2026-27 CITY OF TEMPE SOTM PRESENTATION TO RMTB 04-22-26 FINAL.PDF
City of Tempe — Risk Management Trust Board Meeting (2026-04-22)
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City of Tempe, AZ State of the Market 2026-27 Public Entity Insurance Marketplace, Trends, Industry Issues and Outlook Alliant Insurance Services www.alliant.com Presented by: Shawn Kraatz, Senior Vice President Pamela Dominguez, First Vice President April 22, 2026 Presentation to RMTB (THIS INFORMATION HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATED FROM VARIOUS INDUSTRY SOURCES) Market Conditions Impactful issues for insureds 2 Two consecutive years of Insurer profitability – driven by increased rates rather than reduced loss activity • 2023 totaled $108b in Global Insured CAT losses, US responsible for 80% • 2025 marks the 6th consecutive year global losses >$100b • Through Q3 2025, $105b insured losses globally (lowest since 2019, 2015-2024 average $114b) 02 The first 3 quarters of 2025 resulted in $90b in insured losses in the US, accounting for 86% of global insured losses. Palisades and Eaton Fire in CA were responsible for $40b of these insured losses. 2025 marked the 3rd consecutive year US SCS insured losses through Q3 exceeded $40b. 03 Property capacity: • Return to stability from incumbents • Coastal, Earthquake and wildfire capacity continue to come under greater scrutiny • Targeted growth from new and incumbent markets alike 01 Property Consistent increases in attritional property losses (fires, water damage, tornados, hail, wildfires). 7 consecutive years where Secondary perils have surpassed Primary. Are secondary perils ‘secondary’ anymore? 04 The threat of tariffs have brought inflation concerns back to the forefront of the property insurance community’s minds 05 Reduced liability capacity and withdrawals have been significant over the past two years 01 Liability Social inflation & Litigation Financing driving up liability verdicts and settlements 02 Excess Workers Compensation remains stable, but retained layer may be experiencing increased claims volume 03 01 Cyber capacity has improved and creating stabilized terms and conditions Cyber Ransomware cyber losses are systemic – Expecting $10 Trillion by 2025 02 Market Trends By Product Line 3 Product Line Pricing Capacity Retentions Coverage PROPERTY Challenged Exposures Non-Challenged Exposures Standalone Earthquake Builder's Risk CASUALTY General Liability Automobile Liability Workers’ Compensation Umbrella Liability Excess Liability Pollution Liability* MANAGEMENT & PROFESSIONAL Cyber Employment Practice Liability Fiduciary Fidelity/Crime *Denotes Site Specific Pollution Color Key As a buyer, is that movement positive, neutral, or something that could present a challenge during my renewal? Positive change Neutral/No change Potential Challenge Arrow Key What direction are pricing, capacity, limits, deductibles and coverage moving? Decreasing Increasing Stabilizing/No change 4 Capacity • The first half of 2025 has been characterized by one of the most rapid improvements of market conditions for Insureds in decades. Early indications through the first part of Q1 were for a stable, yet soft market which favored buyers. Capacity supply has far exceeded demand, resulting in carriers struggling to secure placements and retain existing business. As the year progressed, many carriers — driven by ambitious growth targets for 2025 — responded with increasingly aggressive underwriting tactics. Shared and layered programs are frequently seeing subscription levels above 150%, which is putting downward pressure on rates as brokers work to optimize renewal outcomes. • The year began with historic wildfires in California, and the frequency and severity of severe convective storm (SCS) losses have continued their upward trend. By midyear, insured losses have already surpassed $60B — even before the start of hurricane season. While challenging geographies such as California, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas, along with loss- impacted programs, may continue to face minor headwinds, the market currently offers ample capacity to navigate these difficulties Coverage • For most programs, coverage remains relatively static. Insureds with non-concurrencies and/or lower sublimits for minor coverages are able to improve these limits, even if only slightly, due to the increased competition that has ensued from new markets, as well as existing capacity that may be trying to stay competitive or expand on a program. For Insureds seeking to enhance specific, major areas of their programs, those options are generally available; however, they may require accepting lesser rate reductions than those applied to programs renewing strictly on a “per expiring” basis. • The underwriting emphasis on valuations is here to stay. Insurers now expect insureds to present a proactive valuation philosophy and narrative. Ideally, this includes a formal process — preferably supported by a third-party appraisal firm — that ensures values are regularly and appropriately updated. At a minimum, property values should be trended to reflect ongoing inflationary pressures and align with relevant regional cost indices, particularly those related to increased costs associated with rebuilding. • Ongoing uncertainty in global trade relations has further heightened carrier sensitivity to construction cost volatility. In the absence of a compelling valuation narrative or adequate supporting data, underwriters are continuing to rely on provisions such as Occurrence Limit of Liability (OLLE) or Margin Clauses. Additionally, programs without credible valuation approaches may see reduced competition from new markets. Retentions • Overall, Insureds that have addressed their retentions and deductibles since the onset of the increased inflationary environment (2020) should experience minimal pressure on retention levels. However, we are not yet in a market environment where reduced retentions are provided without strong justification. Any consideration for a reduction typically requires compelling, data-driven support — or may come at the expense of reduced premium credits. Pricing • Two consecutive years of profitability for the D&F markets has allowed for increased competition, as carriers pursue both organic and inorganic growth. Pricing and rate outcomes will continue to depend on a range of factors, including individual risk profile, loss history, industry class, the carriers’ view of rate adequacy, and any improvements implemented at the account level. Programs that performed well during the hard market phase may begin negotiations from a lower pricing baseline and, as a result, may experience less downward movement at renewal. Nonetheless, 2025 looks to be the most favorable pricing environment for loss-free, well-organized buyers in more than 7 years. CAT Property with Poor Loss History or Risk Quality: -5% to 5% CAT Property with Good Loss History or Risk Quality: -20% to -10% Non-CAT Property with Poor Loss History or Risk Quality: -5% to 5% Non-CAT Property with Good Loss History or Risk Quality: -15% to -5% Property (As of Q2 2025) Casualty (As of Q2 2025) Rate Trends “Low End” “High End” General Liability 3% 10% Automobile Liability 5% 30% Workers’ Compensation -5% 5% Umbrella Liability 5% 25% Excess Liability 5% 25% Pollution Liability (Site Liability) Flat 10% Capacity Coverage Retentions Pricing Capacity is readily available for less complex risks and new insurer capacity continues to enter the market. Underwriting remains disciplined, with capacity still constrained for difficult risks. Some insurers have pulled out of certain classes of business and market sizes all together. Auto liability capacity continues to be limited due to rising claim frequency & severity, and an uptick in Hired and Non-owned losses. PFOS and PFAS exclusions are generally non- negotiable. Biometric data collection related underwriting questions and exclusions are increasing at a rapid pace due to tort law concerns. Seeing increased use of Abuse & Molestation, Assault & Battery, Wildfire and Traumatic Brain Injury exclusions. Emerging concerns regarding reliance on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its implications. ESG/climate risk concerns continue to be on the rise. Pressure remains on retentions. Attachment points should be analyzed and adjusted depending on risk appetite, with data, analytics and modeling tools utilized to make informed decisions. Alternative solutions, such as corridor deductibles and buffer layers, are becoming more common. Auto repair costs (labor, parts and materials) keep rising, as does attorney representation in auto losses, and are contributing factors to the continued distressed auto market and continued significant rate increases. Workers Compensation remains the most consistent profit generator for insurers. Legal system abuse (social inflation) and third-party litigation funding (TPLF) are driving an increase in the frequency of severity losses. State and federal lawmakers need to be more aggressive in tackling these abuses which are producing runaway jury verdicts and negatively impacting insureds. 5 6 P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2025F* *Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers 2008–2025F. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO (2001-2023). S&P Global Intelligence (2024). 115.8 107.5 100.1 98.4 100.8 92.6 95.7 101.0 99.3 101.1 106.5 102.5 96.4 97.0 97.8 100.7 104.0 99.6 99.2 98.8 100.0 103.1 101.6 96.5 98.5 90 100 110 120 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25F As Recently as 2001, Insurers Paid Out Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in Earned Premiums Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net Losses Relatively Low CAT Losses, Reserve Releases Higher CAT Losses, Shrinking Reserve Releases, Toll of Soft Market Lower CAT Losses Sharply higher CATs are driving large underwriting losses and pricing pressure COVID-19 has had no discernable net impact on the combined ratio in 2020 Best Combined Ratio Since 1949 (87.6) Sandy Impacts Ian & Inflation Impacts 2024 96.5 Avg. CAT Losses, More Reserve Releases 2024 was the best underwriting performance since 2013 2022-2023 were the industry’s worst underwriting performances since 2017 7 Major U.S Losses in 2025 • Through June of 2025, there have been 14 confirmed weather/climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each that affected United States. • These events included: • 12 severe storm events • 1 wildfire event • 1 hail event • Several potential billion-dollar events from 2025 are still being assessed: • Early-May: Southeastern and Southern severe storms and flooding • Early-July: Central Texas flash flooding • Mid-July: Central and Eastern severe storms • Mid-August: North Central severe storms and flooding Source: Climate Central https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters 8 Trend and Valuation │ Construction Inflation & Claims Accurate insurable values ensure policyholders can recover fully from losses, covering repairs or replacements without unexpected costs, regardless of market conditions. Maintaining accurate insurable values support market stability and reliability. It builds trust between insurers and policyholders, promoting a transparent and healthy insurance environment. Market Trust Proper Compensation July 2025 Construction Cost Trends 3.0% 1.0% 2.6% 1.0% ENR – Building Cost Index FM – Composite July – July MSB – Average of all Construction BLS: Construction Cost 01 02 Rising construction costs, driven by supply chain disruptions, inflation, and labor shortages, are creating volatility in material prices and elevating expenses. Insurers are struggling to estimate replacement costs accurately, prompting premium increases, stricter underwriting, and heightened renewal scrutiny. Property owners and risk managers must proactively update property valuations to maintain adequate coverage in this shifting insurance environment. 03 WWW.cbiz.com/valuation Even with a stabilizing property insurance market and more favorable conditions for buyers, accurate insurable values remain critically important for several reasons: In a buyer-friendly market, accurate insurable values provide leverage in negotiations, allowing policyholders to secure fair premiums and comprehensive coverage based on precise valuations. Negotiation Leverage Avoiding Penalties Casualty Market Drivers 9 General Liability & Excess Liability Increase in Catastrophic Losses • Sexual Misconduct • Law Enforcement Liability • Lifetime Care Costs • Punitive Damage Awards Organized Plaintiff Bar • Litigation Financing • Settlement pressure driven by Nuclear Verdict Potential Inflationary Pressures • Social Inflation Auto Liability Cost of vehicles (inflation) Workers Compensation Cost to repair (technology) Fatality Trends Distractive Driving – Cell Phones Robotaxis Rising medical costs Rapid rise of litigation costs Use of Autonomous Driving Increased fleet use of Electric Vehicles Aging Workforce Medical Cost Inflation Cancer & PTSD Presumptions Workplace Violence Medical Service Delays Out of State Exposure Accident Survivability Mental Health Aging Infrastructure Lack of market participation Social Inflation: Legal System Abuse 10 Source: Marathon Strategies: Corporate Verdicts Go Thermonuclear 2025 Edition Insurance claim costs Increasing Propensity to Sue Size of Jury Awards Aggressive Plaintiff Bar Ads Litigation Financing Growing Distrust of Large Corps. Changes in Regulatory and Legal Environment Courts/Juries Favoring Plaintiffs Number of reported thermonuclear verdicts over $100 million increased to 49 in 2024 Nuclear verdicts 2024 135 Number of nuclear verdicts that surpassed $10M, a 52% increase over 2023 $31.1 billion Total sum of nuclear verdicts $51 million Median nuclear verdict Number of corporate thermonuclear verdicts ($100M+): 2009-2024 11 Sedgwick: Liability litigation observations and trends Summer 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Number of corporate thermonuclear verdicts ($100M+): 2009-2024 Factors Driving Up Values 12 Anchoring • Arbitrary numbers • Lump sum or per diem • The more you ask for, the more you get • 1/3 of states limit anchoring in some way Reptile Theory • Use juror anger to instill a sense of fear or danger in jurors’ minds so they lash out at the perceived attackers (i.e. the Defendants) • Use safety rules to divert the jurors’ attention away from the real legal standard And… • Law Firm Advertising • The Plaintiff’s Bar • Third Party Litigation Funding • Legislative changes • Increasingly negative sentiment towards perceived bad actors or institutions Contributing Factor to High Tort Payouts: TPLF 13 Gen Re: Who’s Really Behind That Lawsuit? – Claims Handling Challenges From Third-Party Litigation Funding https://www.genre.com/us/knowledge/publications/2025/august/claims- handling-challenges-from-third-party-litigation-funding-en Increasing the volume of litigation External capital through TPLF has enabled law firms – including small law firms – to expand plaintiff recruitment efforts through increased advertising 01 Increasing settlement values Plaintiffs are seeking greater recoveries to satisfy their obligations to the funder. Because the rates of repayment are so high, plaintiffs are rejecting fair settlement offers to seek extra money to make up the amount they must repay 02 Increasing litigation costs Since plaintiffs are receiving money up front, they have little incentive to settle a case early and reasonably, which will lead to longer and costlier litigation. Businesses and insurance carriers will have to decide whether they are willing to pay more early on to resolve a case or pay the extra costs and expenses to litigate 03 Increasing frivolous claims TPLF may incentivize plaintiffs to pursue frivolous lawsuits, especially in cases where the potential payout is very large, such as cases involving Commercial Auto and Umbrella policies 04 Increasing premiums The increased cost of TPLF is being passed down to the policyholder, resulting in higher insurance premiums. TPLF pushing up settlement and verdict size has had the greatest effects on premiums. In the first quarter of 2025, Commercial Auto and Umbrella had the highest average increases in premiums out of all lines of 10.4% and 9.5%, respectively 05 Third-Party Litigation Funding Third-Party Litigation Funding – Court Progress* 14 *As TPLF regulation progresses at state level, US House of Reps is advancing HR 1109 – The Litigation Transparency Act of 2025, which would regulate TPLF in federal court cases. Over 315 signatories of the April 2025 Coalition Letter to the USHR included supporting insurers, chambers of commerce, public and private companies. Introduced but did not pass both houses. Gen Re: Who’s Really Behind That Lawsuit? – Claims Handling Challenges From Third-Party Litigation Funding https://www.genre.com/us/knowledge/publications/2025/august/claims-handling-challenges-from-third-party-litigation-funding-en Third-Party Litigation Funding States where TPLF is Discoverable West Virginia 06 Wisconsin 07 Georgia 01 Indiana 02 Kansas 03 Louisiana 04 Montana 05 States where TPLF Bills are Pending Arizona 01 California 02 Colorado 03 Delaware 04 Florida 05 Illinois 06 Iowa 07 Kentucky 08 Maryland 09 Massachusetts 10 Missouri 11 Nevada 12 New Hampshire 13 New Jersey 14 North Carolina 15 Ohio 16 Oklahoma 17 Rhode Island 18 15 Auto Liability $30M $30M $25M $24M $36M $52M $24M $89M $29M $28M $30M $35M $98M $117M $54M $80M $0M $20M $40M $60M $80M $100M $120M 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Average Amount (FY) Narrower Spread Wider Spread Source: Zywave Casualty Data NOTES: Analysis considers US only Automobile Liability cases with recorded settlement or award value greater than $15M Dollar amounts are unadjusted for inflation and economic trends Large claims are getting larger. 01 Large claims are becoming less predictable. 02 Insurance carriers prefer predictable risks. 03 Instability leads to higher premiums. 04 Automobile Liability Large Case Average Settlement Amount by Disposition Year Artificial Intelligence: Impact to Public Entity Risks 16 As Artificial Intelligence makes its way into governance Key Risk Exposures for Agencies Civil rights & due process Potential bias in policing, benefits, hiring, housing decisions Decision errors Hallucinations, automation mistakes → liability, action reversals Data & IP Training-data ownership, copyright claims, public records obligations Cybersecurity Prompt injection, data leakage, model theft Procurement/vendor risk Third-party AI tools expose agencies to contractual and liability gaps Artificial Intelligence: Impact to Public Entity Risks 17 As Artificial Intelligence makes its way into governance • Cyber: Tighter underwriting, AI-related exclusions or sublimits • E&O/Public Officials: Errors from AI-driven decisions may be contested • Media/IP: Generated content can result in copyright & trademark claims • EPL/Civil Rights: Bias in hiring/benefits decisions could result in discrimination claims • Map AI inventory (supports underwriting) • Align with NIST RMF for governance & testing: https://csrc.nist.gov/projects/risk-management/about-rmf • Run rights & safety impact reviews; keep human-in-loop • Strengthen vendor contracts (data, bias, indemnity) • Tune coverage: Confirm no broad AI exclusions • Resource for Public Entities: https://www.sanjoseca.gov/your-government/departments- offices/information-technology/ai-reviews-algorithm- register/govai-coalition Insurance impacts What agencies can do Worker’s Compensation 18 Accident frequency has been steady or slightly down The “relatively” stable line of coverage in recent years However, severity continues to trend upward and there are some disturbing trends to keep an eye on Hardening Market? Worker’s Compensation Trends/Outlook Trends to Watch 19 Rising medical costs for catastrophic claims: • Accident survivability • Increased life expectancy for catastrophically injured workers • Higher costs for medical care technology • 30% increase in claims incurred over $10M in last 3 years 01 Enhanced care with AI tools 02 Inflation, tariffs and stress on our medical system 03 The risk and needs of an aging workforce 04 Legal claim costs 05 Uptick in cumulative trauma claims 06 Mental health claims 07 Return to office 08 The cyber market has started to stabilize in terms of large premium swings. Public Entities with improved hygiene and no losses, may see flat to minimal increases. The uptick in demand for coverage has helped to stabilize pricing across the industry, as smaller risks are seeing the need to implement. The cyberthreat landscape continues to be volatile and complex. Larger risks are seeing increase in Ransomware demands and an increase in incidents. Healthcare and financial services continue to incur higher claim costs due to the data they handle and regulatory guidelines they are forced to comply with. Cyber insurance should be viewed as a tool that complements a robust cybersecurity posture, and not a replacement for security measures. Cyber insurance is projected to grow rapidly over the next decade, driven by increasing digitization of the global economy and rising concerns about cyber risk. State of the Cyber Insurance Market 20 Current State of Cyber Claims Ransomware Payments Payments made by victims to ransomware groups totaled $814M in 2024, down 35% from the record-high of $1.25B in 2023. (3) This is the first time ransom payments have declined since 2022. (1) NetDiligence Cyber Claims Study 2024 Report (2) Chainalysis cryptocurrency tracking data (3) IBM Cost of a Data Breach 2024 (4) Duane Morris Class Action Review 2025 As measured by the number of claims over the past 5 years, the financial services sector is among the top 5 most affected industries, which as a group account for 52% of all claims and 59% of total incident cost. (1) Ransomware and Business Email Compromise are the leading causes of loss. (1) The US has the highest average cost of a data breach of any country at $9.36M. (3) However, the percentage of attack victims paying a ransom has declined over the past five years as business are relying more on restoration, backups and remediation strategies. Data breach class actions are at record levels. There were 1,488 data breach class action filings in 2024, up from 1,320 in 2023 and more than double the amount in 2022. (4) The number of filings has risen by 1,265% over the last 6 years. 21 22 Data Integrity (SOV, COPE, Insurance-to-Value) • Must go to market with a compelling narrative • Emphasis on data quality here to stay 2026 outcomes will be highly dependent on remainder of 2025 Wind Season and individual client losses Retentions and caps on certain types of exposure • Programs that have not undergone changes over the course of the last few renewal cycles may face scrutiny on deductible if there have been frequency issues • Separate, increased Water Damage deductibles are gaining momentum • ACV on older roofs • Several new markets ‘open for business’ for Property deals • Growth is an emphasis for nearly all carriers Underwriter submission activity remains high – imperative to engage early and access global market Property Outlook: Tier 1/CAT Exposed/Loss Driven • Nearly all programs seeing massive oversubscription due to combination of new markets and incumbents looking to grow • Excess limits available for Insureds looking for pre-2023 program limits • Insureds whose exposures fall into this “tier,” should expect to see rate outcomes highly dependent upon individual loss experience and risk quality • Loss-impacted portfolios in difficult geographies (California, Florida, Louisiana and Texas) may see slightly less favorable outcomes than loss-free peers • Markets view rates as more attractive on CAT Exposed risks, with carriers willing to entertain new business as long as it hits internal metrics and has appropriate deductible structures in place and good risk quality • No anticipated changes for customary percentage deductibles for Named Wind Property Outlook: Non-CAT with Favorable Loss Experience • As a function of the market as a whole and the capacity that will be available for the 2026 renewal cycle, we anticipate a continually improved environment for buyers, potentially to a lesser degree than we saw in 2025 • Challenged occupancies aside, capacity on Non-Cat business with favorable loss experience will continue to be available, which in turn should promote competition leading to lower pricing/rate relief • Non-Cat accounts will continue to be faced with the same ITV challenges facing CAT exposed and loss driven portfolios. Differentiating your philosophy towards risk management will be key (risk control, valuations, etc.) Property Renewal Outlook Liability Outlook Excess liability continues to face upward pressure 23 • Aggregate limits – Many carriers are looking to cap their exposure on pool programs • Attachment point/Retentions are being closely examined • Changing capacity – Incumbent reductions & new entrants • Underwriter scrutiny on Law Enforcement and Sexual Abuse/Misconduct coverages • Emerging Exclusions: Is AI next? Specific Problem areas that continue to persist Insurers reporting YOY loss cost increases from the high single digits to 15%+. Pricing will be based on losses and jurisdiction. Additional Considerations • Best in class risks continue to differentiate themselves with markets • Data is king • Risk management & risk control • Alternative Risk/Structured Solutions Workers Compensation Outlook & Leading Concerns Law Enforcement Workers’ Compensation Claims are Skyrocketing • The leading factors giving rise to more workers’ compensation claims being filed by law enforcement personnel are: • Post-traumatic stress disorder, both as to severity and frequency; • Increasing law enforcement on-the-job violence UnderwriterConcerns: Per Occurrence exposure to CAT loss; rate adequacy Remote Work: Out of State employees & impact on productivity and compliance Rate Expectations: Account Specific Trends to Watch: • Increase in state legislative bills filed for Presumptive and PTSD benefits • Low unemployment • Payroll increases • Data analytics and AI emerging in claims handling • Increased severity of workplace injuries • Mental health exposures • Medical marijuana • Medical inflation & Prescription Drug Costs • Workplace violence 6 4 Thank you!