FY 2015 FISCAL UPDATE_08182014.PDF

FY 2015 FISCAL UPDATE
Maricopa County
Office of Management and Budget
August 18, 2014

FY 2014 Forecast to Actual Variance
after 3rd Close
FORECAST ACTUAL VARIANCE
General Fund
Operating Revenue 1,065,626,176 1,073,096,388 7,470,212 .70%
Operating Expenditures 1,041,543,741 1,033,568,679 7,975,062 .77%
Non Recurring Revenue 9,131,250 9,151,428 20,178 .22%
Non Recurring Expenditures 178,187,802 180,258,812 -2,071,010 -1.16%
Total General Fund Variance 13,394,442
Detention Fund
Operating Revenue 338,122,679 340,848,333 2,735,654 .81%
Operating Expenditures 338,408,758 335,131,915 3,276,813 .97%
Non Recurring Revenue 1,723,577 1,723,577 0 .00%
Non Recurring Expenditures 13,464,573 13,507,264 -42,691 -.32%
Total Detention Fund Variance 5,959,806
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Maricopa County State-Shared
Sales Tax Year-over-Year Growth
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0% 5.0%
4.0% 4.1% 4.1%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Actual Most Likely Pessimistic
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Forecast Values from Elliott D. Pollack and Co., July 2014

Maricopa County State-Shared
Sales Tax YTD Year-over-Year Growth
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0% 5.0%
4.0% 4.1% 4.1%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Actual Most Likely Pessimistic
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Forecast Values from Elliott D. Pollack and Co., July 2014

State Shared Sales Tax
$544.4
$550.0
$518.5
$503.7
$500.0 $491.5
$480.4
$482.0
$461.0 $468.1
$462.6
$457.8 $445.8
$450.0
Millions $444.3
$418.6
$418.6
$400.0 $397.7
$394.9
$400.5
$385.5
$357.5 FY 2015 Risk $5.5 Million
$350.0 $366.3
Most Likely Pessimistic
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Forecast Values from Elliott D. Pollack and Co., July 2014

Maricopa County State-Shared VLT
Year-over-Year Growth
20.0%
15.0%
10.0% 9.0%
5.7%
5.0%
3.7%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
Actual Most Likely Pessimistic
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Forecast Values from Elliott D. Pollack and Co., July 2014

Maricopa County State-Shared VLT
YTD Year-over-Year Growth
20.0%
15.0%
10.0% 9.0%
5.7%
5.0%
3.7%
0.0%
-5.0%
-10.0%
-15.0%
Actual Most Likely Pessimistic
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Forecast Values from Elliott D. Pollack and Co., July 2014

Vehicle License Tax
$150.7
$150.0
$144.9
$143.5
$139.3
$138.0 $139.0
$140.0
$138.6
$132.8 $134.3
$130.0 $125.7 $130.0
$122.6 $126.0 $125.4
Millions
$118.2
$120.0
$118.2
$116.1
$116.3
$110.0 $113.7 $113.4
FY 2015 Risk $2.8 Million
$100.0
Most Likely Pessimistic
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Forecast Values from Elliott D. Pollack and Co., July 2014

Maricopa County Jail Excise Tax
Year-over-Year Growth
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0% 6.2%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0% 5.1%
3.0% 2.5%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Actual Most Likely Pessimistic
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Forecast Values from Elliott D. Pollack and Co., July 2014

Maricopa County Jail Excise Tax
YTD Year-over-Year Growth
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0% 6.2%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0% 5.1%
3.0% 2.5%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Actual Most Likely Pessimistic
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Forecast Values from Elliott D. Pollack and Co., July 2014

Jail Excise Tax
$170.0 $167.3
$159.1
$160.0
$150.5 $153.8
$150.0
$145.4
$147.0
$142.2
$138.2
$137.9
$140.0 $140.3
$133.9
$133.4
Millions
$130.0
$124.6
$119.1 $124.6
$120.0
$116.9
$118.1
$110.0
$112.5
$107.4 FY 2015 Risk $1.9 Million
$107.1
$100.0
Most Likely Pessimistic
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Forecast Values from Elliott D. Pollack and Co., July 2014

General Fund Reserves
*Includes $25 million appropriated as non recurring contingency and $129.3 million
in the capital fund for future capital and IT projects
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General Fund Operating
Contingency
Most Likely State Shared Sales and VLT $599,158,824
Pessimistic State Shared Sales and VLT 587,490,733
Difference 11,668,091
Divided by 2 5,834,046
Uses in Tentative Budget to Balance 99,359
Tentative Budget 5,734,687
Tentative to Final Change 107,977
Adopted Budget $5,627,010
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State Issues
• Preliminary FY 2014 ending balance is
$(66) million less than forecasted.
• JLBC estimates that lower base could
result in revenue shortfall of $(113) million
in FY 2015.
• K-12 ruling adds an additional $317
million of spending in FY 2015 per JLBC.
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Summary
• Caution is necessary as the fiscal year
progresses.
• Operating contingency should be
preserved for potential revenue shortfalls.
• State of Arizona’s fiscal uncertainties must
be carefully monitored as we prepare for
FY 2016 budget.
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