091321IB.DOCX

Informal Meeting Minutes
Monday, September 13, 2021
9:30 AM
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
Maricopa County, Arizona 
(and the Boards of Directors of the Flood Control District, 
Library District, Stadium District, Improvement Districts 
and/or Board of Deposit)
"The mission of Maricopa County is to 
provide regional leadership and fiscally 
responsible, necessary public services to 
its residents so they can enjoy living in 
healthy and safe communities”
Board Members
Jack Sellers, Chairman, District 1
Bill Gates, Vice Chairman, District 3
Steve Chucri, District 2
Clint Hickman, District 4
Steve Gallardo, District 5
County Manager
Joy Rich
Clerk of the Board
Juanita Garza
Meeting Location
Supervisors’ Auditorium
205 W Jefferson, 
Phoenix, AZ 85003
BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
The Board of Supervisors of Maricopa County, Phoenix, Arizona, convened in an Informal Session at 
9:30 AM on Monday, September 13, 2021, in the Supervisors’ Auditorium, 205 W Jefferson, 10th Floor 
Phoenix, AZ 85003, with the following members present:  Jack Sellers, Chairman, District 1; Bill Gates, 
Vice Chairman, District 3; Steve Chucri, Supervisor, District 2 (remote); Clint Hickman, Supervisor, 
District 4; Steve Gallardo, Supervisor, District 5. Also present: Juanita Garza, Clerk; Joy Rich, County 
Manager; Kelly Gardiner, Minutes Coordinator; Andrea Cummings, Legal Counsel (remote).  Minutes 
compiled by Maria Ceaglske.
PRESENTATION
1.
ECONOMIC FORECAST PRESENTATION
Presentation regarding the Economic Forecast.
Jim Rounds, Rounds Consulting Group (C-18-22-104-X-00)
Chairman Sellers introduced Jim Rounds, Rounds Consulting Group.
Mr. Rounds started with an update on how the County, Arizona and the U.S. have recovered 
from the COVID downturn. He said on the slide below the most important statistic is the one for 
the COVID recession in terms of jobs. He stated the job recovery in Arizona is approximately 
90% and there is an explanation for it. He said some of it is the high performance with the state 
and some of it has to do with basic math that he will talk about later in the presentation.

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Mr. Rounds said with major influxes up, there is a fall in the future, and this is what was seen 
with the GDP. He said it has been growing at a decent rate and  some of the GDP is still growing 
due to the federal stimulus money. He said they are not expecting a recession any time soon. 
Mr. Rounds stated the stimulus money has kept the economy afloat, but if there is a shock to 
the economy, it will hurt. His main point is there is going to be volatility and he recommends the 
Board be cautious because there is still a lot of uncertainty.
This slide below illustrates the ten leading indicators are moving up, but to be aware of anything 
indicating the economy will be slowing.

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Mr. Rounds said this slide below shows the COVID impact on the US employment. For those 
making less than $40,000 there was almost a 25% drop in employment and have been the last 
to finally come back up. U.S. employment behavior has been different under the current 
circumstances, and said he expects a rebound from the current recession in the next year.
Mr. Rounds explained that unemployment insurance claim statistics show it is becoming more 
balanced. He said in his opinion, it is a legitimate sociology argument that going through a 
downturn like this lets people realize what their priorities are. You might see a one-person 
earner in the household because it is realized they can support the household. He said it is 
possible that balance will be restored within a year.

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Mr. Rounds noted that the new home sales price across the U.S. is still very strong.
He said there were very favorable interest rates and people are not being impacted as much 
as they were before, so there was a surge in car sales that probably would have been 
forecasted as being much more conservative.

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Mr. Rounds explained the dashed line in the graph below basically illustrates how long it took 
to recover after the great recession and how different this has been from the pandemic 
recession. It has been projected we will recover the lost jobs by the end of this calendar year.
Mr. Rounds explained the Basic Math slide below and said it is to illustrate that when you start 
with one dollar and you lose half, you have fifty cents. The ability to recover those fifty cents 
requires a 100% growth. When there is a major fall, it requires a huge jump to get it back to 
where you were.

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Mr. Rounds provided a historical perspective. Reviewing the following four slides, Arizona was 
rated third in 2019 and second in 2020 in population growth in the U.S. In job growth, Arizona 
was rated first in 2019 and fifth in 2020. He said this is just about the same that has been 
occurring – Arizona being in the top five in these categories. He said some of these statistics 
do not tell the entire story. There is going to be a period where statistics seem to indicate 
Arizona is underperforming. He said this will not translate into some catastrophic impact on the 
County revenues.

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Mr. Rounds said that right now Arizona is number 17 in the U.S. in job growth. He said one of 
the reasons is because Arizona was not hurt as badly as other states during the pandemic 
recession in terms of percent. So, Arizona did not have to grow by some of the strong rates to 
get back to where it was. Arizona and Maricopa County began recovering jobs earlier than 
others. He said Arizona statistics will recover by the end of this year.
Mr. Rounds said the next two slides show Arizona as number eight in terms of employment 
losses during COVID. He said economic recovery in the state is at 94% from 97%. He said full 
recovery is right around the corner.

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Supervisor Hickman asked what was driving Idaho and Utah. He said they seem to be at the 
top of the best list. Mr. Rounds responded that they have done well due to small businesses 
staying afloat. Supervisor Hickman then asked if more Californians are moving in the direction 
of Idaho and Utah instead of in the direction of Arizona. Mr. Rounds stated that Idaho is limited 
in getting the high wage jobs, but it could be more supportive of the supply chain from state to 
state. It could also attract some limited manufacturing. Mr. Rounds said Utah is getting 
aggressive at incentivizing projects.

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Mr. Rounds said the slide below is the equivalent for Arizona and job losses by income 
category. He said the lower the income, the greater number of lost jobs, and the lower the wage 
the higher the number is on unemployment. He predicted this will work itself out over the next 
year. 
Mr. Rounds stated the high unemployment rate in Arizona has a reason.  He said if you have a 
growth state like Arizona, people move here and none of them have jobs, but they are looking. 
That fact drives the unemployment rate up.

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Mr. Rounds said he is frequently asked, based on the great recession and COVID, are we more 
volatile than the national economy?  He said this is not true. He said it took time to come out of 
the great recession and the slide indicates Arizona is outperforming the U.S.
The slide below shows COVID recession job losses by industry. Mr. Rounds reviewed the 
statistics and said it is not totally consistent because some industries are larger than others.
The following slide shows the COVID recession job recoveries and Mr. Rounds reviewed the 
statistics. The recovery appeared stronger because the size of the industry is larger and yet 
there is still a lot of recovery to go to return to pre-COVID numbers. He said one slide cannot 
tell the entire story.

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In his review of the following slide, Mr. Rounds said this is his greatest concern for the state 
and the biggest opportunity. He said in this case, we need to be close to where we were before 
COVID relative to the U.S. The County is at about 85% to 90% .  There is concern as to whether 
the indicators will continue to turn upward. He said if the County could catch up to the U.S. in 
per capita per income it would represent a massive increase in terms of job growth and 
revenues.  He acknowledged the Greater Phoenix Economic Council (GPEC) doing a wonderful 
job over the years.

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Mr. Rounds stated that the median price for housing continues to be a problem to the economy 
of the County. When housing is too high, people cannot spend in the community enough to 
sustain the economy.
The following slide shows the expected increase in home permits.

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Mr. Rounds stated he had expected renter occupancy to be much higher and he thinks it will 
still increase because of the volume being offered right now. 
Mr. Rounds said the Board of Supervisors has influence and he reviewed the bullet points on 
this slide.

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Mr. Rounds explained how balance is important in an economy. He said with a return-on-
investment outlook, small changes can result in massive revenue growth.
Mr. Rounds reviewed the bullet points on the following slide.

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Mr. Rounds said the state and the County should have a full job recovery by the end of 2021. 
He does not see a recession within the next couple of years. 
Mr. Rounds reviewed the following slide and explained how the figures were reached. He said 
the baseline was 5% and the conservative was 3%. He said there are more downside risks than 
upside risks in the short term. He said with the methodology used it ended up at about a 2% 
reduction in the sales tax revenue. Mr. Rounds said the County is likely to collect more money 
than expected but expects this extra money will go away in a couple of years.

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Mr. Rounds asked the Board if there were any questions.
Supervisor Gates thanked Mr. Rounds for the information and insight. He had comments and 
questions concerning increased population and job growth. Mr. Rounds responded that 
population growth was going to continue for a while, but this must be matched up with job 
opportunities and he went on to explain why.
Supervisor Hickman said the decisions need to be happening at a level closer to the people. 
He has several concerns pertaining to the water issue in the valley. He said agriculture is 
sustainable because eventually the water used in irrigation returns to the water table. He has 
concerns about fields being plowed under for manufacturing which is not sustainable. He 
knows manufacturing produces long-term jobs which is also needed. He worries about water 
conservation when a huge water park is being built in Glendale. He asked how to address 
these types of problems in connection with the economy of the County. Mr. Rounds said in the 
long-term, pricing will be key. He suggested better technology on the agriculture side. He said 
the County could lead and implement green ideas, but these types of ideas take time. 
Supervisor Hickman talked about heat islands and the role of flood irrigation historically and 
Mr. Rounds offered to provide more information to the Chiefs of Staff concerning holistic 
planning.
Chairman Sellers spoke of his concern on keeping up with infrastructure during economic 
growth. The infrastructure groups he is involved with are now including water. He commented 
on Intel and said they are recycling about 95% of their water and their goal is to recycle 100% 
of their water. 
Gallardo asked about the causes of economic inequality. He said housing is the number one 
issue in his district. He said his citizens are priced out of renting and out of buying. He asked 
how income inequality can be addressed. Mr. Rounds responded these policy topics need to 
be broken down into policy issues that are more manageable. He said when there are too many 
questions with a lot of variety, it is very hard to get anything done. 
Supervisor Chucri talked about the increased costs in our economy and asked if there was a 
breaking point in affordability. He asked if there was a breaking point where the consumer says, 
"no more?" Is there a pushback effect where sales across the retail sector begin to drop? Mr. 
Rounds said economics will work itself out over time most of the time. Yet, in times like these, 
different areas must be addressed in different ways until there is change over time. Mr. Rounds 
provided an illustration for how this happens. 
Supervisor Chucri asked about increasing vehicle sales. Mr. Rounds responded when there is 
imbalance, it takes time to even out. He said he would remain cautious with revenues.
 
Chairman Sellers thanked Mr. Rounds for his presentation.
2.
LEGISLATIVE UPDATE
Presentation regarding the 2021 and 2022 Legislative Session 
   Michelle Hindman, Director, Government Relations     
Craig Sullivan, Executive Director, County Supervisors Association of Arizona (C-06-22-869-
X-00)
Michelle Hindman noted the 2021 legislative session was unique for many reasons. She said 
they would not have been as successful as they were without the support of the Board of 
Supervisors. She said they completed the department solicitation for the 2022 legislative 
session and vetting process. She said there is nothing to consider at this time, but there may 
be in the next session. She stated they will continue to fight along with Pima County and the

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County Supervisors’ Association (CSA) against the cost shift in the department of Juvenile 
Corrections to the County and will continue to participate in defense and legislation. Ms. 
Hindman turned the presentation over to Craig Sullivan. 
Mr. Sullivan stated the presentation was to familiarize the Board with the activities of the CSA 
as it relates to Maricopa County. He thanked the Board for their participation.
Mr. Sullivan provided an overview of the following slides. He said the CSA’s defined mission is 
to serve as facilitator to all the counties in Arizona.

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Mr. Sullivan reviewed the Board of Director’s slide and said the leadership represents the 61 
County Supervisors from the 15 counties in Arizona. 
Mr. Sullivan reviewed the slide below listing the guest speakers in the last year. The selection 
criteria for speakers is to provide relevant conversation on policy and how it interfaces with 
County government.

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Mr. Sullivan reviewed the following slide elaborating on the strategic initiatives of the CSA.  The 
first being the data collection initiative where they are building out data for the County 
Encyclopedia, County Revenue Dashboard, and County Employment Dashboard. This is to 
provide information to support the CSA decision making and advocacy at the state legislature. 
This continues to build every year.

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Mr. Sullivan provided some visualizations of the County Encyclopedia, the Revenue 
Dashboard, and other items.

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Mr. Sullivan reviewed the Public Safety Pensions strategic initiatives. He said the CSA has 
been involved with reforms at the State Capitol along with labor unions, and the League of 
Cities and Towns for many years. Now they are involved in three key things:

Helping support building capacity in counties about these pension systems and the 
debts that exist,

Working as a coalition to bring their voice to the PSPRS Board of Trustees to inform 
their decision making. This is done through both the advisory committee and through 
their appointee to the PSPRS Board of Trustees, Alan McGuire,

Talking among counties about strategies to effectively control debt such as finding 
strategies for long-term costs.

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Mr. Sullivan reviewed the third strategic initiative as being the COVID -19 response.  Maricopa 
County was the tip of the spear on the COVID response. He said CSA worked as a facilitator 
among the counties to support the advocacy at the federal level engagement with Treasury, 
the Governor’s Office, and the Department of Human Services (DHS). He noted that Maricopa 
County’s professional staff involvement with the conversation CSA had with the other counties 
was immensely helpful because they were generous with their technical expertise and insight.
Mr. Sullivan reviewed the following 2021 session numbers. He said there are new laws that 
have not gone into effect, but they will go into effect September 29, 2021.

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Mr. Sullivan provided a brief review of the state budget. The left side of the slide shows a brief 
outline of the spending budget, how they paid down some debt and added about $1 billion to 
PSPRS and CORP accounts. Mr. Sullivan said the second category is on the right side of the 
slide. First, the property tax piece impacts counties. The state is phasing down the commercial 
assessment ratio from 18% ultimately to 16%. Secondly, is the income tax piece where the 
state did put in a large income tax reduction that is trying to get down to a flat tax. There is an 
effort being made to refer this tax package to the ballot. If this is successful, it will bring some 
chaos into the system.
Supervisor Hickman questioned the payoff of state buildings. He asked if Mr. Sullivan recalled 
a figure that showed if there was an opportunity cost or a penalty for paying those early? Mr. 
Sullivan said he did not have an answer to the question, but he would follow up and provide 
Supervisor Hickman an answer later.

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Mr. Sullivan reviewed some major county touchpoints in the following slide.
Mr. Sullivan broke down some major transportation funding and infrastructure as seen on the 
following slide.

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Mr. Sullivan provided a brief highlight of the broadband investment. He said this was an issue 
for all counties and that $140 million was set aside for a special grant program to address these 
issues.
Mr. Sullivan noted there was a special session held that focused on wildfires and flooding and 
he gave a brief review.

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Mr. Sullivan stated the CSA ran a few bills mostly on its proactive advocacy side. Most were 
not particularly important to Maricopa County, but two were:

A minor change to military leave pay

A timetable for write-in candidates.
Mr. Sullivan stated a core function of what the CSA does is to be positioned to deal with 
Reactive Advocacy. This is the hundreds of issues that come in that touch County operations. 
He said he could not express his appreciation enough for the Maricopa County Government 
Relations Department. He also thanked Supervisor Gallardo for his role in this.
Mr. Sullivan said CSA is moving forward and getting ready for the next legislative session and 
is holding its legislative summit at the end of this month in Yavapai County.

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Supervisor Gallardo thanked Mr. Sullivan for acting as a quarterback for the Counties. He stated 
he appreciated fellow Supervisors across the state, and he learned a lot about the variety of 
needs across the state. 
Supervisor Hickman thanked Mr. Sullivan and Supervisor Gallardo for his actions as president 
of the CSA during the pandemic. He said he knows the job of leadership was a tough one.
Supervisor Gates echoed his colleagues and thanked Mr. Sullivan and his staff for all the work 
the organization does. 
Supervisor Chucri thanked Mr. Sullivan for his continued professionalism, and thanked Michelle 
Hindman for her work in the Government Relations Department.
Chairman Sellers reiterated many the previous comments. He shared that before he became a 
supervisor, he traveled all over the state with the transportation board. The thing he was 
reminded of was the real leaders were the County Supervisors. They were the ones involved 
with the state on transportation issues. Chairman Sellers stated Mr. Sullivan is highly regarded 
statewide.
3.
EXECUTIVE SESSION
Vote to convene in Executive Session to consider the items on the Executive Agenda dated 
Monday, September 13, 2021, for Board of Supervisors and relevant Special Districts pursuant 
to the statutory authority listed for each item.
Motion to approve by Supervisor Bill Gates, seconded by Supervisor Clint Hickman
Ayes: Jack Sellers, Bill Gates, Steve Chucri, Clint Hickman, Steve Gallardo
MEETING ADJOURNED
There being no further business to come before the Board, the meeting was adjourned.  
______________________________
Jack Sellers, Chairman of the Board
ATTEST:
____________________________
Juanita Garza, Clerk of the Board