Q32021 MARICOPA COUNTY - FINAL.PDF

Maricopa County Board of Supervisors -
2021/2022 Economic Update
September 2021
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

U.S. Job Losses 
Seasonally Adjusted; Peak to Trough 
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
• 1990-1991 Recession
- Duration: 9 Months
- Lost Jobs: 1,250,000
- % of Jobs: 1.1%
• 2001 Recession
- Duration: 9 Months 
- Lost Jobs: 1,605,000
- % of Jobs: 1.2%
• Great Recession (2008)
- Lost Jobs: 7,395,000
- % of Jobs: 5.3%
• COVID Recession (2020)
- Lost Jobs: 22,362,000
- % of Jobs: 14.7%
- % Recovered: 76.2%

U.S. Real GDP
Annualized Percent Change; Quarterly, 2010 - 2021*
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
2010 Q1
2010 Q2
2010 Q3
2010 Q4
2011 Q1
2011 Q2
2011 Q3
2011 Q4
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2014 Q3
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
2017 Q1
2017 Q2
2017 Q3
2017 Q4
2018 Q1
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
2018 Q4
2019 Q1
2019 Q2
2019 Q3
2019 Q4
2020 Q1
2020 Q2
2020 Q3
2020 Q4
2021 Q1
2021 Q2
*Data through Q2 2021
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
Recession Period

U.S. Leading Economic Index
Monthly, 1985 - 2021*
Source: The Conference Board
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-85
Jan-86
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
*Through July 2021
Recession Period
www.roundsconsulting.com

U.S. Employment – Percent Change by Wage Group
Seasonally Adjusted; Percent Change from January 2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Less than $40K
$40K - $60K
$60K - $80K
$80K - $100K
Over $100K
www.roundsconsulting.com

U.S. Unemployment Insurance Continued Claims
Seasonally Adjusted; Weekly, 1985 – 2021*
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
 -
 5,000,000
 10,000,000
 15,000,000
 20,000,000
 25,000,000
Jan-85
Jan-87
Jan-89
Jan-91
Jan-93
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-99
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
Jan-21
*Through August 7th, 2021
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
Recession Period

U.S. Home Median Sales Price
Quarterly, 1992-2021* 
Source: NAHB/Wells Fargo
Recession Period
*Through Q2 2021
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
1992 Q1
1993 Q1
1994 Q1
1995 Q1
1996 Q1
1997 Q1
1998 Q1
1999 Q1
2000 Q1
2001 Q1
2002 Q1
2003 Q1
2004 Q1
2005 Q1
2006 Q1
2007 Q1
2008 Q1
2009 Q1
2010 Q1
2011 Q1
2012 Q1
2013 Q1
2014 Q1
2015 Q1
2016 Q1
2017 Q1
2018 Q1
2019 Q1
2020 Q1
2021 Q1
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com

ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
U.S. Retail Sales: New Car Dealers
Non-Seasonally Adjusted; Millions of Dollars; Monthly, 1992-2021*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 
Recession Period
*Through June 2021

ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
U.S. vs Arizona Job Recovery
Seasonally Adjusted; Monthly Employment Percent Change Since Peak Levels (Jan 08’/Feb 20’)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-16.0%
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
1
3
5
7
9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97
U.S. - 2020
U.S. - 2008
AZ - 2020
AZ - 2008

Basic Math Will Dominate Rankings
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com

U.S. Population Growth by State - 2019
State Ranking
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 
Rank
%
State
Rank
%
State
1
2.11%
Idaho
11
1.03%
Georgia
2
1.98%
Nevada
12
1.00%
Delaware
3
1.78%
Arizona
13
0.88%
South Dakota
4
1.53%
Utah
14
0.78%
Montana
5
1.30%
South Carolina
15
0.78%
Orgeon
6
1.27%
Texas
16
0.77%
Tennessee
7
1.16%
Washington
17
0.56%
Minnesota
8
1.12%
Florida
18
0.54%
Virginia
9
1.08%
Colorado
19
0.49%
Indiana
10
1.06%
North Carolina
20
0.48%
North Dakota
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com

U.S. Population Growth by State - 2020
State Ranking
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 
Rank
%
State
Rank
%
State
1
2.12%
Idaho
11
0.95%
North Carolina
2
1.78%
Arizona
12
0.85%
Colorado
3
1.54%
Nevada
13
0.83%
Tennessee
4
1.45%
Utah
14
0.77%
Georgia
5
1.29%
Texas
15
0.63%
South Dakota
6
1.17%
South Carolina
16
0.60%
Oregon
7
1.12%
Florida
17
0.51%
Oklahoma
8
1.05%
Washington
18
0.40%
New Hampshire
9
1.04%
Delaware
19
0.40%
Virginia
10
0.98%
Montana
20
0.38%
Wyoming
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com

U.S. Job Growth by State - 2019 
State Ranking
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank
%
State
Rank
%
State
1
2.98%
Arizona
11
1.81%
Tennessee
2
2.93%
Idaho
12
1.68%
New Mexico
3
2.75%
Nevada
13
1.63%
Oregon
4
2.74%
Utah
14
1.63%
South Carolina
5
2.32%
Texas
15
1.57%
Wyoming
6
2.30%
Colorado
16
1.50%
California
7
2.09%
Florida
17
1.48%
Alabama
8
1.98%
Washington
18
1.40%
Massachusetts
9
1.97%
North Carolina
19
1.20%
Montana
10
1.86%
Georgia
20
1.18%
Virginia
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com

U.S. Job Growth by State - 2020
State Ranking
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank
%
State
Rank
%
State
1
-0.66%
Idaho
11
-4.31%
Mississippi
2
-1.63%
Utah
12
-4.34%
North Carolina
3
-3.00%
Arkansas
13
-4.59%
Kansas
4
-3.10%
Montana
14
-4.62%
Georgia
5
-3.14%
Arizona
15
-4.82%
Missouri
6
-3.43%
South Dakota
16
-4.91%
Oklahoma
7
-3.66%
Nebraska
17
-4.99%
Virginia
8
-3.98%
Tennessee
18
-5.04%
South Carolina
9
-4.27%
Alabama
19
-5.10%
Iowa
10
-4.28%
Texas
20
-5.22%
Colorado
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com

U.S. Job Growth by State - 2021 
State Ranking, Year-To-Date*
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank
%
State
Rank
%
State
1
5.15%
Idaho
11
2.27%
South Carolina
2
4.59%
Utah
12
2.22%
Indiana
3
2.95%
Montana
13
2.19%
Rhode Island
4
2.92%
South Dakota
14
2.19%
Mississippi
5
2.83%
New Hampshire
15
2.05%
Georgia
6
2.81%
Maine
16
2.04%
Maryland
7
2.80%
Michigan
17
2.04%
Arizona
8
2.56%
North Carolina
18
2.00%
Texas
9
2.49%
Nevada
19
1.96%
Alabama
10
2.39%
Tennessee
20
1.94%
Arkansas
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
*Through July 2021
?

U.S. COVID Recession Smallest Employment Loss Rankings 
State Ranking, Peak-To-Trough
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank
%
State
Rank
%
State
1
-8.9%
Utah
11
-11.4%
Iowa
2
-9.4%
Nebraska
12
-11.7%
Virginia 
3
-9.5%
Wyoming
13
-11.8%
Washington
4
-9.9%
Arkansas
14
-11.9%
Alabama
5
-9.9%
Oklahoma
15
-12.0%
Tennessee
6
-10.0%
South Dakota
16
-12.3%
New Mexico
7
-10.3%
Idaho
17
-12.3%
Missouri
8
-11.1%
Arizona
18
-12.4%
North Dakota
9
-11.2%
Texas
19
-12.4%
North Carolina
10
-11.2%
Kansas
20
-12.9%
Montana
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com

U.S. COVID Recession Employment Recovery Rankings 
State Ranking, Trough-To-Current*
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank
%
State
Rank
%
State
1
121.9%
Idaho 
11
77.4%
Georgia 
2
118.4%
Utah 
12
77.2%
Colorado 
3
93.7%
Arizona 
13
76.8%
Alabama 
4
87.4%
Montana 
14
76.5%
Indiana 
5
84.5%
Tennessee 
15
76.4%
Texas 
6
84.5%
South Dakota 
16
75.1%
Florida 
7
82.5%
Mississippi 
17
74.4%
South Carolina 
8
82.1%
Arkansas 
18
74.2%
Maine 
9
78.9%
North Carolina 
19
74.1%
New Hampshire 
10
77.7%
Nebraska 
20
73.9%
Missouri 
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
*Through July 2021
MC = 2nd

Arizona COVID Job Recovery by Industry
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
*Through July 2021
Arizona Job Recovery (in thousands)
Sector
Lost Jobs
Percent
Lost
Jobs 
Recovered
Percent 
Recovered
Average 
Wage
Total Nonfarm
-331.5
-11.1%
310.6
93.7%
$58,400
Mining
-0.2
-1.6%
0.0
0.0%
$55,300
Construction
-6.6
-3.7%
5.4
81.8%
$63,000
Manufacturing
-6.3
-3.5%
5.7
90.5%
$82,400
Wholesale Trade
-4.6
-4.6%
7.3
158.7%
$57,000
Retail Trade
-37.8
-11.5%
42.6
112.7%
$33,400
Transp., Warehousing, & Utilities
-3.4
-2.7%
25.6
752.9%
$45,700
Information
-6.4
-12.9%
1.8
28.1%
$90,900
Financial Activities
-4.6
-2.0%
6.5
141.3%
$83,000
Professional & Business Services
-37.9
-8.4%
37.2
98.2%
$63,152
Educational & Health Services
-46.8
-9.8%
43.1
92.1%
$56,200
Leisure & Hospitality
-146.6
-43.3%
119.5
81.5%
$26,800
Other Services
-20.4
-21.5%
20.1
98.5%
$43,500
Government
-9.9
-2.3%
-4.2
-42.4%
$56,400

Arizona Employment – Percent Change by Wage Group
Non-Seasonally Adjusted; Change from January 2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Less than $40K
$40K - $60K
$60K - $80K
$80K - $100K
Over $100K
www.roundsconsulting.com

Arizona Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted; Monthly, 1985 - 2021*
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Recession Period
*Through July 2021
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
Jan-85
Jan-87
Jan-89
Jan-91
Jan-93
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-99
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-17
Jan-19
Jan-21
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com

Arizona, Greater Phoenix, and U.S. Job Growth
Annual Percent Growth 1985 - 2021*
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; AZ Office of Economic Opportunity
Recession Period
*Through January 2021
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Arizona
Greater Phoenix
U.S.
BETTER
BETTER
BETTER
WORSE
BETTER
BETTER

Arizona COVID-19 Recession Job Losses 
Seasonally Adjusted; Peak-To-Trough
Source: Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity
-150,000
-130,000
-110,000
-90,000
-70,000
-50,000
-30,000
-10,000
10,000
Leisure and Hospitality
Educational and Health Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Professional and Business Services
Other Services
Government
Manufacturing
Information
Construction
Financial Activities
Natural Resources and Mining
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com

Arizona COVID-19 Recession Job Recoveries
Seasonally Adjusted; Trough-To-Current
Source: Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Natural Resources & Mining
Information
Construction
Government
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Other Services
Professional & Business Services
Retail Trade
Educational & Health Services
Transp., Warehousing, & Utilities
Leisure & Hospitality
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
*Through July 2021

Example: Per Capita Personal Income
Maricopa County as a Percent of U.S.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
105.0%
110.0%
115.0%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
*Through 2019 (latest available data)
Recession Period

Arizona Employment by County
Non-Seasonally Adjusted; COVID-19 Recession Job Losses, Peak-To-Trough 
Source: Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
Rank
County
% Lost
Net Lost
1
Gila
-5.4%
-775
2
Cochise
-6.3%
-2,200
3
Navajo
-6.9%
-1,825
4
Greenlee
-10.4%
-550
5
Mohave
-10.8%
-5,700
6
Graham
-11.1%
-1,075
7
Pima
-11.1%
-44,300
8
Maricopa
-11.4%
-246,400
9
Pinal
-12.1%
-7,800
10
La Paz
-12.6%
-725
11
Yavapai
-12.7%
-8,400
12
Apache
-13.4%
-2,450
13
Yuma
-14.0%
-8,500
14
Coconino
-16.0%
-10,800
15
Santa Cruz
-17.3%
-2,375

$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Maricopa County Median Price of Homes Sold
2002-2021* 
Source: ARMLS
Recession Period
*Through June 2021
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com

Maricopa County Single Family Home Permits
Annually, 1990-2020
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Recession Period

Maricopa County Housing Unit Occupancy Characteristics
Annually, 2010-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
66.3%
65.2%
63.8%
62.5%
61.3%
60.7%
60.4%
61.0%
61.4%
62.2%
33.7%
34.8%
36.2%
37.5%
38.7%
39.3%
39.6%
39.0%
38.6%
37.8%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Owner Occupied
Renter Occupied
?

- Tax Rates
- Econ Development Programs
- Workforce (quality/avail/cost)
- Transportation Infrastructure
- Marketing
- Responsible Regulations
- Balanced Budget
- Water
- Many Others…
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
What Matters in Growing the Economy?

Finding the Right Balance – ROI/Choices
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com

- Labor quality falls behind competitors,
- Labor shortages continue,
- Grow in volume but not quality,
- Economic downturn/business cycle,
- Budget issues arise,
- Short term budget eval vs long term,
- Stagnant higher ed achievement,
- Etc.
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
Risk of not being aggressive?

AZ and MC are resilient, but we could be better…
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
AZ is still a solid bet, national top 5.
MC will continue to lead.
But incomes need to rise.
Public policy matters; how do we respond?
Full job recovery by end of 2021.
2022?

How does all this impact revenues?
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
• Major forecasting issue: How much of the current MC revenue base is 
artificially propped up with the federal stimulus spending?
• How will shifting from a direct payment stimulus package to one more 
focused on infrastructure impact MC?
• For context: State level “base” revenue is likely overstated by $500M, 
meaning that much in the annual revenue forecast going forward will 
disappear within two years.

Other Issues ?
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
• Revenue forecasts currently have a much higher degree if risk. If you want 
to maintain the current levels of confidence in the numbers, the forecasts 
may need to remain conservative...for a bit longer.
• However, the greatest risk will be in the state’s income tax categories, as 
opposed to sales and VLT.
• Volatility will still exist though.

September Revenue Forecast
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
FY  2021 
Actual 
FY 2022 Budget
FY 2022 Forecast
Conservative
State-Shared Sales
$727.6 M
$676.3 M
$749.4 M
% Change from FY 2021
3.0%
State-Shared VLT
$197.0 M
$183.6 M
$201.3 M
% Change from FY 2021
2.2%
Jail Excise
$210.5 M
$196.6 M
$216.6 M
% Change from FY 2021
2.9%

Questions?
ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com

ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP
www.roundsconsulting.com
Connect with us:
www.roundsconsulting.com
@roundsconsult
@roundsconsulting