PowerPoint Presentation (Added on 12/14/21)
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Glendale Economic Growth Scorecard December 14, 2021 Purpose of the Scorecard • Review historic and projected trends for various socioeconomic factors • Compared to Maricopa County and select benchmark cities • Illustrate how Glendale has transformed into a growth leader in the metro area over the past 5 to 7 years • How have fiscal and annexation policies put in place by the Council created a pathway for this transformation Topic Areas • Population • Jobs-Housing Balance • Labor Force Growth and Commuting • Fiscal Sustainability-sales tax, general fund revenues, one-time fees, debt • Land Use and Development Activity • Office/Industrial Built Space Inventory Population • Glendale has added over 21,000 new residents since 2010, with 64% of the growth occurring since 2015 • At the same time share of county population has dropped due in part to lagged recovery from the Great Recession in the West Valley • Also intentional based on council strategy to focus on commercial/industrial development, infill and workforce housing instead of single family 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Glendale Population Growth 2010-2040 Glendale Population Share of County Jobs per Capita • Measure of balance between residential and nonresidential development • At a ratio of 0.40 in 2020, Glendale is well ahead of other West Valley cities like Surprise, Avondale, Buckeye and Peoria, and similar to Goodyear • Glendale’s ratio has increased more sharply since 2010 than other cities • Glendale is the only West Valley city in the top 5 with a ratio that is increasing consistently through 2050 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.25 0.35 0.33 0.36 0.31 0.50 0.46 0.76 1.04 0.30 0.36 0.24 0.29 0.46 0.49 0.41 0.51 0.60 0.65 0.84 1.03 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 Surprise Avondale Buckeye Peoria Gilbert Mesa Goodyear Glendale Phoenix Chandler Scottsdale Tempe Jobs per Capita Ratio by MPA 2010 2020 2050 Source: Maricopa Association of Governments, 2019 Socioeconomic Projections. Labor Force & Commuting • The number of employed residents in Glendale in 2020 at 118,642 exceeds the number of jobs by place of work at 111,400, based on estimates from MAG. Given the contiguous nature of development in the Phoenix metro area, many people do not work in the city where they live. • Only about 21 percent of Glendale residents also work in the city based on 2020 MAG Trip Reduction data. More than twice as many Glendale residents work in Phoenix than work in Glendale. • It is likely that as employment opportunities in the western part of the city continue to increase, the share of residents that both live and work in Glendale will increase. Where Glendale Residents Work Phoenix 57.8% Glendale 20.7% Peoria 4.8% Scottsdale 4.5% Tempe 3.1% Tolleson 2.0% Goodyear 1.5% Avondale 1.0% Other Maricopa County 4.6% Where Glendale's Workforce Lives Glendale 29.3% Phoenix 25.3% Peoria 15.8% Surprise 8.1% Goodyear 5.5% Avondale 3.2% Buckeye 3.0% El Mirage 1.7% Other Maricopa County 8.1% Fiscal Sustainability - Sales Taxes • Since 2005, per capita sales tax collections in Glendale have grown from $462 to $735, adjusted for inflation, due to an increase in the number of retailers and restaurants in the city • Compared to Gilbert and Peoria, Glendale ranks highest in terms of construction, amusement, hotel and commercial and residential leasing collections per capita, while the other cities have higher restaurant collections per capita • This is due to the recent volume of construction activity, the level of amusement and hotel development in the Sports and Entertainment District and the overall inventory of leasable commercial space and apartments in Glendale $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 Hotels & Amusement Res/Comm Leasing Construction Restaurants Per Capita Taxable Sales Peoria Gilbert Glendale Fiscal Sustainability-General Fund Revenues • Over the past 10 years, general fund revenues increased by close to 40 percent from $174 million in FY10 (adjusted for inflation), to $241 million in FY20 • Annual general fund revenues are $62 million higher in FY20 than in FY15, despite only a 6 percent increase in population during that time. From FY10 to FY20, per capita general fund revenues have risen from $765 to $972 (adjusted for inflation), allowing the city to enhance its quality of services and fund deferred infrastructure investment • One-Time Revenues have also increased dramatically from $4.5M in FY18 to $37M in FY21 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $0 $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 FY05 FY10 FY15 FY20 Total and Per Capita GF Revenues Total ($000) Per Capita $4.5 $12.7 $15.6 $37.0 $10.7 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Jul-Sept Annual Planning & Permitting Revenues (millions of dollars) Source: City of Glendale Development Services, 2021. Fiscal Sustainability – Bonded Debt • Since 2010, the amount of General Bonded Debt per capita in Glendale has decreased by 50% from $771 to $384 • In 2014 when the bond rating dropped to BBB, the Council made strategic policy changes to constrain spending and focus on economic development to increase revenues • By 2016, S&P increased the city’s bond rating to A+, and subsequently to AA in 2020 • Dramatic turnaround rating translates into lower interest rates and taxpayer savings $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 $180,000 $200,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2021 Glendale General Bonded Debt Outstanding Gen. Bonded Debt ($000) Debt per Capita Glendale MPA Land Use Residential 40% Commercial /Office 5% Industrial/ Other 16% Ag/Open/ Vacant 33% Transportation 6% Existing Residential 49% Comm/Off/ Mixed 11% Industrial/ Other 27% Open Space 7% Transportation 6% Future Annexations • Since 2015, the city has completed 17 annexations with 3,875 acres, mostly in Loop 303 • Six active annexations encompassing 736 acres are expected to be approved this fiscal year Construction Activity • An estimated 14.1 million square feet of nonresidential space permitted and under construction in Glendale as of October 2021 - 56% increase in nonresidential construction activity over 2020 • This amount of square feet could support an estimated 12,000 to 16,000 new jobs based on typical industrial employment density • From FY16 through FY21, 4,880 new housing units were constructed in Glendale • The past several years have resulted in a significant increase in multi-family with over 2,000 units permitted in FY21 along with 566 single family units 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Residential and Commercial Permit Activity Residential Units Commercial Permits Office/Industrial Inventory • As of September 2021, Glendale has 15.8 million square feet of industrial space, 5.7 million square feet of office space and 500,000 square feet of flex space in inventory • 5.3 million square feet of new industrial space added since 2016, and industrial space currently under construction will close to double the industrial inventory to 30 million in the 12 to 18 months • According to the Colliers, there are 19.2 million square feet of space currently under construction throughout the region, with almost 40 percent of that in Glendale 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Glendale Office and Industrial Inventory Office Industrial Growth Factor Glendale Performance Population and Demographics Historic Growth + Projected Growth + Age Structure + Household Income Level - Household Income Growth + Jobs per Capita-Current + Jobs per Capita-Future ++ Workforce and Commuting Labor Force Growth + Commuting/Labor Shed + Fiscal Sustainability Sales Tax Collections ++ General Fund Revenues per Capita +++ Assessed Value Growth -Residential + Assessed Value Growth -Nonresidential ++ Bonded Debt per Capita +++ Real Estate Land Use ++ Permit Activity +++ Housing Unit Completions ++ Nonresidential Inventory Growth +++ - + Glendale keeping pace with county average ++ Glendale exceeding county average, or showing strong improvement over past 5 years +++ Glendale significantly outperforming and increasing market share Glendale underperforming county or constraints to future growth