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Table 3

Experiences of a Rail Yard Community: Life Is Hard - PMC

Community Challenges and Suggestions for Positive Change

Community

Challenge

Suggestions for Improvement

Noise

¢ Our research team suggests that a larger vegetation border surrounding the
entire rail yard perimeter would help to reduce noise pollution and strategic
plant selection has been proven effective for noise reduction (Fan, Zhiyi, Zhujun,
& Jiani, 2010; Onder & Kockbeker, 2012). The rail yard has contributed funding
for a vegetation border on a nearby street, and a larger border would be even
more beneficial.

e Better insulation and thicker windows would reduce noise, especially for those
residents living within a few blocks of the rail yard. Quiet Solutions, a
California-based soundproofing manufacturer, has developed a product line that

can be applied to existing walls to reduce transmission of sound (Manuel, 2005).

Since most noise complaints were associated with close residential proximity to
the rail yard, one recommendation was that the San Bernardino Railyard (SBR)
support and assist nearby residents with the cost of improved insulation and
new windows for their homes.

e Participants requested that the rail yard consider adjusting rail yard schedules to
decrease overnight traffic, when most residents are sleeping.

e Our research team suggested universities and research institutions possibly
conduct systematic assessments to monitor noise pollution around the rail yard
and throughout the community and identify steps to mitigate impact and

improve community health and quality of life.

Poor air quality

° Currently a small vegetation border exists between the rail yard and some
homes. To improve air quality and reduce noise, a carefully planned, robust
vegetation border should be planted to surround the perimeter of the rail yard,
especially in areas where homes share a retaining wall with the rail yard. With
strategic planning, urban vegetation has been shown to reduce atmospheric
pollutants (Morani, Nowak, Hirabayashib, & Calfapietraa, 2011; Nowak, 2000;
Nowak, Crane, & Stevens, 2006).

e Community members suggested moving the entrance of the SBR to a location
farther away from homes. Community participants reported that this has been
requested: many times but has not been implemented. The relocation of the
entrance to the SBR should be reevaluated and a top priority.

¢ Community participants suggested that the rail yard should take an active rolein

monitoring and reducing the idling of semitrailer trucks in residential areas.
° Participants requested increased.use of less polluting, “clean engines” at SBR.

https://www.ncbi.nim.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4486117/

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3/15/23, 4:28 PM Experiences of a Rail Yard Community: Life Is Hard - PMC

- The health and environmental challenges faced by this community are most likely a common phe-
nomenon faced by communities in close proximity to major goods movement facilities across the
nation. Given the gravity of the situation and their challenges, the needs of this community and
similar communities should be addressed by policy leaders and advocates taking a Health in All
Policies Approach (HiAP). According to the National Association of County and City Health Officials
(NACCHO), HiAP is a change in the systems that determine how policy decisions are developed
and implemented to ensure that policy decisions do not negatively impact determinants of health,
but rather strive for beneficial effects (NACCHO, 2013). HiAP is an innovative and strategic ap-
proach through which policies are created and implemented, emphasizing the need for input and
collaboration across industry and sectors to ultimately achieve common health goals. The enor-
mity and complexity of the desperate conditions faced by the community residents call for the use
of a HiAP approach in addressing their health and environmental challenges. Only through a coor-
dinated effort from numerous surrounding key government, business, and institutional agencies
will positive improvements be implemented and sustained. Linking community planning to goals
of increasing population health and decreasing exposure to harmful risk factors can be success-
fully implemented and sustained (Morland, Wing, Diez Roux, & Poole, 2002; Pucher & Dijkstra,
2003). A combined approach focusing on the goods movement communities and prevention that
addresses the multitude of factors determining their health will get at the heart of the problem
that is drastically and negatively influencing the health trajectory of the community members (Bell
& Standish, 2005).

Limitations

Given the qualitative nature of our study, some noteworthy limitations are present. The informa-
tion we gained is the opinions of a sample of our target community and may not represent the
views of all community members. We conducted systematic, theoretical sampling to recruit partici-
pants from each community stratum to accurately represent community demographics, however.
As a result we managed to recruit an ethnically diverse group of community participants, from
varying educational backgrounds and work profiles, including the unemployed and homeless.

Conclusion

Our inquiry was successful in providing important insights into the life of community members
who live adjacent to a rail yard that has been identified as a major source of pollution. Our find-
ings suggest that future efforts to reduce exposure to air pollution must take into consideration
other major community challenges, including increased access to health care and a reduction in
community violence. Most importantly a need exists for a coordinated effort of governmental and
private entities to strategically address these challenges and provide support for this truly under-
served and isolated community. A systematic approach should be taken by policy leaders and ad-
vocates with policy development grounded in a HiAP addressing communities across the nation
that are impacted by the goods movement industry. As we all are the beneficiaries of inexpensive
goods shipped through this and other container yards, we have an ethical obligation to support
positive community improvements for those who carry an undue health burden as a side effect of
our access to inexpensive goods.

https://www.ncbi.nim.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC-4486117/ 12/16

3/15/23, 4:28 PM Experiences of a Rail Yard Community: Life Is Hard - PMC

, Acknowledgments

This research was funded by the South Coast Air Quality Management District/BP West Coast
Products Oversight Committee, LLC, grant # 659005 and also supported by National Institutes of
Health #1P20MD006988.

Contributor Information

Rhonda Spencer-Hwang, School of Public Health, Loma Linda University.
Susanne Montgomery, School of Behavioral Health, Loma Linda University.
Molly Dougherty, School of Public Health, Loma Linda University.

Johanny Valladares, School of Public Health, Loma Linda University.

Sany Rangel, School of Public Health, Loma Linda University.

Peter Gleason, School of Public Health, Loma Linda University.

Sam Soret, School of Public Health, Loma Linda University.

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Dangers of Living Near Railroad Tracks | Pocketsense

a “s of Living Near Railroad Tracks

By Veronica Maier
Updated October 25, 2017

Railroad tracks are necessary for freight and passenger train traffic throughout the country. However, living near®
railroad tracks poses health and safety risks. For those reasons and because of the noise, home values are usually.
lower along railroad tracks. Weigh all options before purchasing or moving into a home close to the tracks.

Lear more

Asthma

A study completed by the Mayo Clinic measuring 3,970 people found asthma to be 40 to 70 percent more prevalent
-in.children who lived near a.railroad intersection. The pollution caused by the diesel engines permeate the air
around the tracks and the homes in the nearby area.

Train Track. Dangers

Railfad tracks are.often not fenced in and many children-have put themselves in danger when playing on-or near

the tracks. According to Operation Life Saver, “every three hours, a.person or vehicle is hit by a train.’ Living in close
proximity to railroad tracks increases the likelihood of your children walking near the tracks to get to or from school,

https://pocketsense.com/dangers-of-living-near-railroad-tracks-12591644.html 1/17

3/15/23, 4:36 PM Dangers of Living Near Railroad Tracks | Pocketsense

Electrocution

Railroad tracks and railways in big cities have electric tracks with electricity that is on at all times. Children and
adults who don't know the facts are at increased risk of electrocution. In a study by Network Rail, two-thirds of.
parents hadn't discussed railway safety with their children and half didn’t know the rail electricity was on at all times.
Sixty-nine people had been electrocuted in the 10 years prior to the study; 72 more suffered injuries, with 23 aged 15
or younger.

Cancer

Astate study in California found those living near railroad Stations, especially those with high traffic: volume, to-have.
higher risk for cancer due to exposure to diesel pollution from the trains. Factors to consider are proximity to the.
tracks or station, volume of trains, and freight percentage. Each of the mentioned factors increases the risk.

Traffic

At most train intersections, a long line of cars will Stop when waiting for a train to pass: These idling cars increase the»
pollution in the neighborhood and can contribute to impatient drivers and unsafe driving practices when the train

does pass.
[> x

REFERENCES WRITER BIO

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r
Things In ;
Brought to you by Sapling

Japan einen

Seriously Weird’
That Only Exist |

drivepedia.com (

Fatal Crashes

A study by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety showed that 9.2 teenage male drivers die in traffic accidents
for every 100 million vehicle miles. This was nearly double the death rate of 5.3 for teenage female drivers. The same
study showed a 2.5 death rate for all male drivers covering 100 million vehicle miles and 17 for all females.

Nonfatal Crashes

In 2010, male drivers from age 15 through 24 were at the wheel for 30 percent of alll injury accidents, compared to 28
percent for females. The costs showed a greater discrepancy, with young male drivers accounting for $19 billion in
3osts to $7 billion for females. For perspective, people aged 15 through 24 make up 14 percent of the United States
population.

Driving While Intoxicated

According to the National Highway Transport Safety Administration, 21 percent of teens in a fatal accident were
drinking at the time. By gender, alcohol contributed to 24 percent of teenage male drivers in a fatal crash and ll
percent of teenage girls. The percentage of drinkers isn’t as high with minor accidents. Across both sexes, 3 percent
of property-damage accidents came at the hands of a teenager who was drinking, and 4 percent of injury
accidents.

Seat Belt Use

Teen Drivers Source reports that 11.5 percent of teen drivers say they seldom -- or never -- use their seat belts. This
compares with the 7.7 percent of teenage female drivers who seldom belt themselves in. More than half of teens
killed in car crashes were not using their seat belts.

Text Messaging

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Brought

Behind the Numbers

While driver statistics raise questions about the differences in young male and young female drivers, insurance
companies suggest it’s just the makeup of teenage boys. Natural competitiveness fueled by testosterone means
teenage males are more likely to to take chances behind the wheel and will drink more. Boys are also more likely to
take more chances, log more miles, and collect more speeding tickets. But some factors remain common to both
genders. Major contributors to accidents include poor speed judgment, tailgating, distraction, and failure to see and

read road hazards as they come up.
x

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REFERENCES WRITER BIO

ie 6

By Debbie Mcrill

Diesel is a motor vehicle fuel for use in compression ignition engines. Diesel is typically extracted from crude oil,

- although biodiesel is a proven alternative. Biodiesel can be made from vegetable oils, recycled oil and animal fat. In
2008, approximately 18 percent of US. petroleum usage was from diesel fuel, Increasing diesel fuel economy is
environmentally important to decrease emissions and beneficial for saving money on fuel costs.

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Dangers of Living Near Railroad Tracks | Pocketsense

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3/15/23, 3:58 PM Impacts of climate change on operation of the US rail network - ScienceDirect

ScienceDirect

Transport Policy
Volume 75, March 2019, Pages 183-191

Impacts of climate change on operation of the US rail network

Paul Chinowsky? 9 5%, Jacob Helman , Sahil Gulati ‘, James Neumann ‘¢, Jeremy Martinich 4

Show more v

:= Outline | o§ Share 33 Cite

hitps://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2017.05.007 ~
Get rights and content

Under a Creative Commons license ” open access

Highlights

* Delays from temperature could cost $45 to $60 billion cumulatively by 2100.
* Sensor technologies could reduce costs of delay by an order of magnitude.
* The approach may inform adaptation planning for the U.S. rail network.

* Adaptations can reduce delays by focusing speed notices to specific locations.

Abstract

The rail network in the US is the largest network within any single country at 140,000 miles of Class 1
tracks. The network is predominantly focused on freight traffic with the exception of key passenger
corridors along the eastern seaboard and in the upper Midwest. This extensive rail network enhances
connectivity, but also raises the question of potential vulnerability to climate changes over the next century.
Specifically, projected changes in temperature highlight the vulnerability of tracks to temperature increases
and the accompanying issue of track expansion, which under current operating policies can lead to train
delays, and in the most extreme cases can lead to derailments. In this study, the issue of potential impacts to
the rail network are analyzed in terms of the cost of potential increases in delays that will occur due to

https:/Awww.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X16308198 1/23

3/15/23, 3:58 PM Impacts of climate change on operation of the US rail network - ScienceDirect
responses of train network operators to temperature increases. Impacts analyzed using a range of climate
models indicate that the rail network may incur an increase in delay-minute costs over typical historic costs
of between $25 and $45 billion cumulatively through 2100 under a low greenhouse gas emissions future,
and between $35 and $60 billion under a high emission scenario. However, these costs could be reduced by
up to an order of magnitude if‘current sensor technologies are, incorporated into tracks, coupled with

refinements to current speed reduction policies that better leverage temperature monitoring capabilities.

< | Previous Next >

1. Introduction

The primary freight and passenger rail network in the US comprises 140,000 miles of Class 1 rails operated
by seven railroad companies (Federal Railroad Administration, 2016). The rail network carries 40% of the
freight by distance traveled and 16% of the freight by weight each year. Put into context, each person in the
US requires 40t of freight to be moved each year either through direct goods purchased or indirectly
through bulk products such as coal which are required to generate electricity for individual users (Federal
Railroad Administration, 2016). The cost-effectiveness of rail transport and year-to-year dependence on the
rail network places the system within the scope of critical infrastructure that should be evaluated for its
continued reliability and effectiveness under climate change.

Climate change projections indicate that the number and severity of heat related events will increase both
in number as well as geographically, increasing concerns of impacts of climate change on the railroad
infrastructure (Ford et al., 2015). Climate change is a threat to the rail network due principally to projected
temperature increases, though indirect effects from changes in precipitation could also be important.
Thermal threats are due to the susceptibility of tracks to damage during periods of elevated temperatures
that exceed the operating conditions in the geographic location in which it was installed. Specifically, the
steel tracks are designed to operate in a narrow range that is based on the temperature in which it is
originally laid, known as the Design Neutral Temperature. When this temperature is exceeded, the ability of
the steel rails to support rail traffic begins to degrade. At extreme heat conditions, the continuously welded
rail tracks that make up the modern rail system will buckle due to expanding metal. For example, a typical
welded length of 1800 feet of rail can expand up to lin. per ten degrees of temperature increase (Wolf,
2005). In extreme heat conditions where temperature increases can be several times that, expansion and
offset can quickly exceed several inches which will lead to derailment if undetected. These expansion
conditions are known as “sun kinks” and will lead to failure if rail traffic is not reduced until temperatures
decline.

The complicating factor of climate change for the rail network is that the frequency and magnitude of these
extreme heat conditions is projected to increase, significantly in some instances, which increases the risk of
failures due to track expansion. Currently, the accepted practice for addressing these heat events is to reduce
the traffic on the affected areas by reducing the speed of the trains, or in extreme events, stopping traffic
completely for a period of time (Chagnon, 2006). The intent of these practices is to reduce the stress on the
weakened tracks during the highest temperature points during the day. The byproduct of these practices is a
delay in rail traffic as trains are forced to reduce speed or wait until temperatures return to a normal
operating level. The questions addressed in this study are: to what extent could these delays increase

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X16308198 2/23

3/15/23, 3:58 PM Impacts of climate change on operation of the US rail network - ScienceDirect

through the end of the century based on changes in temperature; and how could current technologies and
changes in operating practices mitigate these effects.

2. Background

‘

The issue of temperature impact on rails is not a current phenomenon. The issue was identified repeatedly
through the late 19th and early 20th centuries by researchers including Ryan (1946), Champion (1947), and
Hay, 1957, Hay, 1982. The primary factor identified in the early studies focused on the joints between the rail
sections. Prior to a change that began to occur in the 1950s and 1960s, rail tracks were characterized by a
jointed construction process. In this design, segments of track ranging from 30 to 60 feet were laid and then
joined through the use of plates with a gap left between the segments to allow for expansion. However,
significant variations in temperature above the neutral temperature at which the track was laid would lead
to misalignment between the sections due to excessive expansion and contraction of the rails.

A change in the design of tracks from the jointed design to the modern Continuous Welded Rail (CWR)
reduced the likelihood of misalignment due to temperature, but it did not eliminate the issue. In the new
design, sections of rail are welded together to create a single span of a quarter mile or more. This reduces
the noise associated with rails and creates an integrated rail surface that reduces wear on the wheels and
allows higher speeds. From the perspective of temperature, the CWR design increased the risk of track
deformations referred to as “sun kinks.”

Sun kinks are deformations that are introduced in rail when the weight of train cars put stress in areas that
are weakened due to excessive heat (Kish and Samavedam, 2013). In these situations, the rails are weakened
when the track temperature increases beyond the expected operating temperature as established by the
neutral temperature, or the temperature at which the rail was originally laid. When rails are weakened, the
downward and outward stress from the weight of the rail cars will push the rails out of alignment.
Currently, there is no accepted method to prevent this deformation as rail material is manufactured to a
global standard that is both cost-effective and long-lasting. However, to ensure safety and reduce the
occurrences of these sun kinks, a standard practice has been established of both reducing and slowing traffic
during periods of high temperature (Chagnon, 2906).

The use of temperature-based safety practices has increased in the last decade in many locations. In Great
Britain, the number of delays due to heat events continues to rise and has resulted in notable occurrences,
such as in 2003 when 137 railway buckles occurred compared to an annual average of 30-40 (Dobney et al.,
2008). Similarly, in the US, the occurrence of heat-related delays has increased as the number of extreme
heat events has similarly increased (Bruzek, Biess and Al-Nazer, 2013). In both cases, the resulting delays
have impacted industries as diverse as agriculture, energy, and automotive. The seven primary railroad
companies have adopted a practice of slowing rail traffic during hours when temperatures exceed what is
considered safe operating conditions. The specific amounts of reduction vary between the railroad
companies from an absolute reduction to a relative reduction below a prescribed maximum operating
speed. In either case, the rules intend to prioritize safety but impact operational efficiency. Although these
practices have been in place for an extended period of time, increasing occurrence of heat events have
brought these practices into greater visibility (Ferranti et al., 2016, Palin et al., 2013). In response to these
increasing delays, efforts have moved forward on several fronts including track design, sensor development,

and the modification of existing rules in attempts to mitigate the effect of increasing temperatures.

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Of the advances in reaction to temperature-based delays, sensor development is having the greatest initial
impact. The changes in track design and materials may have an impact over the long-term, but changing the
current track design specifications may prove too difficult and expensive to implement in the near-term or
mid-term. Similarly, changing practices that may impact human safety will require strong supporting
evidence. Therefore, the development of new temperature-sensors and associated electronic
communication capabilities may provide the near-term advance required to offset the increasing
temperature profiles (Hodge et al., 2015). This near-term potential is being realized by the greater
availability of sensors by a number of manufacturers (Davis, 2014).

3. Project methodology

This study estimates the impact of temperature increases on railroad infrastructure and evaluates
adaptation measures to alleviate the impact of the potential changes. The current rail study focuses on
determining the potential risk to the Class I rail network in the US from climate change. To accomplish this
task, the study methodology incorporates a model-based approach that combines climate change
projections with current data on rail inventory and volume. In this approach, the current rail system is
stressed with future climate projections to determine the potential vulnerabilities that exist in the physical
structure and the associated operations. Additionally, the potential for building resiliency into the system
through technological advances is explored in terms of the reductions in delay-minutes that can be
achieved. The modeling approach encompasses three primary steps; 1) estimate rail inventory and traffic
volumes; 2) develop climate scenarios to span a range of future outcomes; and 3) estimate historic
(baseline) and projected future climate risks to the rail network, measured by delay minutes and monetary
terms, and potential savings that could be realized with emerging technologies.

3.1. Rail inventory and volumes

The primary source for the rail inventory used in the current study was the National Transportation Atlas
Database (NTAD) (Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 2015). From this source, GIS shapefiles were obtained
for the railroads, rail bridges, and rail stations. The rail lines shapefile is a comprehensive file of all railroad
tracks in the US. Only active main line and sub main line (definitions provided in the GIS file as well as
standard terminology for rail ones) track were included in this analysis.

In addition to the base inventory of the rail system, the volume of traffic within the system was required to
model the cost of delays for distinct geographic areas. The Federal Railroad Administrations (FRA) Office of
Safety Analysis website regularly updates highway-rail crossing data for all rail lines in the US along with
numerous safety-related parameters. The number of trains passing each crossing during the day is compiled
based on the information received from railroad owners and operators.

The highway-rail crossings data indicated that for the rail lines under consideration, 152,656 unique
highway-rail crossings had daily rail volume data. Each rail crossing has corresponding GIS coordinates, and
therefore can be allocated into a specific climate grid. The average number of daily trains passing through
each grid was calculated from the volume data to provide the base number of trains that would be impacted
in each grid cell from each projected climate event. For the 2522 grid cells that contain non-zero train traffic
volume, the train traffic ranged from 1 to 141 trains per day. Combining this number with the temperature
projections described below, the model could project how many train trips would be affected by projected

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changes in temperature. The discussion on regional impact reflects the variation in this volume and climate

variation.

3.2. Climate projections

The climate projections used in the current study follow from the overall methodology being used in the
second phase of the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project (EPA, 2015) - two
“Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs) capture a range of plausible Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
emission futures and are simulated in five General Circulation Models (GCMs). The RCPs, originally
developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, are
identified by their approximate total radiative forcing in the year 2100, relative to year 1750: 8.5 W/m?
(RCP8.5) and 4.5W/m? (RCP4.5). RCP8.5 implies a future with continued high emissions growth with limited
efforts to reduce GHGs, whereas RCP4.5 represents a global GHG mitigation scenario. Comparing outcomes
under RCP8.5 with those of RCP4.5 not only captures a range of uncertainties and plausible futures, but also
provides information about the potential benefits of global GHG mitigation (i.e., how significant greenhouse
gas emissions mitigation can avoid or reduce impacts that are expected under RCP8.5).

The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) (Taylor et al., 2012) developed a large
inventory of climate simulations using GCMs driven by the RCP forcing scenarios. To provide localized
climate projections suitable for estimating impacts to rail infrastructure and to bias correct the projections
to improve consistency with the historic period (defined in this analysis as 1986-2005), the Localized
Constructed Analogs dataset (LOCA) (Bureau of Reclamation, 2016) was employed. The LOCA projections are
the primary dataset being used in the forthcoming Climate Science Special Report of the U.S. Global Change
Research Program's Fourth National Climate Assessment. The LOCA downscaled dataset provides daily
maximum and minimum temperatures, and daily precipitation values at 1/16 degree resolution from 2006
to 2100, along with a historical dataset extending back to 1950. The dataset was consolidated into 4% degree
resolution to correspond with the rail network inventory.

As in most impacts work, the selection of a subset of GCMs was necessary due to computational and
resource constraints. Five GCMs were chosen with the intent of ensuring that the subset captures a large
range of the variability in climate outcomes observed across the entire CMIP5 ensemble. The five selected
GCMs from CMIP5 (CCSM4, GISS-E2-R, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROCS5) cover a large range of the
variability across the entire ensemble in terms of annual and seasonal temperatures (Table 1).

Table 1. Change in average maximum summer temperature (°C).

RCP Model 2030 2050 2070

RCP 4.5 CANESM2 2.22 3.13 3.75
ccSM4 2.18 2.65 3.38
GISS-E2-R 1.16 1.83 2.07
HadGEM2-ES 2.65 4.00 4.67
MIROCS 2.10 2.81 3.36

RCP 8.5 CANESM2 2.51 3.99 5.25

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RCP Model 2030 2050 2070
cCSM4 2.44 3.62 4.79
GISS-E2-R 1.46 2.47 3.51
HadGEM2-Es 3.03 5.14 7.02
MIROCS 2.16 2.89 457

3.3. The software modeling environment

The analysis of the rail system for climate impacts centered around the use of the Infrastructure Planning
Support System (IPSS). The IPSS tool incorporates engineering knowledge, stressor-response algorithms and
climate projections to quantify potential vulnerabilities resulting from climate change for numerous
infrastructure types (Chinowsky and Arndt, 2012). Damage and replacement costs associated with increased
vulnerability and adaptation options are quantified and represent the incremental change in expenditures
associated with projected climate change for each environmental stressor and infrastructure type examined.
As such, the effect of climate change can be isolated from historical baseline maintenance costs. The IPSS
system has been used to examine infrastructure in a wide range of US contexts such as Alaskan
infrastructure, national road network analysis, and local storm surge analysis (Melvin et al., 2016;
Chinowsky et al., 2013). These studies are in addition to international contexts including national studies
throughout Africa and Asia (Schweikert et al., 2014, Espinet et al., 2016).

For the current study, the IPSS system was used to determine the impact of temperature changes on the
physical rail structure of the overall rail network. Although climate change also impacts precipitation levels,
the key concern in terms of rail operations is the projected increase in track temperatures. This concern is
due to the softening of rails and the associated physical damage that is caused by increased temperatures.

Quantifying the impact of increased temperatures on the rail system incorporates two components;
determining the potential increases in buckling failures, and estimating the potential increases in
temperature-based delays. The former is required to determine the increased likelihood that track buckles
will result in subsequent operation delays. The increase in buckling potential triggers an accepted operating
procedure that requires trains to reduce speed during conditions which may result in increased buckling.
Once the potential for increased buckling is identified, the second element estimates potential increases in
rail delays in accordance with the operating procedures that reduce speeds due to safety considerations.
Given the combination of projected buckling occurrences and projected increases in delays, delay-minutes
can be used to provide the metric of impact for the overall rail network. Once the delay-minutes are
determined for each segment of track, the delay minutes can be changed to cost impacts as the cost of delay
can be determined for both passenger and freight trains based on documented industry cost factors. In this
manner, the final impact of temperature increases is presented as specific cost impacts.

3.3.1. Current operating procedures

Currently, railroads utilize operating procedures that incorporate speed restrictions to avoid track buckling
events due to high temperatures. However, each railroad operator sets different speed orders for these high
temperature events. These restrictions are put in place with a blanket reduction in speed for operations

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occurring in these areas when the expected daily high exceeds a temperature that is deemed unsafe. These
restrictions typically occur in the afternoon and early evening between 1 pm and 7pm (Virginia Department
of Rail and Public Transport, 2008). Table 2 details railroad specific heat restrictions (Chagnon, 2006).

Table 2. Railroad heat restrictions.

Railroad Temperature (°F) Restricted speed
Amtrak 95° Passenger: Max 80mph
BNSF 85-115° Passenger: 7Omph to 50mph

Freight: 50mph to 40mph

CN 95° Passenger: Max 65mph
cSX 85° 20mph reduction from posted speed
UP 100-115° Passenger: 50mph

Freight: 40mph

These operating procedures result in operating delays (Historic Delays) due to fluctuations is weather on an
annual basis. Although these delays have been increasing in recent years due to increases in summer
temperatures, the operating procedures have remained consistent. However, the projected increases in
temperatures due to climate change are challenging the ability of rail operators to retain current operating
practices. The current study uses these historic practices to establish the vulnerability of the system to
climate change and uses an adaptation option to change these procedures to reduce the potential impact of
temperature increases.

3.3.2. Delay minute comparisons

The concept of delay-minutes has been introduced in previous studies to compare impacts on rail transport
(Dobney et al., 2008; US Climate Change Program, 2008). In this method, the estimated railroad delay is
determined based on the difference in the time required to complete a trip at the maximum posted speed
and the actual time taken for the trip (Cambridge Systematics, 2007). This difference is then multiplied by
the cost of delay to calculate the impact of reduced speeds.

Existing literature provides different approaches to calculate rail delay from extreme heat events (Dobney et
al., 2008, Nemry and Demirel, 2012). This study calculates train delay minutes at a grid level in accordance
with the granularity of the climate projections. Since impacts are limited to estimates at the grid level,
impacts are averaged over the inventory in that grid cell to reflect the granularity of the projection. In this
grid approach, the generalized approach is summarized as follows:

TDM = (z /S —L /s,) * son /H) (1)
g g9 6f g 0 d °

where
TDM,
Train Delay Minutes per grid

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Sr

Reduced Speed
So
Base speed :
lg
Total length of rail traveled per grid
Ha
Hours of speed order
Ho

Hours of rail road operation

In this method, train delay minutes are first calculated based on a speed restriction, the length of track in
the grid, and the number of hours in which the speed order will be put into effect. The specific speed
restriction used in the current modeling effort corresponds to the BNSF details seen in Table 1 as they
incorporate both freight and passenger safety rules.

Once the total delay minutes are calculated on a per grid basis, the delay minutes per year are calculated by
multiplying the delay minutes per grid by the average volume of trains per grid and the number of incident
days per grid. An incident day being defined as a day in which a speed order is put into place.

DM =TDM *T *I (2)
g g dod
where

DM,
Delay Minutes per grid per year

TDMg
Train Delay Minutes per grid

Ta
average number of trains per day

la
number of incident days

Finally, the delay minutes are quantified as costs using the following equation.

C=C *DM (3)
d m g
where
Ca
Cost of delay
Cm

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Cost per minute of delay

DM,
Delay Minutes per grid per year

The specific delay costs for bulk, intermodal and passenger trains are detailed in the cost modeling section.
The cost of delay is aggregated to the grid level by adding the cost of delay for different train types.

3,3.3. Design neutral temperature and track temperature

While the operating procedures put in place by the rail operators provide a broad guideline for
implementing speed reduction, the guidelines also suffer from a lack of specificity for local conditions. This
is generally due to the challenge of isolating risks to local rail conditions. Specifically, the challenge to
improving operating procedures is the challenge to identify track temperatures at individual locations.
However, research into the effects of temperature on rails provides a basis for modeling potential damages
as well as the potential savings that can be achieved through adaptations.

The modeling of historic and potential delays based on a sensor technology approach rather than a
temperature procedure approach begins with the concept of Design Neutral Temperatures. The Design
Neutral Temperature or Stress Free Temperature (SFT) of rail is the temperature for which the rail was
intended to operate in stress free condition. This is typically considered the temperature when the rail was
installed in a particular location and is considered the neutral temperature at which the rail functions at an
optimum level. This temperature also determines the threshold at which the rails are likely to experience
softening and bending due to the longitudinal forces on the rail. The stress free temperature that is used in
design is generally 75% of the expected maximum temperature of the region. This is also known as the %4
Tmax rule and can be seen in Eq. (4) (Nemry and Demirel, 2012).
SFT = $*T (4)
mex
The stress free temperature will gradually reduce with age due to a variety of causes such as typical
movement and shifting of the rails. In order to account for this degradation in the current effort, the average
baseline SFT for the lower 48 states was compared to the typical SFT distribution in order to calculate a
degradation factor (Kish and Samavedam, 1999). This factor was applied to more accurately reflect the SFT
of the overall rail network.

The second critical number that is required in the rail analysis is the track temperature at a given point in
time. The track temperature provides the basis for the likelihood of failure of steel tracks under a
combination of heat and stress. The track temperature is thus used as the main indicator of the likelihood
that the rail will fail under different operating scenarios. While the optimum practice is to measure track
temperature at multiple locations through temperature sensors, the amount of track owned by each railroad
company is substantial, which has made the widespread use of temperature sensors difficult from a cost-
benefit perspective. Therefore, a relationship between air and track temperature has been developed to
compensate for the lack of sensor data and approximate the track temperature. The relationship between
ambient air temperature and track temperature can be seen in Eq. (5) (Dobney et al., 2008).

Tat (5)

rail 2

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