000 $429,235,560 $979,579,099 $9,370,435
Goodyear Indirect Revenue and Economic Impact
EAR E JO PERSONAL INCOME OUTPUT REVENUES
2017 42 $1,694,364 $5,312,734 $38,852
2018 213 $8,681,780 $27,221,998 $199,076
2019 614 $25,038,737 $78,509,757 $574,145
2020 614 $25,038,737 $78,509,757 $574,145
2021 614 $25,038,737 $78,509,757 $574,145
2022 614 $25,038,737 $78,509,757 $574,145
2023 614 $25,038,737 $78,509,757 $574,145
2024 614 $25,038,737 $78,509,757 $574,145
2025 614 $25,038,737 $78,509,757 $574,145
2026 614 $25,038,737 $78,509,757 $574,145
Total 614 $210,686,042 $660,612,781 $4,831,090
Goodyear Total Revenue and Economic Impact
Imo gill L INCOME r- OUTPUT REVENUES
2017 148 $5,146,332 $13,190,636 $395,142
2018 587 $26,369,372 $67,587,701 $827,670
2019 1,614 $76,050,737 $194,926,693 $1,859,373
2020 1,614 $76,050,737 $194,926,693 $1,595,042
2021 1,614 $76,050,737 $194,926,693 $1,599,441
2022 1,614 $76,050,737 $194,926,693 $1,599,898
2023 1,614 $76,050,737 $194,926,693 $1,595,628
2024 1,614 $76,050,737 $194,926,693 $1,587,253
2025 1,614 $76,050,737 $194,926,693 $1,576,498
2026 1,614 $76,050,737 $194,926,693 $1,565,580
Total 1,614 $639,921,601 $1,640,191,879 $14,201,525
2 N Central Ave. Suite 2500 1 Phoenix, Al 85004 I 602 256 7700 1 gpec org

I ID Greater Phoenix
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS ECONOMIC COUNCIL
MAR ICOPA COUNTY REVENUE ANALYSIS
December 2017
Overview
Maricopa County requested an economic impact analysis of UPS' impact on the City of Goodyear and
Maricopa County over the next 10 years to demonstrate the economic value the company has
generated in the region.
In 10 years UPS directly creates an estimated $6.3 million of direct revenue, plus an additional $6
million in indirect revenue for a total of $12.3 million in total revenues for Maricopa County.
Assumptions
Total Employment at the end of 10 years: 500 full-time, 1,000 part-time
NOTE: In this analysis a part-time position will be treated as 1/2 of a full time position.
Total Payroll at the end of 10 Years: $51,012,000
Total Square Feet of Property: 250,000 additional square feet additional
NOTE: Analysis excludes economic impact and real property revenues from existing 618,000
square feet
Total Real Property Improvement Investment: $32 million
Total Personal Property Investment: $105 million
10-Year Economic Impact to Maricopa County
IRECT REVENUE INDIRECT REVENUE TOTAL REVENUES
Total $6,346,661 $6,001,568 $12,348,227
Maricopa County Revenues
EAR DIRECT REVENUE INDIRECT REVENUE TOTAL REVENUES
2017 $134,694 I $48,455 $183,149
2018 $332,545 $247,697 $580,242
2019 $781,021 $713,177 $1,494,198
2020 $734,340 $713,177 $1,447,517
2021 $738,360 $713,177 $1,451,536
2022 $738,776 $713,177 $1,451,953
2023 $734,876 $713,177 $1,448,053
2024 $727,224 $713,177 $1,440,401
2025 $717,399 $713,177 $1,430,576
2026 $707,426 $713,177 $1,420,602
Total $6,346,661 $6,001,568 $12,348,227
2 N Central Ave. Suite 2500 1 Phoenix, A7 85004 I 602 256 7700 1 gpec org

I ID Greater Phoenix
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS ECONOMIC COUNCIL
December 2017
About GPEC Economic Impact Model
The Greater Phoenix impact model calculates economic and revenue impacts of new business in the
region. The underlying theory behind this regional model is that all communities benefit when a new
business locates in the region, both in terms of employed residents and new revenues. The purpose
of the model is to show how this distribution of economic benefits may occur.
Economic Impact
The impact model uses county-level multipliers from the Minnesota IMPLAN Group for Maricopa
County to calculate direct and indirect impact on specific communities in the Greater Phoenix
region. The model also calculates economic impact to the county and state economies in terms of
new jobs, output, and revenue generated. In addition to jobs, new businesses create new consumer
spending throughout. The payroll from the new businesses can be converted into effective buying
income. On a regional basis, effective buying income is distributed across retail and service
categories based on spending patterns from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Revenue Impact
Direct revenue impacts include revenues generated directly by the businesses, based on project
information such as real property values, employment, direct sales, and local and nonlocal
purchases. Additional revenues generated by related supplier and consumer jobs, and supported
residents are included in the indirect and total impact results. All revenue projections are in current
dollars.
Disclaimer
The results from this analysis suggest only one possible scenario based on given project parameters
and assumptions, and do not exclude other development possibilities under different assumptions.
The economic impact model serves as a tool for basic quantitative evaluations for economic
development projects. The results are based on the current economic structure of the communities,
and current tax rates. The results of the model are order-of-magnitude estimates, and are intended
only as a general guide as to show how businesses and development projects may impact the region.
2 N Central Ave. Suite 2500 1 Phoenix, A7 85004 1 602 256 7700 1 gpec org

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