Glendale Economic Growth Scorecard (Added on 12/14/21)
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Glendale
Economic Growth
Scorecard
i
Table of Contents
Letter of Validation ..............................................................................................................................
ii
Introduction ..........................................................................................................................................
1
Demographics .......................................................................................................................................
3
Population Growth ......................................................................................................................
3
Population by Age ........................................................................................................................
4
Household Income .......................................................................................................................
5
Jobs per Capita ............................................................................................................................
6
Workforce and Commuting ..................................................................................................................
8
Labor Force Growth .....................................................................................................................
8
Commuting Patterns ....................................................................................................................
9
Fiscal Sustainability ...............................................................................................................................
10
Sales Tax Collections ....................................................................................................................
10
General Fund Revenues ...............................................................................................................
11
One-Time Revenues.....................................................................................................................
12
Assessed Value ............................................................................................................................
13
Bonded Debt ................................................................................................................................
15
Land Use and Development Activity .....................................................................................................
17
Land Use Distribution ..................................................................................................................
17
Current Construction and Annexation Activity ...........................................................................
18
Building Permits ...........................................................................................................................
19
Housing Units Completions .........................................................................................................
20
Commercial Built Space Inventory ..............................................................................................
21
Summary ............................................................................................................................................
22
ii
11209 N. Tatum Boulevard, Suite 225 * Phoenix, AZ 85028 * 602-765-2400 tel * 602-765-2407 fax
December 1, 2021
Mr. Brian Friedman
Economic Development Director
City of Glendale
5850 W. Glendale Avenue
Glendale, AZ 85301
Dear Brian,
Applied Economics is pleased to present this Glendale Economic Growth Scorecard. The scorecard
includes an analysis of a broad range of quantitative measures to assess growth in Glendale over the
past 15 years, with a particular focus on the past five years. These measures capture historic and
projected demographic changes, labor force growth, fiscal sustainability, and land use and
development activity using data from reliable published sources, as well as some specific data
provided by the city. The scorecard shows Glendale in comparison to Maricopa County, and in some
cases in comparison to other similar sized-cities in the region, to provide context as to how Glendale
has emerged as a growth leader within the metro area.
The inter-related demographic, economic, fiscal and development factors shown in this analysis
present a consistent picture of how recent growth trends, particularly in the Loop 303 corridor,
combined with the city’s current annexation and financial policies, have transformed the city’s fiscal
condition and created a pathway for future economic success and financial stability. We believe the
metrics presented by Applied Economics to be accurate and reliable as measures of the city’s
performance over the past 15 years. If you have any further questions as to the details of the
scorecard, please do not hesitate to contact me.
Sincerely,
Sarah E. Murley
Principal
1
Introduction
Over the past decade, the city of Glendale, Arizona has experienced a significant amount of growth in
commercial development and job creation, in addition to population increases. The purpose of this report
is to quantify these increases, and put it into perspective relative to the level of activity in Maricopa County
overall. The data presented here is intended to be both historical and forward-looking and includes a
broad range of growth measures such as demographics, labor force, commuting, fiscal sustainability, land
use and development.
Glendale’s economic development approach has focused on increasing its tax base and creating high
quality employment opportunities. To accommodate these growth areas, city strategies include providing
work-force housing options including increased density in targeted areas of the city.
One such strategy established by the Council has been to protect the land in the western part of the city
around Luke Air Force Base and reserve it for nonresidential development that will not encroach on the
base. The city has witnessed an unprecedented number of manufacturing and industrial development
projects in the pipeline for the next five to seven years, particularly in the western part of the municipal
planning area. The city has been activity annexing land in the Loop 303 Corridor to accommodate this
growth that will both support economic development and preserve the area around Luke AFB for
appropriate nonresidential uses.
Glendale’s economic growth over the past five to six years has significantly improved its’ fiscal
sustainability. At the same time, the county has also experienced sustained high levels of growth since
the last economic recovery began in 2012. In some categories Glendale has kept pace with the county.
However, the pipeline of planned projects in Glendale is large and diverse, and the city is emerging as a
growth leader in the region.
The Glendale Economic Growth Scorecard provides a summary of a variety of socioeconomic factors that
illustrate the city’s past and present condition. It rates the city’s performance relative to the county, and
where applicable measures the level of improvement over the past five years. In terms of population
growth, Glendale has generally kept pace with the county in recent years. In the percentage of jobs per
capita, the city has outpaced the county and other West Valley cities, meaning that employment has
grown more rapidly than population. With respect to fiscal measures and real estate, Glendale has also
outperformed the county average and has shown significant growth in the past five years. There is only
one significant factor on the scorecard where Glendale has not equally performed or out-performed the
county average, which is household income.
2
Growth Factor
Glendale Performance
Population and Demographics
Historic Growth
+
Projected Growth
+
Age Structure
+
Household Income Level
-
Household Income Growth
+
Jobs per Capita-Current
+
Jobs per Capita-Future
++
Workforce and Commuting
Labor Force Growth
+
Commuting/Labor Shed
+
Fiscal Sustainability
Sales Tax Collections
++
General Fund Revenues per Capita
+++
Assessed Value Growth -Residential
+
Assessed Value Growth -Nonresidential
++
Bonded Debt per Capita
+++
Real Estate
Land Use
++
Permit Activity
+++
Housing Unit Completions
++
Nonresidential Inventory Growth
+++
-
+
Glendale keeping pace with county average
++ Glendale exceeding county average, or showing strong improvement over past 5 years
+++ Glendale significantly outperforming and increasing market share
Glendale underperforming county or constraints to future growth
Glendale Growth Scorecard
3
Demographics
This section includes data on historic and projected population growth in Glendale and Maricopa County,
and identifies trends in the age structure of the population. Comparisons of households by income level
and jobs to population ratios are also included in this section.
Population Growth
The City of Glendale has added 21,108 new residents since 2010, including 13,560 new residents since
2015. This translates into an annual growth rate of about 1.2 percent over the past five years, compared
to countywide annual growth of 1.7 percent during the same period. As a result, Glendale’s share of
countywide population has dropped from 5.8 percent to 5.6 percent over the past five years, largely due
to the significant amount of growth that occurred in the East Valley where recovery from the Great
Recession occurred earlier than in the West Valley.
City Council strategies are intended to minimize the focus on single family residential, except for infill
parcels, and instead concentrate on commercial and industrial development. An exception is the city’s
recent focus on multifamily residential, which has resulted in a significant number of new four-story,
luxury developments in the Westgate area.
Based on the most recent projections from Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG), a continuing
moderate rate of growth is projected in Glendale over the next ten years, averaging 0.7 percent per year,
compared to countywide growth rate of 1.6 percent. It is important to note that Glendale is a relatively
mature city compared to other West Valley cities that have ample amount of undeveloped land available
for future growth. Projections for the Glendale Municipal Planning Area (MPA) (which are not included in
the table) reflect an annual growth rate of 1 percent from 2020 to 2030 and 0.6 percent from 2030 to
2040, capturing projected growth in future annexation areas.
The north-south portion of the city is built out in the north and nearly built out, except for infill parcels,
towards the south. The Loop 303 area in the city’s western reaches is planned for industrial and
commercial activities, not single family residential, in order to protect the mission of Luke Air Force Base
per the noise contours and existing zoning.
4
Population by Age
The differences in population growth between Glendale and the county are largely due to the speed with
which the West Valley recovered from the past Great Recession. However, the aging of the existing
population led to an increase in the share of the population over 65 in both Glendale and the county
between 2010 and 2019. Also, birth rates declined during the recession and have remained lower than in
the previous decade, resulting in a notable decrease in the share of population under 18 in both Glendale
and the county. However, Glendale does have a slightly higher than average share of residents under 18
and 18 to 24, as well as a lower than average share of residents over 65, based on 2019 estimates from
the American Community Survey. The working-age population share in Glendale is almost identical to the
county, and the 2019 median age is slightly lower in Glendale, although not as much below the county
average as it was in 2010.
City of
Glendale
Maricopa
County
Glendale
Share
2005
231,126
3,577,074
6.5%
2010
227,217
3,824,058
5.9%
2015
234,766
4,076,438
5.8%
2020 (Census)
248,325
4,420,568
5.6%
2025
258,500
4,780,600
5.4%
2030
265,300
5,107,700
5.2%
2035
271,300
5,423,400
5.0%
2040
276,400
5,712,000
4.8%
2045
280,000
5,966,900
4.7%
2050
283,800
6,196,000
4.6%
Avg Annual Increase:
2005-2015
0.2%
1.4%
na
2015-2020
1.2%
1.7%
na
2020-2030
0.7%
1.6%
na
2030-2040
0.4%
1.2%
na
2040-2050
0.3%
0.8%
na
Population Growth
Source: AZ Office of Economic Opportunity: July 1st population
estimates (2005-2015); AZ Commerce Authority, 2020 Census
apportionment results; Maricopa Association of Governments, 2019
Socioeconomic Projections.
5
Household Income
Median household income is a general measure of standard of living, as well as a measure of typical wage
and skill levels. Median household income in Glendale increased 25 percent from 2010 to 2019, rising to
$57,137; however, adjusting for inflation, median household income only increased by 3.4 percent over
the nine-year period. County inflation-adjusted median income increased by 12.7 percent over the same
time period. Glendale lags the county in both income growth and median income level. The county
median household income for 2019 is $68,649, according to the American Community Survey. Glendale
has more households in the under $75,000 income ranges and fewer in the over $75,000 ranges compared
to the county, just as it did in 2010. To some extent this is a function of the type of housing that exists in
Glendale compared to other parts of the metro area, and while new developments in Glendale provide a
range of housing price points, the city is still building more entry-level housing than cities in the East Valley.
Glendale
Maricopa
County
Glendale
Maricopa
County
Under 18 Years
28.1%
26.3%
24.4%
23.5%
18 to 24 years
11.7%
9.9%
10.5%
9.3%
25 to 44 years
28.1%
28.0%
26.1%
27.7%
45 to 64 years
23.5%
23.7%
25.3%
24.0%
65 and older
8.6%
12.1%
13.7%
15.5%
Working age (18-64 years)
63.3%
61.6%
61.9%
61.0%
Median age (years)
31.2
34.6
35.7
36.9
2010
2019
Share of Population by Age
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year estimates.
Glendale
Maricopa
County
Glendale
Maricopa
County
Total Households
76,848
1,384,358
81,065
1,611,722
Less than $50,000
53.6%
49.5%
42.9%
35.2%
$50,000 to $74,999
19.9%
18.6%
19.9%
18.6%
$75,000 to $99,999
11.7%
11.5%
12.3%
13.7%
$100,000 to $149,999
10.1%
12.6%
14.1%
16.8%
$150,000 or more
4.6%
7.8%
10.8%
15.6%
Median Household Income
$45,699
$50,410
$57,137
$68,649
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year estimates.
Share of Households by Income
2010
2019
6
Jobs per Capita
Although demographics are important, they do not tell the whole story about growth in Glendale.
Glendale still trails the average for all cities in the county in terms of the jobs per capita, but it has made
significant gains in the past decade. While the Glendale MPA grew by 26,300 in population from 2010 to
2020, it added 32,800 new jobs. This trend is projected to continue through 2050, with much of the
undeveloped land in the municipal planning area being devoted to nonresidential uses. The jobs per
capita difference between Glendale and the county is significantly narrowed by 2050. Based on job
creation currently known to be in the pipeline, it is very conceivable that Glendale will exceed the County
in jobs per capita prior to 2050
The data tells a different story when comparing Glendale to the other larger cities in the metro area in
terms of jobs per capita. At a ratio of 0.40 in 2020, Glendale is well ahead of other West Valley
communities such as Surprise, Avondale, Buckeye and Peoria, and similar to Goodyear. Glendale’s ratio
has also increased significantly since 2010 relative to increases in other cities. Compared to the East
Valley, Glendale has a slightly higher number of jobs per capita than Mesa and Gilbert. And while making
gains, Glendale is still below the job-centric suburbs of Chandler, Scottsdale and Tempe.
Jobs
Population
Ratio
Jobs
Population
Ratio
2010
78,600
252,800
0.31
1,688,432
3,824,058
0.44
2020
111,400
279,100
0.40
2,040,590
4,420,568
0.46
2030
134,000
306,400
0.44
2,648,000
5,107,700
0.52
2040
153,100
323,400
0.47
3,004,300
5,712,000
0.53
2050
168,900
333,200
0.51
3,307,900
6,196,000
0.53
2055
175,900
338,800
0.52
3,467,700
6,414,100
0.54
Source: AZ Office of Economic Opportunity: county and place July 1st population
estimates (2010) and 2020 Census, 2020 OES county employment (2020); Maricopa
Association of Governments, 2019 Socioeconomic Projections.
Glendale MPA
Maricopa County
Jobs per Capita
7
Current MAG projections for 2050, that were prepared in 2019, show Glendale’s jobs per capita ratio
increasing from 0.40 currently to 0.51 by 2050. This would rank Glendale 5th highest, behind Phoenix,
Chandler, Scottsdale and Tempe in 2040 and 2050. In terms of the change from 2020 to 2050, Glendale,
Mesa and Chandler show the greatest increase in jobs per capita, indicating that these cities are expecting
to add more employment than housing. Glendale is the only West Valley city in the top five with a jobs
per capita ratio over 0.50. It is likely that the significant industrial development that is taking place
currently in the Loop 303 Corridor will alter these projections and increase the jobs per capita ratio in
Glendale well before 2040.
0.15
0.18
0.20
0.25
0.35
0.33
0.36
0.31
0.50
0.46
0.76
1.04
0.24
0.27
0.28
0.32
0.37
0.37
0.40
0.40
0.55
0.55
0.82
1.06
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Historic Jobs per Capita Ratio by MPA
2010
2020
Source: Maricopa Association of Governments, 2019 Socioeconomic Projections.
0.21
0.28
0.31
0.32
0.36
0.44
0.46
0.47
0.59
0.63
0.84
1.04
0.24
0.3
0.29
0.36
0.41
0.46
0.49
0.51
0.60
0.65
0.84
1.03
Projected Jobs per Capita Ratio by MPA
2040
2050
Source: Maricopa Association of Governments, 2019 Socioeconomic Projections.
8
Workforce and Commuting
The workforce and commuting section highlights information about resident labor force and employment
growth in Glendale, as well as changes in commuting patterns.
Labor Force Growth
Another measure of growth in Glendale is labor force growth. Labor force includes both individuals living
in Glendale who are employed, as well as those who are unemployed and are actively looking for work.
While projections for labor force do not exist at the city level, it is informative to look at historical trends
for Glendale versus the county. (Note that the data presented here is based on place of residence.)
Glendale’s labor force grew by over 17,000 people or 15 percent from 2015 to 2021, although the city’s
slow recovery from the recession is reflected in flat growth from 2010 to 2015. Since 2015, labor force
growth in Glendale has been similar to the county, which grew by 17 percent over the 2015 to 2021 period.
Employment growth shows a slightly different pattern in Glendale with 7 percent growth from 2010 to
2015, as unemployment declined during the recovery but labor force stayed constant. From 2015 to 2021,
employment in Glendale has grown by 13 percent, slightly lagging the county growth rate of 16 percent,
most likely due to a lower rate of residential growth in Glendale than in some other cities.
Jobs can be measured by place of work and also by place of residence. The labor force and employment
numbers above represent people who live in Glendale, but may work in other cities (employed residents).
The number of employed residents in Glendale in 2020 at 118,642 exceeds the number of jobs by place
of work at 111,400, based on estimates from MAG. Given the contiguous nature of development in the
Phoenix metro area, many people do not work in the city where they live.
2005
2010
2015
2020
2021
Labor Force
Glendale
126,986
114,360
114,094
128,835
131,347
Average Annual change
1.9%
-2.0%
0.0%
1.7%
1.9%
Maricopa County
1,856,076
1,919,590
2,020,413 2,331,628 2,371,708
Average Annual change
4.0%
0.7%
1.1%
1.4%
1.7%
Employment
Glendale
121,644
100,368
107,844
118,642
122,143
Average Annual change
2.2%
-3.5%
1.5%
2.0%
3.0%
Maricopa County
1,780,954
1,736,764
1,916,900 2,159,267
2,222,989
Average Annual change
4.4%
-0.5%
2.1%
2.5%
3.0%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, LAUS, data extracted Sept. 2021.
Labor Force and Employment Growth
9
Commuting Patterns
Ease of commuting directly impacts quality of life, both in terms of the time spent driving and the intensity
of traffic congestion. Average travel time to work is slightly less for people living in Glendale versus the
county at 25.8 minutes versus 27.8 minutes, with about 37 percent of Glendale residents commuting more
than 60 minutes per day compared to 43 percent countywide.
Only about 21 percent of Glendale residents also work in the city based on 2020 MAG Trip Reduction data,
down from about 30 percent in 2010. More than twice as many Glendale residents work in Phoenix than
work in Glendale. Other top work locations include Peoria, Scottsdale and Tempe. Having a larger share
of residents who both live and work locally creates a more connected community and enhances quality
of life. It is likely that as employment opportunities in the western part of the city continue to increase,
the share of residents that both live and work in Glendale will increase.
The other way to view commuting data is to look at how large the labor shed is for employers in Glendale.
Not surprisingly, the primary cities in Glendale’s labor shed are all in the West Valley. Of the total number
of people who work at businesses in Glendale, only about 29 percent of them also live in the city, an
additional 25 percent live in Phoenix and 24 percent live in Peoria and Surprise combined. The share living
in Glendale is down from 2010 when an estimated 40 percent of the city’s workforce also lived in the city.
Note that the workforce is made up of people who work in Glendale, but may or may not live in the city.
Where Glendale Residents Work
Phoenix
57.8%
Glendale
20.7%
Peoria
4.8%
Scottsdale
4.5%
Tempe
3.1%
Tolleson
2.0%
Goodyear
1.5%
Avondale
1.0%
Other Maricopa County
4.6%
Where Glendale's Workforce Lives
Glendale
29.3%
Phoenix
25.3%
Peoria
15.8%
Surprise
8.1%
Goodyear
5.5%
Avondale
3.2%
Buckeye
3.0%
El Mirage
1.7%
Other Maricopa County
8.1%
Live-Work Patterns
Source: MAG Trip Reduction Program data, 2020.
10
Fiscal Sustainability
Growth in population and jobs in Glendale translates into additional tax revenues, as well as municipal
service demands. In order for growth to be fiscally sustainable, the mix of businesses and residents needs
to generate more revenues than expenses for the city. This analysis looks at revenue generation,
specifically sales tax growth, assessed value growth, general fund revenues per capita and bonded debt
per capita.
Sales Tax Collections
Sales taxes are the largest source of unrestricted revenues for Glendale, as well as for most other cities in
Arizona. While sales tax collections vary depending on the overall health of the economy, the mix of sales
taxes by sector is an important determinant of stability. The trends shown here for Glendale reveal some
interesting patterns.
Since 2005, per capita sales tax collections in Glendale have grown from $334 to $735, or $462 to $735 in
inflation-adjusted terms. While some of this growth is due to inflation, a significant amount is due to an
increase in the number of retailers and restaurants in the city that capture spending from both residents
and visitors. With the exception of 2010 (during the Great Recession), the share of sales tax collections
from retail establishments has kept pace with overall growth in sales taxes as indicated by per capita
collections. Construction sales taxes tend to show more variability than other categories, but the annual
average level of collections is up by close to $10 million in FY21 compared to FY15. 1 Amusement sales tax
more than doubled as a share of total collections from FY03 to FY15.
1 Trends in utilities collections (specifically telecom) are related to a change in the tax rate rather than a change in
taxable sales.
FY 2005
FY 2010
FY 2015
FY 2020
FY 2021
Total Collections (000's)
$77,166
$97,805 $145,126 $180,754 $183,926
Retail
54.3%
50.2%
54.5%
55.6%
56.7%
Restaurants & Bars
9.1%
11.0%
12.2%
11.6%
10.5%
Contracting
10.0%
4.6%
4.4%
7.7%
8.9%
Rentals
10.7%
13.0%
11.1%
11.8%
11.3%
Utilities/Telecom/Cable
9.3%
13.3%
9.3%
6.4%
5.9%
Amusement
1.4%
3.8%
3.9%
1.6%
0.7%
Other
5.3%
4.1%
4.6%
5.2%
6.1%
Per Capita Collections
$334
$430
$618
$728
$735
Source: City of Glendale, Consolidated Annual Financial Reports, Schedule 9; City of Glendale
FY22 Annual Budget.
Glendale Sales Tax Collections by Type
11
By converting sales tax collections to taxable sales per capita, it is possible to provide comparisons
between Glendale and other cities using uniform collections data by industry from the Arizona
Department of Revenue. In this case Glendale is compared to Gilbert in the East Valley and Peoria in the
West Valley. Gilbert is similar in size to Glendale, while Peoria is about 30 percent smaller than Glendale
in terms of population, although looking at per capita data normalizes for population differences.
Glendale ranks highest among the three cities in terms of construction, amusement, hotel and commercial
and residential leasing per capita. This is reasonable given the recent volume of construction activity, the
level of amusement and hotel development in the Sports and Entertainment District and the overall
inventory of leasable commercial space and apartments in Glendale. Both Gilbert and Peoria have slightly
higher restaurant and bar sales per capita and retail sales per capita.
General Fund Revenues
Looking more broadly at all general fund revenues, per capita revenues offer another measure of fiscal
sustainability. General fund revenues are unrestricted revenue sources including major taxes like sales
and property, as well as state-shared revenues and a variety of other fees. Over the past 10 years, general
fund revenues increased by close to 40 percent from $174 million in FY10 (adjusted for inflation) to $241
million in FY20. Annual general fund revenues are $62 million higher in FY20 than in FY15, despite only a
6 percent increase in population during that time.
The level of per capita revenues is indicative of overall trends in fiscal health for the city. From FY10 to
FY20, per capita general fund revenues that are used to support most municipal services have risen from
$615 to $972, or $765 to $972 when adjusted for inflation. This trend generally indicates that the rate of
revenue growth has exceeded the rate of population growth, allowing the city to maintain or enhance the
quality of services it provides to residents, and fund deferred infrastructure projects. Although revenues
per capita are higher in FY21 in the table below, there were $46 million in one-time revenues in the
general fund this year from AZCARES and the American Rescue Plan that allowed cities to provide
Glendale
Gilbert
Peoria
Restaurants & Bars
$2,322
$2,424
$2,462
Amusement
$210
$138
$177
Construction
$2,436
$2,419
$2,142
Retail (incl remote)
$17,080
$18,402
$18,510
Hotels
$203
$127
$119
Commercial Leasing
$1,334
$1,312
$1,027
Residential Leasing
$1,698
$1,268
$1,275
Total Taxable Sales*
$25,283
$28,963
$29,943
*Includes total taxable sales, not limited to selected categories in table.
2021 Per Capita Taxable Sales in Selected Categories
Source: Arizona Department of Revenue Monthly City Collections Report; AZ Office of
Economic Opportunity: July 1st population estimates (2019); AZ Commerce Authority,
2020 Census apportionment results; Maricopa Association of Governments,
Population Projections by Jurisdiction, June 2019 (2021).
12
additional services during the COVID-19 pandemic. Adjusting for these one-time events, per capita
general fund revenue remains relatively unchanged from FY20 to FY21.
One-Time Revenues
The current level of construction activity has created a significant increase in one-time planning and
permitting fees over the last three years. In FY19, the city collected $12.7 million in one-time revenues
related to new development. By FY21, annual collections increased to $37.0 million, and in just the first
three months of FY22 the city had already collected $10.7 million. One-time revenues shown here include
permit fees, plan review fees, minor land division process fees, minor/major special events fees,
inspection fees and development impact fees. The city’s continued focus on economic development has
resulted in significant financial gains. While these development-related revenues are non-recurring, new
construction contributes to permanent increases in assessed value and property taxes.
Fiscal Year
Total General Fund
Revenues
Per Capita
Revenues
FY05
$131,620,235
$569
FY10
$139,745,184
$615
FY15
$179,728,607
$766
FY20
$241,377,370
$972
FY21
$289,214,630
$1,156
Source: City of Glendale, Annual Budget Reports, Summary of
Revenues.
Per Capita General Fund Revenues
$12.7
$15.6
$37.0
$10.7
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
$30.0
$35.0
$40.0
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22 Jul-Sept
Annual Planning and Permitting Revenues
(millions of dollars)
Source: City of Glendale Development Services, 2021.
13
Assessed Value
Assessed value changes over time are a measure of both the level of development activity in the city and
bonding capacity. Assessed value, and in turn property taxes, are generally less likely to decline during
economic downturns than sales taxes. However, there were significant fluctuations in residential
assessed value during the last recession between 2008 and 2013. Note that the values shown in the table
below represent the majority of taxable value, but exclude certain categories such as historical property.
Also, these figures do not include assessment ratios, which vary for commercial versus residential
property and changed over the 2005 to 2020 time period.
Residential assessed value in Glendale and in the county increased dramatically from 2005 to 2008, and
then fell by 58 percent in the city from 2008 to 2013, compared to a drop of 47 percent countywide. Since
2013, Glendale has shown steady growth in residential values due to a combination of new construction
and value appreciation. Over the past three years, residential assessed value has grown by close to 10
percent per year, which is comparable to the county growth rate. During this time period, per capita
residential assessed value in Glendale has risen from a low of $27,000 in 2013 to a 2021 level of $63,000.
While this represents a very healthy rate of increase, Glendale’s residential assessed value per capita is
still far below the county average of $98,000 in 2020, due to the age of the housing stock and the level of
new residential development.
Nonresidential properties represent 36 percent of assessed value in Glendale in 2021, compared to only
31 percent in the county. During the recession, nonresidential value declined in Glendale and the county,
but since that time total nonresidential value has increased 82 percent in Glendale and 85 percent in the
county. Nonresidential value per job has increased 56 percent in Glendale since the end of the recession
in 2014 as a result of new capital investment, creating additional property tax revenues and bonding
capacity for the city. This is comparable to a 54 percent increase in nonresidential value per job in the
county. The amount of nonresidential value in Glendale is expected to increase significantly in the next
several years given the amount of industrial space currently under construction in the Loop 303 corridor,
and the amount of office and hotel space planned around the Sports and Entertainment District.
14
Year
Assessed
Value
Annual
Change
Assessed
Value
Annual
Change
Assessed
Value
Annual
Change
Assessed
Value
Annual
Change
2005
$8,226
$180,074
$2,833
$81,827
2006
$8,371
1.8%
$190,396
5.7%
$3,498
23.5%
$99,204
21.2%
2007
$12,419
48.4%
$298,437
56.7%
$4,059
16.0%
$116,077
17.0%
2008
$14,765
18.9%
$349,989
17.3%
$6,000
47.8%
$151,657
30.7%
2009
$13,237
-10.3%
$324,892
-7.2%
$7,111
18.5%
$174,856
15.3%
2010
$9,690
-26.8%
$262,025
-19.3%
$7,370
3.6%
$165,151
-5.6%
2011
$7,360
-24.1%
$214,449
-18.2%
$5,957
-19.2%
$128,037
-22.5%
2012
$6,583
-10.5%
$191,615
-10.6%
$5,185
-13.0%
$113,032
-11.7%
2013
$6,218
-5.5%
$184,938
-3.5%
$4,992
-3.7%
$107,932
-4.5%
2014
$7,228
16.2%
$212,837
15.1%
$4,973
-0.4%
$108,171
0.2%
2015
$9,505
31.5%
$264,821
24.4%
$5,434
9.3%
$119,024
10.0%
2016
$10,126
6.5%
$287,304
8.5%
$6,052
11.4%
$136,424
14.6%
2017
$10,810
6.8%
$307,207
6.9%
$6,754
11.6%
$148,052
8.5%
2018
$11,996
11.0%
$333,848
8.7%
$7,139
5.7%
$154,815
4.6%
2019
$13,138
9.5%
$364,496
9.2%
$7,594
6.4%
$168,919
9.1%
2020
$14,433
9.9%
$402,483
10.4%
$8,380
10.3%
$185,564
9.9%
2021
$15,863
9.9%
$442,131
9.9%
$9,048
8.0%
$199,766
7.7%
Source: Arizona Department of Revenue, Abstract of the Assessment Roll, Full Cash Value, Locally Assessed
Properties.
Locally Assessed Property Value (millions of dollars)
Maricopa County
Glendale
Maricopa County
Residential Value
Nonresidential Value
Glendale
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Residential Value per Capita 2005-2021
Glendale
Maricopa County
Source: Arizona Department of Revenue, Abstract of the Assessment Roll, Full Cash Value, Locally Assessed Properties.
15
Bonded Debt
Another measure of fiscal sustainability is the level of general bonded debt in the city. While it would be
difficult to compare Glendale to the county on this measure, the trends over time in the city are very
strong. Since 2010, the amount of General Bonded Debt in Glendale has decreased by 50 percent from
$771 per capita, to only $384 per capita and the city’s bond rating has improved from BBB to AA (according
to Standard & Poors) and a current rating of AAA with Fitch (up from A3 in 2015), creating significantly
greater financial stability. In 2014, the city was in serious financial trouble with a bond rating of BBB (S&P).
The Council made strategic policy changes to turn this situation around by constraining spending, creating
a goal of $50 million for the General Fund balance, and focusing on economic development to increase
tax revenues.2 Within a year Standard & Poors increased the city’s bond rating to A+ in 2016, and
subsequently to AA in 2020. This improved credit rating translated into better interest rates for the city
and savings for taxpayers.
2 Glendale Star, “City Bond Rating Goes Up Again,” November 30, 2017.
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Nonresidential Value per Job 2005-2021
Glendale
Maricopa County
Source: Arizona Department of Revenue, Abstract of the Assessment Roll, Full Cash Value, Locally Assessed Properties.
16
Fiscal Year
Net General Bonded
Debt Oustanding
(000's)
Debt Per
Capita
Average
Annual
Change
2005
$151,598
$642
2010
$192,821
$771
4.0%
2015
$118,035
$507
-6.8%
2020
$98,900
$389
-5.8%
2021
$95,961
$384
-1.5%
Source: City of Glendale, Consolidated Annual Financial Reports, Schedule 11.
General Bonded Debt
17
Land Use and Development Activity
The final measures of growth concern development activity. Future land use will have a significant impact
on long-term fiscal sustainability, as well as on the balance of jobs versus residents. New permits, housing
completions and nonresidential inventory are presented in this section.
Land Use Distribution
Decisions about future land use are among the most important choices that the city will make in terms of
influencing long term growth. This includes development of vacant parcels within the city limits, as well
as development on parcels in the MPA that are being considered for annexation. MAG has compiled
information on current and future land use for all city municipal planning areas and the county that
provide some interesting insights into future growth potential in Glendale.
For existing development, about 40 percent of the city’s acreage (about 23,600 acres) is devoted to
housing, with 37 percent of that being single family. An additional 21 percent (12,100 acres) are devoted
to commercial, office, industrial and other employment uses. A total of about 5,200 acres were vacant
and developable as of 2019. It is important to note that MAG has developed a standard set of land use
categories for all MPA’s that may not match the city’s General Plan land use categories.
The information on future land use allocates the approximately 5,200 vacant acres and 10,100 agriculture
acres for future development. Therefore, the future column represents a combination of existing and
future development in 2019, or in other words buildout acreage by land use. At buildout, the amount of
residential development in Glendale is projected to increase by about 4,900 acres to 49 percent of the
total acreage, while commercial, office, industrial and other employment uses will increase by about 7,700
acres to 34 percent of the total. Thus, the expected increase in employment generating uses is far greater
than the increase in residential uses in terms of acreage, creating a positive position for the city in terms
of revenue generation. Similar data is shown for existing and future land use in the county as a whole;
although it is difficult to compare to Glendale given that 62 percent of the county is open space.
Existing
Existing %
Future
Future %
Existing
Existing %
Future
Future %
Total Acres
58,793
-
58,793
-
5,902,691
-
5,902,691
-
Single Family
21,853
37%
26,348
45%
445,373
8%
1,323,673
22%
Multi Family
1,740
3%
2,165
4%
35,702
1%
52,394
1%
Commercial
2,798
5%
3,392
6%
37,392
1%
59,480
1%
Industrial
1,354
2%
3,746
6%
35,977
1%
60,518
1%
Office
313
1%
454
1%
9,345
0%
10,739
0%
Other Employment
7,665
13%
12,248
21%
120,067
2%
224,686
4%
Mixed Use
0
0%
2,545
4%
50
0%
272,017
5%
Transportation
3,717
6%
3,769
6%
90,531
2%
94,028
2%
Open Space
4,070
7%
4,126
7%
3,687,358
62%
3,753,265
64%
Agriculture
10,063
17%
0
0%
263,126
4%
51,918
1%
Vacant
5,221
9%
-
1,177,771
20%
-
-
Source: Maricopa Association of Governments, Land Use Explorer by Municipal Planning Area, 2019 update.
Maricopa County
Land Use Distribution
Glendale MPA
18
Current Construction and Annexation Activity
Glendale has seen a high level of annexation activity since 2019, particularly for industrial development,
as well as a high level of nonresidential permitting. Since 2015, the city has completed 17 annexations
encompassing 3,875 acres, and there are an additional 6 active annexations encompassing 736 acres that
are expected to be approved later this year. The majority of these annexations are industrial and
distribution projects in the Loop 303 Corridor as shown in the map below.
As a result of these annexations, there are an estimated 14.1 million square feet of nonresidential space
permitted and under construction in Glendale as of October 2021, predominately light industrial space in
the Loop 303 corridor. This represents a 56 percent increase in square feet permitted in just one year.
Applying employment density figures to projected square feet by type of use, these projects are
anticipated to be built in the next 12 to 18 months and potentially occupied within a year after completion
of construction, and they could support an estimated 12,000 to 16,000 new jobs in the city. This is a
conservative estimate and the actual number of new jobs will depend on the specific types of
warehousing/distribution and manufacturing users, and the presence of multi-shift operations.
19
Building Permits
In addition to looking at the future pipeline of projects, it is also informative to look at residential and
nonresidential permit activity over the past ten years in Glendale and countywide. From FY16 through
FY21, 4,880 new housing units were constructed in Glendale representing total permit valuation of $926.6
million, which is quite extraordinary given that the city’s focus has been more on nonresidential
development. During this same time period, 1,071 commercial permits were issued with a total permit
valuation of $1.9 billion. This represents new construction only and does not include permits related to
demolition or alterations and additions. There was a significant increase in the level of activity in FY21,
including a large number of new multi-family units permitted.
Project Type
Square Feet
Projected Jobs
Retail/Services
1,385,668
2,771
Office
175,287
701
Industrial
12,554,210
12,554
Total
14,115,165
16,027
Source: City of Glendale Development Services Department, October 2020.
Nonresidential Projects Under Construction
Note: Includes projects permitted in 2020-21 as well as projects submitted in
2020-21 but permitted in 2021-22.
Fiscal Year
Permits
Units
Permit Value
(000's)
Permits
Permit
Value
2010
83
85
$21,119
146
$35,443
2011
115
113
$27,305
132
$37,765
2012
253
283
$64,252
112
$48,426
2013
263
227
$64,950
118
$110,569
2014
79
159
$29,114
159
$109,564
2015
156
349
$96,177
111
$78,156
2016
224
233
$63,724
81
$60,520
2017
316
542
$157,449
82
$70,683
2018
189
218
$48,310
178
$127,361
2019
401
905
$132,526
202
$235,206
2020
470
383
$129,708
266
$604,526
2021
1,290
2,599
$394,913
262
$802,673
Source: City of Glendale, Hansen Permit System.
Building Permit Activity in Glendale
Residential
Commercial
for New Construction
20
While there is no central source of data that would allow for a comparison of the level of commercial
permitting in Glendale to the county as a whole, there is data available from the Census on residential
permitting for all cities and the county. The level of residential permitting activity in Glendale increased
dramatically in FY20 and FY21, including a significant number of new multi-family units. This is similar to
the trends that occurred countywide with a high level of residential activity overall and a significant
increase in multi-family permits, although there is about a one-year lag in the increase in activity in
Glendale versus the county overall. As planned, and given the city’s focus on commercial and industrial
development, Glendale represents only about 2.9 percent of the residential units permitted over the past
five years in Maricopa County.
Housing Unit Completions
Residential permits generally result in housing unit completions with approximately a 3-to-12-month lag.
Currently the lag is approximately 9 to 12 months due to tight labor conditions. MAG tracks housing unit
completions based on certificates of occupancy. Looking back to 2005, we can compare single and multi-
family completions in Glendale to the county. Note that this data is on a calendar year basis, unlike permit
data that is shown on a fiscal year basis.
From 2005 to 2009 during what was a record-setting housing boom for the region, 1,483 single family
units and 1,591 multi-family units were completed in Glendale, representing 1.8 percent of the county
Fiscal Year
SF Units
MF Units
Permit Value
(000's)
SF Units
MF Units
Permit Value
(000's)
2005
742
220
$172,439
46,644
6,982
$8,876,452
2006
366
1,204
$189,170
37,681
10,190
$8,073,823
2007
310
0
$53,682
24,289
8,282
$5,514,770
2008
190
78
$50,049
11,380
8,609
$3,305,439
2009
44
112
$18,103
6,050
2,706
$1,665,238
2010
54
84
$27,037
7,044
601
$1,708,796
2011
113
0
$26,718
5,422
720
$1,392,082
2012
234
0
$55,257
8,576
2,334
$2,336,235
2013
214
0
$60,509
10,569
5,039
$3,388,413
2014
38
120
$24,152
10,484
7,416
$3,796,668
2015
60
286
$94,641
11,920
6,522
$4,373,073
2016
170
62
$59,282
16,042
8,027
$5,543,707
2017
165
377
$133,599
16,349
8,907
$5,797,237
2018
185
33
$54,130
18,001
9,333
$6,017,916
2019
228
677
$144,550
19,164
8,143
$6,479,315
2020
312
71
$129,708
21,369
13,438
$8,338,430
2021
566
2,033
$394,913
28,992
15,787
$10,325,024
Census Building Permits Survey 2005-2019; City of Glendale, 2020 and 2021.
Note: Values for 2018 and 2019 estimated.
New Residential Permit Activity
Glendale
Maricopa County
21
total. The period from 2010 to 2015 was a recovery period in which the West Valley generally lagged the
East Valley. During this time, only 652 new single family units and 28 multi-family units were built in
Glendale, representing about 1 percent of the county total. In the past five years (from 2016 to 2020),
activity has steadily increased in Glendale and countywide with 954 new single family units and 1,039
multi-family units added, representing 1.6 percent of the county total. These past five years have signaled
a significant increase in multi-family development in Glendale and throughout the county, similar to the
2005 to 2009 period.
Commercial Built Space Inventory
Commercial permit activity translates into new nonresidential built space. Data is available from CoStar
to track the increase in inventory in Glendale versus the county for office, industrial and flex space. As of
September 2021, Glendale has approximately 15.8 million square feet of industrial space, 5.7 million
square feet of office space and 500,000 square feet of flex space in inventory, including both occupied
and vacant space. Since 2005, the city has added 5.3 million square feet of industrial space, 2.0 million
square feet of office space and 120,000 square feet of flex space according to CoStar. In terms of industrial
Calendar
Year
Single
Family
Units
Multi-
family
Units
Total
Units
Single
Family
Units
Multi-
family
Units
Total
Units
Glendale
Share of
County
2005
696
134
830
43,812 4,865
48,677
1.71%
2006
350
132
482
42,001 4,046
46,047
1.05%
2007
287
886
1,173
30,745 6,445
37,190
3.15%
2008
114
193
307
14,662 7,735
22,397
1.37%
2009
36
246
282
7,457 8,143
15,600
1.81%
2010
53
28
81
6,411 3,316
9,727
0.83%
2011
119
0
119
5,421 625
6,046
1.97%
2012
231
0
231
8,068 1,685
9,753
2.37%
2013
184
0
184
10,172 3,683
13,855
1.33%
2014
24
0
24
9,241 5,108
14,349
0.17%
2015
41
0
41
9,800 7,198
16,998
0.24%
2016
152
286
438
13,543 7,538
21,081
2.08%
2017
162
52
214
15,088 8,077
23,165
0.92%
2018
173
417
590
15,852 9,334
25,186
2.34%
2019
200
132
332
16,213 9,290
25,503
1.30%
2020
267
152
419
18,858 8,279
27,137
1.54%
2005-2009
1,483
1,591
3,074
138,677
31,234
169,911
1.81%
2010-2014
611
28
639
39,313
14,417
53,730
1.19%
2015-2020
995
1,039
2,034
89,354
49,716
139,070
1.46%
Source: MAG Residential Completion Database.
Glendale
Maricopa County
Housing Unit Completions
22
space, all of the 5.3 million square feet of new space was added since 2016, and the amount of industrial
space currently under construction will result in close to double the inventory in the 12 to 18 months.
Over the past five years, office and industrial inventory countywide has been growing rapidly, and so
Glendale’s share of the county has remained relatively unchanged until 2020 when the city began to
capture a disproportionate share of industrial growth. Glendale’s share of industrial inventory will
continue to increase in the next few years with over 14.1 million square feet of new industrial space
currently under construction or recently completed. According to the Colliers Q2 2021 Industrial Market
Report for Greater Phoenix, there are 19.2 million square feet of space currently under construction
throughout the region, with almost 40 percent of that in Glendale. This is substantial given that Glendale
only represents 6 percent of the population in the county.
Summary
In most measurable areas, Glendale has kept pace with growth in the county over the past decade. This
is significant given that Maricopa County has sustained one of the highest growth rates in the country in
terms of number of new residents from 2010 to 2020. In the past year, Glendale is out-pacing the county
in industrial growth with 14.1 million square feet currently permitted and under construction, which will
be followed by significant employment growth as these buildings become occupied. The next five years
will bring some game-changing projects to the city that have the potential to change the development
landscape and transform Glendale into a growth leader in the region.
The following are examples of recent and upcoming projects that signal transformation for the city:
Year
Flex
Office
Industrial
Flex
Office
Industrial
Flex
Office
Ind
2005
359,888
3,714,681 10,537,945
29,721,090
146,631,069
231,340,664
1.2%
2.5%
4.6%
2006
389,706
3,932,745 10,657,317
30,906,708
153,418,136
238,423,126
1.3%
2.6%
4.5%
2007
389,706
4,605,477 10,804,612
31,274,704
162,345,214
250,004,259
1.2%
2.8%
4.3%
2008
426,773
5,202,625 10,865,884
32,587,603
169,938,521
260,897,436
1.3%
3.1%
4.2%
2009
426,773
5,248,590 10,865,884
33,090,614
172,551,567
263,880,888
1.3%
3.0%
4.1%
2010
426,173
5,262,892 10,845,369
33,209,194
173,904,140
265,103,496
1.3%
3.0%
4.1%
2011
426,173
5,262,892 10,845,369
32,769,791
174,505,625
265,799,252
1.3%
3.0%
4.1%
2012
426,173
5,262,892 10,792,410
32,831,908
175,789,848
268,453,675
1.3%
3.0%
4.0%
2013
426,173
5,262,892 10,385,208
33,128,870
175,677,415
274,132,318
1.3%
3.0%
3.8%
2014
462,628
5,287,892 11,077,224
33,119,340
176,244,456
280,933,340
1.4%
3.0%
3.9%
2015
462,628
5,389,479 11,082,152
33,124,061
179,321,538
285,340,257
1.4%
3.0%
3.9%
2016
462,628
5,389,479 10,600,916
33,116,184
181,856,420
289,260,857
1.4%
3.0%
3.7%
2017
462,628
5,405,479 11,413,816
33,195,835
183,803,042
295,890,231
1.4%
2.9%
3.9%
2018
462,628
5,513,059 11,413,816
33,307,443
185,013,614
304,064,552
1.4%
3.0%
3.8%
2019
482,628
5,535,759 11,413,816
33,608,163
187,776,247
311,259,200
1.4%
2.9%
3.7%
2020
482,628
5,570,152 13,766,588
33,700,051
189,957,221
327,886,472
1.4%
2.9%
4.2%
2021
482,628
5,698,565 15,833,096
33,708,100
191,544,283
338,274,764
1.4%
3.0%
4.7%
Source: CoStar.
Glendale
Maricopa County
Glendale Share of County
Commercial Built Space Inventory
23
In 2020 and 2021, three new luxury car dealerships opened near the Loop 101 and Beardsley Road
in Glendale, including Volvo, Land Rover and Jaguar. These three dealerships combined will
generate a significant amount of new sales tax revenues for the city in coming years. In addition,
the high-end nature of these dealerships indicates a shift in demographics in the Northwest
Valley.
The Crystal Lagoons development that is under construction in the Sports and Entertainment
District is a one-of-a-kind tourism destination that will add approximately 600 new hotel rooms,
130,000 square feet of office space, and 280,000 square feet of retail and restaurants to
Glendale’s inventory and introduce unique brands not found elsewhere in the West. In addition,
this development, which is anticipated to be completed prior to the 2023 Super Bowl, could
generate more than $7.0 million in annual sales and bed tax revenues for the city.
There were 2,033 multi-family units permitted in FY21, which represents a 780 percent increase
over FY20. These units, which could support an estimated 5,500 new residents, will provide
workforce housing in the Loop 303 corridor to support new commercial and industrial
development in that area.
The level of construction activity currently taking place in Glendale has increased construction
sales tax by over 140 percent in just two years and has increased planning and permitting fees by
192 percent. Both prime contracting and speculative builder’s sales tax have increased. Given the
nature of spec industrial development that is occurring along the Loop 303 and the current rise in
real estate prices, the spec buildings currently under construction are anticipated to yield a
significant amount of speculative builder’s tax over the next several years that will, in turn,
support infrastructure and services for residents.
The policies put in place by the City Council over the past five years to support growth and diversify the
mix of industrial and office users, while continuing to provide quality services to existing businesses and
residents, have been effective. The city’s executive leadership has been careful to strike a balance
between housing and employment-related development and to support increased density along key
transportation corridors, like the Loop 101 and Loop 303, and on infill parcels in order to leverage
existing infrastructure capacity. The city has increased its bond rating dramatically and annual general
fund revenues have increased by close to $62 million (34 percent) in the past five years. Based on these
factors, Glendale is now well-positioned for future growth and long-term fiscal sustainability.