FY 2026 ADOPTED BUDGET PRESENTATION - COUNTY.PDF
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FY 2026 BUDGET Adopted Budget Presentation June 23, 2025 1 MCSO Market Adjustments Goal – Improving compensation to retain staff and fill vacancies • Law Enforcement Officers • Provides a 10-15% pay increase for Deputy and ranked positions • Aligns new salary ranges more closely with market averages • Focuses funding on lowering turnover in Deputy positions • Emergency Dispatch • Provides a 5-10% pay increase for Emergency Operators, Dispatch, and management positions 2 MCSO Extradition Airplane • Kodiak 900 airplane improves the safety and efficiency of MCSO’s extradition operations • Increases passenger capacity resulting in improved productivity and safety • Extends range allowing for longer flights, multiple stops, and less commercial travel 3 Changes from Tentative to Proposed Final Budget 4 Item To Dept-Fund- Appropriation To Expenditure From Dept-Fund- Appropriation From Expenditure MCSO Airplane Purchase D500-100-AIR1 4,900,000 D470-100-NRNP* -4,900,000 MCSO Law Enforcement Market Adjustment D500-100-OPER D500-100-MEL0 D500-255-OPER 6,838,910 1,254,747 51,274 D470-100-OPER* D470-255-OPER* -8,093,657 -51,274 MCSO Dispatch Market Adjustment D500-100-OPER 373,310 D470-100-OPER* -373,310 MCSO Detention Retention Incentive Payment D500-100-NRNP D500-100-MEL1 D500-255-NRNP 118,404 21,528 3,024,684 D470-100-NRNP* D470-255-NRNP* -139,932 -3,024,684 Total 16,582,857 -16,582,857 *Contingency Request Property Tax Rate 5 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 FY 2026 1.3459 1.2473 1.2044 1.1591 1.1591 0.1792 0.1592 0.1536 0.1470 0.1428 0.0556 0.0505 0.0488 0.0470 0.0462 County Primary Flood Control Library Total Rate $1.3531 Total Rate $1.4570 Total Rate $1.5807 Total Rate $1.4068 Total Rate $1.3481 Maximum Levy vs Actual Levy – General Fund 6 $518 $538 $558 $581 $606 $628 $656 $684 $713 $746 $781 $816 $853 $892 $933 $973 $463 $492 $492 $478 $425 $410 $443 $471 $506 $536 $566 605 $640 656 643 659 $676 $704 $100 $175 $250 $325 $400 $475 $550 $625 $700 $775 $850 $925 $1,000 $1,075 Millions Maximum Levy Actual Levy Property Tax Levy Growth Comparison A v e r a g e % G r o w t h – F Y 2 0 2 1 - 2 0 2 5 7 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% % Growth Government Staff to Population Ratio Comparison A v e r a g e S t a f f p e r T h o u s a n d - F Y 2 0 2 2 - 2 0 2 5 8 11.7 11.0 10.7 9.5 8.7 7.8 7.4 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.0 6.0 5.9 4.6 3.6 3.3 2.3 2.1 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Staff to Population Government Staff Per Thousand Budget Calendar – Remaining Dates 9 August 18 Property Tax Levy Adoption www.roundsconsulting.com ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP Maricopa County – Economic and Policy Briefing June 2025 Jim Rounds Rounds Consulting Group 10 ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP roundsconsulting.com 11 What will be covered? • Brief update on the budget situation. • Brief update on select macroeconomic issues. • Issues to monitor. 11 ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP roundsconsulting.com 12 Budget Comparisons – Anticipating the Risk • MC’s budget grew by 5%/year over the last decade; AZ = 7%. • If the state utilized MC’s forecast procedure, the AZ budget would have $1.9B more in the bank right now. • MC was also the lone government entity that formally planned for the one-time revenues coming from the heightened federal stimulus spending. ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP roundsconsulting.com 13 “Real” Budget Figures • For FY 2026, the nominal budget will grow by 1.65% • But its -1.0% to -1.5% if we back out inflation. • This means you improved services and effectively reduced the budget…again! ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP roundsconsulting.com 14 FY 2026 Net Variance to the FY 2025 Revised Budget ($ Millions) (in Millions) FY 2023 Revised FY 2024 Revised FY 2025 Revised FY 2026 Recommended Increase / Decrease % Change Total Operating 2,409.84 2,564.51 2,600.09 2,667.77 67.68 2.60% Total Non-Recurring 2,071.26 1,804.74 1,290.94 1,287.35 -3.58 -0.28% Total County 4,481.10 4,369.25 3,891.02 3,955.12 64.10 1.65% Real DECREASE = -1.0% to -1.5% (if adj for inflation forecast) ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP roundsconsulting.com 15 Budget Comparisons – How the Larger Counties Performed: Source: US Census Bureau* Rank (Pop) County State July 1, 2024 Population* Total FY 25 Budget Spending per Person 1 Los Angeles California 9,757,179 $49,200,000,000 $5,042.44 2 Cook Illinois 5,182,617 $9,900,000,000 $1,910.23 3 Harris Texas 5,009,302 $4,100,000,000 $818.48 4 Maricopa Arizona 4,673,096 $3,900,000,000 $834.56 5 San Diego California 3,298,799 $8,500,000,000 $2,576.70 6 Orange California 3,170,435 $9,500,000,000 $2,996.43 7 Miami-Dade Florida 2,838,461 $12,800,000,000 $4,509.49 ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP roundsconsulting.com 16 Budgeted FTE’s – Increasing Efficiency *Recommended Budget Staff/Pop 3.52 3.47 3.45 3.37 3.39 3.41 3.41 3.40 3.30 3.22 3.19 3.18 3.13 3.18 3.17 3.12 3.08 13,471 13,348 13,387 13,277 13,572 13,896 14,157 14,339 14,151 14,077 14,131 14,323 14,348 14,827 15,076 15,062 15,147 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026* ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP roundsconsulting.com 17 Where is the risk going forward? - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 FY 2024 Budget FY 2024 Forecast FY 2024 Actual FY 2025 Budget FY 2025 Forecast FY 2026 Recommended $926 $935 $952 $954 $959 $987 $270 $273 $279 $277 $280 $288 $211 $212 $213 $218 $217 $223 DOLLARS (MILLIONS) Sales Tax Jail Tax VLT ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP roundsconsulting.com 18 Potential Forecast/Budget Risks • Tariffs, • Medicaid, • Stagflation, • Housing, • Fed govt. spending, • Fed Res Board, • State forced impacts, • Clean air regulations, • Others. www.roundsconsulting.com ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP Questions? 19 Thank you 20