Alliant Market Information 2024-2025
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Cit of Glendale, AZ State of the Market and Renewal Presentation May 16, 2024 Presented by: Chris Tobin, Pamela Dominquez, and Banesa Laird Insurance Market & Financial Performance 3 Market Pressures… Cyber Attacks Social Inflation/ Nuclear Verdicts & Legislation Ukraine & Middle East War/Conflicts Geo Political Mass Shootings Great Resignation & Quiet Quitting 3 Inflation Natural Disasters Aging Infrastructure Climate Change Supply Chain & Labor Shortage Proliferation of “secondary” perils (SCS) Q2 23 P/C industry combined ratio, net income at worst levels since 2011: “While the aggregate industry balance sheet is strong enough to meet its contractual commitments and obligations to consumers and businesses, the ever-increasing challenges from claims cost and expense increases, extreme weather events, legal system abuse, and ongoing regulatory resistance to rate adequacy in a few jurisdictions, continue to have significant negative financial consequences for insures,” Robert Gordon, senior vice president of policy, research and international for APCIA. Impactful issues for insureds: 4 Insured natural catastrophe losses exceeded $100bn for 2023, with SCS the largest driver, accounting for $70b of the total. This marks the 4th consecutive year global losses have topped $100b. 03 Insurers produced negligible profit in 2022 – Nearly $125b in Global Insured CAT losses in 2022 – 2nd Worst Loss Year on Record. • United States accounted for 75% of global insured losses 02 Consistent increases in attritional property losses (fires, water damage, tornados, hail, wildfires) – are secondary perils ‘secondary’ anymore? 04 Property capacity reductions: • Further reduction in capacity from incumbents • Coastal, Earthquake and wildfire capacity continue to be especially difficult • Very few new entrants into the commercial property sector 01 07 Social inflation & Litigation Financing driving up liability verdicts and settlements 08 Excess Workers Compensation remains stable, but retained layer may be experiencing increased claims volume 09 Cyber capacity has improved and creating stabilized terms and conditions 10 Ransomware cyber losses are systemic – Expecting $10 Trillion by 2025 06 Liability capacity pull back and withdrawals have been significant over the past two years Inflation continues to add to the issue of valuation across all property classes 05 Property Liability Cyber Market Conditions $540.7 $530.5 $544.8 $559.3 $566.5 $559.1 $538.6 $550.3 $570.7 $567.8 $583.5 $586.9 $607.7 $614.0 $624.4 $653.4 $662.0 $671.6 $673.9 $675.2 $674.2 $673.7 $676.3 $700.9 $717.0 $750.7 $781.5 $742.1 $779.5 $802.2 $812.2 $847.8 $771.9 $819.7 $865.1 $898.5 $1,055.8 $985.3 $983.2 $400 $450 $500 $550 $600 $650 $700 $750 $800 $850 $900 $950 $1,000 $1,050 $1,100 10:Q1 10:Q2 10:Q3 10:Q4 11:Q1 11:Q2 11:Q3 11:Q4 12:Q1 12:Q2 12:Q3 12:Q4 13:Q1 13:Q2 13:Q3 13:Q4 14:Q1 14:Q2 14:Q3 14:Q4 15:Q2 15:Q4 16:Q1 16:Q4 17:Q2 17:Q4 18:Q3 18:Q4 19:Q1 19:Q2 19:Q3 19:Q4 20:Q1 20:Q2 20:Q3 20:Q4 2021 2022 2023Q3 Drop due to near-record 2011 CAT losses (-4.9%) 2022: (-6.4%) Policyholder Surplus is the industry’s financial cushion against large insured events, periods of economic stress and financial market volatility. It is also a source of capital to underwrite new risks. 5 The P/C insurance industry entered the COVID-19 pandemic from a position of strength and was able to withstand the 9.0% surplus decline in Q1 2020 (far less than during the Financial Crisis). 2020 ended with record surplus. 2021 set another new record, exceeding $1 trillion for the first time. Unrealized losses caused surplus to drop sharply in 2022. ($ Billions) .Sources: ISO, A.M .Best, NAIC. Risk and Uncertainty Management Center, University of South Carolina. Policyholder Surplus (Capacity), 2010: Q1 – 2023: Q3 6 COVID-19 has had no discernable net impact on pre-COVID expectations for the combined ratio in 2020; -7.5 pts. due to CATs vs. 4.1 in 2019 (about twice avg.) 115.8 107.5 100.1 98.4 100.8 92.6 95.7 101.0 99.3 101.1 106.5 102.5 96.4 97.0 97.8 100.7 103.7 99.2 98.9 98.6 99.6 104.5 103.4 90 100 110 120 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22F 23F As Recently as 2001, Insurers Paid Out Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in Earned Premiums Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6) Avg. CAT Losses, More Reserve Releases Sandy Impacts Sharply higher CATs are driving large underwriting losses and pricing pressure Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net Losses Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases Higher CAT Losses, Shrinking Reserve Releases, Toll of Soft Market Lower CAT Losses P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2023 F* **Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers 2008–2014. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO (2014-2024F). Pre-COVID 2020 Combined Ratio Est. 99.1 (A.M. Best) Actual = 98 9M: 23 7 Loss Trends & Market Disruptors 8 34% 34% 25% 22% 19% 19% 17% 14% 14% 13% Cyber incidents Business interruption Macroeconomic developments Energy crisis Changes in legislation and regulation Natural catastrophes Climate change Shortage of skilled workforce Fire, explosion Political risks and violence Alliance Risk Barometer 2023 The numbers represent the percentage of all participants who responded (2,712). The numbers do not add up to 100% because more than one risk could be selected. What are Risk Manager’s Concerns? The most important global business risks for 2023 Source: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty 9 Flooding $70.1b Economic Loss – only $20b insured 2018-2022 – More than 10 severe flood events Hurricanes $470.7B+ in economic losses (US ) Hurricane Ida, Ian, Nicole & Idalia = $95b? Hilary, first CA Tropical Storm since 1939 2018-2022 77 named storms Wildfires 2021 Burned over 7m acres $39B in insured loss, *8.68B in 2021 alone 2022 = 7.5m acres 17% increase from 2019 to 2021 in U.S. wildfires and a 223% increase since 1983 2018-2022 82 $1B+ Wildfire events Tornado/Convective Storm 10 singular $1B+ events SCS insured losses growing at a rate of 8.9% since 1990 Accounted for nearly 58% of all global Insured losses $71B in insured losses due to severe convective storm through 2023-year end ($60B in U.S.) Uri – 2021 Over 110 deaths associated Estimated $20B+ insured losses Estimated $5.4B+ insured losses Elliott – 2022 Over 65 deaths associated Largest Q1 loss record Winter Storms Recent CAT Losses Increasing Impact on Liability Market Reviver Legislation Amendments A rise in Sexual Abuse and Molestation claims and settlements Reduced Capacity reinsurer withdrawals have been significant over the past two years Law Enforcement Increased focus on policing policy and procedures as well as pressure on Qualified Immunity Litigation Financing continues to drive large claims and 68% of firms are using it in 2021 Auto Liability Frequency & Severity of losses has returned to pre COVID figures Plaintiff Attorney Strategies specialization and strategies have evolved to get larger verdicts and settlements. Underwriter Scrutiny reinsurers are seeking to grow prudently and are maintaining a disciplined, conservative underwriter approach. Hyper Social Inflation “A Texas jury awarded $300 billion to the family of a teen and her grandmother, who were killed in a 2017 crash with a drunk driver.” This type of verdict is meant to send a message to others. Inflation Rising cost are increasing the size of claims Labor Shortage everyone is doing more with less Exclusions continued restrictions surrounding sexual abuse, Wildfire Exclusions, COVID, cyber, opioids and man made chemicals (PFAS – new focus) 10 11 The Makings of a Hard Market – Timeline Days between billion-dollar disasters Since the 1980s, the U.S. has faced more frequent climate disasters with every passing decade. Between 2020 to 2022, the average number of days between billion-dollar disaster events within one year dropped to just 18. Billion-dollar disasters are events where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion (including CPI adjustment to 2023). No disasters in 1987 and only in 1988 NO OF DAYS 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000 1990 1995 1985 1980 60 113 85 66 78 48 104 47 74 71 44 44 46 54 73 111 39 64 64 30 51 34 23 47 39 35 23 33 40 16 30 30 30 36 20 13 19 18 14 18 20 2020s average 18 days 1980s average 75 days Source: NOAA | 12 Toward the Future Property Renewal Outlook Continued scrutiny of data (SOV, COPE, ITV with Increased Construction Cost) • Must go to market with a compelling narrative Rate increases expected and highly dependent on Wind Season, Reinsurance Market and individual client losses Underwriter submission activity remains high – imperative to engage early and access global market • For the first time in a number of renewal cycles, there are a few new markets writing in the property sector • Many London markets are targeting premium growth in the 20-30% range, including increased rate on renewal business and inflation Unknown impact of RMS v23 • Atlantic wind model expected to show an average 5%-10% uplift to aggregate industry modelled losses –for some areas, could be as much as 20-30% • The most significant changes are to the Florida/Gulf/Southeast areas and commercial exposures • Most carriers, however, are still testing/trialling this version • Anticipated influence on insurer aggregates and pricing likely not fully realized until early 2024 Increased retentions and caps on certain types of exposure • Windstorm & Severe Convective Storm Regional Underwriting: Property markets are affected differently across the nation. • e.g., West: Wildfire/Earthquake, East: Hurricanes, Midwest: SCS, etc. Public Entity Space dislocation – leaving buyers underinsured 14 Liability Renewal Outlook 15 Excess liability continues to be a challenge Specific Problem areas: • Aggregate limits – Many carriers are looking to cap their exposure on pool programs • Attachment point/Retentions are being closely examined • Underwriter scrutiny on Law Enforcement and Sexual Abuse/Misconduct coverages • Emerging Exclusions: PFAS, Biometric Identifiers, Legislative Insurers reporting loss cost increases in the 10-15% rate. Pricing will be based on losses and jurisdiction Engage incumbent carriers early to gain commitment on renewal. Seeking face time with underwriters for complex risks. Cyber Renewal Outlook Leading insurers have indicated “We may have hit rate equilibrium” 2024 Forecast: • 15% to 15% increases, at a minimum, for “good” risks and most starting much higher • Lower overall capacity deployment • Increased per-claim, self-insured retentions for poor security posture • Potential coinsurance percentages added for ransomware • Further reduction of ransomware limit Requirement to evidence security posture: • MFA 100% • Data Backups • Endpoint Detection • Employee Education & Training Programs 16 Workers Compensation Leading Concerns 17 Wage Inflation’s impact on premiums & Medical Expense Inflation Underwriter Concerns: Per Occurrence exposure to CAT loss; rate adequacy; changes in the labor market Investment Yield on Long Tail Coverage Rate Expectations: Account Specific Trends to Watch: • Increase in state legislative bills filed for Presumptive and PTSD benefits • Opioid Epidemic • Data analytics and AI emerging in claims handling • Increased severity of workplace injuries • Mental health exposures • Medical marijuana • Increasing Payroll’s impact on premium Remote Work: Out of State employees & impact on productivity and compliance 18 Property/Casualty Coverage overview and Budget for 2024/2025 19 City of Glendale Presentation Overview Review of Current Insurance Programs Property General Liability Workers Compensation Cyber liability Ancillary Coverages Renewal Strategy -Marketing Insurance Premium Budget Projections 24/25 Parting thoughts on Insurance Renewals 20 City of Glendale Property Overview • Replacement cost for physical damage • Earthquake Coverage provided • Flood Coverage including Zones A&V • Automatic acquisition of new locations • Blanket fine arts coverage • Municipal bond and tax revenue interruption coverage • Course of construction coverage • Coverage for Misc./Unnamed locations • Boiler and machinery (includes jurisdictional inspections) • Cyber liability limits up to $2M • Pollution limits up to $2M • Built-in loss control and appraisals 21 Current Property Insurance Overview Alliant Insurance Property Program (APIP) 2023/2024 Limits 24/25 Updates Total Insured Values $999,051,296 $1,057,880,174 Policy Limit $1,000,000,000 $1,000,000,000 Deductible $100,000 All Risk Deductible $100,000 All Risk Deductible Key Sub-limits: Sub-limits: Sub-limits: Business Interruption $100,000,000 $100,000,000 Course of Construction $25,000,000 $25,000,000 Terrorism $100,000,000 $100,000,000 Flood (Non High Hazard) $75,000,000 $75,000,000 Flood (Flood Zone A&V) $7,500,000 $7,500,000 Earthquake $100,000,000 $100,000,000 Boiler and Machinery (APIP) $100,000,000 $100,000,000 Cyber Liability (APIP) $2,000,000 (APIP member limit) $2,000,000 Pollution (APIP) $2,000,000 (APIP member limit) $2,000000 Expiring Premium $1,783,110.36 22 Current Coverage Coverage is provided through the APIP program Earthquake: $100,000,000 limits with a $100K deductible Flood: $75,000,000 Limits with a $250,00 all flood zones $7,500,000 Flood for Zones A&V with a $500,000 deductible Current Earthquake and Flood Overview- in APIP 23 Coverage for damages to third parties arising out of the City’ negligence includes: • General Liability- Occurrence • Law Enforcement Liability • Automobile Liability • Public Officials (Directors and Officers) Liability • Employment Practices Liability General Liability Current Glendale Excess Liability Limits Structure $40M Great American Assurance Company $5M xs $35M excess of $1M SIR $36M Navigators Specialty Insurance Company $10M xs $25M excess of $1M SIR $26M StarStone Specialty $5M xs $20M excess of $1M SIR $21M Allied World Assurance Co. (U.S.) Inc. $10M xs $10M excess of $1M SIR $11M The Princeton Excess and Surplus Lines Insurance Company $5M xs $5M excess of $1M SIR $6M Safety National Casualty Corporation $5M excess of $1M SIR $1M $1,000,000 Retention Total Annual Premium $2,031,898.28 Including Taxes/ Fees *Limits shown do not reflect the applicable Policy Aggregates for each layer participant 25 Current Excess Workers’ Compensation Coverage Overview Coverage for injuries to employees while in the course and scope of employment Insurance Carrier Safety National Limits Statutory Employers Liability Limit $ 5,000,000 Current Retention $ 2,000,000 Presumptive Retention $ 2,500,000 Payroll at Binding $ 160,052,353 Expiring Premium $ 480,477 26 Glendale’s Cyber Liability Coverage 23/24 LIMITS STRUCTURE Part of APIP Cyber Program (Lloyd's of London Beazley Syndicate) Limits are Shared among all members $45,000,000 Annual Policy and Program Aggregate Limit of Liability for all members combined Coverage Includes: $2,000,000 maximum limit, per occurrence, each member Breach Response Costs, Business Interruption, Cyber Extortion, Data Recovery Costs, Dependent Business Interruption, Data & Network Liability, Regulatory Defense & Penalties, Sub-limits Include: Fraudulent Instruction, Funds Transfer Fraud, Telephone Fraud, Computer Hardware replacement costs Retention: $500,000, Per Occurrence for each Insured Premium Included in APIP Cost APIP -Beazley Breach Response Services (BBR) Cyber Enhancement Option (Beazley) Notified Individuals- Includes any notification Services, call center services, credit & identify monitoring, and Beazley Breach Response Services Limits Purchased: 250,000 Notified individuals Retention: 100 Notified individuals Excess Cyber $3M Excess of $2M with Liberty Surplus Dedicated Excess Limits $3M Limits are excess of APIP Cyber and drop down to become primary dedicated limits should APIP aggregate layer be exhausted Excess Cyber $2M excess of $5M $2,000,000 Dedicated Limits (excess of $5M) Total Cyber Limits $7M 27 Crime Insurance Overview CURRENT CRIME COVERAGE LIMITS National Union Fire Company of Pittsburgh $10,000,000 Coverage Includes:Employee Theft – Per Loss Coverage including Faithful Performance of Duty Sub-Limits/Endorsements: Forgery or Alteration - including Credit, Debit, or Charge Card Forgery Revision of Discovery and Prior Theft or Dishonesty $25,000 Sub-Limit. Inside the Premises – Theft of Money and Securities Include Expenses Incurred to Establish Amount of Covered Loss - $75,000 Sub-limit Inside the Premises – Robbery & Safe Burglary of Other Property Employee Post Termination Coverage – 90 Days Outside the Premises Bonded Employees Exclusion Deleted endorsement Computer Fraud • Add Faithful Performance of Duty Coverage for Government Employees – Employee Theft Per Loss Limit Retention: $50,000 Total Annual Premium $30,750 28 Policies LIMITS Airport Owners' and Operators' Liability (Chubb Insurance) $25,000,000 Limits with No Retention Coverages Include Bodily Injury, Property Damage, Hanger Keepers, Non Owned Aircraft, Products Completed (Aggregate), Medical Expenses, Personal Injury and Advertising Injury Drone Liability coverage The City owns and insures 34 for liability coverage for $1M in limits. Fiduciary Liability (Hudson Insurance) $5,000,000 in Aggregate Limits Glendale Section 457 Deferred Compensation Plan - 98742-00 Protects fiduciaries against mismanagement of an employee benefit plans, or plan assets. Coverages Includes Includes Defense Costs, and sub-limits for HIPPA and HITECH Fines & Penalties, Compliance Fees, Settler Coverage, Waiver of Recourse Special Liability Insurance Program (SLIP) Location Covered: Regional Public Safety Training $2,000,000 Per Occurrence, $1,000,000 Fire Damage Liability Sub-limit Coverages Include s General Liability, Personal Injury (Including Bodily and Property Damage), Fire Damage Liability, Non-Owned and Hired Automobile Airport Owners’ and Operators’ Liability Drones Fiduciary Special Liability Insurance Program (SLIP) Current Miscellaneous Insurance Policies Overview 29 City of Glendale Renewal Strategy Marketing Process: Property- Glendale is expected to receive a lower rate increase for their property renewal than expiring. The APIP program includes property for buildings, contents, auto, equipment breakdown, cyber and pollution coverage. Alliant has conducted a soft marketing of each coverage the last few years and premiums have been higher once each coverage, and premium is broken out separately than they would be as a package in APIP. General Liability – Alliant went to the market to find a replacement to Allied World Insurance Co (AWAC) as their premium increased by more than 200% over expiring. AWAC currently participates in the $10M excess of $10M layer. Alliant was able to find replacement to the layer participation by adding two new carriers to replace AWAC. Bowhead and Upland will each put up $5M in limits to make up the $10M layer. We are also working with PRISM for an alternative $5M limit that can take over if the pricing and coverage makes sense. 30 Glendale Renewal Budget Projections 2024/2025 Current Line of Coverage Renewal Date Carrier (s) 2023/2024 Program Cost (Annual) Estimated % Change 2024/2025 Estimated Cost Alliant Property Insurance Program (APIP) Includes Property, Boiler & Machinery, Earthquake, Flood, Auto, Cyber Liability, and Pollution Liability coverages 7/1/2024 Various Including - Lexington $1,783,110.36 24.24% $2,215,270.30 BBR -Cyber Enhancement over APIP for Notified Individuals- (250,000 Notified Lives) + Cyber Excess Solutions $3M XS $2M 7/1/2024 Beazley-Lloyds $280,704.00 10.00% $308,774.40 Excess Cyber $2M XS $5M ($7M total limits) 7/1/2024 Liberty Surplus Insurance Corporation $186,121.20 10.00% $204,733.32 Excess Liability $1M SIR with $40M Excess Policy Limits (Note, 24/25 Renewal SIR will be $2M) 7/1/2024 1. $ 5M Safety National 2. $5M X $5M Princeton 3. $10M X $10M AWAC 4. $ 5M X $20M StarStone 5. $10M X $25M Navigators 6. $ 5M X $35M Great- American $2,031,898.28 27.60% $2,592,628.96 Alliant Crime Insurance Program (ACIP) 7/1/2024 National Union Fire Insurance Company (AIG) $30,750.00 17.00% $35,977.50 Fiduciary Liability 7/10/2024 Hudson Insurance Company $15,564.00 20.00% $18,676.80 Airport Liability Airport Owners’ and Operators’ Liability 7/1/2023- 7/1/2026 ACE Property and Casualty Insurance Company (Chubb) $14,393.00 N/A $14,393.00 Drone Liability (from 23 drones to 34) 7/1/2024 Starr Companies $18,750.00 32.00% $24,750.00 Premises Pollution Liability 8/15/2023- 8/15/25 Fireman’s Fund Indemnity Corporation $72,483.55 -100.00% Special Liability Insurance Program (SLIP) Regional Public Safety Training Center 9/29/2024 Great American E&S Insurance Company $6,793.97 10.00% $7,473.37 TOTAL Cost (not including WC) $4,440,568.36 22.12% $5,422,677.65 Excess Workers’ Compensation and Employer’s Liability 7/1/2024 Safety National Casualty Corporation $480,477.00 11.26% $534,575.00 31 Parting Thoughts on 2024/2025 Insurance Renewals • Rates will continue to rise for both property and liability as limits/capacity decrease. Alliant will continue to work closely with the City to review coverages and options for each line of coverage as needed. • Public agencies with a history of or exposure to large verdicts and liability settlements will continue to see increases and the marketplace for coverage will continue to retract. • Dramatic price increases and reductions in coverage can be expected in the casualty market, as Law Enforcement claims put municipalities in the spotlight. • Aging Public Entity infrastructure, undervalued locations, and lack of updates on older buildings, will continue to be a concern to the carriers. Thank you! Questions?