Financial Audit Reort

A business of Marsh McLennan 
ANALYSIS OF UNPAID 
LOSSES AND ALAE AS OF 
JUNE 30, 2024 
City of Chandler 
September 12, 2024

Actuarial Analysis 
Contents 
 
 
© Oliver Wyman 
Contents 
1. 
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................... 3 
Purpose and Scope .................................................................................................................................................. 3 
Actuarial Findings .................................................................................................................................................... 4 
Unpaid Losses and ALAE.......................................................................................................................................... 4 
Forecasted Ultimate Losses and ALAE for Future Period ........................................................................................ 4 
Relevant Comments ................................................................................................................................................ 5 
2. 
Background ....................................................................................................................... 6 
3. 
Data .................................................................................................................................. 7 
4. 
Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 8 
Loss Development Methods ................................................................................................................................... 8 
Bornhuetter-Ferguson Methods ............................................................................................................................. 9 
Loss Cost Method .................................................................................................................................................... 9 
Frequency / Severity Method ................................................................................................................................. 9 
Estimated Ultimate Number of Claims ................................................................................................................... 9 
Estimated Ultimate Losses and ALAE at Retained Limits ...................................................................................... 10 
Unpaid Losses and ALAE........................................................................................................................................ 10 
Forecasted Ultimate Losses and ALAE for Future Period ...................................................................................... 10 
Estimates at Various Probability Levels ................................................................................................................ 11 
5. 
Distribution and Use ........................................................................................................ 12 
6. 
Considerations and Limitations ........................................................................................ 13 
7. 
Acknowledgement of Qualifications ................................................................................. 15 
Appendix A. 
Glossary .............................................................................................................. 16 
 
2

Actuarial Analysis 
Executive Summary 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
1. 
Executive Summary 
Purpose and Scope 
Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc. (Oliver Wyman) has been engaged by the City of Chandler (the City) to 
review its retained workers compensation (WC) exposures. The purpose of this analysis is to estimate the City’s 
unpaid losses and allocated loss adjustment expense (ALAE1) as well as claim cost projections.  
It is intended that this analysis will be used by the City of Chandler solely as a guide in its determination of its 
financial statement liabilities related to its self-insured exposures and for forecasting loss costs for budgeting 
purposes. 
The conclusions in this report are related to its stated purpose only and may not be applicable for other purposes. 
Specifically, the scope of services includes the following items: 
• 
Unpaid losses and ALAE as of June 30, 2024 for claims incurred through that same date. 
• 
Projected ultimate losses and ALAE for policy period July 1, 2024-25. 
• 
Estimates of the 70%, 80% and 90% probability levels of the unpaid losses and ALAE as well as the projected 
ultimate losses as of June 30, 2024. 
The estimates as of June 30, 2024 (accounting date) are based on data evaluated as of June 30, 2024 (valuation 
date) and additional information provided to Oliver Wyman through August 9, 2024(review date). 
The estimates are prepared on a nominal (undiscounted) basis, i.e. without considering the time value of money. 
Additionally, estimates are presented as actuarial central estimates. An actuarial central estimate is defined as 
an expected value over the range of reasonably possible, as opposed to all conceivable, outcomes. 
Estimates are also provided at varying probability levels which are either above or below the actuarial central 
estimate. 
Amounts are provided net of non-insurance recoveries (e.g., salvage and subrogation) and are limited to the 
City’s per occurrence retention. All insurance is considered to be valid and fully collectable. 
Unless otherwise stated, all references to losses throughout this report and accompanying exhibits should be 
understood to include ALAE. 
The scope of this project did not include the estimation of any expenses other than ALAE and ULAE that are 
sometimes associated with insurance programs. Such expenses include unallocated loss adjustment expense 
(ULAE), reinsurance premiums, the costs of trustee, legal, administrative, risk management and actuarial services, 
taxes, fees and assessments, and costs for surety bonds or letters of credit pertaining to outstanding liabilities 
or capital requirements. ULAE is the insurance industry term generally used to refer to any claims-handling costs 
that cannot be attributed to individual claims. Fees paid to third party administrators (TPAs) and salaries paid to 
in-house claim adjusters and in-house defense attorneys represent examples of this type of expense. 
 
1 ALAE is an insurance industry term which generally refers to defense, litigation and cost containment amounts 
3

Actuarial Analysis 
Executive Summary 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
This report sets forth the results of Oliver Wyman’s analysis and is accompanied by exhibits which should be 
considered integral parts of this report. 
For limitations on distribution of this report please see the Distribution and Use section of this report. 
Please note that all values in this report are in U.S. currency. 
Actuarial Findings 
Unpaid Losses and ALAE 
Table 1 below summarizes the nominal unpaid losses & ALAE, at the appropriate self-insured retention (SIR) 
levels as of June 30, 2024. Estimates are presented both at an actuarial central estimate and the 70%, 80% and 
90% probability levels. 
Table 1: Estimated Unpaid Losses & ALAE 
 
The estimate of approximately $11.7 million as of June 30, 2024 represents an increase of approximately $603 
thousand since the actuarial analysis performed as of June 30, 2023. This increase is driven by the inclusion of 
policy year 7/1/23 – 6/30/24 (which is at an increased retention level compared to policy period 7/1/21 – 
6/30/22 and prior), partially offset by payments made and decreases in the estimated ultimates for previous 
policy periods driven by better than expected development. Actual incurred loss development over the last 
twelve months across policy years 7/1/22 – 6/30/23 and prior was $205 thousand, significantly less than the 
expected $1.27 million. However, payments made against policy years 7/1/22 – 6/30/23 and prior ($1.12 million) 
were also lower than expected ($1.94 million). 
The increase is further amplified at the higher probability levels, as the increased retention brings additional 
volatility. 
Forecasted Ultimate Losses and ALAE for Future Period 
The nominal losses and ALAE expected to be incurred during policy period 7/1/24 – 6/30/25 by the City, with a 
self-insured retention of $3.0 million for police and fire employees and $1.5 million for all other employees, are 
as shown in Table 2 below. 
Table 2: Projected Ultimate Losses & ALAE 
 
70th
80th
90th
As of June 30, 2024
11,708,406
13,406,125
15,572,180
19,154,952
As of June 30, 2023
11,105,144
11,985,477
13,718,696
16,533,865
Change
603,262
1,420,648
1,853,483
2,621,087
Evaluation
Date
Actuarial
Central
Estimate
Probability Levels
70th
80th
90th
1.5M / 3M
3,042,000
3,486,132
4,079,322
5,077,098
Self-Insured 
Retention
Actuarial
Central
Estimate
Probability Levels
4

Actuarial Analysis 
Executive Summary 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
This forecast is based on Oliver Wyman’s estimated loss costs (losses per unit of exposure) and the City’s 
forecasted exposures of approximately $185 million in payroll. It should be noted that since the projected losses 
and ALAE are directly related to the forecasted exposures, if actual exposures differ from the forecast, the 
projected losses and ALAE should be adjusted accordingly. 
The forecasted ultimate losses of $3.04 million reflects an increase of approximately $157 thousand from the 
forecasted ultimate losses provided in the previous report of $2.89 million. While the projected loss cost has 
decreased since the prior report, from $1.78 per $100 payroll to $1.65 per $100 payroll, the decrease was more 
than offset by an increase in the estimated exposure, from $163 million to $185 million. 
Relevant Comments 
Estimated unpaid losses and ALAE are composed of case reserves and an incurred but not reported (IBNR) 
provision. The case reserves are established by individual claim adjusters on open claims. Case reserves are 
based on the facts of a claim as they are known as of the valuation date; however, the ultimate value of each 
claim will likely differ from the current incurred estimate.  
IBNR is estimated by Oliver Wyman and includes a provision for a) events that have occurred for which claims 
have not been reported; b) future development on known open claims; c) claims that have been reported but 
not yet recorded; and d) claims that have closed but will reopen.  
The fact that the IBNR estimate includes a provision for development on known claims does not necessarily 
imply that there is a problem with the case reserves. Please note that Oliver Wyman’s IBNR estimate is 
appropriate for all historical periods in aggregate but not necessarily for any one particular period. 
Loss and ALAE estimates may be dependent on exposure projections; if actual exposures differ from projected 
amounts, loss and ALAE should be adjusted accordingly. 
5

Actuarial Analysis 
Background 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
2. 
Background 
Founded on May 17, 1912, the City of Chandler is located in the Greater Phoenix Valley of Arizona, located 20 
miles from the Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport.  
The City began self-insuring its Workers’ Compensation exposures on July 1, 2002 and has maintained a self-
insured retention since inception. Prior to that date, the City’s Workers’ Compensation liabilities were covered 
through a guaranteed cost program. 
The City’s self-insured retentions since July 1, 2002 are as displayed below. All self-insured retentions are 
assumed to be on a per occurrence basis and eroded by loss and ALAE. 
 
Police / Fire
All Other
7/1/02-03 to 7/1/11-12
7/1/12-13 to 7/1/14-15
7/1/15-16 to 7/1/17-18
1,000,000
600,000
7/1/18-19 to 7/1/19-20
1,250,000
600,000
7/1/20-21
2,250,000
750,000
7/1/21-22
3,000,000
1,000,000
7/1/22-23 to 7/1/23-24
3,000,000
1,500,000
600,000
Policy Years
Self-Insured Retention
500,000
6

Actuarial Analysis 
Data 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
3. 
Data 
For this study, Oliver Wyman relied upon the following information, provided by the City: 
• 
Historical ground-up and unlimited detailed claims listing for both open and closed claims as of June 30, 
2024 
• 
Historical estimated and audited (where applicable) payrolls by period  
• 
Historical retention limits by period  
Additionally, Oliver Wyman relied on the following information: 
• 
Oliver Wyman’s prior study titled “Actuarial Analysis of Workers’ Compensation Unpaid Losses and ALAE as 
of June 30, 2023” and dated September 13, 2023. 
• 
Industry loss development factors, increased limit factors and benefit level changes from the Annual 
Statistical Bulletin published by the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) 
7

Actuarial Analysis 
Methodology 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
4. 
Methodology 
The estimates in this report are developed in accordance with generally accepted actuarial methodology and 
applicable standards of practice promulgated by the Actuarial Standards Board. Below is a discussion of the 
actuarial methodologies and assumptions underlying the analysis. Projections for the City assume that the 
patterns observed in historical periods will be applicable to future periods.  
Oliver Wyman first selected ultimate losses limited to $75,000, which provides a more stable base for projections 
than the City’s historical SIRs. Oliver Wyman then used the City’s data supplemented with insurance industry 
data to adjust the estimates limited to $75,000 to the actual SIR by policy period. 
To develop the estimates of limited ultimate losses, Oliver Wyman applied the following generally accepted 
actuarial techniques: 
• 
Paid and incurred loss development methods 
• 
Case reserve development method  
• 
Paid and incurred Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods  
• 
Frequency / severity method  
• 
Loss cost method 
The following describes each of these methods in more detail. 
Loss Development Methods 
Loss development methods involve estimating how a cohort of claims will change in value over time. This cohort 
of claims is typically defined as claims which have occurred over a span of time which is usually a full year which 
is referred to as a particular accident year. Oliver Wyman derived loss development patterns based on accident 
year development triangles created from available historical experience for the City, supplemented with 
insurance industry data where appropriate. For example, if an entity’s exposure is small, if there are not enough 
historical periods of data to determine its own patterns, or if the entity’s own patterns are volatile, then 
insurance industry data may be applied. 
Under the paid loss development method, a loss payment pattern is applied directly to the latest evaluation of 
cumulative paid losses by accident year to project ultimate losses. 
Under the incurred loss development method, a loss reporting pattern is applied directly to the latest incurred 
losses (case reserves plus cumulative paid losses) by accident year to project ultimate losses. 
An advantage of the paid loss development method is that its predictive accuracy is independent of case 
reserving practices and philosophies. 
An advantage of the incurred loss development method is that incurred losses provide a larger statistical 
database than paid losses (since case reserves are used in addition to payments) and that incurred losses provide 
more current information (since the establishment of case reserves occurs before payments are made). 
. 
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Actuarial Analysis 
Methodology 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
Bornhuetter-Ferguson Methods 
The Bornhuetter-Ferguson (B-F) method is a blending of the results of the loss development method with an 
a priori expectation of ultimate losses. The a priori expectation of ultimate losses, or preliminary ultimate losses, 
are based on the results of the loss development methods described above and the results of the loss cost 
method (described below) for more recent periods. 
Under the incurred B-F method, the City’s (or industry’s) historical reporting pattern is used to estimate the 
percentage of ultimate losses which are unreported as of the valuation date. This percentage is then multiplied 
by preliminary ultimate losses to produce expected unreported losses. Expected unreported losses are also 
known as IBNR.  
The paid B-F method relies on a mathematical procedure similar to the incurred B-F method. Payment patterns 
are used in place of reporting patterns and unpaid losses are estimated in place of unreported losses. Unpaid 
losses equal case reserves plus IBNR. 
An advantage of the B-F method is that estimates of ultimate losses tend to be more stable than estimates 
produced by the loss development method. This is because estimates based on the B-F method are generally a 
weighted average between the estimate based on the loss development method and the preliminary ultimate 
loss. 
Loss Cost Method 
Under the loss cost method, an ultimate loss cost, or loss amount per exposure unit, is judgmentally selected to 
obtain the ultimate loss estimate. The ultimate loss cost selection is based on the City’s historical loss costs, 
adjusted for inflation and benefit levels. The preliminary estimate of ultimate losses is based on the results of 
the loss development methods described above. 
This method can be useful for estimating ultimate losses for more recent and future periods. The advantages of 
using a loss cost method for the most recent periods are that it accounts for changes in exposure and is less 
affected by changes in claims closing and case reserving practices than the loss development methods. 
Frequency / Severity Method 
Under the frequency / severity method, the ultimate losses for each period are the product of the selected 
ultimate severity (i.e., average cost per claim) multiplied by the estimated ultimate number of claims. The 
preliminary estimate of ultimate losses is based on the results of the loss development methods described above. 
The ultimate severity for the most recent period is judgmentally selected based on the historical limited 
severities, trended to the current period’s cost and benefit level. The ultimate severity for prior periods equals 
the selected current severity, detrended to the appropriate cost and benefit level to derive estimates of ultimate 
losses. 
Estimated Ultimate Number of Claims 
Similar to the paid and incurred loss development factors, reported claim count development factors are 
calculated based on historical claims triangles created from the City’s own experience. The selected count 
development factors are applied to the latest reported counts to determine an estimate of the ultimate number 
of claims. 
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Actuarial Analysis 
Methodology 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
A second estimate of the ultimate number of claims is developed based on a combination of the frequency and 
Bornhuetter-Ferguson methods. The frequency method is used to develop the preliminary estimate. The 
Bornhuetter-Ferguson method uses the preliminary estimate and the reported claim count development pattern 
to determine a second estimate of ultimate claim counts. Oliver Wyman then judgmentally selects the ultimate 
number of claims based on the two estimates. 
Estimated Ultimate Losses and ALAE at Retained Limits 
To develop the estimates of retained ultimate losses, Oliver Wyman applied three generally accepted actuarial 
techniques: the Increased Limit Factor (ILF) Method, the LDF method, and the Excess Method.  
In the ILF Method, Oliver Wyman used the City’s data supplemented with insurance industry data to create ILFs, 
which are ratios of expected losses at different limits to expected losses at the selected limit of $75,000. These 
selected ILFs were multiplied by the $75,000 limited ultimate loss estimates to bring these estimates to the 
actual retention by policy period. This method can be useful for estimating ultimate losses for policy periods that 
are less mature. Typically, this is most useful for more recent or future policy periods and for policy periods with 
a significantly high retention, where actual losses have not yet had time to develop into that layer.  
In the LDF Method, Oliver Wyman used internal data to adjust the selected limited loss development factors to 
reflect the incurred loss development pattern appropriate for the actual retention limit by policy period. These 
LDFs were then applied to the retained incurred losses. This method is useful when it is appropriate to assume 
that historical development patterns are representative of future development patterns, regardless of what has 
been reported so far in a given policy period. 
In the Excess Method, Oliver Wyman used the aforementioned ILFs, LDFs at the $75,000 limit, and LDFs at the 
actual retention limit to calculate an estimate of IBNR excess of the $75,000 limit. This amount was then added 
to the limited ultimate losses and the excess incurred losses to estimate ultimate losses at the actual retention 
limit. This method is a blend of the ILF and LDF methods. 
Unpaid Losses and ALAE 
Unpaid losses and ALAE at retained limits as of June 30, 2024 were calculated by subtracting actual payments as 
of the same date from selected ultimate losses at retained limits. 
Forecasted Ultimate Losses and ALAE for Future Period 
Ultimate losses for the forecasted future period limited to $75,000 per occurrence were selected based on the 
results of two methods, the Loss Cost method and the Frequency / Severity method. The selected ultimate losses 
are then adjusted to additional retentions by the application of selected ILFs. The ILFs were derived as described 
in the “Ultimate Losses and ALAE at Retained Limits” section of this report. The two methods are described 
below. 
Loss Cost Method 
Under the Loss Cost method, ultimate losses for the forecasted future period were estimated by multiplying 
forecasted payroll by a projected loss cost limited to $75,000 per occurrence. The ultimate loss cost selection 
was based on the City’s historical loss costs, adjusted for inflation and benefit levels, as applicable.  
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Actuarial Analysis 
Methodology 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
Frequency / Severity Method 
Under the frequency / severity method, ultimate losses for the forecasted future period are the product of the 
selected ultimate severity (i.e., average cost per claim) multiplied by the estimated ultimate number of claims.  
The ultimate frequency for the forecasted future period was judgmentally selected based on the historical 
frequencies, trended to the forecast period. The selected ultimate frequency was then multiplied by projected 
exposure to arrive at an estimate of estimated number of claims. 
The ultimate severity for the forecasted future period was judgmentally selected based on the historical limited 
severities, trended to the forecast period’s cost and benefit level. 
Estimates at Various Probability Levels 
Oliver Wyman’s approach to estimating probability levels measures the variability or statistical fluctuation 
associated with the self-insurance process itself, i.e., “process risk.” Oliver Wyman has also judgmentally 
introduced a variable for “parameter risk,” which is defined as the additional fluctuation which would result if 
the actual parameter is different from the estimated parameter for the expected number of claims or the 
average claim cost. The methodology does not, however, consider “model risk,” or the risk that the techniques 
used by Oliver Wyman may not be appropriate to the City’s experience. 
The parameters for the model were determined based on Oliver Wyman’s analysis of the claim detail. Specifically, 
Oliver Wyman has assumed loss severity follow a lognormal distribution. The frequency for the distribution was 
estimated based on the number of open and IBNR claims, while the severity was based on the City’s own loss 
experience. 
11

Actuarial Analysis 
Distribution and Use 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
5. 
Distribution and Use 
Usage and Responsibility of Client – Oliver Wyman prepared this report for the sole use of the client named 
herein for the stated purpose. This report includes important considerations, assumptions, and limitations and, 
as a result, is intended to be read and used only as a whole. This report may not be separated into, or distributed, 
in parts other than by the client to whom this report was issued, as needed, in the case of distribution to such 
client’s directors, officers, or employees. All decisions in connection with the implementation or use of advice 
or recommendations contained in this report are the sole responsibility of the client named herein.  
Third Party Reliance and Due Diligence – Oliver Wyman’s consent to any distribution of this report (whether 
herein or in the written agreement pursuant to which we issued this report) to parties other than of the client 
named herein does not constitute advice by Oliver Wyman to any such third parties. Any distribution to third 
parties shall be solely for informational purposes and not for purposes of reliance by any such parties. Oliver 
Wyman assumes no liability related to third party use of this report or any actions taken or decisions made as a 
consequence of the results, advice or recommendations set forth herein. This report should not replace the due 
diligence on behalf of any such third party.  
12

Actuarial Analysis 
Considerations and Limitations 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
6. 
Considerations and Limitations 
Oliver Wyman has prepared this analysis in conformity with its intended utilization by persons technically 
competent in the areas addressed and for the stated purposes only. Judgments as to the conclusions, indications, 
methods, and data contained in this analysis should be made only after studying the analysis in its entirety. 
Furthermore, Oliver Wyman staff is available to explain any matter presented herein. It is assumed that the user 
of the analysis will seek such explanation as to any matter in question. 
Data Verification – For our analysis, we relied on data and information provided by the client named herein 
without independent audit. Though we have reviewed the data for reasonableness and consistency, we have 
not audited or otherwise verified this data. Our review of data may not always reveal imperfections. We have 
assumed that the data provided is both accurate and complete. The results of our analysis are dependent on 
this assumption. If this data or information is inaccurate or incomplete, our findings and conclusions might 
therefore be unreliable. 
Prospective Policy / Accident Period Estimates – We estimated the prospective policy/accident period 
estimates developed in this analysis using estimated loss costs and the projected exposures. Prospective period 
loss and ALAE estimates are directly related to the projected exposures. Therefore, if actual exposures differ 
from the projection, we would need to adjust the prospective policy/accident period estimates accordingly. 
Supplemental Data – Where historical data of the client named herein was either (i) not available, (ii) not 
appropriate or (iii) not sufficiently credible to develop our actuarial assumptions, we supplemented it with 
external information, as we deemed appropriate. Although we believe these external sources may be more 
predictive of future experience of the client named herein than any other data of which we are aware, the use 
of external data adds to the uncertainty associated with our projections. 
Exclusion of Other Program Costs – The scope of the project does not include the estimation of any costs other 
than those described herein. Such ancillary costs may include unallocated loss adjustment expenses (ULAE); 
excess insurance premiums; the costs of trustee, legal, administrative, risk management and actuarial services; 
fees and assessments; and costs for surety bonds or letters of credit pertaining to claim liabilities. 
Assumption of Valid Insurance / Reinsurance – We assumed that all insurance/reinsurance is valid and fully 
collectible. We made no assessment, and do not express any opinion, concerning the viability or collectability of 
any insurance or reinsurance. We have not evaluated the financial strength, claims-paying ability or any other 
factors with regard to the past, current, and prospective insurers/reinsurers of the client named herein. 
Funding of Claim Payments – We have not examined any assets that may be supporting the liabilities, and have 
made no assumptions regarding the maturities and liquidity of these assets, should they exist. This examination 
is beyond the scope of our review.  
Rounding and Accuracy – Our models may retain more digits than those displayed. Also, the results of certain 
calculations may be presented in the exhibits with more or fewer digits than would be considered significant. As 
a result, there may be rounding differences between the results of calculations presented in the exhibits and 
replications of those calculations based on displayed underlying amounts. Also, calculation results may not have 
been adjusted to reflect the precision of the calculation. 
Unanticipated Changes – We developed our conclusions based on an analysis of the data of the client named 
herein and on the estimation of the outcome of many contingent events. We developed our estimates from the 
historical claim experience and covered exposure, with adjustments for anticipated changes. Our estimates 
make no provision for extraordinary future emergence of new types of losses not sufficiently represented in 
13

Actuarial Analysis 
Considerations and Limitations 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
historical databases or which are not yet quantifiable. Also, we assumed that the client named herein will remain 
a going concern, and we have not anticipated any impacts of potential insolvency, bankruptcy, or any similar 
event. 
Internal / External Changes – The sources of uncertainty affecting our estimates are numerous and include 
factors internal and external to the client named herein. Internal factors include items such as changes in claim 
reserving or settlement practices. The most significant external influences include, but are not limited to, 
changes in the legal, social, or regulatory environment surrounding the claims process. Uncontrollable factors 
such as general economic conditions also contribute to the variability. 
Uncertainty Inherent in Projections – While this analysis complies with applicable Actuarial Standards of 
Practice, users of this analysis should recognize that our projections involve estimates of future events and are 
subject to economic and statistical variations from expected values. We have not anticipated any extraordinary 
changes to the legal, social, or economic environment that might affect the frequency or severity of claims. For 
these reasons, we do not guarantee that the emergence of actual losses will correspond to the projections in 
this analysis. 
Probability Levels – We have calculated estimates of the statistical uncertainty associated with the process risk 
inherent in our estimates. However, unless otherwise indicated, our probability level estimates do not address 
parameter or model risk. To the extent that the probability estimates do not address parameter risk or model 
risk, the true variability of results is greater than the range of outcomes presented. The client named herein may 
wish to consider this additional uncertainty in evaluating the estimates presented in this report. 
COVID-19 Pandemic – We have included no explicit adjustments in this report for the effect of the COVID-19 
pandemic on loss experience except as specifically noted in this report.  
14

Actuarial Analysis 
Acknowledgement of Qualifications 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
7. 
Acknowledgement of Qualifications 
I, Adam Hirsch, am a Senior Principal with Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc. I am a Fellow of the Casualty 
Actuarial Society (FCAS), a member of the American Academy of Actuaries (MAAA) and I meet the Qualification 
Standards for Actuaries Issuing Statements of Actuarial Opinion in the United States of the American Academy 
of Actuaries to render the actuarial opinion contained herein. 
I, Brandon Yu, am a Senior Manager with Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc. I am a Fellow of the Casualty 
Actuarial Society (FCAS), a member of the American Academy of Actuaries (MAAA) and I meet the Qualification 
Standards for Actuaries Issuing Statements of Actuarial Opinion in the United States of the American Academy 
of Actuaries to render the actuarial opinion contained herein. 
 
Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.: 
 
 
 
 
Adam Hirsch, FCAS, MAAA 
633 West Fifth Street, Suite 1200 
Los Angeles, CA 90071 
(213) 346-5352 
adam.hirsch@oliverwyman.com 
 
Brandon Yu, FCAS, MAAA 
633 West Fifth Street, Suite 1200 
Los Angeles, CA 90071 
(213) 346-5135 
brandon.yu@oliverwyman.com 
 
15

Actuarial Analysis 
Appendix A 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
Appendix A. Glossary 
Accident Period 
The period in which the event giving rise to a claim occurred, regardless of when the claim is actually reported.  
Accounting Date 
The point in time at which the estimate of unpaid claims and ALAE is evaluated. 
Actuarial Central Estimate 
An estimate that represents an expected value over the range of reasonably possible outcomes. Such range of 
reasonably possible outcomes may not include all conceivable outcomes.  
Allocated Loss Adjustment Expense (ALAE) 
Expense costs associated with the handling and settling of an individual claim that can be directly attributed to 
the particular claim. Fees paid to outside defense attorneys and investigation firms are examples of this expense 
cost.  
Case Reserves 
The unpaid claim estimates established by adjusters on an individual claim basis.  
Claim 
A demand for payment under the coverage provided by a plan or contract. As used throughout this Glossary, it 
also includes suits, potentially compensable events, notifications, and unasserted claims. 
Claim Adjustment Expenses 
The costs of administering, determining coverage for, settling, or defending claims. Claim adjustment expenses 
include allocated claim adjustment expenses and unallocated claim adjustment expenses. 
Claim Frequency 
The number of claims that occur over a period of time per unit of exposure. 
Claim Reporting Pattern 
The rate at which claims are assumed to be reported over time. 
Claim Severity 
The average cost per claim. 
Coefficient of Variation 
A statistical measure of dispersion. The coefficient of variation is calculated as the standard deviation of the 
random process divided by the expected value (mean). 
Confidence Level 
The probability that the outcome of a random process will not exceed an associated estimate. For example, a 
75% confidence level for an unpaid claim estimate of $10 million would indicate that there is a 75% probability 
that the actual claim payments will be less than or equal to $10 million. The estimate is defined in the context 
of the risks modeled in our analysis and may not consider all factors contributing to variability of outcomes. 
Credibility 
A measure of the predictive value of a body of data. 
16

Actuarial Analysis 
Appendix A 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
Development 
The change between valuation dates in the observed values of certain fundamental quantities that may be used 
in the unpaid claim estimation process.  
For example, the number of reported claims associated with events occurring within a particular period will 
change from one valuation date to the next until all claims have been reported. In a similar fashion, the paid 
claim amounts for events occurring within a particular period will change from one valuation date to the next 
until all claims have been reported and closed. The change in the number of reported claims or the change in 
the paid claim amounts is referred to as development. The concept of development also applies to reported 
incurred losses.  
Estimated Ultimate Incurred Losses 
The estimated cost of claims during a period. Ultimate incurred losses represent the total of paid claim amounts, 
case reserves, and IBNR.  
Event 
The incident or activity that triggers potential for claim or allocated claim adjustment expense payment.  
Exposure 
A measure of the underlying potential for claim costs.  
IBNR 
The unpaid claim estimate for: (a) events that have occurred for which claims have not been reported as of the 
accounting date, (b) future development of the case reserves, (c) claims that have been reported but not yet 
recorded in the loss listing, and (d) claims that have been closed but that will be reopened.  
Loss 
The cost associated with a claim. The cost may or may not include loss adjustment expenses. 
Loss Adjustment Expenses 
The costs of administering, determining coverage for, settling, or defending claims. Loss adjustment expenses 
include allocated loss adjustment expenses and unallocated loss adjustment expenses. 
Loss Cost 
The loss amount per exposure unit.  
Method 
The systematic procedure for developing an actuarial estimate. 
Model 
A mathematical or empirical representation of a specified phenomenon. 
Model Risk 
The risk that the methods are not appropriate to the circumstances or the models are not representative of the 
specified phenomenon. 
Paid Losses 
The total aggregate dollar amount paid on all reported claims as of a certain date. 
17

Actuarial Analysis 
Appendix A 
 
  
© Oliver Wyman 
 
Parameter Risk  
The risk that the assumptions or parameters used in the methods or models are not representative of future 
outcomes.  
Payment Pattern 
The rate at which claims are paid over time.  
Process Risk 
The uncertainty associated with the projection of future contingencies that are inherently variable, even when 
the parameters are known with certainty. 
Reported Incurred Loss Amount 
The total of paid claim amounts and case reserves. 
Review Date 
The date through which information is considered in the unpaid claim estimate analysis.  
Risk Margin 
An amount that may be added to the unpaid claim estimate to recognize the uncertainty in the estimate.  
Salvage 
Recoveries due to the sale of damaged or recovered property. 
Subrogation 
Recoveries from a third party responsible for the event for which a claim has already been paid. 
Tail or Unreported Loss Estimate 
The unpaid loss estimate for events that have occurred for which claims have not been reported as of the 
accounting date. 
Unallocated Loss Adjustment Expense (ULAE) 
Loss adjustment expenses that cannot be attributed to an individual claim. Typically includes salaries, utilities, 
and rent apportioned to the claim adjustment expense function but not readily assignable to specific claims.  
Unpaid Loss Estimate 
The estimate of the obligation for future payments resulting from losses due to past events.  
Valuation Date 
The date through which transactions are included in the data used in the unpaid claim estimate analysis. 
 
18

Exhibit A
Page 1
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Losses & ALAE Forecast for period 7/1/2024 to 6/30/2025 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
Forecasted Loss Cost Limited to $75,000
7.43
(2)
Projected Exposures ($1,000 Payroll)
184,749
75,000
750k / 1M
750k / 1.25M
750k / 2.25M
1M / 3M
1.5M / 3M
(3)
Increased Limit Factor from $75,000 to SIR
1.000
1.936
1.994
2.113
2.172
2.217
(4)
Forecasted Loss Cost Limited to SIR
7.43
14.38
14.81
15.69
16.13
16.46
(5)
Forecasted Ultimate Losses & ALAE
1,372,000
2,656,000
2,736,000
2,898,000
2,980,000
3,042,000
(Central Estimate)
(6)
70th Percentile Losses & ALAE Multiplier
1.146
(7)
Forecasted Ultimate Losses & ALAE
1,572,312
3,043,776
3,135,456
3,321,108
3,415,080
3,486,132
(70th Percentile Value)
(8)
80th Percentile Losses & ALAE Multiplier
1.341
(9)
Forecasted Ultimate Losses & ALAE
1,839,852
3,561,696
3,668,976
3,886,218
3,996,180
4,079,322
(80th Percentile Value)
(10) 90th Percentile Losses & ALAE Multiplier
1.669
(11) Forecasted Ultimate Losses & ALAE
2,289,868
4,432,864
4,566,384
4,836,762
4,973,620
5,077,098
(90th Percentile Value)
Notes:
(1) from Exhibit A, Page 3, Row (9)
(2) from City of Chandler
(3) from Appendix B, Page 1, Column (5), assuming 70% of losses limited to $75,000 correspond to public safety employees, (limit adjusted for trend)
(4) = (1) x (3)
(5) = (2) x (4); rounded
(6) from Exhibit A, Page 2
(7) = (5) x (6)
(8) from Exhibit A, Page 2
(9) = (5) x (8)
(10) from Exhibit A, Page 2
(11) = (5) x (10)
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 Forecast on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
19

Exhibit A
Page 2
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Percentile Factor Calculation for Losses & ALAE Forecast for period 7/1/2024 to 6/30/2025 ‐ Limited to SIR
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
Losses & ALAE CV
5.380
Percentile
Selected
Percentile
Factor
Percentile
Losses & ALAE
Forecast
Claim Count Forecast
140
50.0%
0.884
2,689,128
Forecast Losses & ALAE CV
0.550
60.0%
1.002
3,048,084

0.514
70.0%
1.146
3,486,132

0.264
80.0%
1.341
4,079,322

(0.132)
90.0%
1.669
5,077,098
95.0%
2.000
6,084,000
Losses & ALAE Forecast
3,042,000
99.0%
2.809
8,544,978
(Central Estimate)
Note:
based on a lognormal distribution and
including a variable for parameter risk
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Forecast
Cumulative Probability Distribution
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 %Forecast on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
20

Exhibit A
Page 3
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Losses & ALAE Forecast for period 7/1/2024 to 6/30/2025 ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
Selected Frequency for period 7/1/2024 to 6/30/2025
0.760
(2)
Projected Exposures ($1,000 Payroll)
184,749
(3)
Forecasted Ultimate Counts
140
(Central Estimate)
(4)
Selected Loss Cost for period 7/1/2024 to 6/30/2025
7.40
(5)
Selected Severity for period 7/1/2024 to 6/30/2025
9,800
(6)
Estimated Ultimate Losses & ALAE (Loss Cost Method)
1,367,140
(7)
Estimated Ultimate Losses & ALAE (Frequency/Severity Method)
1,376,007
(8)
Forecasted Ultimate Losses & ALAE
1,372,000
(Central Estimate)
(9)
Forecasted Loss Cost
7.43
(Central Estimate)
Notes:
(1) from Exhibit A, Page 5, Column (8)
(2) from City of Chandler
(3) = (1) / 1,000 x (2)
(4) from Exhibit A, Page 4, Column (8)
(5) from Exhibit A, Page 5, Column (12)
(6) = (2) x (4)
(7) = (1) / 1,000 x (2) x (5)
(8) selected
(9) = (8) / (2)
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 ForecastLim on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
21

Exhibit A
Page 4
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Losses & ALAE Forecast Loss Cost Method ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
Policy Period
Age in 
Months
Ultimate
Exposures
($1,000 Payroll)
Ultimate
Loss Cost
Exposure
Trend
Benefit
Level
Factor
Loss Cost
Trend
Factor
Trended
Ultimate
Loss Cost
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
249
1,886,883
206,142
9.15
1.975
1.250
1.504
8.72
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
228
649,576
90,201
7.20
1.885
1.209
1.453
6.72
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
216
607,316
102,877
5.90
1.798
1.195
1.425
5.59
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
204
763,087
111,710
6.83
1.732
1.160
1.397
6.40
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
192
675,237
120,668
5.60
1.695
1.108
1.370
5.01
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
180
1,304,910
119,800
10.89
1.685
1.065
1.343
9.25
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
168
966,822
113,843
8.49
1.658
1.050
1.317
7.09
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
156
1,161,297
110,414
10.52
1.611
1.042
1.292
8.79
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
144
1,069,226
119,088
8.98
1.570
1.034
1.266
7.49
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
132
1,493,243
115,348
12.95
1.561
1.015
1.242
10.45
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
120
990,336
119,528
8.29
1.527
1.008
1.218
6.66
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
108
1,090,433
127,517
8.55
1.496
0.997
1.194
6.80
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
96
1,264,196
128,452
9.84
1.477
1.006
1.171
7.85
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
84
1,145,736
133,497
8.58
1.428
1.006
1.148
6.94
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
72
1,180,000
135,570
8.70
1.380
1.002
1.125
7.11
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
60
1,140,000
136,800
8.33
1.328
1.002
1.103
6.94
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
48
1,360,000
140,084
9.71
1.221
1.005
1.082
8.64
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
36
890,000
142,931
6.23
1.151
1.002
1.061
5.75
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
24
1,180,000
159,979
7.38
1.098
1.000
1.040
6.99
7/1/2023
to 6/30/2024
12
1,380,000
173,629
7.95
1.048
1.000
1.020
7.74
TOTALS
22,198,297
2,608,077
Notes:
Arithmetic Average
7.35
(1) = (average evaluation period) ‐ (average policy period)
Weighted Average
7.39
(2) from Exhibit C, Page 3, Column (12)
Arithmetic Average Excluding Current Period
7.33
(3) from City of Chandler
Weighted Average Excluding Current Period
7.37
(4) = (2) / (3)
5 Period Arithmetic Average
7.21
(5) derived from the 2023 edition of NCCI Annual Statistical Bulletin
3 Period Arithmetic Average
6.82
(6) based on information published by NCCI
(7) assumed 2.0% annual loss cost trend 
Selected Loss Cost for period 7/1/2024 to 6/30/2025
7.40
(8) = (4) x (6) x (7) / (5)
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 LCforecast on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
22

Exhibit A
Page 5
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Losses & ALAE Forecast Frequency / Severity Method ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Policy Period
Age in 
Months
Exposures
($1,000 Payroll)
Exposure
Trend
Ultimate
Losses
Ultimate
Counts
Ultimate
Frequency
 (per $1M)
Frequency
Trend
Trended Ultimate
Frequency
 (per $1M)
Ultimate
Severity
Benefit
Level
Factor
Severity Trend
Factor
Trended
Ultimate
Severity
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
249
206,142
1.975
1,886,883
355
0.872
0.901
0.786
5,315
1.250
1.669
11,094
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
228
90,201
1.885
649,576
147
0.865
0.909
0.786
4,419
1.209
1.599
8,542
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
216
102,877
1.798
607,316
135
0.730
0.914
0.667
4,499
1.195
1.560
8,382
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
204
111,710
1.732
763,087
161
0.832
0.918
0.764
4,740
1.160
1.522
8,369
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
192
120,668
1.695
675,237
165
0.807
0.923
0.745
4,092
1.108
1.485
6,731
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
180
119,800
1.685
1,304,910
142
0.704
0.928
0.653
9,190
1.065
1.448
14,180
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
168
113,843
1.658
966,822
153
0.811
0.932
0.756
6,319
1.050
1.413
9,379
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
156
110,414
1.611
1,161,297
161
0.905
0.937
0.848
7,213
1.042
1.379
10,364
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
144
119,088
1.570
1,069,226
135
0.722
0.942
0.680
7,920
1.034
1.345
11,014
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
132
115,348
1.561
1,493,243
154
0.855
0.946
0.809
9,696
1.015
1.312
12,920
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
120
119,528
1.527
990,336
143
0.784
0.951
0.745
6,925
1.008
1.280
8,936
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
108
127,517
1.496
1,090,433
153
0.802
0.956
0.766
7,127
0.997
1.249
8,878
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
96
128,452
1.477
1,264,196
133
0.701
0.961
0.673
9,505
1.006
1.218
11,655
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
84
133,497
1.428
1,145,736
149
0.782
0.966
0.755
7,690
1.006
1.189
9,195
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
72
135,570
1.380
1,180,000
158
0.844
0.970
0.819
7,468
1.002
1.160
8,681
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
60
136,800
1.328
1,140,000
148
0.815
0.975
0.795
7,703
1.002
1.131
8,730
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
48
140,084
1.221
1,360,000
135
0.789
0.980
0.774
10,074
1.005
1.104
11,175
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
36
142,931
1.151
890,000
118
0.717
0.985
0.706
7,542
1.002
1.077
8,135
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
24
159,979
1.098
1,180,000
127
0.723
0.990
0.716
9,291
1.000
1.051
9,762
7/1/2023
to 6/30/2024
12
173,629
1.048
1,380,000
151
0.830
0.995
0.826
9,139
1.000
1.025
9,368
TOTALS
2,608,077
22,198,297
3,123
Notes:
Arithmetic Average
0.753
Arithmetic Average
9,775
(1) = (average evaluation period) ‐ (average policy period)
Weighted Average
0.755
Weighted Average
9,837
(2) from City of Chandler
Arithmetic Average Excluding Current Period
0.750
Arithmetic Average Excluding Current Period
9,796
(3) derived from the 2023 edition of NCCI Annual Statistical Bulletin
Weighted Average Excluding Current Period
0.750
Weighted Average Excluding Current Period
9,861
(4) from Exhibit C, Page 3, Column (12)
5 Period Arithmetic Average
0.763
5 Period Arithmetic Average
9,434
(5) from Exhibit D, Page 7, Column (12)
3 Period Arithmetic Average
0.749
3 Period Arithmetic Average
9,088
(6) = (5) / (2) x 1,000 / (3)
(7) assumed ‐0.5% annual frequency trend 
Selected Frequency for period
Selected Severity for period
(8) = (6) x (7)
7/1/2024 to 6/30/2025
0.760
7/1/2024 to 6/30/2025
9,800
(9) = (4) / (5)
(10) based on information published by NCCI
(11) assumed 2.5% annual severity trend 
(12) = (9) x (10) x (11)
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 FSforecast on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
23

Exhibit B
Page 1
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Percentile Factor Calculation for Unpaid Losses & ALAE as of 6/30/2024 ‐ Limited to Self‐Insured Retention (SIR)  
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
Losses & ALAE CV
5.380
Percentile
Selected
Percentile
Factor
Percentile
Unpaid
Losses & ALAE
Open & IBNR Claim Count
132
50.0%
0.895
10,479,023
Unpaid Losses & ALAE CV
0.500
60.0%
1.008
11,802,073

0.472
70.0%
1.145
13,406,125

0.223
80.0%
1.330
15,572,180

(0.112)
90.0%
1.636
19,154,952
95.0%
1.943
22,749,433
Unpaid Losses & ALAE
11,708,406
99.0%
2.681
31,390,236
(Central Estimate)
Note:
based on a lognormal distribution and
including a variable for parameter risk
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Unpaid
Cumulative Probability Distribution
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 %Unpaid on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
24

Exhibit B
Page 2
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Unpaid Losses & ALAE Reconciliation from 6/30/2023 to 6/30/2024 ‐ Limited to Self‐Insured Retention (SIR)  
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
Indicated Unpaid Losses & ALAE as of 6/30/2023
11,105,144
(2)
Estimated Ultimate Losses & ALAE for period 7/1/2023 to 6/30/2024
3,059,000
(3)
Payments for period 7/1/2023 to 6/30/2024
1,470,496
(4)
Change in Ultimate Losses & ALAE since 6/30/2023
(985,242)
(5)
Indicated Unpaid Losses & ALAE as of 6/30/2024
11,708,406
Notes:
(1) from Exhibit B, Page 3, Column (11)
(2) from Exhibit B, Page 3, Column (20)
(3) from Exhibit B, Page 3, Column (13)
(4) from Exhibit B, Page 3, Column (19)
(5) = (1) + (2) ‐ (3) + (4)
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 Reconcile on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
25

Exhibit B
Page 3
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Comparison of Losses & ALAE to Previous Analysis ‐ Limited to Self‐Insured Retention (SIR)  
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2023 
Policy Period
Self‐Insured 
Retention (SIR) 
Paid
Losses
& ALAE
Case 
Reserves
Incurred
Losses
& ALAE
IBNR
Unpaid
Losses
& ALAE
Estimated
Ultimates
Paid
Losses
& ALAE
Case 
Reserves
Incurred
Losses
& ALAE
IBNR
Unpaid
Losses
& ALAE
Estimated
Ultimates
1/1/2003 to 6/30/2005
500,000
2,542,453
28,478
2,570,931
69
28,547
2,571,000
2,542,130
28,801
2,570,931
802
29,603
2,571,732
7/1/2005 to 6/30/2006
500,000
983,484
0
983,484
0
0
983,484
980,808
44,214
1,025,022
978
45,192
1,026,000
7/1/2006 to 6/30/2007
500,000
600,275
18,893
619,168
832
19,725
620,000
600,275
18,893
619,168
‐168
18,725
619,000
7/1/2007 to 6/30/2008
500,000
813,279
187,736
1,001,015
985
188,721
1,002,000
807,083
193,932
1,001,015
985
194,917
1,002,000
7/1/2008 to 6/30/2009
500,000
1,172,864
124,805
1,297,670
330
125,136
1,298,000
1,169,000
128,670
1,297,670
330
129,000
1,298,000
7/1/2009 to 6/30/2010
500,000
1,502,869
147,089
1,649,958
42
147,131
1,650,000
1,495,895
256,445
1,752,340
17,660
274,105
1,770,000
7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
500,000
1,456,561
0
1,456,561
0
0
1,456,561
1,456,561
0
1,456,561
0
0
1,456,561
7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
500,000
1,927,576
41,054
1,968,630
26,370
67,424
1,995,000
1,922,237
303,609
2,225,846
33,154
336,763
2,259,000
7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
600,000
2,185,127
147,273
2,332,401
40,599
187,873
2,373,000
2,160,127
172,274
2,332,401
40,599
212,873
2,373,000
7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
600,000
2,462,520
339,320
2,801,840
69,160
408,480
2,871,000
2,436,924
236,021
2,672,945
64,055
300,076
2,737,000
7/1/2014 to 6/30/2015
600,000
1,597,694
484,535
2,082,229
0
484,535
2,082,229
1,529,426
552,797
2,082,223
0
552,797
2,082,223
7/1/2015 to 6/30/2016
600k / 1M
2,909,318
258,217
3,167,535
104,465
362,682
3,272,000
2,827,131
710,839
3,537,970
60,030
770,869
3,598,000
7/1/2016 to 6/30/2017
600k / 1M
1,648,664
85,102
1,733,766
58,234
143,336
1,792,000
1,645,450
88,309
1,733,760
69,240
157,550
1,803,000
7/1/2017 to 6/30/2018
600k / 1M
1,806,605
928,862
2,735,467
73,533
1,002,395
2,809,000
1,748,680
985,673
2,734,353
74,647
1,060,320
2,809,000
7/1/2018 to 6/30/2019
600k / 1.25M
1,182,445
731,008
1,913,453
81,547
812,555
1,995,000
1,143,328
605,383
1,748,711
124,289
729,672
1,873,000
7/1/2019 to 6/30/2020
600k / 1.25M
1,380,427
816,607
2,197,035
122,965
939,573
2,320,000
1,346,196
662,071
2,008,268
136,732
798,804
2,145,000
7/1/2020 to 6/30/2021
750k / 2.25M
1,611,240
1,249,018
2,860,259
186,741
1,435,760
3,047,000
1,547,001
1,341,756
2,888,756
199,244
1,540,999
3,088,000
7/1/2021 to 6/30/2022
1M / 3M
1,020,259
1,261,690
2,281,949
155,051
1,416,741
2,437,000
944,524
1,318,845
2,263,369
250,631
1,569,476
2,514,000
7/1/2022 to 6/30/2023
1.5M / 3M
1,056,866
680,751
1,737,618
549,382
1,230,134
2,287,000
438,597
796,381
1,234,978
1,587,022
2,383,403
2,822,000
7/1/2023 to 6/30/2024
1.5M / 3M
351,339
1,008,441
1,359,780
1,699,220
2,707,661
3,059,000
TOTALS
30,211,869
8,538,880
38,750,748
3,169,526
11,708,406
41,920,275
28,741,372
8,444,913
37,186,285
2,660,231
11,105,144
39,846,516
(13)
(14)
(15)
(16)
(17)
(18)
(19)
(20)
Difference
Policy Period
Self‐Insured 
Retention (SIR) 
Paid
Losses
& ALAE
Case 
Reserves
Incurred
Losses
& ALAE
IBNR
Unpaid
Losses
& ALAE
Estimated
Ultimates
Estimated
Ultimates
Through 
6/30/2023
Estimated 
Ultimates 
7/1/2023 to 
6/30/2024
Notes:
(1) from City of Chandler
1/1/2003 to 6/30/2005
500,000
323
(323)
0
(732)
(1,056)
(732)
(732)
0
(2) from City of Chandler
7/1/2005 to 6/30/2006
500,000
2,677
(44,214)
(41,538)
(978)
(45,192)
(42,516)
(42,516)
0
(3) from City of Chandler
7/1/2006 to 6/30/2007
500,000
0
0
0
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
0
(4) = (6) ‐ (3)
7/1/2007 to 6/30/2008
500,000
6,197
(6,197)
0
0
(6,197)
0
0
0
(5) = (6) ‐ (1)
7/1/2008 to 6/30/2009
500,000
3,865
(3,865)
0
0
(3,865)
0
0
0
(6) from Exhibit C, Page 1, Column (7)
7/1/2009 to 6/30/2010
500,000
6,974
(109,355)
(102,382)
(17,618)
(126,974)
(120,000)
(120,000)
0
(7) to (12) from previous Oliver Wyman study
7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
500,000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
(13) = (1) ‐ (7)
7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
500,000
5,339
(262,555)
(257,216)
(6,784)
(269,339)
(264,000)
(264,000)
0
(14) = (2) ‐ (8)
7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
600,000
25,001
(25,001)
0
0
(25,001)
0
0
0
(15) = (3) ‐ (9)
7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
600,000
25,597
103,298
128,895
5,105
108,403
134,000
134,000
0
(16) = (4) ‐ (10)
7/1/2014 to 6/30/2015
600,000
68,269
(68,262)
6
0
(68,262)
6
6
0
(17) = (5) ‐ (11)
7/1/2015 to 6/30/2016
600k / 1M
82,187
(452,622)
(370,435)
44,435
(408,187)
(326,000)
(326,000)
0
(18) = (6) ‐ (12)
7/1/2016 to 6/30/2017
600k / 1M
3,214
(3,207)
6
(11,006)
(14,214)
(11,000)
(11,000)
0
(19) = (6) ‐ (12) at 6/30/2023
7/1/2017 to 6/30/2018
600k / 1M
57,924
(56,810)
1,114
(1,114)
(57,924)
0
0
0
(20) derived from (6)
7/1/2018 to 6/30/2019
600k / 1.25M
39,117
125,625
164,743
(42,743)
82,883
122,000
122,000
0
7/1/2019 to 6/30/2020
600k / 1.25M
34,231
154,536
188,767
(13,767)
140,769
175,000
175,000
0
7/1/2020 to 6/30/2021
750k / 2.25M
64,240
(92,737)
(28,497)
(12,503)
(105,240)
(41,000)
(41,000)
0
7/1/2021 to 6/30/2022
1M / 3M
75,735
(57,155)
18,580
(95,580)
(152,735)
(77,000)
(77,000)
0
7/1/2022 to 6/30/2023
1.5M / 3M
618,269
(115,630)
502,639
(1,037,639)
(1,153,269)
(535,000)
(535,000)
0
7/1/2023 to 6/30/2024
1.5M / 3M
351,339
1,008,441
1,359,780
1,699,220
2,707,661
3,059,000
N/A
3,059,000
TOTALS
1,470,496
93,966
1,564,463
509,296
603,262
2,073,758
(985,242)
3,059,000
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 Compare on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
26

Exhibit C
Page 1
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Summary ‐ Limited to Self‐Insured Retention (SIR)  
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
(13)
Losses & ALAE @ SIR
Claim Counts (ex. CWOP)
Policy Period
Self‐Insured 
Retention (SIR) 
Exposures
($1,000 Payroll)
Paid
Case 
Reserves
Incurred
IBNR
Unpaid
Selected
Ultimate
Closed
Open
Reported
IBNR
Open
& IBNR
Selected
Ultimate
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
500,000
206,142
2,542,453
28,478
2,570,931
69
28,547
2,571,000
352
3
355
0
3
355
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
500,000
90,201
983,484
0
983,484
0
0
983,484
147
0
147
0
0
147
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
500,000
102,877
600,275
18,893
619,168
832
19,725
620,000
134
1
135
0
1
135
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
500,000
111,710
813,279
187,736
1,001,015
985
188,721
1,002,000
160
1
161
0
1
161
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
500,000
120,668
1,172,864
124,805
1,297,670
330
125,136
1,298,000
163
2
165
0
2
165
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
500,000
119,800
1,502,869
147,089
1,649,958
42
147,131
1,650,000
140
2
142
0
2
142
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
500,000
113,843
1,456,561
0
1,456,561
0
0
1,456,561
152
1
153
0
1
153
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
500,000
110,414
1,927,576
41,054
1,968,630
26,370
67,424
1,995,000
160
1
161
0
1
161
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
600,000
119,088
2,185,127
147,273
2,332,401
40,599
187,873
2,373,000
131
4
135
0
4
135
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
600,000
115,348
2,462,520
339,320
2,801,840
69,160
408,480
2,871,000
150
4
154
0
4
154
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
600,000
119,528
1,597,694
484,535
2,082,229
0
484,535
2,082,229
141
2
143
0
2
143
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
600k / 1M
127,517
2,909,318
258,217
3,167,535
104,465
362,682
3,272,000
150
3
153
0
3
153
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
600k / 1M
128,452
1,648,664
85,102
1,733,766
58,234
143,336
1,792,000
131
2
133
0
2
133
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
600k / 1M
133,497
1,806,605
928,862
2,735,467
73,533
1,002,395
2,809,000
146
3
149
0
3
149
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
600k / 1.25M
135,570
1,182,445
731,008
1,913,453
81,547
812,555
1,995,000
152
6
158
0
6
158
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
600k / 1.25M
136,800
1,380,427
816,607
2,197,035
122,965
939,573
2,320,000
143
5
148
0
5
148
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
750k / 2.25M
140,084
1,611,240
1,249,018
2,860,259
186,741
1,435,760
3,047,000
128
7
135
0
7
135
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
1M / 3M
142,931
1,020,259
1,261,690
2,281,949
155,051
1,416,741
2,437,000
115
3
118
0
3
118
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
1.5M / 3M
159,979
1,056,866
680,751
1,737,618
549,382
1,230,134
2,287,000
114
12
126
1
13
127
7/1/2023
to 6/30/2024
1.5M / 3M
173,629
351,339
1,008,441
1,359,780
1,699,220
2,707,661
3,059,000
82
58
140
11
69
151
TOTALS
2,608,077
30,211,869
8,538,880
38,750,748
3,169,526
11,708,406
41,920,275
2,991
120
3,111
12
132
3,123
(14)
(15)
(16)
(17)
(18)
(19)
(20)
(Losses & ALAE @ SIR) / (Claim Counts)
Policy Period
Self‐Insured 
Retention (SIR) 
Paid
per
Closed
Case 
Reserves per
 Open
Incurred
per
Reported
Unpaid
per
Open
& IBNR
Implied 
Ultimate 
Severity
Implied 
Ultimate 
Frequency
 (per $1M)
Implied 
Ultimate
Loss Cost
per
Exposure
Notes:
(1) from City of Chandler
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
500,000
7,223
9,493
7,242
9,516
7,242
1.722
12.47
(2) from City of Chandler
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
500,000
6,690
6,690
6,690
1.630
10.90
(3) from City of Chandler
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
500,000
4,480
18,893
4,586
19,725
4,593
1.312
6.03
(4) from City of Chandler
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
500,000
5,083
187,736
6,217
188,721
6,224
1.441
8.97
(5) = (7) ‐ (4)
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
500,000
7,195
62,403
7,865
62,568
7,867
1.367
10.76
(6) = (3) + (5)
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
500,000
10,735
73,545
11,619
73,566
11,620
1.185
13.77
(7) from Exhibit C, Page 2, Column (16)
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
500,000
9,583
0
9,520
0
9,520
1.344
12.79
(8) from City of Chandler
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
500,000
12,047
41,054
12,228
67,424
12,391
1.458
18.07
(9) = (10) ‐ (8)
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
600,000
16,680
36,818
17,277
46,968
17,578
1.134
19.93
(10) from City of Chandler
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
600,000
16,417
84,830
18,194
102,120
18,643
1.335
24.89
(11) = (13) ‐ (10)
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
600,000
11,331
242,267
14,561
242,267
14,561
1.196
17.42
(12) = (9) + (11)
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
600k / 1M
19,395
86,072
20,703
120,894
21,386
1.200
25.66
(13) from Exhibit D, Page 7, Column (12)
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
600k / 1M
12,585
42,551
13,036
71,668
13,474
1.035
13.95
(14) = (2) / (8)
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
600k / 1M
12,374
309,621
18,359
334,132
18,852
1.116
21.04
(15) = (3) / (9)
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
600k / 1.25M
7,779
121,835
12,110
135,426
12,627
1.165
14.72
(16) = (4) / (10)
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
600k / 1.25M
9,653
163,321
14,845
187,915
15,676
1.082
16.96
(17) = (6) / (12)
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
750k / 2.25M
12,588
178,431
21,187
205,109
22,570
0.964
21.75
(18) = (7) / (13)
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
1M / 3M
8,872
420,563
19,339
472,247
20,653
0.826
17.05
(19) = (13) / (1) x 1,000
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
1.5M / 3M
9,271
56,729
13,791
94,626
18,008
0.794
14.30
(20) = (7) / (1)
7/1/2023
to 6/30/2024
1.5M / 3M
4,285
17,387
9,713
39,241
20,258
0.870
17.62
TOTALS
10,101
71,157
12,456
88,700
13,423
1.197
16.07
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 Summary on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
27

Exhibit C
Page 2
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Selected Ultimate Losses & ALAE ‐ Limited to Self‐Insured Retention (SIR)  
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
Limited to $75,000
Limited to SIR
Excess
Policy Period
Self‐Insured 
Retention (SIR) 
Age in 
Months
Incurred
Ultimate
Incurred
LDFs
Expected
IBNR
Incurred
ILFs
to SIR
Incurred
LDFs
Expected
IBNR
Incurred
Expected
IBNR
1/1/2003 to 6/30/2005
500,000
249
1,886,883
1,886,883
1.000
0
2,570,931
1.620
1.000
0
684,047
0
7/1/2005 to 6/30/2006
500,000
228
649,576
649,576
1.000
0
983,484
1.627
1.000
0
333,909
0
7/1/2006 to 6/30/2007
500,000
216
607,316
607,316
1.000
0
619,168
1.631
1.000
0
11,852
0
7/1/2007 to 6/30/2008
500,000
204
763,087
763,087
1.000
0
1,001,015
1.634
1.000
0
237,929
0
7/1/2008 to 6/30/2009
500,000
192
675,237
675,237
1.000
0
1,297,670
1.636
1.000
0
622,433
0
7/1/2009 to 6/30/2010
500,000
180
1,304,910
1,304,910
1.000
0
1,649,958
1.639
1.000
0
345,048
0
7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
500,000
168
966,822
966,822
1.001
966
1,456,561
1.641
1.007
11,202
489,739
10,236
7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
500,000
156
1,161,297
1,161,297
1.002
2,319
1,968,630
1.642
1.014
25,436
807,333
23,117
7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
600,000
144
1,069,226
1,069,226
1.003
3,201
2,332,401
1.710
1.020
35,632
1,263,175
32,431
7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
600,000
132
1,493,243
1,493,243
1.004
5,958
2,801,840
1.717
1.025
61,350
1,308,597
55,392
7/1/2014 to 6/30/2015
600,000
120
990,336
990,336
1.005
4,937
2,082,229
1.724
1.028
46,373
1,091,893
41,436
7/1/2015 to 6/30/2016
600k / 1M
108
1,090,433
1,090,433
1.006
6,520
3,167,535
1.860
1.033
64,974
2,077,102
58,454
7/1/2016 to 6/30/2017
600k / 1M
96
1,264,196
1,264,196
1.007
8,814
1,733,766
1.867
1.034
77,160
469,570
68,346
7/1/2017 to 6/30/2018
600k / 1M
84
1,145,736
1,145,736
1.008
9,125
2,735,467
1.875
1.034
70,350
1,589,731
61,225
7/1/2018 to 6/30/2019
600k / 1.25M
72
1,166,364
1,180,000
1.011
12,899
1,913,453
1.945
1.043
93,591
747,089
80,692
7/1/2019 to 6/30/2020
600k / 1.25M
60
1,117,556
1,140,000
1.016
18,071
2,197,035
1.951
1.056
118,228
1,079,478
100,156
7/1/2020 to 6/30/2021
750k / 2.25M
48
1,327,943
1,360,000
1.021
28,218
2,860,259
2.122
1.065
177,288
1,532,316
149,071
7/1/2021 to 6/30/2022
1M / 3M
36
834,099
890,000
1.029
25,383
2,281,949
2.182
1.068
124,390
1,447,850
99,007
7/1/2022 to 6/30/2023
1.5M / 3M
24
1,089,913
1,180,000
1.048
53,923
1,737,618
2.203
1.083
199,950
647,705
146,027
7/1/2023 to 6/30/2024
1.5M / 3M
12
1,078,355
1,380,000
1.268
291,622
1,359,780
2.216
1.348
790,477
281,424
498,855
TOTALS
21,682,528
22,198,297
471,956
38,750,748
1,896,402
17,068,220
1,424,446
(12)
(13)
(14)
(15)
(16)
Limited to SIR
Indicated Ultimate
Policy Period
Self‐Insured 
Retention (SIR) 
ILF
Method
LDF
Method
Excess
Method
Notes:
(1) = (average evaluation period) ‐ (average policy period)
1/1/2003 to 6/30/2005
500,000
3,056,922
2,570,931
2,570,931
2,571,732
2,571,000
(2) from City of Chandler
7/1/2005 to 6/30/2006
500,000
1,056,848
983,484
983,484
1,026,000
983,484
(3) from Exhibit C, Page 3, Column (12)
7/1/2006 to 6/30/2007
500,000
990,267
619,168
619,168
619,000
620,000
(4) from Appendix A, Page 1
7/1/2007 to 6/30/2008
500,000
1,246,690
1,001,015
1,001,015
1,002,000
1,002,000
(5) = (3) x [ 1 ‐ 1 / (4) ]
7/1/2008 to 6/30/2009
500,000
1,104,965
1,297,670
1,297,670
1,298,000
1,298,000
(6) from City of Chandler
7/1/2009 to 6/30/2010
500,000
2,138,806
1,649,958
1,649,958
1,770,000
1,650,000
(7) from Appendix B, Page 1
7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
500,000
1,586,471
1,466,919
1,466,798
1,456,561
1,456,561
(limit adjusted for trend for prior years)
7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
500,000
1,907,227
1,995,240
1,991,747
2,259,000
1,995,000
(8) from Appendix A, Page 1
7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
600,000
1,828,380
2,378,759
2,364,832
2,373,000
2,373,000
(9) = (3) x (7) x [ 1 ‐ 1 / (8) ]
7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
600,000
2,563,737
2,870,532
2,857,232
2,737,000
2,871,000
(10) = (6) ‐ (2)
7/1/2014 to 6/30/2015
600,000
1,707,040
2,140,374
2,123,665
2,082,223
2,082,229
(11) = (9) ‐ (5)
7/1/2015 to 6/30/2016
600k / 1M
2,027,936
3,272,380
3,225,989
3,598,000
3,272,000
(12) = (3) x (7)
7/1/2016 to 6/30/2017
600k / 1M
2,360,610
1,792,352
1,802,113
1,803,000
1,792,000
(13) = (6) x (8)
7/1/2017 to 6/30/2018
600k / 1M
2,147,968
2,828,093
2,796,692
2,809,000
2,809,000
(14) = (3) + (10) + (11)
7/1/2018 to 6/30/2019
600k / 1.25M
2,295,031
1,994,801
2,007,781
1,873,000
1,995,000
(15) from previous Oliver Wyman study; current year adjusted for revised payroll
7/1/2019 to 6/30/2020
600k / 1.25M
2,224,418
2,320,362
2,319,635
2,145,000
2,320,000
(16) selected
7/1/2020 to 6/30/2021
750k / 2.25M
2,885,556
3,047,497
3,041,387
3,088,000
3,047,000
7/1/2021 to 6/30/2022
1M / 3M
1,941,901
2,438,125
2,436,858
2,514,000
2,437,000
7/1/2022 to 6/30/2023
1.5M / 3M
2,599,667
1,882,400
1,973,732
2,822,000
2,287,000
7/1/2023 to 6/30/2024
1.5M / 3M
3,058,705
1,833,662
2,160,279
3,081,000
3,059,000
TOTALS
40,729,148
40,383,722
40,690,964
42,927,516
41,920,275
Prior
Ultimate
Selected
Ultimate
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 SelectedSIR on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
28

Exhibit C
Page 3
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Selected Ultimate Losses & ALAE ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Policy Period
Exposures
($1,000 Payroll)
Open
& IBNR
Claim Count
Paid 
Incurred 
Paid
Development
Method
Incurred
Development
Method
Loss Cost
Method
Frequency /
Severity
Method
Paid
Bornhuetter‐
Ferguson
Method
Incurred
Bornhuetter‐
Ferguson
Method
Prior
Ultimate
Selected
Ultimate
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
206,142
3
1,875,899
1,886,883
1,885,458
1,886,883
1,885,465
1,886,883
1,886,883
1,886,883
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
90,201
0
649,576
649,576
654,780
649,576
654,739
649,576
649,576
649,576
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
102,877
1
588,424
607,316
594,324
607,316
594,453
607,316
607,000
607,316
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
111,710
1
763,087
763,087
772,280
763,087
772,171
763,087
763,087
763,087
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
120,668
2
675,237
675,237
684,739
675,237
684,607
675,237
675,237
675,237
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
119,800
2
1,299,965
1,304,910
1,322,213
1,304,910
1,321,922
1,304,910
1,309,000
1,304,910
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
113,843
1
966,822
966,822
986,318
967,789
985,933
967,788
966,822
966,822
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
110,414
1
1,161,297
1,161,297
1,188,270
1,163,621
1,187,657
1,163,616
1,160,847
1,161,297
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
119,088
4
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,097,342
1,072,437
1,096,622
1,072,427
1,069,226
1,069,226
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
115,348
4
1,493,243
1,493,243
1,538,639
1,499,225
1,537,300
1,499,201
1,493,243
1,493,243
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
119,528
2
990,336
990,336
1,024,525
995,297
1,023,384
995,273
990,329
990,336
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
127,517
3
1,040,415
1,090,433
1,081,715
1,096,992
1,082,048
1,096,952
1,090,420
1,090,433
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
128,452
2
1,264,196
1,264,196
1,322,265
1,273,072
1,319,715
1,273,010
1,264,190
1,264,196
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
133,497
3
1,111,749
1,145,736
1,170,955
1,154,934
1,169,680
1,154,861
1,144,622
1,145,736
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
135,570
6
1,079,002
1,166,364
1,145,556
1,179,255
1,147,514
1,179,255
1,150,000
1,180,000
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
136,800
5
1,084,488
1,117,556
1,162,894
1,135,557
1,161,973
1,135,774
1,150,000
1,140,000
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
140,084
7
1,222,414
1,327,943
1,337,007
1,356,079
1,163,774
1,185,047
1,322,160
1,352,089
1,390,000
1,360,000
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
142,931
3
812,505
834,099
915,332
858,586
1,145,511
1,065,376
941,190
866,769
940,000
890,000
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
159,979
13
902,535
1,089,913
1,103,181
1,142,104
1,249,537
1,177,053
1,129,800
1,147,014
1,270,000
1,180,000
7/1/2023
to 6/30/2024
173,629
69
351,339
1,078,355
783,739
1,367,292
1,319,582
1,434,500
1,079,371
1,357,210
1,382,000
1,380,000
TOTALS
2,608,077
132
20,401,753
21,682,528
21,771,534
22,149,249
22,097,703
22,148,248
22,352,481
22,198,297
Notes:
(1) from City of Chandler
(7) from Exhibit D, Page 3, Column (10)
(2) = Exhibit D, Page 7, Column (12) ‐ closed claim counts with payment
(8) from Exhibit D, Page 4, Column (8)
(3) from City of Chandler
(9) from Exhibit D, Page 5, Column (7)
(4) from City of Chandler
(10) from Exhibit D, Page 6, Column (7)
(5) from Exhibit D, Page 1, Column (4)
(11) from previous Oliver Wyman study; current year adjusted for revised payroll
(6) from Exhibit D, Page 2, Column (4)
(12) selected
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 SelectedLim on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
29

Exhibit D
Page 1
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Paid Losses & ALAE Development Method ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Policy Period
Age in
Months
Paid
Cumulative 
Development 
Factors
Ultimate
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
249
1,875,899
1.005
1,885,458
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
228
649,576
1.008
654,780
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
216
588,424
1.010
594,324
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
204
763,087
1.012
772,280
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
192
675,237
1.014
684,739
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
180
1,299,965
1.017
1,322,213
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
168
966,822
1.020
986,318
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
156
1,161,297
1.023
1,188,270
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
144
1,069,226
1.026
1,097,342
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
132
1,493,243
1.030
1,538,639
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
120
990,336
1.035
1,024,525
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
108
1,040,415
1.040
1,081,715
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
96
1,264,196
1.046
1,322,265
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
84
1,111,749
1.053
1,170,955
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
72
1,079,002
1.062
1,145,556
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
60
1,084,488
1.072
1,162,894
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
48
1,222,414
1.094
1,337,007
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
36
812,505
1.127
915,332
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
24
902,535
1.222
1,103,181
7/1/2023
to 6/30/2024
12
351,339
2.231
783,739
TOTALS
20,401,753
21,771,534
Notes:
(1) = (average evaluation period) ‐ (average policy period)
(2) from City of Chandler
(3) from Appendix A, Page 1
(4) = (2) x (3)
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 pDev on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
30

Exhibit D
Page 2
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Incurred Losses & ALAE Development Method ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Policy Period
Age in
Months
Incurred 
Cumulative
Development
Factors
Ultimate 
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
249
1,886,883
1.000
1,886,883
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
228
649,576
1.000
649,576
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
216
607,316
1.000
607,316
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
204
763,087
1.000
763,087
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
192
675,237
1.000
675,237
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
180
1,304,910
1.000
1,304,910
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
168
966,822
1.001
967,789
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
156
1,161,297
1.002
1,163,621
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
144
1,069,226
1.003
1,072,437
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
132
1,493,243
1.004
1,499,225
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
120
990,336
1.005
995,297
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
108
1,090,433
1.006
1,096,992
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
96
1,264,196
1.007
1,273,072
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
84
1,145,736
1.008
1,154,934
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
72
1,166,364
1.011
1,179,255
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
60
1,117,556
1.016
1,135,557
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
48
1,327,943
1.021
1,356,079
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
36
834,099
1.029
858,586
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
24
1,089,913
1.048
1,142,104
7/1/2023
to 6/30/2024
12
1,078,355
1.268
1,367,292
TOTALS
21,682,528
22,149,249
Notes:
(1) = (average evaluation period) ‐ (average policy period)
(2) from City of Chandler
(3) from Appendix A, Page 1
(4) = (2) x (3)
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 iDev on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
31

Exhibit D
Page 3
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Losses & ALAE Cost Method ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
Policy Period
Age in
Months
Preliminary
Ultimate 
Exposures
($1,000 Payroll)
Exposure
Trend
Benefit
Level
Factor
Preliminary
Ultimate
Loss Cost
Loss Cost
Trend
Factor
Preliminary
Trended Ult
Loss Cost
Adjusted
Selected
Loss Cost
Ultimate
1/1/2003 to 6/30/2005
249
1,886,883
206,142
1.884
1.250
6.07
1.475
8.96
7.76
7/1/2005 to 6/30/2006
228
649,576
90,201
1.798
1.209
4.84
1.425
6.90
7.93
7/1/2006 to 6/30/2007
216
607,316
102,877
1.716
1.195
4.11
1.397
5.74
7.81
7/1/2007 to 6/30/2008
204
763,087
111,710
1.652
1.160
4.80
1.370
6.57
7.90
7/1/2008 to 6/30/2009
192
675,237
120,668
1.618
1.108
3.83
1.343
5.15
8.26
7/1/2009 to 6/30/2010
180
1,304,910
119,800
1.608
1.065
7.22
1.317
9.51
8.71
7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
168
966,822
113,843
1.582
1.050
5.64
1.292
7.28
8.86
7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
156
1,161,297
110,414
1.537
1.042
7.13
1.266
9.03
8.85
7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
144
1,069,226
119,088
1.499
1.034
6.20
1.242
7.69
8.87
7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
132
1,493,243
115,348
1.490
1.015
8.82
1.218
10.74
9.16
7/1/2014 to 6/30/2015
120
990,336
119,528
1.457
1.008
5.73
1.194
6.84
9.20
7/1/2015 to 6/30/2016
108
1,090,433
127,517
1.428
0.997
5.97
1.171
6.99
9.30
7/1/2016 to 6/30/2017
96
1,264,196
128,452
1.409
1.006
7.03
1.148
8.06
9.27
7/1/2017 to 6/30/2018
84
1,145,736
133,497
1.362
1.006
6.34
1.125
7.13
9.15
7/1/2018 to 6/30/2019
72
1,179,255
135,570
1.317
1.002
6.62
1.103
7.30
9.05
7/1/2019 to 6/30/2020
60
1,149,226
136,800
1.267
1.002
6.64
1.082
7.19
8.88
7/1/2020 to 6/30/2021
48
1,346,543
140,084
1.165
1.005
8.29
1.061
8.79
8.31
1,163,774
7/1/2021 to 6/30/2022
36
886,959
142,931
1.099
1.002
5.66
1.040
5.88
8.01
1,145,511
7/1/2022 to 6/30/2023
24
1,159,033
159,979
1.048
1.000
6.91
1.020
7.05
7.81
1,249,537
7/1/2023 to 6/30/2024
12
1,339,512
173,629
1.000
1.000
7.71
1.000
7.71
7.60
1,319,582
TOTALS
22,128,826
2,608,077
Notes:
Arithmetic Average
7.52
(1) = (average evaluation period) ‐ (average policy period)
Weighted Average
7.56
(2) based on Exhibit D, Page 1 and 2, Column (4) and actuarial judgment
5 Period Arithmetic Average
7.24
(3) from City of Chandler
3 Period Arithmetic Average
7.24
(4) derived from the 2023 edition of NCCI Annual Statistical Bulletin
(5) based on information published by NCCI
Prior Forecast
7.95
(6) = (2) x (5) / (3) / (4)
(7) assumed 2.0% annual loss cost trend 
Frequency x Severity
7.60
(8) = (6) x (7)
(9) = (Selected for period 7/1/2023 to 6/30/2024) x (4) / (5) / (7)
Selected for period 7/1/2023 to 6/30/2024
7.60
(10) = (3) x (9)
Excluding 
Current 
Period
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 LossCost on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
32

Exhibit D
Page 4
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Frequency / Severity Method for Losses & ALAE ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
Policy Period
Preliminary
Ultimate
Selected
Ultimate
Counts
Benefit
Level
Factor
Preliminary
Ultimate
Severity
Severity
Trend
Factor
Preliminary 
Trended
Ultimate
Severity
Adjusted
Selected
Severity
Ultimate
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
1,886,883
355
1.250
6,647
1.628
10,824
4,665
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
649,576
147
1.209
5,343
1.560
8,333
5,038
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
607,316
135
1.195
5,374
1.522
8,177
5,227
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
763,087
161
1.160
5,500
1.485
8,165
5,515
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
675,237
165
1.108
4,534
1.448
6,567
5,920
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
1,304,910
142
1.065
9,791
1.413
13,834
6,311
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
966,822
153
1.050
6,638
1.379
9,150
6,561
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
1,161,297
161
1.042
7,518
1.345
10,111
6,777
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
1,069,226
135
1.034
8,190
1.312
10,746
7,002
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
1,493,243
154
1.015
9,847
1.280
12,604
7,308
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
990,336
143
1.008
6,980
1.249
8,718
7,547
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
1,090,433
153
0.997
7,109
1.218
8,662
7,817
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
1,264,196
133
1.006
9,566
1.189
11,370
7,942
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
1,145,736
149
1.006
7,736
1.160
8,971
8,143
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
1,179,255
158
1.002
7,480
1.131
8,463
8,378
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
1,149,226
148
1.002
7,778
1.104
8,586
8,592
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
1,346,543
135
1.005
10,024
1.077
10,795
8,778
1,185,047
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
886,959
118
1.002
7,528
1.051
7,909
9,029
1,065,376
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
1,159,033
127
1.000
9,126
1.025
9,355
9,268
1,177,053
7/1/2023
to 6/30/2024
1,339,512
151
1.000
8,871
1.000
8,871
9,500
1,434,500
TOTALS
22,128,826
3,123
Notes:
Arithmetic Average
9,544
(1) based on Exhibit D, Page 1 and 2, Column (4) and actuarial judgment
Weighted Average
9,610
(2) from Exhibit D, Page 7, Column (12)
5 Period Arithmetic Average
9,022
(3) based on information published by NCCI
3 Period Arithmetic Average
9,353
(4) = (1) / (2) x (3)
(5) assumed 2.5% annual severity trend 
Prior Forecast
9,600
(6) = (4) x (5)
(7) = (Selected for period 7/1/2023 to 6/30/2024) / [ (3) x (5) ]
Selected for period 7/1/2023 to 6/30/2024
9,500
(8) = (2) x (7)
Excluding 
Current 
Period
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 FrSev on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
33

Exhibit D
Page 5
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Paid Losses & ALAE Bornhuetter‐Ferguson Method ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Policy Period
Age in
Months
Preliminary
Ultimate
Actual
Paid
Cumulative
Development
Factors
Expected
Paid
Expected
Unpaid
Ultimate
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
249
1,886,883
1,875,899
1.005
1,877,318
9,566
1,885,465
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
228
649,576
649,576
1.008
644,413
5,163
654,739
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
216
607,316
588,424
1.010
601,287
6,030
594,453
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
204
763,087
763,087
1.012
754,002
9,084
772,171
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
192
675,237
675,237
1.014
665,867
9,370
684,607
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
180
1,304,910
1,299,965
1.017
1,282,953
21,957
1,321,922
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
168
966,822
966,822
1.020
947,711
19,111
985,933
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
156
1,161,297
1,161,297
1.023
1,134,937
26,360
1,187,657
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
144
1,069,226
1,069,226
1.026
1,041,830
27,396
1,096,622
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
132
1,493,243
1,493,243
1.030
1,449,186
44,057
1,537,300
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
120
990,336
990,336
1.035
957,288
33,048
1,023,384
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
108
1,090,433
1,040,415
1.040
1,048,800
41,632
1,082,048
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
96
1,264,196
1,264,196
1.046
1,208,678
55,519
1,319,715
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
84
1,145,736
1,111,749
1.053
1,087,805
57,931
1,169,680
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
72
1,179,255
1,079,002
1.062
1,110,743
68,512
1,147,514
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
60
1,149,226
1,084,488
1.072
1,071,741
77,485
1,161,973
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
48
1,163,774
1,222,414
1.094
1,064,028
99,746
1,322,160
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
36
1,145,511
812,505
1.127
1,016,826
128,686
941,190
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
24
1,249,537
902,535
1.222
1,022,272
227,265
1,129,800
7/1/2023
to 6/30/2024
12
1,319,582
351,339
2.231
591,549
728,032
1,079,371
TOTALS
22,275,183
20,401,753
20,579,233
1,695,950
22,097,703
Notes:
(1) = (average evaluation period) ‐ (average policy period)
(2) based on Exhibit D, Page 1 and 2, Column (4) and actuarial judgment; most recent 4 periods from Exhibit D, Page 3, Column (10)
(3) from City of Chandler
(4) from Appendix A, Page 1
(5) = (2) x [ 1 / (4) ]
(6) = (2) x [ 1 ‐ 1 / (4) ]
(7) = (3) + (6)
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 pBF on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
34

Exhibit D
Page 6
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Incurred Losses & ALAE Bornhuetter‐Ferguson Method ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Policy Period
Age in
Months
Preliminary
Ultimate 
Actual
Incurred 
Cumulative
Development
Factors
Expected
Incurred 
Expected
IBNR
Ultimate 
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
249
1,886,883
1,886,883
1.000
1,886,883
0
1,886,883
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
228
649,576
649,576
1.000
649,576
0
649,576
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
216
607,316
607,316
1.000
607,316
0
607,316
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
204
763,087
763,087
1.000
763,087
0
763,087
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
192
675,237
675,237
1.000
675,237
0
675,237
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
180
1,304,910
1,304,910
1.000
1,304,910
0
1,304,910
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
168
966,822
966,822
1.001
965,856
966
967,788
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
156
1,161,297
1,161,297
1.002
1,158,978
2,319
1,163,616
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
144
1,069,226
1,069,226
1.003
1,066,025
3,201
1,072,427
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
132
1,493,243
1,493,243
1.004
1,487,285
5,958
1,499,201
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
120
990,336
990,336
1.005
985,399
4,937
995,273
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
108
1,090,433
1,090,433
1.006
1,083,913
6,520
1,096,952
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
96
1,264,196
1,264,196
1.007
1,255,382
8,814
1,273,010
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
84
1,145,736
1,145,736
1.008
1,136,612
9,125
1,154,861
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
72
1,179,255
1,166,364
1.011
1,166,364
12,891
1,179,255
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
60
1,149,226
1,117,556
1.016
1,131,008
18,218
1,135,774
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
48
1,163,774
1,327,943
1.021
1,139,628
24,146
1,352,089
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
36
1,145,511
834,099
1.029
1,112,841
32,670
866,769
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
24
1,249,537
1,089,913
1.048
1,192,436
57,101
1,147,014
7/1/2023
to 6/30/2024
12
1,319,582
1,078,355
1.268
1,040,727
278,854
1,357,210
TOTALS
22,275,183
21,682,528
21,809,463
465,720
22,148,248
Notes:
(1) = (average evaluation period) ‐ (average policy period)
(2) based on Exhibit D, Page 1 and 2, Column (4) and actuarial judgment; most recent 4 periods from Exhibit D, Page 3, Column (10)
(3) from City of Chandler
(4) from 
(5) = (2) x [ 1 / (4) ]
(6) = (2) x [ 1 ‐ 1 / (4) ]
(7) = (3) + (6)
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 iBF on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
35

Exhibit D
Page 7
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Selected Ultimate Claim Counts ‐ Excluding Closed Without Payments 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
(13)
Policy Period
Age in 
Months
Exposures
($1,000 
Payroll)
Exposure
Trend
Reported 
Counts
Cumulative
Development
Factors
Estimated
Ultimate 
Counts
Preliminary
Frequency
 (per $1M)
Frequency
Trend
Preliminary
Trended
Frequency
 (per $1M)
Estimated
Ultimate
Counts
Prior
Ultimate
Counts
Selected
Ultimate
Counts
Selected
Frequency
 (per $1M)
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
249
206,142
1.884
355
1.000
355
0.914
0.906
0.828
355
355
355
1.722
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
228
90,201
1.798
147
1.000
147
0.906
0.914
0.828
147
147
147
1.630
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
216
102,877
1.716
135
1.000
135
0.765
0.918
0.702
135
135
135
1.312
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
204
111,710
1.652
161
1.000
161
0.872
0.923
0.805
161
161
161
1.441
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
192
120,668
1.618
165
1.000
165
0.845
0.928
0.784
165
165
165
1.367
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
180
119,800
1.608
142
1.000
142
0.737
0.932
0.687
142
142
142
1.185
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
168
113,843
1.582
153
1.000
153
0.849
0.937
0.796
153
153
153
1.344
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
156
110,414
1.537
161
1.000
161
0.948
0.942
0.893
161
161
161
1.458
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
144
119,088
1.499
135
1.000
135
0.756
0.946
0.716
135
135
135
1.134
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
132
115,348
1.490
154
1.000
154
0.896
0.951
0.852
154
154
154
1.335
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
120
119,528
1.457
143
1.000
143
0.821
0.956
0.785
143
143
143
1.196
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
108
127,517
1.428
153
1.000
153
0.840
0.961
0.807
153
153
153
1.200
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
96
128,452
1.409
133
1.000
133
0.735
0.966
0.709
133
133
133
1.035
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
84
133,497
1.362
149
1.000
149
0.819
0.970
0.795
149
149
149
1.116
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
72
135,570
1.317
158
1.000
158
0.885
0.975
0.863
158
158
158
1.165
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
60
136,800
1.267
148
1.000
148
0.854
0.980
0.837
148
148
148
1.082
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
48
140,084
1.165
135
1.000
135
0.827
0.985
0.815
135
135
135
0.964
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
36
142,931
1.099
118
1.001
118
0.752
0.990
0.745
118
118
118
0.826
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
24
159,979
1.048
126
1.004
127
0.754
0.995
0.751
127
131
127
0.794
7/1/2023
to 6/30/2024
12
173,629
1.000
140
1.079
151
0.870
1.000
0.870
150
144
151
0.870
TOTALS
2,608,077
3,111
3,123
3,122
3,120
3,123
Arithmetic Average
0.789
Notes:
Weighted Average
0.790
(1) = (average evaluation period) ‐ (average policy period)
5 Period Arithmetic Average
0.802
(2) from City of Chandler
3 Period Arithmetic Average
0.770
(3) Total Weighted by State annual trend from
2023 edition of NCCI Annual Statistical Bulletin
Prior Forecast
0.830
(4) from City of Chandler
(5) from Appendix A, Page 1
Selected for period 7/1/2023 to 6/30/2024
0.800
(6) = (4) x (5)
(7) = (6) / (2) x 1,000 / (3)
(8) assumed ‐0.5% annual frequency trend 
(9) = (7) x (8)
(10) = { selected (9) x (2) / 1,000 x (3) / (8) x [ 1 ‐ 1 / (5) ] } + (4)
(11) from previous Oliver Wyman study; current year adjusted for revised payroll
(12) selected
(13) = (12) / (2) x 1,000
Excluding 
Current 
Period
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 Ult# on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
36

Exhibit E
Page 1
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Actual vs. Expected Paid Losses & ALAE between 7/1/2023 and 6/30/2024 ‐ Limited to Self‐Insured Retention (SIR)  
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Policy Period
Ultimate 
@ 6/30/2023
Paid 
@ 6/30/2023
Unpaid 
@ 6/30/2023
Expected 
Period
Paid %
Expected
Period
Paid
Actual
Period
Paid
Difference
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
2,571,732
2,542,130
29,603
16.2%
4,786
323
(4,463)
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
1,026,000
980,808
45,192
4.0%
1,829
2,677
847
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
619,000
600,275
18,725
3.3%
617
0
(617)
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
1,002,000
807,083
194,917
2.1%
4,059
6,197
2,138
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
1,298,000
1,169,000
129,000
6.4%
8,243
3,865
(4,378)
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
1,770,000
1,495,895
274,105
4.6%
12,621
6,974
(5,647)
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
1,456,561
1,456,561
0
3.3%
0
0
0
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
2,259,000
1,922,237
336,763
5.7%
19,355
5,339
(14,016)
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
2,373,000
2,160,127
212,873
3.8%
8,102
25,001
16,898
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
2,737,000
2,436,924
300,076
4.6%
13,856
25,597
11,740
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
2,082,223
1,529,426
552,797
5.0%
27,511
68,269
40,757
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
3,598,000
2,827,131
770,869
4.6%
35,288
82,187
46,899
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
1,803,000
1,645,450
157,550
4.9%
7,687
3,214
(4,473)
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
2,809,000
1,748,680
1,060,320
3.6%
37,831
57,924
20,094
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
1,873,000
1,143,328
729,672
3.5%
25,226
39,117
13,892
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
2,145,000
1,346,196
798,804
28.2%
225,182
34,231
(190,951)
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
3,088,000
1,547,001
1,540,999
2.1%
32,144
64,240
32,096
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
2,514,000
944,524
1,569,476
3.9%
61,411
75,735
14,324
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
2,822,000
438,597
2,383,403
59.2%
1,411,238
618,269
(792,969)
TOTALS
39,846,516
28,741,372
11,105,144
1,936,986
1,119,157
(817,829)
Notes:
(1) from previous Oliver Wyman study
(5)  = (3) x (4)
(2) from previous Oliver Wyman study
(6) from City of Chandler
(3)  = (1) ‐ (2)
(7)  = (6) ‐ (5)
(4) based on paid loss development factors from previous Oliver Wyman study
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 PLdiffSIR on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
37

Exhibit E
Page 2
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Actual vs. Expected Incurred Losses & ALAE between 7/1/2023 and 6/30/2024 ‐ Limited to Self‐Insured Retention (SIR)  
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Policy Period
Ultimate 
@ 6/30/2023
Incurred 
@ 6/30/2023
IBNR 
@ 6/30/2023
Expected 
Period
Incurred %
Expected
Period
Incurred
Actual
Period
Incurred
Difference
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
2,571,732
2,570,931
802
100.0%
802
0
(802)
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
1,026,000
1,025,022
978
100.0%
978
(41,538)
(42,516)
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
619,000
619,168
(168)
100.0%
(168)
0
168
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
1,002,000
1,001,015
985
100.0%
985
0
(985)
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
1,298,000
1,297,670
330
100.0%
330
0
(330)
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
1,770,000
1,752,340
17,660
100.0%
17,660
(102,382)
(120,042)
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
1,456,561
1,456,561
0
47.1%
0
0
0
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
2,259,000
2,225,846
33,154
28.5%
9,440
(257,216)
(266,656)
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
2,373,000
2,332,401
40,599
18.6%
7,536
0
(7,536)
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
2,737,000
2,672,945
64,055
11.9%
7,630
128,895
121,265
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
2,082,223
2,082,223
0
6.6%
0
6
6
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
3,598,000
3,537,970
60,030
2.0%
1,189
(370,435)
(371,624)
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
1,803,000
1,733,760
69,240
0.2%
138
6
(132)
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
2,809,000
2,734,353
74,647
17.1%
12,757
1,114
(11,643)
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
1,873,000
1,748,711
124,289
23.3%
28,927
164,743
135,816
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
2,145,000
2,008,268
136,732
8.5%
11,591
188,767
177,176
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
3,088,000
2,888,756
199,244
8.8%
17,615
(28,497)
(46,113)
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
2,514,000
2,263,369
250,631
14.6%
36,578
18,580
(17,998)
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
2,822,000
1,234,978
1,587,022
70.6%
1,119,927
502,639
(617,288)
TOTALS
39,846,516
37,186,285
2,660,231
1,273,915
204,683
(1,069,232)
Notes:
(1) from previous Oliver Wyman study
(5)  = (3) x (4)
(2) from previous Oliver Wyman study
(6) from City of Chandler
(3)  = (1) ‐ (2)
(7)  = (6) ‐ (5)
(4) based on incurred loss development factors from previous Oliver Wyman study
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 ILdiffSIR on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
38

Exhibit E
Page 3
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Actual vs. Expected Paid Losses & ALAE between 7/1/2023 and 6/30/2024 ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Policy Period
Ultimate 
@ 6/30/2023
Paid 
@ 6/30/2023
Unpaid 
@ 6/30/2023
Expected 
Period
Paid %
Expected
Period
Paid
Actual
Period
Paid
Difference
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
1,886,883
1,875,850
11,033
20.0%
2,206
49
(2,157)
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
649,576
649,576
0
16.6%
0
0
0
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
607,000
588,424
18,576
14.2%
2,642
0
(2,642)
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
763,087
763,087
0
12.4%
0
0
0
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
675,237
675,237
0
15.7%
0
0
0
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
1,309,000
1,299,823
9,177
13.5%
1,241
142
(1,098)
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
966,822
966,822
0
11.9%
0
0
0
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
1,160,847
1,160,847
0
13.6%
0
450
450
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
1,069,226
1,069,226
0
11.9%
0
0
0
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
1,493,243
1,493,243
0
12.9%
0
0
0
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
990,329
990,329
0
13.4%
0
6
6
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
1,090,420
1,040,402
50,018
13.4%
6,708
13
(6,695)
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
1,264,190
1,264,190
0
13.2%
0
6
6
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
1,144,622
1,110,635
33,987
12.8%
4,360
1,114
(3,246)
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
1,150,000
1,060,578
89,422
12.4%
11,059
18,424
7,364
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
1,150,000
1,080,251
69,749
19.5%
13,613
4,237
(9,376)
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
1,390,000
1,205,663
184,337
24.8%
45,738
16,750
(28,987)
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
940,000
777,014
162,986
36.9%
60,178
35,490
(24,687)
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
1,270,000
378,172
891,828
64.8%
578,042
524,364
(53,678)
TOTALS
20,970,481
19,449,368
1,521,113
725,786
601,046
(124,740)
Notes:
(1) from previous Oliver Wyman study
(5)  = (3) x (4)
(2) from previous Oliver Wyman study
(6) from City of Chandler
(3)  = (1) ‐ (2)
(7)  = (6) ‐ (5)
(4) based on paid loss development factors from previous Oliver Wyman study
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 PLdiff on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
39

Exhibit E
Page 4
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Actual vs. Expected Incurred Losses & ALAE between 7/1/2023 and 6/30/2024 ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Policy Period
Ultimate 
@ 6/30/2023
Incurred 
@ 6/30/2023
IBNR 
@ 6/30/2023
Expected 
Period
Incurred %
Expected
Period
Incurred
Actual
Period
Incurred
Difference
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
1,886,883
1,886,883
0
100.0%
0
0
0
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
649,576
649,576
0
100.0%
0
0
0
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
607,000
607,316
(316)
100.0%
(316)
0
316
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
763,087
763,087
0
100.0%
0
0
0
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
675,237
675,237
0
100.0%
0
0
0
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
1,309,000
1,304,928
4,072
100.0%
4,072
(19)
(4,090)
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
966,822
966,822
0
50.0%
0
0
0
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
1,160,847
1,160,847
0
33.3%
0
450
450
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
1,069,226
1,069,226
0
25.0%
0
0
0
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
1,493,243
1,493,243
0
20.0%
0
0
0
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
990,329
990,329
0
16.6%
0
6
6
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
1,090,420
1,090,420
0
14.2%
0
13
13
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
1,264,190
1,264,190
0
12.5%
0
6
6
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
1,144,622
1,144,622
0
27.1%
0
1,114
1,114
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
1,150,000
1,128,598
21,402
31.0%
6,644
37,767
31,123
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
1,150,000
1,123,047
26,953
23.6%
6,361
(5,490)
(11,851)
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
1,390,000
1,350,396
39,604
31.8%
12,613
(22,454)
(35,066)
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
940,000
810,586
129,414
36.0%
46,622
23,513
(23,109)
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
1,270,000
949,608
320,392
78.6%
251,874
140,305
(111,569)
TOTALS
20,970,481
20,428,961
541,520
327,868
175,212
(152,656)
Notes:
(1) from previous Oliver Wyman study
(5)  = (3) x (4)
(2) from previous Oliver Wyman study
(6) from City of Chandler
(3)  = (1) ‐ (2)
(7)  = (6) ‐ (5)
(4) based on incurred loss development factors from previous Oliver Wyman study
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 ILdiff on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
40

Appendix A
Page 1
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Selected Loss Development Factors ‐ Age to Ultimate 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
Paid Losses & ALAE
Incurred Losses & ALAE
Reported
Counts
Age
75,000
500,000
600,000
880,000
1,000,000
1,055,000
1,800,000
2,400,000
2,550,000
75,000
500,000
600,000
880,000
1,055,000
1,800,000
2,400,000
2,550,000
Age
Excl. CWOP
12
2.231
2.415
2.420
2.435
2.441
2.443
2.464
2.470
2.470
1.268
1.329
1.331
1.337
1.340
1.346
1.348
1.348
12
1.079
24
1.222
1.280
1.282
1.287
1.289
1.289
1.293
1.294
1.294
1.048
1.075
1.076
1.079
1.080
1.082
1.083
1.083
24
1.004
36
1.127
1.261
1.262
1.268
1.270
1.270
1.275
1.277
1.277
1.029
1.059
1.060
1.063
1.064
1.067
1.068
1.068
36
1.001
48
1.094
1.257
1.259
1.265
1.267
1.268
1.273
1.274
1.275
1.021
1.055
1.057
1.060
1.062
1.065
1.067
1.067
48
1.000
60
1.072
1.157
1.160
1.168
1.171
1.172
1.176
1.178
1.178
1.016
1.050
1.051
1.054
1.056
1.060
1.061
1.061
60
1.000
72
1.062
1.145
1.148
1.157
1.161
1.161
1.167
1.169
1.169
1.011
1.037
1.038
1.041
1.043
1.046
1.046
1.047
72
1.000
84
1.053
1.137
1.141
1.150
1.155
1.155
1.161
1.163
1.163
1.008
1.030
1.031
1.034
1.035
1.038
1.039
1.039
84
1.000
96
1.046
1.129
1.132
1.142
1.147
1.147
1.153
1.155
1.155
1.007
1.030
1.031
1.034
1.035
1.038
1.039
1.039
96
1.000
108
1.040
1.122
1.125
1.135
1.140
1.140
1.146
1.148
1.148
1.006
1.029
1.030
1.033
1.035
1.038
1.039
1.039
108
1.000
120
1.035
1.116
1.119
1.130
1.134
1.135
1.141
1.143
1.143
1.005
1.027
1.028
1.031
1.033
1.036
1.037
1.037
120
1.000
132
1.030
1.112
1.115
1.126
1.130
1.131
1.137
1.139
1.139
1.004
1.024
1.025
1.028
1.029
1.032
1.033
1.033
132
1.000
144
1.026
1.105
1.109
1.119
1.123
1.124
1.130
1.132
1.133
1.003
1.019
1.020
1.023
1.024
1.027
1.028
1.028
144
1.000
156
1.023
1.101
1.105
1.115
1.120
1.120
1.127
1.129
1.129
1.002
1.014
1.014
1.016
1.017
1.019
1.020
1.020
156
1.000
168
1.020
1.096
1.100
1.110
1.115
1.115
1.122
1.124
1.124
1.001
1.007
1.007
1.009
1.009
1.010
1.011
1.011
168
1.000
180
1.017
1.090
1.093
1.104
1.108
1.108
1.115
1.117
1.117
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
180
1.000
192
1.014
1.082
1.085
1.095
1.099
1.099
1.106
1.108
1.108
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
192
1.000
204
1.012
1.078
1.081
1.091
1.095
1.096
1.102
1.104
1.104
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
204
1.000
216
1.010
1.073
1.076
1.086
1.090
1.090
1.096
1.098
1.099
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
216
1.000
228
1.008
1.067
1.070
1.079
1.083
1.083
1.089
1.091
1.091
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
228
1.000
240
1.006
1.059
1.062
1.070
1.074
1.074
1.079
1.081
1.081
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
240
1.000
Notes:
limited (bolded) paid LDFs based on Appendix A, Page 2
limited (bolded) incurred LDFs based on Appendix A, Page 3
other LDFs are adjusted using Oliver Wyman relativities
reported count factors based on Appendix A, Page 4
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 LDFsSum on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
41

Appendix A
Page 2
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Paid Losses & ALAE ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
276,397
536,761
577,418
592,457
605,379
609,033
616,357
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
7/1/2005
200,706
505,966
552,607
594,741
603,672
614,644
622,212
629,386
640,201
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
7/1/2006
209,267
464,091
531,181
552,186
552,895
584,800
585,106
578,421
581,840
581,848
582,063
582,071
582,176
587,789
587,801
588,244
588,424
588,424
7/1/2007
351,283
616,773
702,322
645,614
595,827
595,827
597,997
636,245
658,716
673,524
679,204
686,940
691,745
695,966
750,292
763,087
763,087
7/1/2008
321,961
608,696
622,878
618,457
611,609
627,188
643,015
643,023
644,726
645,027
674,485
674,560
675,237
675,237
675,237
675,237
7/1/2009
807,943
1,268,270
1,274,279
1,258,475
1,269,316
1,268,437
1,268,781
1,299,694
1,301,130
1,299,762
1,300,357
1,299,626
1,299,526
1,299,823
1,299,965
7/1/2010
667,115
932,878
953,600
956,407
966,774
966,782
966,782
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
7/1/2011
656,562
1,042,286
1,107,176
1,140,809
1,152,179
1,153,721
1,157,939
1,158,827
1,159,929
1,160,847
1,160,847
1,160,847
1,161,297
7/1/2012
308,364
737,253
852,237
861,204
899,282
997,688
1,037,066
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
7/1/2013
515,792
1,169,619
1,422,414
1,433,603
1,478,801
1,479,343
1,479,586
1,482,601
1,493,243
1,493,243
1,493,243
7/1/2014
557,797
927,794
988,164
988,803
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,336
7/1/2015
418,716
903,262
998,672
999,797
1,034,850
1,040,344
1,040,350
1,040,402
1,040,415
7/1/2016
496,863
992,965
1,205,210
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,196
7/1/2017
603,228
1,112,325
1,098,076
1,098,692
1,108,047
1,110,635
1,111,749
7/1/2018
517,966
832,096
947,621
994,592
1,060,578
1,079,002
7/1/2019
513,953
927,549
970,464
1,080,251
1,084,488
7/1/2020
589,321
1,148,306
1,205,663
1,222,414
7/1/2021
593,767
777,014
812,505
7/1/2022
378,172
902,535
7/1/2023
351,339
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
to
24
24
to
36
36
to
48
48
to
60
60
to
72
72
to
84
84
to
96
96
to
108
108
to
120
120
to
132
132
to
144
144
to
156
156
to
168
168
to
180
180
to
192
192
to
204
204
to
216
216
to
228
228
to
240
240
to
Ult
7/1/2004
1.942
1.076
1.026
1.022
1.006
1.012
1.009
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2005
2.521
1.092
1.076
1.015
1.018
1.012
1.012
1.017
1.015
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2006
2.218
1.145
1.040
1.001
1.058
1.001
0.989
1.006
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.010
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
7/1/2007
1.756
1.139
0.919
0.923
1.000
1.004
1.064
1.035
1.022
1.008
1.011
1.007
1.006
1.078
1.017
1.000
7/1/2008
1.891
1.023
0.993
0.989
1.025
1.025
1.000
1.003
1.000
1.046
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2009
1.570
1.005
0.988
1.009
0.999
1.000
1.024
1.001
0.999
1.000
0.999
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2010
1.398
1.022
1.003
1.011
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2011
1.587
1.062
1.030
1.010
1.001
1.004
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2012
2.391
1.156
1.011
1.044
1.109
1.039
1.031
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2013
2.268
1.216
1.008
1.032
1.000
1.000
1.002
1.007
1.000
1.000
7/1/2014
1.663
1.065
1.001
1.002
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2015
2.157
1.106
1.001
1.035
1.005
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2016
1.998
1.214
1.049
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2017
1.844
0.987
1.001
1.009
1.002
1.001
7/1/2018
1.606
1.139
1.050
1.066
1.017
7/1/2019
1.805
1.046
1.113
1.004
7/1/2020
1.949
1.050
1.014
7/1/2021
1.309
1.046
7/1/2022
2.387
Average
1.908
1.088
1.019
1.011
1.016
1.007
1.010
1.006
1.003
1.005
1.001
1.001
1.002
1.013
1.004
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Wtd Avg
1.826
1.085
1.018
1.013
1.013
1.006
1.009
1.005
1.002
1.004
1.001
1.001
1.002
1.012
1.004
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
5 Yr Avg
1.811
1.054
1.045
1.023
1.005
1.000
1.007
1.002
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.002
1.003
1.016
3 Yr Avg
1.881
1.047
1.059
1.026
1.007
1.000
1.000
1.002
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.026
1.006
1.000
Prior
1.815
1.090
1.035
1.020
1.010
1.009
1.008
1.007
1.006
1.005
1.004
1.004
1.003
1.003
1.003
1.002
1.002
1.002
1.002
1.008
Tail
Industry
1.742
1.164
1.083
1.049
1.027
1.018
1.014
1.012
1.009
1.008
1.006
1.006
1.004
1.004
1.003
1.003
1.003
1.002
1.003
1.006
Selected
1.825
1.085
1.030
1.020
1.010
1.008
1.007
1.006
1.005
1.004
1.004
1.003
1.003
1.003
1.003
1.002
1.002
1.002
1.002
1.006
Ultimate
2.231
1.222
1.127
1.094
1.072
1.062
1.053
1.046
1.040
1.035
1.030
1.026
1.023
1.020
1.017
1.014
1.012
1.010
1.008
1.006
Pattern
44.8%
37.0%
7.0%
2.7%
1.8%
0.9%
0.8%
0.7%
0.6%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.8%
Notes:
industry development factors based on data from the 2023 edition of NCCI Annual Statistical Bulletin
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 pLDF on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
42

Appendix A
Page 3
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Incurred Losses & ALAE ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
433,092
596,068
636,433
655,098
654,707
654,721
654,029
655,980
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
7/1/2005
218,697
565,416
613,104
665,312
642,903
643,810
643,968
643,968
648,952
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
7/1/2006
357,568
572,351
609,148
626,706
616,108
615,385
618,033
607,264
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
7/1/2007
591,135
736,617
771,326
696,254
661,761
655,981
699,833
718,703
744,997
732,151
728,026
737,820
737,820
811,227
811,227
763,087
763,087
7/1/2008
606,357
695,601
654,669
643,402
642,616
665,025
665,025
665,025
665,025
665,343
674,485
674,560
675,237
675,237
675,237
675,237
7/1/2009
1,209,165
1,384,432
1,317,306
1,278,754
1,278,229
1,275,301
1,280,550
1,306,043
1,306,081
1,305,964
1,306,294
1,305,417
1,305,287
1,304,928
1,304,910
7/1/2010
846,987
997,056
971,294
962,028
966,774
968,032
966,782
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
7/1/2011
1,113,010
1,158,045
1,151,669
1,164,497
1,158,747
1,163,992
1,163,992
1,163,992
1,164,307
1,164,313
1,164,313
1,160,847
1,161,297
7/1/2012
549,779
982,837
971,678
888,485
986,927
1,038,675
1,042,245
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
7/1/2013
1,110,080
1,536,783
1,478,594
1,480,078
1,491,735
1,486,217
1,479,586
1,483,450
1,496,818
1,493,243
1,493,243
7/1/2014
1,041,527
1,020,543
1,008,810
997,553
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,336
7/1/2015
718,305
1,067,238
1,056,357
1,060,018
1,090,362
1,090,362
1,090,368
1,090,420
1,090,433
7/1/2016
919,829
1,249,791
1,257,422
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,196
7/1/2017
1,202,169
1,232,355
1,149,200
1,148,254
1,156,518
1,144,622
1,145,736
7/1/2018
812,003
1,079,028
1,080,187
1,078,690
1,128,598
1,166,364
7/1/2019
859,380
1,040,193
1,083,624
1,123,047
1,117,556
7/1/2020
1,334,418
1,374,718
1,350,396
1,327,943
7/1/2021
1,002,644
810,586
834,099
7/1/2022
949,608
1,089,913
7/1/2023
1,078,355
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
to
24
24
to
36
36
to
48
48
to
60
60
to
72
72
to
84
84
to
96
96
to
108
108
to
120
120
to
132
132
to
144
144
to
156
156
to
168
168
to
180
180
to
192
192
to
204
204
to
216
216
to
228
228
to
240
240
to
Ult
7/1/2004
1.376
1.068
1.029
0.999
1.000
0.999
1.003
0.948
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2005
2.585
1.084
1.085
0.966
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.008
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2006
1.601
1.064
1.029
0.983
0.999
1.004
0.983
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2007
1.246
1.047
0.903
0.950
0.991
1.067
1.027
1.037
0.983
0.994
1.013
1.000
1.099
1.000
0.941
1.000
7/1/2008
1.147
0.941
0.983
0.999
1.035
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.014
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2009
1.145
0.952
0.971
1.000
0.998
1.004
1.020
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.999
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2010
1.177
0.974
0.990
1.005
1.001
0.999
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2011
1.040
0.994
1.011
0.995
1.005
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.997
1.000
7/1/2012
1.788
0.989
0.914
1.111
1.052
1.003
1.026
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2013
1.384
0.962
1.001
1.008
0.996
0.996
1.003
1.009
0.998
1.000
7/1/2014
0.980
0.989
0.989
0.993
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2015
1.486
0.990
1.003
1.029
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2016
1.359
1.006
1.005
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2017
1.025
0.933
0.999
1.007
0.990
1.001
7/1/2018
1.329
1.001
0.999
1.046
1.033
7/1/2019
1.210
1.042
1.036
0.995
7/1/2020
1.030
0.982
0.983
7/1/2021
0.808
1.029
7/1/2022
1.148
Average
1.309
1.003
0.996
1.005
1.007
1.005
1.005
1.000
0.998
1.001
1.001
1.000
1.014
1.000
0.988
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Wtd Avg
1.209
0.994
0.994
1.007
1.006
1.004
1.005
1.001
0.998
1.001
1.001
1.000
1.013
1.000
0.986
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
5 Yr Avg
1.105
0.997
1.005
1.015
1.005
0.999
1.006
1.002
1.000
1.000
0.999
1.000
1.020
1.000
3 Yr Avg
0.995
1.018
1.006
1.016
1.008
1.000
1.000
1.003
0.999
1.000
0.999
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.980
1.000
Prior
1.225
1.018
1.010
1.005
1.005
1.003
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Tail
Industry
1.206
1.048
1.021
1.007
1.006
1.002
1.001
1.002
1.001
1.001
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Selected
1.210
1.018
1.008
1.005
1.005
1.003
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Ultimate
1.268
1.048
1.029
1.021
1.016
1.011
1.008
1.007
1.006
1.005
1.004
1.003
1.002
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Pattern
78.9%
16.6%
1.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Notes:
industry development factors based on data from the 2023 edition of NCCI Annual Statistical Bulletin
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 iLDF on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
43

Appendix A
Page 4
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Reported Claim Counts ‐ Excluding Closed Without Payments 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
135
141
142
142
142
142
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
7/1/2005
120
147
147
147
147
147
155
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
7/1/2006
104
135
135
135
135
139
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
7/1/2007
154
159
160
160
167
160
160
160
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
7/1/2008
164
165
166
177
165
165
165
165
165
164
165
165
165
165
165
165
7/1/2009
140
144
147
144
144
144
144
143
142
142
142
142
142
142
142
7/1/2010
148
161
153
153
153
154
153
153
153
153
153
153
153
153
7/1/2011
167
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
7/1/2012
128
133
134
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
7/1/2013
146
154
154
154
154
154
154
154
154
154
154
7/1/2014
138
140
142
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
7/1/2015
137
153
153
153
153
153
153
153
153
7/1/2016
125
131
132
133
133
133
133
133
7/1/2017
145
150
150
149
149
149
149
7/1/2018
145
159
158
158
158
158
7/1/2019
126
147
148
148
148
7/1/2020
128
134
135
135
7/1/2021
115
118
118
7/1/2022
121
126
7/1/2023
140
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
to
24
24
to
36
36
to
48
48
to
60
60
to
72
72
to
84
84
to
96
96
to
108
108
to
120
120
to
132
132
to
144
144
to
156
156
to
168
168
to
180
180
to
192
192
to
204
204
to
216
216
to
228
228
to
240
240
to
Ult
7/1/2004
1.044
1.007
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.007
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2005
1.225
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.054
0.948
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2006
1.298
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.030
0.971
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2007
1.032
1.006
1.000
1.044
0.958
1.000
1.000
1.006
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2008
1.006
1.006
1.066
0.932
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.994
1.006
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2009
1.029
1.021
0.980
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.993
0.993
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2010
1.088
0.950
1.000
1.000
1.007
0.994
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2011
0.964
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2012
1.039
1.008
1.007
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2013
1.055
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2014
1.014
1.014
1.007
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2015
1.117
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2016
1.048
1.008
1.008
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2017
1.034
1.000
0.993
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2018
1.097
0.994
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2019
1.167
1.007
1.000
1.000
7/1/2020
1.047
1.007
1.000
7/1/2021
1.026
1.000
7/1/2022
1.041
Average
1.072
1.002
1.004
0.998
1.000
1.002
0.995
1.000
0.999
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Wtd Avg
1.067
1.001
1.004
0.998
0.999
1.002
0.995
1.000
0.999
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
5 Yr Avg
1.076
1.002
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
3 Yr Avg
1.038
1.005
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Prior
1.080
1.003
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Tail
Selected
1.075
1.003
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Ultimate
1.079
1.004
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
Pattern
92.7%
6.9%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
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44

Appendix A
Page 5
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Paid Losses & ALAE / Ultimate Losses & ALAE ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
276,397
536,761
577,418
592,457
605,379
609,033
616,357
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
7/1/2005
200,706
505,966
552,607
594,741
603,672
614,644
622,212
629,386
640,201
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
7/1/2006
209,267
464,091
531,181
552,186
552,895
584,800
585,106
578,421
581,840
581,848
582,063
582,071
582,176
587,789
587,801
588,244
588,424
588,424
7/1/2007
351,283
616,773
702,322
645,614
595,827
595,827
597,997
636,245
658,716
673,524
679,204
686,940
691,745
695,966
750,292
763,087
763,087
7/1/2008
321,961
608,696
622,878
618,457
611,609
627,188
643,015
643,023
644,726
645,027
674,485
674,560
675,237
675,237
675,237
675,237
7/1/2009
807,943
1,268,270
1,274,279
1,258,475
1,269,316
1,268,437
1,268,781
1,299,694
1,301,130
1,299,762
1,300,357
1,299,626
1,299,526
1,299,823
1,299,965
7/1/2010
667,115
932,878
953,600
956,407
966,774
966,782
966,782
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
7/1/2011
656,562
1,042,286
1,107,176
1,140,809
1,152,179
1,153,721
1,157,939
1,158,827
1,159,929
1,160,847
1,160,847
1,160,847
1,161,297
7/1/2012
308,364
737,253
852,237
861,204
899,282
997,688
1,037,066
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
7/1/2013
515,792
1,169,619
1,422,414
1,433,603
1,478,801
1,479,343
1,479,586
1,482,601
1,493,243
1,493,243
1,493,243
7/1/2014
557,797
927,794
988,164
988,803
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,336
7/1/2015
418,716
903,262
998,672
999,797
1,034,850
1,040,344
1,040,350
1,040,402
1,040,415
7/1/2016
496,863
992,965
1,205,210
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,196
7/1/2017
603,228
1,112,325
1,098,076
1,098,692
1,108,047
1,110,635
1,111,749
7/1/2018
517,966
832,096
947,621
994,592
1,060,578
1,079,002
7/1/2019
513,953
927,549
970,464
1,080,251
1,084,488
7/1/2020
589,321
1,148,306
1,205,663
1,222,414
7/1/2021
593,767
777,014
812,505
7/1/2022
378,172
902,535
7/1/2023
351,339
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
7/1/2005
0.309
0.779
0.851
0.916
0.929
0.946
0.958
0.969
0.986
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2006
0.345
0.764
0.875
0.909
0.910
0.963
0.963
0.952
0.958
0.958
0.958
0.958
0.959
0.968
0.968
0.969
0.969
0.969
7/1/2007
0.460
0.808
0.920
0.846
0.781
0.781
0.784
0.834
0.863
0.883
0.890
0.900
0.907
0.912
0.983
1.000
1.000
7/1/2008
0.477
0.901
0.922
0.916
0.906
0.929
0.952
0.952
0.955
0.955
0.999
0.999
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2009
0.619
0.972
0.977
0.964
0.973
0.972
0.972
0.996
0.997
0.996
0.997
0.996
0.996
0.996
0.996
7/1/2010
0.690
0.965
0.986
0.989
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2011
0.565
0.898
0.953
0.982
0.992
0.993
0.997
0.998
0.999
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2012
0.288
0.690
0.797
0.805
0.841
0.933
0.970
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2013
0.345
0.783
0.953
0.960
0.990
0.991
0.991
0.993
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2014
0.563
0.937
0.998
0.998
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2015
0.384
0.828
0.916
0.917
0.949
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
7/1/2016
0.393
0.785
0.953
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2017
0.526
0.971
0.958
0.959
0.967
0.969
0.970
7/1/2018
0.439
0.705
0.803
0.843
0.899
0.914
7/1/2019
0.451
0.814
0.851
0.948
0.951
7/1/2020
0.433
0.844
0.887
0.899
7/1/2021
0.667
0.873
0.913
7/1/2022
0.320
0.765
7/1/2023
0.255
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 PL-UL on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
45

Appendix A
Page 6
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Incurred Losses & ALAE / Ultimate Losses & ALAE ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
433,092
596,068
636,433
655,098
654,707
654,721
654,029
655,980
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
7/1/2005
218,697
565,416
613,104
665,312
642,903
643,810
643,968
643,968
648,952
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
7/1/2006
357,568
572,351
609,148
626,706
616,108
615,385
618,033
607,264
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
7/1/2007
591,135
736,617
771,326
696,254
661,761
655,981
699,833
718,703
744,997
732,151
728,026
737,820
737,820
811,227
811,227
763,087
763,087
7/1/2008
606,357
695,601
654,669
643,402
642,616
665,025
665,025
665,025
665,025
665,343
674,485
674,560
675,237
675,237
675,237
675,237
7/1/2009
1,209,165
1,384,432
1,317,306
1,278,754
1,278,229
1,275,301
1,280,550
1,306,043
1,306,081
1,305,964
1,306,294
1,305,417
1,305,287
1,304,928
1,304,910
7/1/2010
846,987
997,056
971,294
962,028
966,774
968,032
966,782
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
7/1/2011
1,113,010
1,158,045
1,151,669
1,164,497
1,158,747
1,163,992
1,163,992
1,163,992
1,164,307
1,164,313
1,164,313
1,160,847
1,161,297
7/1/2012
549,779
982,837
971,678
888,485
986,927
1,038,675
1,042,245
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
7/1/2013
1,110,080
1,536,783
1,478,594
1,480,078
1,491,735
1,486,217
1,479,586
1,483,450
1,496,818
1,493,243
1,493,243
7/1/2014
1,041,527
1,020,543
1,008,810
997,553
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,336
7/1/2015
718,305
1,067,238
1,056,357
1,060,018
1,090,362
1,090,362
1,090,368
1,090,420
1,090,433
7/1/2016
919,829
1,249,791
1,257,422
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,196
7/1/2017
1,202,169
1,232,355
1,149,200
1,148,254
1,156,518
1,144,622
1,145,736
7/1/2018
812,003
1,079,028
1,080,187
1,078,690
1,128,598
1,166,364
7/1/2019
859,380
1,040,193
1,083,624
1,123,047
1,117,556
7/1/2020
1,334,418
1,374,718
1,350,396
1,327,943
7/1/2021
1,002,644
810,586
834,099
7/1/2022
949,608
1,089,913
7/1/2023
1,078,355
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
7/1/2005
0.337
0.870
0.944
1.024
0.990
0.991
0.991
0.991
0.999
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2006
0.589
0.942
1.003
1.032
1.014
1.013
1.018
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2007
0.775
0.965
1.011
0.912
0.867
0.860
0.917
0.942
0.976
0.959
0.954
0.967
0.967
1.063
1.063
1.000
1.000
7/1/2008
0.898
1.030
0.970
0.953
0.952
0.985
0.985
0.985
0.985
0.985
0.999
0.999
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2009
0.927
1.061
1.009
0.980
0.980
0.977
0.981
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2010
0.876
1.031
1.005
0.995
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2011
0.958
0.997
0.992
1.003
0.998
1.002
1.002
1.002
1.003
1.003
1.003
1.000
1.000
7/1/2012
0.514
0.919
0.909
0.831
0.923
0.971
0.975
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2013
0.743
1.029
0.990
0.991
0.999
0.995
0.991
0.993
1.002
1.000
1.000
7/1/2014
1.052
1.031
1.019
1.007
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2015
0.659
0.979
0.969
0.972
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2016
0.728
0.989
0.995
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2017
1.049
1.076
1.003
1.002
1.009
0.999
1.000
7/1/2018
0.688
0.914
0.915
0.914
0.956
0.988
7/1/2019
0.754
0.912
0.951
0.985
0.980
7/1/2020
0.981
1.011
0.993
0.976
7/1/2021
1.127
0.911
0.937
7/1/2022
0.805
0.924
7/1/2023
0.781
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 IL-UL on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
46

Appendix A
Page 7
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Rate of Paid Losses & ALAE to Exposure ($1,000 Payroll) ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
276,397
536,761
577,418
592,457
605,379
609,033
616,357
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
7/1/2005
200,706
505,966
552,607
594,741
603,672
614,644
622,212
629,386
640,201
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
7/1/2006
209,267
464,091
531,181
552,186
552,895
584,800
585,106
578,421
581,840
581,848
582,063
582,071
582,176
587,789
587,801
588,244
588,424
588,424
7/1/2007
351,283
616,773
702,322
645,614
595,827
595,827
597,997
636,245
658,716
673,524
679,204
686,940
691,745
695,966
750,292
763,087
763,087
7/1/2008
321,961
608,696
622,878
618,457
611,609
627,188
643,015
643,023
644,726
645,027
674,485
674,560
675,237
675,237
675,237
675,237
7/1/2009
807,943
1,268,270
1,274,279
1,258,475
1,269,316
1,268,437
1,268,781
1,299,694
1,301,130
1,299,762
1,300,357
1,299,626
1,299,526
1,299,823
1,299,965
7/1/2010
667,115
932,878
953,600
956,407
966,774
966,782
966,782
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
7/1/2011
656,562
1,042,286
1,107,176
1,140,809
1,152,179
1,153,721
1,157,939
1,158,827
1,159,929
1,160,847
1,160,847
1,160,847
1,161,297
7/1/2012
308,364
737,253
852,237
861,204
899,282
997,688
1,037,066
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
7/1/2013
515,792
1,169,619
1,422,414
1,433,603
1,478,801
1,479,343
1,479,586
1,482,601
1,493,243
1,493,243
1,493,243
7/1/2014
557,797
927,794
988,164
988,803
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,336
7/1/2015
418,716
903,262
998,672
999,797
1,034,850
1,040,344
1,040,350
1,040,402
1,040,415
7/1/2016
496,863
992,965
1,205,210
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,196
7/1/2017
603,228
1,112,325
1,098,076
1,098,692
1,108,047
1,110,635
1,111,749
7/1/2018
517,966
832,096
947,621
994,592
1,060,578
1,079,002
7/1/2019
513,953
927,549
970,464
1,080,251
1,084,488
7/1/2020
589,321
1,148,306
1,205,663
1,222,414
7/1/2021
593,767
777,014
812,505
7/1/2022
378,172
902,535
7/1/2023
351,339
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
3.34
6.49
6.98
7.17
7.32
7.37
7.45
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7/1/2005
2.23
5.61
6.13
6.59
6.69
6.81
6.90
6.98
7.10
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7/1/2006
2.03
4.51
5.16
5.37
5.37
5.68
5.69
5.62
5.66
5.66
5.66
5.66
5.66
5.71
5.71
5.72
5.72
5.72
7/1/2007
3.14
5.52
6.29
5.78
5.33
5.33
5.35
5.70
5.90
6.03
6.08
6.15
6.19
6.23
6.72
6.83
6.83
7/1/2008
2.67
5.04
5.16
5.13
5.07
5.20
5.33
5.33
5.34
5.35
5.59
5.59
5.60
5.60
5.60
5.60
7/1/2009
6.74
10.59
10.64
10.50
10.60
10.59
10.59
10.85
10.86
10.85
10.85
10.85
10.85
10.85
10.85
7/1/2010
5.86
8.19
8.38
8.40
8.49
8.49
8.49
8.49
8.49
8.49
8.49
8.49
8.49
8.49
7/1/2011
5.95
9.44
10.03
10.33
10.44
10.45
10.49
10.50
10.51
10.51
10.51
10.51
10.52
7/1/2012
2.59
6.19
7.16
7.23
7.55
8.38
8.71
8.98
8.98
8.98
8.98
8.98
7/1/2013
4.47
10.14
12.33
12.43
12.82
12.83
12.83
12.85
12.95
12.95
12.95
7/1/2014
4.67
7.76
8.27
8.27
8.29
8.29
8.29
8.29
8.29
8.29
7/1/2015
3.28
7.08
7.83
7.84
8.12
8.16
8.16
8.16
8.16
7/1/2016
3.87
7.73
9.38
9.84
9.84
9.84
9.84
9.84
7/1/2017
4.52
8.33
8.23
8.23
8.30
8.32
8.33
7/1/2018
3.82
6.14
6.99
7.34
7.82
7.96
7/1/2019
3.76
6.78
7.09
7.90
7.93
7/1/2020
4.21
8.20
8.61
8.73
7/1/2021
4.15
5.44
5.68
7/1/2022
2.36
5.64
7/1/2023
2.02
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
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47

Appendix A
Page 8
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Rate of Incurred Losses & ALAE to Exposure ($1,000 Payroll) ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
433,092
596,068
636,433
655,098
654,707
654,721
654,029
655,980
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,775
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
621,971
7/1/2005
218,697
565,416
613,104
665,312
642,903
643,810
643,968
643,968
648,952
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
649,576
7/1/2006
357,568
572,351
609,148
626,706
616,108
615,385
618,033
607,264
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
607,316
7/1/2007
591,135
736,617
771,326
696,254
661,761
655,981
699,833
718,703
744,997
732,151
728,026
737,820
737,820
811,227
811,227
763,087
763,087
7/1/2008
606,357
695,601
654,669
643,402
642,616
665,025
665,025
665,025
665,025
665,343
674,485
674,560
675,237
675,237
675,237
675,237
7/1/2009
1,209,165
1,384,432
1,317,306
1,278,754
1,278,229
1,275,301
1,280,550
1,306,043
1,306,081
1,305,964
1,306,294
1,305,417
1,305,287
1,304,928
1,304,910
7/1/2010
846,987
997,056
971,294
962,028
966,774
968,032
966,782
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
966,822
7/1/2011
1,113,010
1,158,045
1,151,669
1,164,497
1,158,747
1,163,992
1,163,992
1,163,992
1,164,307
1,164,313
1,164,313
1,160,847
1,161,297
7/1/2012
549,779
982,837
971,678
888,485
986,927
1,038,675
1,042,245
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
1,069,226
7/1/2013
1,110,080
1,536,783
1,478,594
1,480,078
1,491,735
1,486,217
1,479,586
1,483,450
1,496,818
1,493,243
1,493,243
7/1/2014
1,041,527
1,020,543
1,008,810
997,553
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,329
990,336
7/1/2015
718,305
1,067,238
1,056,357
1,060,018
1,090,362
1,090,362
1,090,368
1,090,420
1,090,433
7/1/2016
919,829
1,249,791
1,257,422
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,190
1,264,196
7/1/2017
1,202,169
1,232,355
1,149,200
1,148,254
1,156,518
1,144,622
1,145,736
7/1/2018
812,003
1,079,028
1,080,187
1,078,690
1,128,598
1,166,364
7/1/2019
859,380
1,040,193
1,083,624
1,123,047
1,117,556
7/1/2020
1,334,418
1,374,718
1,350,396
1,327,943
7/1/2021
1,002,644
810,586
834,099
7/1/2022
949,608
1,089,913
7/1/2023
1,078,355
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
5.24
7.21
7.70
7.92
7.92
7.92
7.91
7.93
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7.52
7/1/2005
2.42
6.27
6.80
7.38
7.13
7.14
7.14
7.14
7.19
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7.20
7/1/2006
3.48
5.56
5.92
6.09
5.99
5.98
6.01
5.90
5.90
5.90
5.90
5.90
5.90
5.90
5.90
5.90
5.90
5.90
7/1/2007
5.29
6.59
6.90
6.23
5.92
5.87
6.26
6.43
6.67
6.55
6.52
6.60
6.60
7.26
7.26
6.83
6.83
7/1/2008
5.03
5.76
5.43
5.33
5.33
5.51
5.51
5.51
5.51
5.51
5.59
5.59
5.60
5.60
5.60
5.60
7/1/2009
10.09
11.56
11.00
10.67
10.67
10.65
10.69
10.90
10.90
10.90
10.90
10.90
10.90
10.89
10.89
7/1/2010
7.44
8.76
8.53
8.45
8.49
8.50
8.49
8.49
8.49
8.49
8.49
8.49
8.49
8.49
7/1/2011
10.08
10.49
10.43
10.55
10.49
10.54
10.54
10.54
10.54
10.55
10.55
10.51
10.52
7/1/2012
4.62
8.25
8.16
7.46
8.29
8.72
8.75
8.98
8.98
8.98
8.98
8.98
7/1/2013
9.62
13.32
12.82
12.83
12.93
12.88
12.83
12.86
12.98
12.95
12.95
7/1/2014
8.71
8.54
8.44
8.35
8.29
8.29
8.29
8.29
8.29
8.29
7/1/2015
5.63
8.37
8.28
8.31
8.55
8.55
8.55
8.55
8.55
7/1/2016
7.16
9.73
9.79
9.84
9.84
9.84
9.84
9.84
7/1/2017
9.01
9.23
8.61
8.60
8.66
8.57
8.58
7/1/2018
5.99
7.96
7.97
7.96
8.32
8.60
7/1/2019
6.28
7.60
7.92
8.21
8.17
7/1/2020
9.53
9.81
9.64
9.48
7/1/2021
7.01
5.67
5.84
7/1/2022
5.94
6.81
7/1/2023
6.21
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
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48

Appendix A
Page 9
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Closed Claim Counts / Ultimate Claim Counts ‐ Excluding Closed Without Payments 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
76
138
139
139
140
140
141
141
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
7/1/2005
117
144
144
145
146
146
146
146
145
145
145
145
145
145
145
146
146
146
147
7/1/2006
93
124
129
132
133
132
133
133
133
133
134
134
134
134
134
134
134
134
7/1/2007
106
149
153
154
153
157
155
155
156
158
159
159
159
158
158
160
160
7/1/2008
116
155
159
158
162
161
161
161
161
161
163
163
163
163
163
163
7/1/2009
103
126
126
139
138
140
139
138
139
138
139
139
139
139
140
7/1/2010
101
132
149
151
151
151
151
151
151
151
152
152
152
152
7/1/2011
93
142
152
153
155
156
156
156
157
157
158
159
160
7/1/2012
71
108
119
129
129
129
130
131
131
131
131
131
7/1/2013
62
112
139
145
147
148
149
149
149
150
150
7/1/2014
62
122
132
140
141
141
141
141
141
141
7/1/2015
63
139
148
147
148
149
149
149
150
7/1/2016
56
108
123
126
128
131
131
131
7/1/2017
95
129
141
144
145
146
146
7/1/2018
94
137
144
151
152
152
7/1/2019
79
124
136
140
143
7/1/2020
73
116
126
128
7/1/2021
84
112
115
7/1/2022
72
114
7/1/2023
82
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
7/1/2005
0.796
0.980
0.980
0.986
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.993
0.993
0.993
1.000
7/1/2006
0.689
0.919
0.956
0.978
0.985
0.978
0.985
0.985
0.985
0.985
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.993
7/1/2007
0.658
0.925
0.950
0.957
0.950
0.975
0.963
0.963
0.969
0.981
0.988
0.988
0.988
0.981
0.981
0.994
0.994
7/1/2008
0.703
0.939
0.964
0.958
0.982
0.976
0.976
0.976
0.976
0.976
0.988
0.988
0.988
0.988
0.988
0.988
7/1/2009
0.725
0.887
0.887
0.979
0.972
0.986
0.979
0.972
0.979
0.972
0.979
0.979
0.979
0.979
0.986
7/1/2010
0.660
0.863
0.974
0.987
0.987
0.987
0.987
0.987
0.987
0.987
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.993
7/1/2011
0.578
0.882
0.944
0.950
0.963
0.969
0.969
0.969
0.975
0.975
0.981
0.988
0.994
7/1/2012
0.526
0.800
0.881
0.956
0.956
0.956
0.963
0.970
0.970
0.970
0.970
0.970
7/1/2013
0.403
0.727
0.903
0.942
0.955
0.961
0.968
0.968
0.968
0.974
0.974
7/1/2014
0.434
0.853
0.923
0.979
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
7/1/2015
0.412
0.908
0.967
0.961
0.967
0.974
0.974
0.974
0.980
7/1/2016
0.421
0.812
0.925
0.947
0.962
0.985
0.985
0.985
7/1/2017
0.638
0.866
0.946
0.966
0.973
0.980
0.980
7/1/2018
0.595
0.867
0.911
0.956
0.962
0.962
7/1/2019
0.534
0.838
0.919
0.946
0.966
7/1/2020
0.541
0.859
0.933
0.948
7/1/2021
0.712
0.949
0.975
7/1/2022
0.567
0.898
7/1/2023
0.543
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 CC-UC on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
49

Appendix A
Page 10
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Reported Claim Counts / Ultimate Claim Counts ‐ Excluding Closed Without Payments 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
135
141
142
142
142
142
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
7/1/2005
120
147
147
147
147
147
155
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
7/1/2006
104
135
135
135
135
139
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
7/1/2007
154
159
160
160
167
160
160
160
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
7/1/2008
164
165
166
177
165
165
165
165
165
164
165
165
165
165
165
165
7/1/2009
140
144
147
144
144
144
144
143
142
142
142
142
142
142
142
7/1/2010
148
161
153
153
153
154
153
153
153
153
153
153
153
153
7/1/2011
167
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
7/1/2012
128
133
134
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
7/1/2013
146
154
154
154
154
154
154
154
154
154
154
7/1/2014
138
140
142
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
7/1/2015
137
153
153
153
153
153
153
153
153
7/1/2016
125
131
132
133
133
133
133
133
7/1/2017
145
150
150
149
149
149
149
7/1/2018
145
159
158
158
158
158
7/1/2019
126
147
148
148
148
7/1/2020
128
134
135
135
7/1/2021
115
118
118
7/1/2022
121
126
7/1/2023
140
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
7/1/2005
0.816
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.054
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2006
0.770
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.030
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2007
0.957
0.988
0.994
0.994
1.037
0.994
0.994
0.994
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2008
0.994
1.000
1.006
1.073
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
0.994
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2009
0.986
1.014
1.035
1.014
1.014
1.014
1.014
1.007
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2010
0.967
1.052
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.007
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2011
1.037
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2012
0.948
0.985
0.993
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2013
0.948
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2014
0.965
0.979
0.993
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2015
0.895
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2016
0.940
0.985
0.992
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2017
0.973
1.007
1.007
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2018
0.918
1.006
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2019
0.851
0.993
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2020
0.948
0.993
1.000
1.000
7/1/2021
0.975
1.000
1.000
7/1/2022
0.953
0.992
7/1/2023
0.927
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50

Appendix A
Page 11
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Rate of Reported Count Frequency to Exposure (Payroll (per $1M)) ‐ Excluding Closed Without Payments 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
135
141
142
142
142
142
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
7/1/2005
120
147
147
147
147
147
155
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
147
7/1/2006
104
135
135
135
135
139
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
7/1/2007
154
159
160
160
167
160
160
160
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
7/1/2008
164
165
166
177
165
165
165
165
165
164
165
165
165
165
165
165
7/1/2009
140
144
147
144
144
144
144
143
142
142
142
142
142
142
142
7/1/2010
148
161
153
153
153
154
153
153
153
153
153
153
153
153
7/1/2011
167
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
161
7/1/2012
128
133
134
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
135
7/1/2013
146
154
154
154
154
154
154
154
154
154
154
7/1/2014
138
140
142
143
143
143
143
143
143
143
7/1/2015
137
153
153
153
153
153
153
153
153
7/1/2016
125
131
132
133
133
133
133
133
7/1/2017
145
150
150
149
149
149
149
7/1/2018
145
159
158
158
158
158
7/1/2019
126
147
148
148
148
7/1/2020
128
134
135
135
7/1/2021
115
118
118
7/1/2022
121
126
7/1/2023
140
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
1.633
1.705
1.717
1.717
1.717
1.717
1.729
1.729
1.729
1.729
1.729
1.729
1.729
1.729
1.729
1.729
1.729
1.729
1.729
1.729
7/1/2005
1.330
1.630
1.630
1.630
1.630
1.630
1.718
1.630
1.630
1.630
1.630
1.630
1.630
1.630
1.630
1.630
1.630
1.630
1.630
7/1/2006
1.011
1.312
1.312
1.312
1.312
1.351
1.312
1.312
1.312
1.312
1.312
1.312
1.312
1.312
1.312
1.312
1.312
1.312
7/1/2007
1.379
1.423
1.432
1.432
1.495
1.432
1.432
1.432
1.441
1.441
1.441
1.441
1.441
1.441
1.441
1.441
1.441
7/1/2008
1.359
1.367
1.376
1.467
1.367
1.367
1.367
1.367
1.367
1.359
1.367
1.367
1.367
1.367
1.367
1.367
7/1/2009
1.169
1.202
1.227
1.202
1.202
1.202
1.202
1.194
1.185
1.185
1.185
1.185
1.185
1.185
1.185
7/1/2010
1.300
1.414
1.344
1.344
1.344
1.353
1.344
1.344
1.344
1.344
1.344
1.344
1.344
1.344
7/1/2011
1.512
1.458
1.458
1.458
1.458
1.458
1.458
1.458
1.458
1.458
1.458
1.458
1.458
7/1/2012
1.075
1.117
1.125
1.134
1.134
1.134
1.134
1.134
1.134
1.134
1.134
1.134
7/1/2013
1.266
1.335
1.335
1.335
1.335
1.335
1.335
1.335
1.335
1.335
1.335
7/1/2014
1.155
1.171
1.188
1.196
1.196
1.196
1.196
1.196
1.196
1.196
7/1/2015
1.074
1.200
1.200
1.200
1.200
1.200
1.200
1.200
1.200
7/1/2016
0.973
1.020
1.028
1.035
1.035
1.035
1.035
1.035
7/1/2017
1.086
1.124
1.124
1.116
1.116
1.116
1.116
7/1/2018
1.070
1.173
1.165
1.165
1.165
1.165
7/1/2019
0.921
1.075
1.082
1.082
1.082
7/1/2020
0.914
0.957
0.964
0.964
7/1/2021
0.805
0.826
0.826
7/1/2022
0.756
0.788
7/1/2023
0.806
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51

Appendix A
Page 12
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Paid Losses & ALAE / Incurred Losses & ALAE ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
0.638
0.901
0.907
0.904
0.925
0.930
0.942
0.948
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2005
0.918
0.895
0.901
0.894
0.939
0.955
0.966
0.977
0.987
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2006
0.585
0.811
0.872
0.881
0.897
0.950
0.947
0.953
0.958
0.958
0.958
0.958
0.959
0.968
0.968
0.969
0.969
0.969
7/1/2007
0.594
0.837
0.911
0.927
0.900
0.908
0.854
0.885
0.884
0.920
0.933
0.931
0.938
0.858
0.925
1.000
1.000
7/1/2008
0.531
0.875
0.951
0.961
0.952
0.943
0.967
0.967
0.969
0.969
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2009
0.668
0.916
0.967
0.984
0.993
0.995
0.991
0.995
0.996
0.995
0.995
0.996
0.996
0.996
0.996
7/1/2010
0.788
0.936
0.982
0.994
1.000
0.999
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2011
0.590
0.900
0.961
0.980
0.994
0.991
0.995
0.996
0.996
0.997
0.997
1.000
1.000
7/1/2012
0.561
0.750
0.877
0.969
0.911
0.961
0.995
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2013
0.465
0.761
0.962
0.969
0.991
0.995
1.000
0.999
0.998
1.000
1.000
7/1/2014
0.536
0.909
0.980
0.991
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2015
0.583
0.846
0.945
0.943
0.949
0.954
0.954
0.954
0.954
7/1/2016
0.540
0.795
0.958
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2017
0.502
0.903
0.956
0.957
0.958
0.970
0.970
7/1/2018
0.638
0.771
0.877
0.922
0.940
0.925
7/1/2019
0.598
0.892
0.896
0.962
0.970
7/1/2020
0.442
0.835
0.893
0.921
7/1/2021
0.592
0.959
0.974
7/1/2022
0.398
0.828
7/1/2023
0.326
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52

Appendix A
Page 13
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Closed Claim Counts / Reported Claim Counts ‐ Excluding Closed Without Payments
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
0.563
0.979
0.979
0.979
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
7/1/2005
0.975
0.980
0.980
0.986
0.993
0.993
0.942
0.993
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.993
0.993
0.993
1.000
7/1/2006
0.894
0.919
0.956
0.978
0.985
0.950
0.985
0.985
0.985
0.985
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.993
7/1/2007
0.688
0.937
0.956
0.963
0.916
0.981
0.969
0.969
0.969
0.981
0.988
0.988
0.988
0.981
0.981
0.994
0.994
7/1/2008
0.707
0.939
0.958
0.893
0.982
0.976
0.976
0.976
0.976
0.982
0.988
0.988
0.988
0.988
0.988
0.988
7/1/2009
0.736
0.875
0.857
0.965
0.958
0.972
0.965
0.965
0.979
0.972
0.979
0.979
0.979
0.979
0.986
7/1/2010
0.682
0.820
0.974
0.987
0.987
0.981
0.987
0.987
0.987
0.987
0.993
0.993
0.993
0.993
7/1/2011
0.557
0.882
0.944
0.950
0.963
0.969
0.969
0.969
0.975
0.975
0.981
0.988
0.994
7/1/2012
0.555
0.812
0.888
0.956
0.956
0.956
0.963
0.970
0.970
0.970
0.970
0.970
7/1/2013
0.425
0.727
0.903
0.942
0.955
0.961
0.968
0.968
0.968
0.974
0.974
7/1/2014
0.449
0.871
0.930
0.979
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
0.986
7/1/2015
0.460
0.908
0.967
0.961
0.967
0.974
0.974
0.974
0.980
7/1/2016
0.448
0.824
0.932
0.947
0.962
0.985
0.985
0.985
7/1/2017
0.655
0.860
0.940
0.966
0.973
0.980
0.980
7/1/2018
0.648
0.862
0.911
0.956
0.962
0.962
7/1/2019
0.627
0.844
0.919
0.946
0.966
7/1/2020
0.570
0.866
0.933
0.948
7/1/2021
0.730
0.949
0.975
7/1/2022
0.595
0.905
7/1/2023
0.586
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53

Appendix A
Page 14
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Average Paid Losses & ALAE ‐ Limited to $75,000 & Excluding Closed Without Payments 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
3,637
3,890
4,154
4,262
4,324
4,350
4,371
4,410
4,348
4,348
4,348
4,348
4,348
4,349
4,349
4,349
4,349
4,349
4,349
4,349
7/1/2005
1,715
3,514
3,838
4,102
4,135
4,210
4,262
4,311
4,415
4,480
4,480
4,480
4,480
4,480
4,480
4,449
4,449
4,449
4,419
7/1/2006
2,250
3,743
4,118
4,183
4,157
4,430
4,399
4,349
4,375
4,375
4,344
4,344
4,345
4,386
4,387
4,390
4,391
4,391
7/1/2007
3,314
4,139
4,590
4,192
3,894
3,795
3,858
4,105
4,223
4,263
4,272
4,320
4,351
4,405
4,749
4,769
4,769
7/1/2008
2,776
3,927
3,917
3,914
3,775
3,896
3,994
3,994
4,005
4,006
4,138
4,138
4,143
4,143
4,143
4,143
7/1/2009
7,844
10,066
10,113
9,054
9,198
9,060
9,128
9,418
9,361
9,419
9,355
9,350
9,349
9,351
9,285
7/1/2010
6,605
7,067
6,400
6,334
6,402
6,403
6,403
6,403
6,403
6,403
6,361
6,361
6,361
6,361
7/1/2011
7,060
7,340
7,284
7,456
7,433
7,396
7,423
7,428
7,388
7,394
7,347
7,301
7,258
7/1/2012
4,343
6,826
7,162
6,676
6,971
7,734
7,977
8,162
8,162
8,162
8,162
8,162
7/1/2013
8,319
10,443
10,233
9,887
10,060
9,996
9,930
9,950
10,022
9,955
9,955
7/1/2014
8,997
7,605
7,486
7,063
7,024
7,024
7,024
7,024
7,024
7,024
7/1/2015
6,646
6,498
6,748
6,801
6,992
6,982
6,982
6,983
6,936
7/1/2016
8,873
9,194
9,798
10,033
9,876
9,650
9,650
9,650
7/1/2017
6,350
8,623
7,788
7,630
7,642
7,607
7,615
7/1/2018
5,510
6,074
6,581
6,587
6,977
7,099
7/1/2019
6,506
7,480
7,136
7,716
7,584
7/1/2020
8,073
9,899
9,569
9,550
7/1/2021
7,069
6,938
7,065
7/1/2022
5,252
7,917
7/1/2023
4,285
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54

Appendix A
Page 15
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Average Incurred Losses & ALAE ‐ Limited to $75,000 & Excluding Closed Without Payments 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
3,208
4,227
4,482
4,613
4,611
4,611
4,574
4,587
4,348
4,348
4,348
4,348
4,348
4,349
4,349
4,349
4,349
4,349
4,349
4,349
7/1/2005
1,822
3,846
4,171
4,526
4,373
4,380
4,155
4,381
4,415
4,419
4,419
4,419
4,419
4,419
4,419
4,419
4,419
4,419
4,419
7/1/2006
3,438
4,240
4,512
4,642
4,564
4,427
4,578
4,498
4,499
4,499
4,499
4,499
4,499
4,499
4,499
4,499
4,499
4,499
7/1/2007
3,839
4,633
4,821
4,352
3,963
4,100
4,374
4,492
4,627
4,548
4,522
4,583
4,583
5,039
5,039
4,740
4,740
7/1/2008
3,697
4,216
3,944
3,635
3,895
4,030
4,030
4,030
4,030
4,057
4,088
4,088
4,092
4,092
4,092
4,092
7/1/2009
8,637
9,614
8,961
8,880
8,877
8,856
8,893
9,133
9,198
9,197
9,199
9,193
9,192
9,190
9,190
7/1/2010
5,723
6,193
6,348
6,288
6,319
6,286
6,319
6,319
6,319
6,319
6,319
6,319
6,319
6,319
7/1/2011
6,665
7,193
7,153
7,233
7,197
7,230
7,230
7,230
7,232
7,232
7,232
7,210
7,213
7/1/2012
4,295
7,390
7,251
6,581
7,311
7,694
7,720
7,920
7,920
7,920
7,920
7,920
7/1/2013
7,603
9,979
9,601
9,611
9,687
9,651
9,608
9,633
9,720
9,696
9,696
7/1/2014
7,547
7,290
7,104
6,976
6,925
6,925
6,925
6,925
6,925
6,925
7/1/2015
5,243
6,975
6,904
6,928
7,127
7,127
7,127
7,127
7,127
7/1/2016
7,359
9,540
9,526
9,505
9,505
9,505
9,505
9,505
7/1/2017
8,291
8,216
7,661
7,706
7,762
7,682
7,690
7/1/2018
5,600
6,786
6,837
6,827
7,143
7,382
7/1/2019
6,820
7,076
7,322
7,588
7,551
7/1/2020
10,425
10,259
10,003
9,837
7/1/2021
8,719
6,869
7,069
7/1/2022
7,848
8,650
7/1/2023
7,703
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55

Appendix A
Page 16
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Average Open ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
2,656
19,769
19,672
20,880
24,664
22,844
18,836
17,103
7/1/2005
5,997
19,817
20,166
35,285
39,231
29,166
2,417
14,581
4,376
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7/1/2006
13,482
9,842
12,994
24,840
31,607
4,369
16,464
14,422
12,738
12,734
25,254
25,246
25,140
19,527
19,515
19,072
18,893
18,893
7/1/2007
4,997
11,984
9,858
8,440
4,710
20,051
20,367
16,492
17,256
19,542
24,411
25,440
23,037
38,420
20,312
0
0
7/1/2008
5,925
8,691
4,542
1,313
10,336
9,459
5,502
5,500
5,075
6,772
0
0
0
0
0
0
7/1/2009
10,844
6,453
2,049
4,056
1,486
1,716
2,354
1,270
1,650
1,551
1,979
1,931
1,921
1,702
2,473
7/1/2010
3,827
2,213
4,424
2,811
0
417
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7/1/2011
6,168
6,093
4,944
2,961
1,095
2,054
1,211
1,033
1,094
867
1,155
0
0
7/1/2012
4,235
9,823
7,963
4,547
14,607
6,831
1,036
0
0
0
0
0
7/1/2013
7,075
8,742
3,745
5,164
1,848
1,146
0
170
715
0
0
7/1/2014
6,365
5,153
2,065
2,917
0
0
0
0
0
0
7/1/2015
4,049
11,713
11,537
10,037
11,102
12,504
12,504
12,504
16,673
7/1/2016
6,130
11,166
5,801
0
0
0
0
0
7/1/2017
11,979
5,716
5,680
9,912
12,118
11,329
11,329
7/1/2018
5,765
11,224
9,469
12,014
11,337
14,560
7/1/2019
7,350
4,898
9,430
5,349
6,614
7/1/2020
13,547
12,578
16,081
15,076
7/1/2021
13,190
5,595
7,198
7/1/2022
11,662
15,615
7/1/2023
12,535
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56

Appendix A
Page 17
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Average Unpaid Losses & ALAE ‐ Limited to $75,000 & Excluding Closed Without Payments 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
7/1/2005
14,962
47,870
32,323
27,417
45,904
34,932
27,363
20,189
4,687
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
0
0
0
0
0
7/1/2006
9,477
13,020
12,689
18,377
27,211
7,505
11,105
14,448
12,738
12,734
25,254
25,246
25,140
19,527
19,515
19,072
18,893
18,893
7/1/2007
7,487
12,193
7,596
16,782
20,907
41,815
27,515
21,140
20,874
29,854
41,941
38,074
35,671
22,374
4,265
0
0
7/1/2008
7,210
6,654
8,726
8,111
21,209
12,012
8,055
8,053
7,628
7,552
376
338
0
0
0
0
7/1/2009
12,743
2,290
1,914
15,478
8,898
18,237
12,043
1,304
1,260
1,287
1,517
1,761
1,795
1,696
2,473
7/1/2010
5,764
1,616
3,306
5,207
24
20
20
(0)
0
0
0
0
0
0
7/1/2011
7,423
6,264
6,013
2,561
1,520
1,515
672
494
342
112
150
225
0
7/1/2012
11,888
12,295
13,562
34,670
28,324
11,923
6,432
0
0
0
0
0
7/1/2013
10,624
7,705
4,722
6,627
2,063
2,317
2,731
2,128
0
0
0
7/1/2014
5,340
2,978
197
511
3
3
3
3
3
0
7/1/2015
7,464
13,369
18,352
15,106
11,116
12,522
12,521
12,508
16,673
7/1/2016
9,965
10,849
5,899
1
1
3
3
0
7/1/2017
10,046
1,671
5,958
9,409
9,422
11,700
11,329
7/1/2018
10,344
16,567
16,598
26,487
19,904
16,833
7/1/2019
9,073
8,852
14,128
7,469
11,102
7/1/2020
12,430
11,142
17,149
19,655
7/1/2021
8,713
18,831
25,832
7/1/2022
14,579
21,343
7/1/2023
14,908
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57

Appendix A
Page 18
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
IBNR / Case Reserve ‐ Limited to $75,000 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
Accident 
Period 
Beginning
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
7/1/2004
7/1/2005
23.95
1.42
0.60
(0.22)
0.17
0.20
0.26
0.38
0.07
7/1/2006
1.68
0.32
(0.02)
(0.26)
(0.14)
(0.26)
(0.33)
0.00
(0.00)
(0.00)
(0.00)
(0.00)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7/1/2007
0.72
0.22
(0.12)
1.32
1.54
1.78
0.62
0.54
0.21
0.53
0.72
0.50
0.55
(0.42)
(0.79)
7/1/2008
0.24
(0.23)
0.65
1.28
1.05
0.27
0.46
0.46
0.50
0.49
7/1/2009
0.24
(0.68)
(0.29)
1.29
2.99
4.31
2.07
(0.18)
(0.24)
(0.17)
(0.23)
(0.09)
(0.07)
(0.00)
0.00
7/1/2010
0.67
(0.47)
(0.25)
0.85
(0.97)
7/1/2011
0.11
0.03
0.22
(0.14)
0.39
(0.26)
(0.45)
(0.52)
(0.69)
(0.87)
(0.87)
7/1/2012
2.15
0.35
0.82
6.63
0.94
0.75
5.21
7/1/2013
0.64
(0.12)
0.26
0.28
0.12
1.02
11.53
(1.00)
7/1/2014
(0.11)
(0.33)
(0.89)
(0.82)
7/1/2015
1.24
0.14
0.59
0.51
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
7/1/2016
0.81
0.06
0.13
7/1/2017
(0.09)
(0.72)
(0.07)
(0.05)
(0.22)
0.03
0.00
7/1/2018
1.25
0.41
0.75
1.20
0.76
0.16
7/1/2019
0.81
0.89
0.50
0.40
0.68
7/1/2020
0.03
(0.07)
0.07
0.30
7/1/2021
(0.28)
2.37
2.59
7/1/2022
0.40
0.48
7/1/2023
0.41
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58

Appendix B
Page 1
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Increased Limit Factors ‐ Losses & ALAE 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
Limit
Trended
Incurred
Losses
Fitted
NCCI
Prior
Selected
75,000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000
500,000
1.689
1.707
1.571
1.687
1.687
600,000
1.761
1.774
1.615
1.769
1.767
750,000
1.848
1.858
1.665
1.869
1.853
1,000,000
1.951
1.965
1.727
1.986
1.958
1,250,000
2.033
2.048
1.762
2.072
2.040
2,250,000
2.136
2.267
1.873
2.207
2.202
3,000,000
2.136
2.374
1.920
2.244
2.239
Notes:
(1) assumed 2.5% annual severity trend 
(4) from previous Oliver Wyman study
(2) fitted using a logarithmic distribution
(5) selected
(3) NCCI = National Council on Compensation Insurance
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59

Appendix B
Page 2
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Increased Limit Factors ‐ Losses & ALAE 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
ILFs
Limits ($,000)
Trended
Fitted
NCCI
Prior
Selected
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60

Appendix C
Page 1
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Data Summary 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Exposures
Paid Losses & ALAE
Incurred Losses & ALAE
Claim Counts
Policy Period
Self‐Insured 
Retention (SIR) 
*
($1,000 Payroll)
Limited
Paid to
75,000
Paid
from Limit
to SIR
Paid
Excess 
of SIR
Unlimited
Paid
Limited
Incurred to
75,000
Incurred
from Limit
to SIR
Incurred
Excess 
of SIR
Unlimited
Incurred
Reported
(ex. CWOP)
Closed
With
Payment
Closed
Without
Payment
1/1/2003
to 6/30/2005
500,000
206,142
1,875,899
666,554
116,529
2,658,982
1,886,883
684,047
283,030
2,853,960
355
352
28
7/1/2005
to 6/30/2006
500,000
90,201
649,576
333,909
0
983,484
649,576
333,909
0
983,484
147
147
12
7/1/2006
to 6/30/2007
500,000
102,877
588,424
11,852
0
600,275
607,316
11,852
0
619,168
135
134
7
7/1/2007
to 6/30/2008
500,000
111,710
763,087
50,193
0
813,279
763,087
237,929
0
1,001,015
161
160
6
7/1/2008
to 6/30/2009
500,000
120,668
675,237
497,628
0
1,172,864
675,237
622,433
0
1,297,670
165
163
14
7/1/2009
to 6/30/2010
500,000
119,800
1,299,965
202,904
0
1,502,869
1,304,910
345,048
0
1,649,958
142
140
4
7/1/2010
to 6/30/2011
500,000
113,843
966,822
489,739
662,314
2,118,875
966,822
489,739
1,242,557
2,699,118
153
152
10
7/1/2011
to 6/30/2012
500,000
110,414
1,161,297
766,279
0
1,927,576
1,161,297
807,333
0
1,968,630
161
160
12
7/1/2012
to 6/30/2013
600,000
119,088
1,069,226
1,115,901
0
2,185,127
1,069,226
1,263,175
28,185
2,360,586
135
131
19
7/1/2013
to 6/30/2014
600,000
115,348
1,493,243
969,278
0
2,462,520
1,493,243
1,308,597
389,364
3,191,204
154
150
8
7/1/2014
to 6/30/2015
600,000
119,528
990,336
607,359
0
1,597,694
990,336
1,091,893
339,213
2,421,442
143
141
9
7/1/2015
to 6/30/2016
600k / 1M
127,517
1,040,415
1,868,903
0
2,909,318
1,090,433
2,077,102
1,399,051
4,566,586
153
150
9
7/1/2016
to 6/30/2017
600k / 1M
128,452
1,264,196
384,468
0
1,648,664
1,264,196
469,570
0
1,733,766
133
131
9
7/1/2017
to 6/30/2018
600k / 1M
133,497
1,111,749
694,856
0
1,806,605
1,145,736
1,589,731
386,506
3,121,973
149
146
15
7/1/2018
to 6/30/2019
600k / 1.25M
135,570
1,079,002
103,443
0
1,182,445
1,166,364
747,089
0
1,913,453
158
152
8
7/1/2019
to 6/30/2020
600k / 1.25M
136,800
1,084,488
295,939
0
1,380,427
1,117,556
1,079,478
0
2,197,035
148
143
14
7/1/2020
to 6/30/2021
750k / 2.25M
140,084
1,222,414
388,827
0
1,611,240
1,327,943
1,532,316
0
2,860,259
135
128
5
7/1/2021
to 6/30/2022
1M / 3M
142,931
812,505
207,754
0
1,020,259
834,099
1,447,850
0
2,281,949
118
115
5
7/1/2022
to 6/30/2023
1.5M / 3M
159,979
902,535
154,331
0
1,056,866
1,089,913
647,705
0
1,737,618
126
114
9
7/1/2023
to 6/30/2024
1.5M / 3M
173,629
351,339
0
0
351,339
1,078,355
281,424
0
1,359,780
140
82
11
TOTALS
2,608,077
20,401,753
9,810,115
778,844
30,990,712
21,682,528
17,068,220
4,067,905
42,818,653
3,111
2,991
214
Notes:
(1) through (12) from City of Chandler
* Where two SIR's are displayed, the first is for non public safety employees and the second is for public safety employees
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61

Appendix C
Page 2
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Large Loss Listing (Incurred ≥ $75,000) 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Claim
Number
Accident
Date
Claim
Status
Self‐Insured 
Retention (SIR) 
Limited
Paid to
75,000
Paid
from Limit
to SIR
Paid
Excess 
of SIR
Unlimited
Paid
Prior Unlimited
Paid
Unlimited
Paid Change
Limited
Incurred to
75,000
Incurred
from Limit
to SIR
Incurred
Excess 
of SIR
Unlimited
Incurred
Prior Unlimited
Incurred
Unlimited
Incurred Change
CN‐03‐0500003
1/3/2003
Closed
500,000
75,000
3,602
0
78,602
78,602
0
75,000
3,602
0
78,602
78,602
0
CN‐03‐0500013
2/12/2003
Open
500,000
75,000
425,000
116,529
616,529
597,440
19,089
75,000
425,000
283,030
783,030
783,030
0
CN‐03‐0500045
5/8/2003
Open
500,000
75,000
165,243
0
240,243
239,969
274
75,000
178,709
0
253,709
253,709
0
CN‐04‐0500041
10/2/2003
Closed
500,000
75,000
4,813
0
79,813
79,813
0
75,000
4,813
0
79,813
79,813
0
CN‐04‐0500099
3/8/2004
Open
500,000
64,016
0
0
64,016
63,967
49
75,000
4,028
0
79,028
79,028
0
CN‐04‐0500125
4/28/2004
Closed
500,000
75,000
38,134
0
113,134
113,134
0
75,000
38,134
0
113,134
113,134
0
CN‐05‐0500010
7/28/2004
Closed
500,000
75,000
29,762
0
104,762
104,762
0
75,000
29,762
0
104,762
104,762
0
1/1/2003 to 6/30/2005  ;  7 claims  ;  3 open
514,016
666,554
116,529
1,297,099
1,277,687
19,412
525,000
684,047
283,030
1,492,077
1,492,077
0
CN‐06‐0500060
11/16/2005
Closed
500,000
75,000
85,341
0
160,341
160,341
0
75,000
85,341
0
160,341
160,341
0
CN‐06‐0500138
5/23/2006
Closed
500,000
75,000
248,567
0
323,567
320,891
2,677
75,000
248,567
0
323,567
365,105
(41,538)
7/1/2005 to 6/30/2006  ;  2 claims  ;  0 open
150,000
333,909
0
483,909
481,232
2,677
150,000
333,909
0
483,909
525,446
(41,538)
CN‐07‐0500083
2/22/2007
Closed
500,000
75,000
11,852
0
86,852
86,852
0
75,000
11,852
0
86,852
86,852
0
7/1/2006 to 6/30/2007  ;  1 claim  ;  0 open
75,000
11,852
0
86,852
86,852
0
75,000
11,852
0
86,852
86,852
0
CN‐08‐0500045
9/7/2007
Open
500,000
75,000
26,184
0
101,184
94,988
6,197
75,000
213,920
0
288,920
288,920
0
CN‐08‐0500153
5/16/2008
Closed
500,000
75,000
24,009
0
99,009
99,009
0
75,000
24,009
0
99,009
99,009
0
7/1/2007 to 6/30/2008  ;  2 claims  ;  1 open
150,000
50,193
0
200,193
193,996
6,197
150,000
237,929
0
387,929
387,929
0
CN‐09‐0500034
9/3/2008
Closed
500,000
75,000
44,596
0
119,596
119,596
0
75,000
44,596
0
119,596
119,596
0
CN‐09‐0500085
12/18/2008
Open
500,000
75,000
350,781
0
425,781
422,490
3,292
75,000
397,998
0
472,998
472,998
0
CN‐09‐0500107
2/17/2009
Open
500,000
75,000
102,250
0
177,250
176,677
573
75,000
179,839
0
254,839
254,839
0
7/1/2008 to 6/30/2009  ;  3 claims  ;  2 open
225,000
497,628
0
722,628
718,763
3,865
225,000
622,433
0
847,433
847,433
0
CN‐10‐0500009
7/17/2009
Open
500,000
75,000
36,854
0
111,854
108,570
3,284
75,000
178,998
0
253,998
253,998
0
CN‐10‐0500033
9/4/2009
Closed
500,000
75,000
7,866
0
82,866
82,866
0
75,000
7,866
0
82,866
82,866
0
CN‐10‐0500067
12/5/2009
Closed
500,000
75,000
35,293
0
110,293
110,293
0
75,000
35,293
0
110,293
110,293
0
CN‐10‐0500085
2/8/2010
Closed
500,000
75,000
18,413
0
93,413
93,413
0
75,000
18,413
0
93,413
93,413
0
CN‐10‐0500103
3/8/2010
Closed
500,000
75,000
69,773
0
144,773
141,225
3,548
75,000
69,773
0
144,773
247,136
(102,363)
CN‐10‐0500104
3/11/2010
Closed
500,000
75,000
34,705
0
109,705
109,705
0
75,000
34,705
0
109,705
109,705
0
7/1/2009 to 6/30/2010  ;  6 claims  ;  1 open
450,000
202,904
0
652,904
646,073
6,831
450,000
345,048
0
795,048
897,411
(102,363)
WC‐001
7/28/2010
Open
500,000
75,000
425,000
662,314
1,162,314
1,132,710
29,604
75,000
425,000
1,242,557
1,742,557
1,753,417
(10,861)
CN‐11‐0500036
8/22/2010
Closed
500,000
75,000
37,715
0
112,715
112,715
0
75,000
37,715
0
112,715
112,715
0
CN‐11‐0500057
10/2/2010
Closed
500,000
75,000
1,945
0
76,945
76,945
0
75,000
1,945
0
76,945
76,945
0
CN‐11‐0500103
2/11/2011
Closed
500,000
75,000
25,079
0
100,079
100,079
0
75,000
25,079
0
100,079
100,079
0
7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011  ;  4 claims  ;  1 open
300,000
489,739
662,314
1,452,054
1,422,450
29,604
300,000
489,739
1,242,557
2,032,296
2,043,157
(10,861)
CN‐12‐0500036
9/9/2011
Closed
500,000
75,000
246,800
0
321,800
321,800
0
75,000
246,800
0
321,800
321,800
0
CN‐12‐0500073
11/13/2011
Open
500,000
75,000
277,954
0
352,954
348,105
4,849
75,000
319,007
0
394,007
394,007
0
CN‐10‐000002
3/23/2012
Closed
500,000
75,000
167,334
0
242,334
242,294
40
75,000
167,334
0
242,334
847,758
(605,424)
CN‐12‐0500139
4/19/2012
Closed
500,000
75,000
74,192
0
149,192
149,192
0
75,000
74,192
0
149,192
149,192
0
7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012  ;  4 claims  ;  1 open
300,000
766,279
0
1,066,279
1,061,390
4,889
300,000
807,333
0
1,107,333
1,712,757
(605,424)
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
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62

Appendix C
Page 3
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Large Loss Listing (Incurred ≥ $75,000) 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Claim
Number
Accident
Date
Claim
Status
Self‐Insured 
Retention (SIR) 
Limited
Paid to
75,000
Paid
from Limit
to SIR
Paid
Excess 
of SIR
Unlimited
Paid
Prior Unlimited
Paid
Unlimited
Paid Change
Limited
Incurred to
75,000
Incurred
from Limit
to SIR
Incurred
Excess 
of SIR
Unlimited
Incurred
Prior Unlimited
Incurred
Unlimited
Incurred Change
CN‐13‐005122
9/30/2012
Open
600,000
75,000
16,065
0
91,065
91,065
0
75,000
65,501
0
140,501
140,501
0
CN‐13‐005159
1/16/2013
Closed
600,000
75,000
65,458
0
140,458
140,458
0
75,000
65,458
0
140,458
140,458
0
CN‐13‐005205
3/19/2013
Open
600,000
75,000
177,815
0
252,815
237,682
15,133
75,000
254,972
0
329,972
329,972
0
CN‐13‐005252
5/2/2013
Open
600,000
75,000
521,693
0
596,693
586,996
9,697
75,000
525,000
28,185
628,185
628,185
0
CN‐13‐005314
5/8/2013
Closed
600,000
75,000
170,745
0
245,745
245,745
0
75,000
170,745
0
245,745
245,745
0
CN‐13‐005281
5/20/2013
Open
600,000
75,000
8,764
0
83,764
83,593
171
75,000
26,137
0
101,137
101,137
0
CN‐13‐005273
5/22/2013
Closed
600,000
75,000
155,360
0
230,360
230,360
0
75,000
155,360
0
230,360
230,360
0
7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013  ;  7 claims  ;  4 open
525,000
1,115,901
0
1,640,901
1,615,901
25,001
525,000
1,263,175
28,185
1,816,360
1,816,360
0
CN‐14‐005049
8/20/2013
Closed
600,000
75,000
467
0
75,467
75,467
0
75,000
467
0
75,467
75,467
0
CN‐14‐005093
10/17/2013
Open
600,000
75,000
184,923
0
259,923
259,789
134
75,000
197,469
0
272,469
272,469
0
CN‐14‐005197
2/19/2014
Open
600,000
75,000
74,432
0
149,432
148,628
804
75,000
84,515
0
159,515
159,515
0
CN‐14‐005202
2/28/2014
Closed
600,000
75,000
38,249
0
113,249
113,249
0
75,000
38,249
0
113,249
113,249
0
CN‐14‐005319
5/12/2014
Open
600,000
75,000
174,488
0
249,488
234,185
15,304
75,000
462,897
0
537,897
409,002
128,895
CN‐14‐005344
6/13/2014
Open
600,000
75,000
496,718
0
571,718
562,362
9,356
75,000
525,000
389,364
989,364
989,364
0
7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014  ;  6 claims  ;  4 open
450,000
969,278
0
1,419,278
1,393,681
25,597
450,000
1,308,597
389,364
2,147,961
2,019,066
128,895
CN‐15‐005102
10/1/2014
Closed
600,000
75,000
41,893
0
116,893
116,893
0
75,000
41,893
0
116,893
116,893
0
CN‐15‐005139
10/28/2014
Open
600,000
75,000
297,967
0
372,967
338,760
34,207
75,000
525,000
166,640
766,640
761,640
5,000
CN‐15‐005142
10/31/2014
Open
600,000
75,000
267,498
0
342,498
308,443
34,055
75,000
525,000
172,573
772,573
772,573
0
7/1/2014 to 6/30/2015  ;  3 claims  ;  2 open
225,000
607,359
0
832,359
764,096
68,262
225,000
1,091,893
339,213
1,656,106
1,651,106
5,000
CN‐16‐005088
10/12/2015
Closed
1,000,000
75,000
189,102
0
264,102
257,839
6,263
75,000
189,102
0
264,102
634,550
(370,448)
CN‐16‐005145
10/30/2015
Open
1,000,000
24,982
0
0
24,982
24,982
0
75,000
20,280
0
95,280
95,280
0
CN‐16‐005314
4/23/2016
Open
1,000,000
75,000
853,531
0
928,531
874,156
54,375
75,000
925,000
666,787
1,666,787
1,666,787
0
CN‐16‐005324
5/5/2016
Closed
1,000,000
75,000
17,720
0
92,720
92,720
0
75,000
17,720
0
92,720
92,720
0
CN‐16‐005347
5/18/2016
Open
1,000,000
75,000
808,549
0
883,549
862,013
21,536
75,000
925,000
732,264
1,732,264
1,732,264
0
7/1/2015 to 6/30/2016  ;  5 claims  ;  3 open
324,982
1,868,903
0
2,193,885
2,111,711
82,174
375,000
2,077,102
1,399,051
3,851,153
4,221,601
(370,448)
CN‐17‐005049
8/16/2016
Open
1,000,000
75,000
22,268
0
97,268
97,268
0
75,000
43,014
0
118,014
118,014
0
CN‐17‐005102
9/29/2016
Closed
1,000,000
75,000
31,553
0
106,553
106,553
0
75,000
31,553
0
106,553
106,553
0
CN‐17‐005110
10/14/2016
Closed
600,000
75,000
1,270
0
76,270
76,270
0
75,000
1,270
0
76,270
76,270
0
CN‐17‐005137
11/9/2016
Open
1,000,000
75,000
89,002
0
164,002
160,795
3,207
75,000
153,358
0
228,358
228,358
0
CN‐17‐005202
12/29/2016
Closed
1,000,000
75,000
20,852
0
95,852
95,852
0
75,000
20,852
0
95,852
95,852
0
CN‐17‐005440
4/3/2017
Closed
1,000,000
75,000
119,323
0
194,323
194,323
0
75,000
119,323
0
194,323
194,323
0
CN‐17‐005633
4/20/2017
Closed
1,000,000
75,000
80,289
0
155,289
155,289
0
75,000
80,289
0
155,289
155,289
0
CN‐17‐005508
5/10/2017
Closed
1,000,000
75,000
19,912
0
94,912
94,912
0
75,000
19,912
0
94,912
94,912
0
7/1/2016 to 6/30/2017  ;  8 claims  ;  2 open
600,000
384,468
0
984,468
981,261
3,207
600,000
469,570
0
1,069,570
1,069,570
0
CN‐18‐005172
9/28/2017
Closed
1,000,000
75,000
21,574
0
96,574
96,574
0
75,000
21,574
0
96,574
96,574
0
CN‐18‐005210
10/26/2017
Closed
1,000,000
75,000
2,131
0
77,131
77,131
0
75,000
2,131
0
77,131
77,131
0
CN‐18‐005237
11/9/2017
Closed
1,000,000
75,000
7,283
0
82,283
82,283
0
75,000
7,283
0
82,283
82,283
0
CN‐18‐005238
11/14/2017
Closed
1,000,000
75,000
40,763
0
115,763
115,763
0
75,000
40,763
0
115,763
115,763
0
CN‐18‐005344
12/8/2017
Open
1,000,000
41,013
0
0
41,013
41,013
0
75,000
18,086
0
93,086
93,086
0
CN‐18‐005439
3/6/2018
Open
1,000,000
75,000
184,756
0
259,756
239,955
19,801
75,000
574,894
0
649,894
649,894
0
CN‐18‐005455
3/6/2018
Open
1,000,000
75,000
438,349
0
513,349
476,340
37,009
75,000
925,000
386,506
1,386,506
1,386,506
0
7/1/2017 to 6/30/2018  ;  7 claims  ;  3 open
491,013
694,856
0
1,185,869
1,129,058
56,810
525,000
1,589,731
386,506
2,501,236
2,501,236
0
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 LargeLosses on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
63

Appendix C
Page 4
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Large Loss Listing (Incurred ≥ $75,000) 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)
Claim
Number
Accident
Date
Claim
Status
Self‐Insured 
Retention (SIR) 
Limited
Paid to
75,000
Paid
from Limit
to SIR
Paid
Excess 
of SIR
Unlimited
Paid
Prior Unlimited
Paid
Unlimited
Paid Change
Limited
Incurred to
75,000
Incurred
from Limit
to SIR
Incurred
Excess 
of SIR
Unlimited
Incurred
Prior Unlimited
Incurred
Unlimited
Incurred Change
CN‐19‐005032
7/20/2018
Open
600,000
75,000
19,530
0
94,530
94,153
377
75,000
26,367
0
101,367
101,367
0
CN‐19‐005524
8/26/2018
Open
1,250,000
36,682
0
0
36,682
32,091
4,591
75,000
126,976
0
201,976
37,941
164,035
CN‐19‐005106
9/4/2018
Closed
1,250,000
75,000
10,054
0
85,054
85,054
0
75,000
10,054
0
85,054
85,054
0
CN‐19‐005453
4/8/2019
Open
600,000
46,521
0
0
46,521
44,646
1,875
75,000
10,729
0
85,729
85,729
0
CN‐19‐005526
5/2/2019
Open
1,250,000
75,000
70,898
0
145,898
128,543
17,355
75,000
165,336
0
240,336
240,336
0
CN‐19‐005522
5/29/2019
Open
1,250,000
75,000
2,961
0
77,961
64,603
13,358
75,000
407,627
0
482,627
482,627
0
7/1/2018 to 6/30/2019  ;  6 claims  ;  5 open
383,203
103,443
0
486,646
449,090
37,557
450,000
747,089
0
1,197,089
1,033,054
164,035
CN‐20‐005092
8/9/2019
Closed
1,250,000
75,000
26,811
0
101,811
100,355
1,457
75,000
26,811
0
101,811
115,233
(13,422)
CN‐20‐005053
9/5/2019
Closed
1,250,000
75,000
133,938
0
208,938
208,938
0
75,000
133,938
0
208,938
208,938
0
CN‐20‐005093
9/25/2019
Open
1,250,000
75,000
37,741
0
112,741
101,962
10,779
75,000
253,993
0
328,993
114,664
214,329
CN‐20‐005089
10/10/2019
Open
1,250,000
75,000
5,793
0
80,793
80,279
514
75,000
20,517
0
95,517
95,517
0
CN‐20‐005167
1/27/2020
Closed
1,250,000
75,000
27,464
0
102,464
102,464
0
75,000
27,464
0
102,464
109,114
(6,651)
CN‐20‐005223
1/27/2020
Open
1,250,000
75,000
64,192
0
139,192
121,948
17,244
75,000
605,021
0
680,021
680,021
0
CN‐22‐005178
4/21/2020
Open
1,250,000
52,934
0
0
52,934
49,162
3,772
75,000
11,734
0
86,734
86,734
0
7/1/2019 to 6/30/2020  ;  7 claims  ;  4 open
502,934
295,939
0
798,873
765,107
33,766
525,000
1,079,478
0
1,604,478
1,410,221
194,257
CN‐21‐005075
7/15/2020
Open
2,250,000
75,000
37,949
0
112,949
104,570
8,379
75,000
262,090
0
337,090
337,090
0
CN‐21‐005129
12/7/2020
Closed
2,250,000
75,000
84,398
0
159,398
159,398
0
75,000
84,398
0
159,398
159,398
0
CN‐21‐005148
12/27/2020
Open
2,250,000
75,000
266,480
0
341,480
302,369
39,110
75,000
1,085,690
0
1,160,690
1,160,690
0
CN‐21‐005154
1/21/2021
Open
2,250,000
21,848
0
0
21,848
21,848
0
75,000
7,785
0
82,785
82,785
0
CN‐21‐005168
2/11/2021
Open
2,250,000
60,483
0
0
60,483
47,252
13,231
75,000
92,353
0
167,353
167,353
0
7/1/2020 to 6/30/2021  ;  5 claims  ;  4 open
307,331
388,827
0
696,158
635,437
60,721
375,000
1,532,316
0
1,907,316
1,907,316
0
CN‐22‐005123
12/3/2021
Open
3,000,000
75,000
199,511
0
274,511
234,266
40,245
75,000
1,439,607
0
1,514,607
1,514,607
0
CN‐22‐005133
1/8/2022
Closed
3,000,000
75,000
8,244
0
83,244
83,244
0
75,000
8,244
0
83,244
83,244
0
7/1/2021 to 6/30/2022  ;  2 claims  ;  1 open
150,000
207,754
0
357,754
317,510
40,245
150,000
1,447,850
0
1,597,850
1,597,850
0
CN‐23‐300252
11/19/2022
Open
3,000,000
54,095
0
0
54,095
0
54,095
75,000
4,170
0
79,170
7,650
71,520
CN‐23‐300144
11/23/2022
Open
3,000,000
52,647
0
0
52,647
279
52,368
75,000
16,135
0
91,135
4,537
86,598
CN‐23‐300172
11/23/2022
Open
3,000,000
73,058
0
0
73,058
26,033
47,025
75,000
35,066
0
110,066
90,924
19,142
CN‐23‐300168
1/24/2023
Open
3,000,000
75,000
27,859
0
102,859
9,284
93,575
75,000
109,620
0
184,620
148,449
36,171
CN‐23‐300169
1/26/2023
Open
1,500,000
75,000
126,472
0
201,472
135,425
66,047
75,000
171,859
0
246,859
242,926
3,933
CN‐23‐300232
4/18/2023
Open
3,000,000
69,143
0
0
69,143
1,283
67,860
75,000
172,192
0
247,192
4,615
242,577
CN‐23‐300314
5/16/2023
Open
3,000,000
42,654
0
0
42,654
0
42,654
75,000
138,663
0
213,663
0
213,663
7/1/2022 to 6/30/2023  ;  7 claims  ;  7 open
441,597
154,331
0
595,928
172,305
423,623
525,000
647,705
0
1,172,705
499,101
673,604
CN‐24‐300025
7/19/2023
Open
1,500,000
16,538
0
0
16,538
0
16,538
75,000
42,858
0
117,858
0
117,858
CN‐24‐300065
8/29/2023
Open
1,500,000
18,686
0
0
18,686
0
18,686
75,000
50,821
0
125,821
0
125,821
CN‐24‐300142
11/9/2023
Open
3,000,000
5,308
0
0
5,308
0
5,308
75,000
37,451
0
112,451
0
112,451
CN‐24‐300165
12/21/2023
Open
3,000,000
36,522
0
0
36,522
0
36,522
75,000
53,779
0
128,779
0
128,779
CN‐24‐300187
1/13/2024
Open
3,000,000
7,455
0
0
7,455
0
7,455
75,000
81,621
0
156,621
0
156,621
CN‐24‐300191
1/19/2024
Open
3,000,000
12,903
0
0
12,903
0
12,903
75,000
14,894
0
89,894
0
89,894
7/1/2023 to 6/30/2024  ;  6 claims  ;  6 open
97,414
0
0
97,414
0
97,414
450,000
281,424
0
731,424
0
731,424
TOTALS  ;  98 claims  ;  54 open
6,662,491
9,810,115
778,844
17,251,450
16,223,598
1,027,852
7,350,000
17,068,220
4,067,905
28,486,125
27,719,544
766,581
Notes:
(1) through (12) from City of Chandler
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 LargeLosses on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
64

Appendix D
City of Chandler 
Workers' Compensation 
Losses & ALAE Reconciliation 
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024 
 
Paid
Incurred
(1)
Loss Run 1 ‐ Unlimited
30,990,293
42,818,234
(2)
Manual Adjustment
419
419
(3)
Amounts Excess of SIR
778,844
4,067,905
(4)
OW Analysis ‐ Retained
30,211,869
38,750,748
(5)
Difference ‐ Retained
0
0
Notes:
(1) from City of Chandler; paid and incurred losses provided on a net of recoveries basis
(2) from City of Chandler; adjusted for negative incurred losses
(3) from City of Chandler
(4) from Appendix A, Page 1
(5) = (1) + (2) ‐ (3) ‐ (4)
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 DataReconcile on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
65

Appendix E
Page 1
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 Chart1 on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1/1/2003
(500)
7/1/2005
(500)
7/1/2006
(500)
7/1/2007
(500)
7/1/2008
(500)
7/1/2009
(500)
7/1/2010
(500)
7/1/2011
(500)
7/1/2012
(600)
7/1/2013
(600)
7/1/2014
(600)
7/1/2015
(600)
7/1/2016
(600)
7/1/2017
(600)
7/1/2018
(600)
7/1/2019
(600)
7/1/2020
(750)
7/1/2021
(1,000)
7/1/2022
(1,500)
7/1/2023
(1,500)
Loss Cost
Frequency & Severity
PY Start 
SIR ($K)
City of Chandler
Workers' Compensation
Ultimate Frequency, Severity & Loss Cost ‐ Limited to SIR
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024
Frequency (per $100)
Severity
Loss Cost ($1,000 Payroll)
66

Appendix E
Page 2
 Oliver Wyman Actuarial Consulting, Inc.
 Chart2 on 9/12/2024 at 11:44 AM
 
City of Chandler
Workers' Compensation
Layer Distribution
Based on Data as of June 30, 2024
<  979
979 ‐ 4,066
4,066 ‐ 19,481
19,481 ‐ 43,936
> 43,936
50%
25%
15%
5%
5%
Reported Count Distribution
1%
4%
10%
11%
74%
Unlimited Incurred Dollar Distribution
67

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