PROJECT LAGERHAUS IMPACT ANALYSIS 04142020 WITH HIGHLIGHTS.PDF

Project
Lagerhaus
April 2020

Impact Analysis
April 2020
Overview
Maricopa County has requested an analysis of Project Lagerhaus’ impact over the next 10 
years to demonstrate the economic value the company will.
Based on the assumptions outlined below, Project Lagerhaus will generate an estimated 
$1.4 million in direct tax revenues and an additional $277,500 in indirect tax revenues for a 
total of $1.7 million in tax revenue to the Maricopa County over a 10-year period. 
In 10 years this company will directly create an estimated $50.1 million of personal income, 
plus an additional $50.8 million in indirect personal income for a total of $101.3 million. 
Over a 10-year period Project Lagerhaus will create $637.1 million in economic output, with 
$441.8 million in direct economic output, and $195.3 million in indirect output. 
Assumptions
Total Employment at the end of 10 Years: 100 jobs
Annual Payroll at the end of 10 Years: $5.1 million 
Total Square Feet of Property: 700,000 square feet by Year 1
Total Real Property Improvement Investment: $80.0 million
Total Personal Property Investment: $20.0 million
Property tax is calculated at a Class 6 assessment ratio, resulting in a reduced property tax 
due to the foreign trade zone.
10-Year Economic Impact to Maricopa County
Impact
Jobs
Personal Income
Economic Output
Revenues
Direct
100
$50,500,000 
$441,792,620 
$1,393,309 
Indirect
126
$50,804,850 
$195,292,320 
$277,500 
Total
226
$101,304,850 
$637,084,940 
$1,670,809

April 2020
Direct Revenue and Economic Impact
Year
Jobs
Personal Income
Output
Revenues
2020
100
$5,050,000 
$44,179,262 
$469,368 
2021
100
$5,050,000 
$44,179,262 
$103,174 
2022
100
$5,050,000 
$44,179,262 
$104,346 
2023
100
$5,050,000 
$44,179,262 
$105,063 
2024
100
$5,050,000 
$44,179,262 
$105,256 
2025
100
$5,050,000 
$44,179,262 
$104,574 
2026
100
$5,050,000 
$44,179,262 
$102,938 
2027
100
$5,050,000 
$44,179,262 
$101,302 
2028
100
$5,050,000 
$44,179,262 
$99,339 
2029
100
$5,050,000 
$44,179,262 
$97,949 
Total
100
$50,500,000 
$441,792,620 
$1,393,309 
Year
Jobs
Personal Income
Output
Revenues
2020
126
$5,080,485 
$19,529,232 
$27,750 
2021
126
$5,080,485 
$19,529,232 
$27,750 
2022
126
$5,080,485 
$19,529,232 
$27,750 
2023
126
$5,080,485 
$19,529,232 
$27,750 
2024
126
$5,080,485 
$19,529,232 
$27,750 
2025
126
$5,080,485 
$19,529,232 
$27,750 
2026
126
$5,080,485 
$19,529,232 
$27,750 
2027
126
$5,080,485 
$19,529,232 
$27,750 
2028
126
$5,080,485 
$19,529,232 
$27,750 
2029
126
$5,080,485 
$19,529,232 
$27,750 
Total
126
$50,804,850 
$195,292,320 
$277,500 
Year
Jobs
Personal Income
Output
Revenues
2020
226
$10,130,485 
$63,708,494 
$497,118 
2021
226
$10,130,485 
$63,708,494 
$130,924 
2022
226
$10,130,485 
$63,708,494 
$132,096 
2023
226
$10,130,485 
$63,708,494 
$132,813 
2024
226
$10,130,485 
$63,708,494 
$133,006 
2025
226
$10,130,485 
$63,708,494 
$132,324 
2026
226
$10,130,485 
$63,708,494 
$130,688 
2027
226
$10,130,485 
$63,708,494 
$129,052 
2028
226
$10,130,485 
$63,708,494 
$127,089 
2029
226
$10,130,485 
$63,708,494 
$125,699 
Total
226
$101,304,850 
$637,084,940 
$1,670,809 
Indirect Revenue and Economic Impact
Total Revenue and Economic Impact

April 2020
Property Tax Analysis
Year
Property Taxes
Total
Company
Residential
2020
$75,056 
$69,087 
$5,969 
2021
$76,887 
$70,917 
$5,970 
2022
$78,059 
$72,090 
$5,969 
2023
$78,776 
$72,807 
$5,969 
2024
$78,969 
$73,000 
$5,969 
2025
$78,287 
$72,318 
$5,969 
2026
$76,651 
$70,682 
$5,969 
2027
$75,015 
$69,046 
$5,969 
2028
$73,052 
$67,083 
$5,969 
2029
$71,662 
$65,693 
$5,969 
Total
$762,414 
$702,723 
$59,691

Impact Analysis
April 2020
About GPEC Economic Impact Model
The Greater Phoenix impact model calculates economic and revenue impacts of new 
business in the region. The underlying theory behind this regional model is that all 
communities benefit when a new business locates in the region, both in terms of employed 
residents and new revenues. The purpose of the model is to show how this distribution of 
economic benefits may occur.
Economic Impact
The impact model uses county-level multipliers from the Minnesota IMPLAN Group for 
Maricopa County to calculate direct and indirect impact on specific communities in the 
Greater Phoenix region.  The model also calculates economic impact to the county and state 
economies in terms of new jobs, output, and revenue generated. In addition to jobs, new 
businesses create new consumer spending throughout. The payroll from the new 
businesses can be converted into effective buying income. On a regional basis, effective 
buying income is distributed across retail and service categories based on spending 
patterns from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 
Revenue Impact
Direct revenue impacts include revenues generated directly by the businesses, based on 
project information such as real property values, employment, direct sales, and local and 
nonlocal purchases. Additional revenues generated by related supplier and consumer jobs, 
and supported residents are included in the indirect and total impact results. All revenue 
projections are in current dollars. 
Disclaimer
The results from this analysis suggest only one possible scenario based on given project 
parameters and assumptions, and do not exclude other development possibilities under 
different assumptions. The economic impact model serves as a tool for basic quantitative 
evaluations for economic development projects.  The results are based on the current 
economic structure of the communities, and current tax rates. The results of the model are 
order-of-magnitude estimates and are intended only as a general guide as to show how 
businesses and development projects may impact the region.