MAG 2025 Region in Review Presentation
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The MAG Region in Review 2025 Data Trends Shaping Our Future 302 North First Avenue, Suite 300 Phoenix, Arizona 85003 MAG@azmag.gov (602) 254-6300 About MAG The Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) provides a forum for local governments working together on issues that affect the lives of everyone in the greater Phoenix region. MAG is a regional agency that conducts planning and makes policy decisions in a number of core areas. These include transportation, air quality, human services, and economy and growth, all with a focus on efficient and effective operations. Spanning 10,600 square miles, the MAG regional planning area brings together a diverse coalition of local governments. MAG member agencies include 27 cities and towns, three Native nations, Maricopa County, portions of Pinal County, and the Arizona Department of Transportation - working collaboratively to shape the future of our region. The MAG Region in Review report offers an in-depth look at the trends shaping our dynamic region. It provides insights into demographics, housing patterns, workforce and economic shifts. The report is intended to inform policymakers, business leaders, and community stakeholders by offering a clear picture of current conditions and emerging challenges. Key findings show that the MAG region’s population continues to grow, becoming more ethnically diverse while also aging. Housing development is strong, with expanded multifamily options responding to shifting needs. Although housing affordability pressures have increased, the region’s economy is strengthening, supported by ongoing transportation investments that help drive regional prosperity. Analysis from this report highlights a region in constant change. Looking ahead, it will be crucial to continue strategic planning, including ongoing transportation investment planning, to ensure sustainable growth for future generations. Founded in the spirit of cooperation, MAG members believe that by uniting, they can solve common problems, take an active role in long range regional issues, and address concerns that affect communities across the region. About This Report The MAG Region The Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) planning area includes all of Maricopa County and parts of Pinal County, as shown in the MPO boundary on the map above. For the purposes of this report, the MAG region refers to the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes the entirety of Maricopa and Pinal Counties. Data will represent this area unless otherwise noted. Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) boundary MAG Region County boundary Region Highlights Contents Demographics 6 Discover population factors including growth rates, age, diversity, education, and components of population change. Housing 10 Explore the region’s housing landscape, including trends in construction, costs, vacancy rates, and home ownership versus renting. Workforce and Economy 14 Gain insight into workforce and economic trends, including job growth, wage patterns, income levels, and employment challenges facing the region. Working in the Region 18 Understand the dynamics of working in the region, including major industries, commute patterns, foreign investment, and commercial real estate trends. 5,070,000 2023 Population 21% Population Increase Since 2010 Note: Some metrics in this report include comparisons with peer regions. These regions were selected based on size, population, proximity, and megaregion designation. The peer names represent their respective metropolitan statistical area. $448,700 2024 Median Single-Family Home Sale Price 2.1million 2024 Total Housing Units 3.1% Unemployment Rate December 2024 2.5million 2024 Total Jobs 26minutes 2025 Average Commute Time 145,000 2024 Business Locations SOLD (22 percent increase since 2010) (Increase of $279,000 since 2011) (47 percent increase since 2010) (Improvement from 12.6 percent peak in 2020) (50 percent increase since 2010) (unchanged since 2018) 6 DEMOGRAPHICS The MAG region continues to grow, although at a slightly slower pace than in past years. Growth is projected at one percent per year through 2050, a slight slowdown from the two percent annual growth rate over the past 25 years. At the same time, the population is aging, with the median age rising from 35 in 2010 to 38 in 2023, shaping future workforce, housing, and service needs. The region’s growth rate has slowed, although it continues to outpace the nation. The MAG region’s population is expected to grow to 7.1 million by 2050. Figure 3: MAG Region Age Distribution Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-year Estimates 11% decrease in population under 5 since 2010. 67% increase in population 65 and over since 2010. 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Female Male 2023 2010 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 0M 2M 4M 6M 8M 10M Arizona MAG Region 2023: 7,430,000 2050: 9,960,000 2023: 5,070,000 2050: 7,180,000 population 0.5% 1% 1.5% 2% 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 U.S. Arizona MAG Region 0.7 1.5 2.0 1.0 annual growth rate Figure 1: Annual Population Growth Rate Comparisons Source: Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity, MAG, and U.S. Census Bureau Estimates Figure 2: Population Growth Source: Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity, MAG, and U.S. Census Bureau Estimates The region is aging: An aging population combined with fewer births reshaped the region’s population between 2010 and 2023. percent of total population Population Trends 38years 2023 Median Age 7 DEMOGRAPHICS Figure 5: Domestic Migration into the MAG region Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2022 5-year State-to-County Migration Estimates Population Change −50k 0k 50k 100k 150k 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Births Deaths Net Migration Population Growth 13,500 83,200 93,800 Figure 4: Components of Annual Population Growth Source: Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity and MAG Substantial Population Growth Since the Pandemic With a net population gain of 195,000 residents, the MAG region ranked third in the nation for metropolitan area growth from 2020 to 2023. Population change is driven by births, deaths, and migration. While natural increase still contributes to growth, migration—both domestic and international—plays a key role in the region. Most new residents moved from other states, while 13 percent came from abroad, mainly Asia (31 percent) and Central America (28 percent).1 Rank State moved from Percent of domestic movers 1 California 23.5% 2 Washington 7.8% 3 Texas 6.3% 4 Illinois 5.3% 5 Colorado 4.6% 6 Oregon 3.7% 7 New York 3.3% 8 Utah 3.1% 9 Minnesota 3.0% 10 Florida 2.8% 3rd Highest Growth in the Nation Since 2020 According to 2022 five-year estimates, domestic migration accounted for 87 percent of new MAG region residents, with California leading the way. For the last several years, migration has been the primary driver of population growth in the region. 8 DEMOGRAPHICS The MAG region, along with peers, is becoming more diverse. The MAG region minority population increased by 7 percentage points since 2010. 48% 2023 Minority Population The region’s population continues to become more diverse, with increasing racial and ethnic diversity shaping the community and economy. At the same time, language accessibility has improved, with a slight decline in the percentage of residents with limited English proficiency. Diversity in the MAG region (2023) 0 20 40 60 80 100 Houston San Diego Atlanta MAG REGION Denver Salt Lake Minneapolis 61% 52% 49% 41% 34% 25% 21% 2010 0 20 40 60 80 100 68% 58% 58% 48% 40% 33% 29% 2023 Youth Diversity Leading the Way While minorities made up 48 percent of the total population in the MAG region in 2023, the population under age 18 was even more diverse, with minority youth comprising 62 percent.2 White Hispanic Black or African American Asian and Pacific Islander Two or More Races Native American other 53% 31% 6% 5% 4% 1% 0.5% Since 2010, 150,000 more people have identified as multiracial Figure 7: Percent Minority Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey One-Year Estimates A Diverse Population Figure 6: Race/Ethnicity Distribution Note: Race categories exclude Hispanic origin ethnicity (i.e. non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, etc.) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey One-Year Estimates 9 DEMOGRAPHICS School enrollment, academic performance, and high school graduation rates are key indicators of how well youth are prepared for higher education and future opportunities. As the population ages and birth rates decline, the share of high school students rose from 30 percent to 33 percent, while K-8 enrollment dropped from 70 percent to 66 percent between 2015 and 2024.3 English Language Assessment (ELA) passing rates in Maricopa County have steadily improved since 2015. Youth Education Graduation rates in both the MAG region and Arizona trail the U.S. average by 10 percentage points. 78% 2023 Graduation Rate 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 Math passing rate 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 Pinal County Maricopa County Arizona ELA passing rate Math passing rates were disrupted by the pandemic, and have yet to recover. Assessment testing and performance are key indicators of student success and areas for growth. In 2024, Maricopa County had passing rates of 43 percent for English Language Assessment and 35 percent for math. Arizona’s goal is 72 percent proficiency in third-grade reading by 2030.4 At the current rate of improvement, significant changes will be necessary to meet this target. Figure 8: High School Graduation Rate Comparisons Source: National Center for Education Statistics; Arizona Department of Education Figure 10: School Math Assessment Passing Rates Source: Arizona Department of Education Note: Data not available at MSA level. Testing scores show percent passing for k-12 schools, all students and all grades. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 U.S. MAG Region Arizona high school graduation rate 10points percentage point gap Figure 9: School ELA Passing Rates Source: Arizona Department of Education 74% 2024 Single Family Housing Units 26% 2024 Multifamily Housing Units The region’s 2.1 million housing units offer a wide range of living options.5 Multifamily construction is increasing to support growth and changing lifestyles. Trends in new construction, ownership, renting, and development near major corridors help shape the housing landscape and future planning needs. Multifamily units are commonly built near major transportation corridors, such as freeways and high capacity transit corridors, with 80 percent of all multifamily units in the MAG region located within two miles of these corridors. In comparison, just over half (52 percent) of single-family homes fall within the same distance. This pattern has become more pronounced in recent years. Since 2020, only 31 percent of newly built single-family homes have been located within two miles of a major transportation corridor. This suggests a shift in land use priorities, with areas near key transportation access points increasingly reserved for higher-intensity uses such as mixed-use and commercial developments.6 Housing and Regional Transportation Connections 10 HOUSING Evolving Housing Patterns units constructed 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 Multifamily Single family Built-to-rent For the first time ever, in 2023, multifamily construction outpaced single-family home development with single story build-to-rent construction also showing significant growth. Figure 12: Residential Construction by Housing Type Source: Maricopa County and Pinal County parcel assessor data. 11 HOUSING Housing Vacancy Trends Housing vacancy rates offer insight into market trends, availability, and demand. In the MAG region, seasonal vacancies and short-term rentals play a significant role in overall vacancies. According to Maricopa County Assessor data, approximately 25 percent of all housing units are investor-owned or second homes, further contributing to vacancy trends as these properties could potentially be vacant for extended periods. 8.6% 2023 Overall Vacancy Rate 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% U.S. Arizona Atlanta Denver Houston Minneapolis MAG Region Salt Lake San Diego percent vacant Seasonal Housing Trends The higher percentage of seasonally vacant housing in the MAG region, likely influenced by the snowbird population, contributes to the region’s overall higher vacancy rates. Over the past decade, an estimated 35 percent to 45 percent of vacant housing units in the region have been used for seasonal, recreational, or occasional purposes, such as second homes. In 2023, this accounted for nearly 68,000 homes.7 Housing vacancy rates in the region have declined but remain slightly higher than our peers. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 600 2,600 4,700 12,800 18,700 21,100 20,200 22,000 30,000 36,300 33,100 Popularity for short-term rentals started growing in 2017, becoming a notable part of the region’s housing vacancy landscape. Figure 14: Short-Term Rental Growth Source: AirDNA, LLC short-term rental data Figure 13: Housing Vacancy Trends Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey One-Year Estimates SOLD The housing market is shaped partly by a combination of rising sales prices, higher interest rates, and the financial situations of buyers. As home prices have risen and interest rates increased, many buyers find it difficult to afford a home. The average age of home buyers has increased from 43 years old in 2010 to 50 years old in 2024.8 50years Median Age of Home Buyers 12 HOUSING Market Trends and Affordability Since 2021, the household income needed to afford a median-priced home has been much higher than the median household income. $0k $25k $50k $75k $100k $125k 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Household income needed to afford a median- priced home Median household income household income Figure 15: Comparison of Median Income to Median Home Prices Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 1-Year American Community Survey Estimates; Information Market; MAG Note: The income required to afford a median-priced home is calculated by comparing median incomes with median sales prices, factoring in standard mortgage terms such as down payments, interest rates, taxes, insurance, and PMI. It is assumed that the buyer will not spend more than 30% of their income on housing payments. 2020 median household income data are unavailable—lines have been connected for visual continuity and do not represent actual 2020 values. 0k 50k 100k 150k 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Homes sold 152k 91k 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 30 year mortgage rate 2.98% 7.0% $0k $250k $500k Median home sale price $481k $449k Rising mortgage rates and high prices have slowed home sales in the region. Figure 16: Trends in Home Prices, Mortgage Rates, and Sales Sources: Information Market; Freddie Mac Note: Sale prices adjusted for inflation—shown in 2024 dollars. 13 HOUSING Renting Challenges for RENT Rent costs remain a challenge for many households, despite recent stabilization in costs, as reflected by rising eviction filings. Unlike homeowners, who often benefit from low interest rates and stable mortgage payments, renters face ongoing uncertainty. As a result, the gap in housing cost burden has widened, with renters more likely to spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing. $1,600 2024 Median Asking Rent Per Unit $ 500 $ 1000 $ 1500 $ 2000 $ 2500 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Arizona Atlanta Houston Minneapolis Salt Lake San Diego Denver MAG Region asking rent per unit Multifamily median rent prices have stabilized since the peak in 2021, showing a slight decrease More than half of all renters spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing. After a period of stability, multifamily vacancy rates surged, driven by rising rent prices and increase in supply. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Atlanta Houston Minneapolis Salt Lake San Diego Denver MAG Region apartment vacancy rate Eviction filings in Maricopa County continue to rise and have reached the highest number ever recorded. Figure 17: Multifamily Median Asking Rent Source: Costar Group Inflation adjusted to 2023 dollars Figure 18: Multifamily Vacancy Rate Comparisons Source: Costar Group Figure 19: Housing Eviction Filings in Maricopa County Source: Maricopa County Justice Courts Renters Owners 50% 44% 52% 34% 20% 21% 2010 2019 2023 Figure 20: Households Spending More Than 30 Percent of Income on Housing Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1-Year American Community Survey Estimates 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 62k 63k 64k 65k 65k 62k 61k 63k 66k 69k 38k 41k 67k 83k 87k 14 WORKFORCE AND ECONOMY The region’s labor force is evolving, with job growth, shifting participation, and changing occupations. While top occupations saw increases, material moving occupations like truck drivers and warehouse workers experienced the largest growth since 2010 (143 percent), highlighting expansion in the logistics sector. 2.5million Total Jobs in 20249 42% Projected Increase in Jobs by 205010 The Effects of an Aging Workforce The MAG region’s lower labor force participation rate is primarily due to an aging population. However, since 2013, participation has increased to match the U.S. rate, with the participation rate among women increasing slightly faster than men.11 (47 percent increase since 2010) Labor Force Trends The region’s job market continues to expand, with top occupations experiencing significant job growth since 2010 Labor force participation rates in the MAG region align with the U.S., but are lower than the peer regions. 2010 2023 Management, business, and financial Office and admin support Education, legal, arts, and community service Computer, engineering, and science Sales and related Healthcare practitioner and technical Construction and extraction Production Installation, maintenance, and repair Transportation 430k 223k 169k 165k 165k 121k 96k 90k 67k 66k Figure 21: Top Occupation Categories Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Figure 22: Labor Force Participation Rates Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Salt Lake Denver Minneapolis Atlanta Houston San Diego MAG Region U.S. 73% 72% 71% 68% 67% 67% 64% 64% 15 WORKFORCE AND ECONOMY Unemployment rates, poverty levels, and inflation trends are important indicators for the region’s economic health and cost of living. The MAG region now reports lower rates across all three indicators, reflecting stronger economic conditions. Economic Indicators 3.1% Unemployment December 2024 The unemployment rate in the region has recovered and remains steady since the COVID period. Since 2010, the poverty rate in the MAG region has improved by 5.3 percentage points, showing notable progress compared to peer regions. The annual inflation rate in the region was among the highest in the nation in 2021 and is now one of the lowest. 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0% 5% 10% 15% MAG Region U.S. unemployment rate Figure 25: Poverty Rate Comparisons Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Figure 23: Unemployment Rates Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Figure 24: Inflation Rates Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2024 2023 2022 1.6% 2.7% 9.5% U.S. Inflation MAG Region Inflation 2010 Poverty Rate 2023 Poverty Rate Arizona San Diego Atlanta Denver Houston Minneapolis Salt Lake United States MAG Region 17.4 10.1 14.8 12.5 8.6 13.9 10.9 8.1 13.1 9.3 15.3 12.5 16.3 10.9 16 WORKFORCE AND ECONOMY Median household income in the region has risen. This rise is partly due to a growing share of households with multiple workers, which reached 39 percent in 2023—an increase of seven percentage points from 2010.12 This shift reflects evolving household structures and financial dynamics across the region. $85,700 2023 Median Household Income Household Income The region’s median household income has steadily increased since 2010, and was 10 percent higher than both the state and the nation in 2023. Figure 26: Median Household Income Comparisons Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates. Inflation adjusted to 2023 dollars. Figure 27: Median Household Income Growth Rates Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates From 2013 to 2023, household income in the MAG region grew by 27 percent, outpacing both the state and national averages and ranking just behind San Diego among peer regions. US Arizona MAG Region Atlanta Denver Houston Minneapolis Salt Lake San Diego 14% 22% 27% 26% 20% 6% 9% 18% 30% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 $ 0k $ 20k $ 40k $ 60k $ 80k $ 100k MAG Region Arizona U.S median household income $8,000 Difference in the MAG region’s median household income compared to the U.S. and Arizona 17 WORKFORCE AND ECONOMY Worker earnings are a key economic indicator of purchasing power, job stability, and financial well-being. Challenges for the region include wages not keeping up with inflation, occupational shifts, and pay disparities. Education also impacts earnings, with workers holding a bachelor’s degree earning 70 percent more than those with a high school diploma in 2023, down from 85 percent in 2010.13 Worker Earnings Trends $59,000 2023 Median Earnings Per Worker The gender pay gap in the region has remained around 18 percent since 2010, with minor fluctuations. Four of the five occupations with the largest pay changes (2010-2023) are lower-wage jobs, likely due to minimum wage hikes. 82% Women’s 2023 earnings ratio $52,250 Women’s 2023 median earnings 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% $63,850 Men’s 2023 median earnings The earnings ratio: Women’s share of men’s earnings The pay gap between men and women Figure 30: Comparison of Wages to Household Income Source (all charts on this page): U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates; Inflation adjusted to 2023 dollars. Food prep and serving related Building and grounds maintenance Sales and related Personal care and service Material moving 21.1% 12.2% 11.6% 11.1% 9.5% When adjusted for inflation, worker earnings have increased more slowly compared to household income over the same period. $ 0k $ 20k $ 40k $ 60k $ 80k $ 100k 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 $76k $86k $56k $59k Household income increased 12.6% since 2017 Median household income Median worker earnings Earnings only increased 5.8% since 2017 Figure 28: Occupations with Highest Wage Growth Figure 29: Gender Wage Gap Trends 18 WORKING IN THE REGION The region’s employment landscape is shaped by its largest employers and industries. These sectors, along with new key employers, highlight the evolving workforce and reflect the region’s economic growth. 145,000 2024 Business Locations14 Employers Rank Employer Employees 1 State of Arizona 30,900 2 Banner Health 29,800 3 Amazon 25,600 4 Walmart 19,800 5 Frys Food Stores 15,500 6 Maricopa County 15,300 7 Intel Corporation 13,000 8 Wells Fargo 12,300 9 Maricopa County Community College Dist 11,700 10 Arizona State University 11,000 Top Employers in the MAG Region, 2023 Between 2020 and 2023, the largest new companies and those that opened new locations contributed to significant growth The majority of jobs in the MAG region fall within five major industries. Source (all charts on this page): Greater Phoenix Economic Council (GPEC) and MAG Employer Database (5+ Employees) Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Amazon The RealReal Hello Fresh Honeywell 2,600 2,000 800 800 600 Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Manufacturing Educational Services Finance and Insurance Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Construction Public Administration Waste Management, Remediation, and Administrative Services 261,000 239,900 205,800 161,900 149,300 122,500 122,300 110,600 101,800 100,300 51% of jobs are in the top 5 industries Figure 31: Top Industries in the Region Figure 32: New Company Locations Figure 33: Largest Employers 19 WORKING IN THE REGION Travel times and access to high-capacity transportation commuting options, like freeways and high capacity transit corridors, play a key role in the region’s work-life balance. Shorter commute times and transportation options offer greater flexibility and efficiency for today’s workforce. Commuting to Work 26minutes 2023 Average Commute Time15 The MAG region offers strong access to high capacity transportation corridors, helping connect people to jobs across the region. Sixty percent of jobs are located within one mile of high-capacity transportation corridors, and 80 percent are within two miles. By 2050, even after adding more than 2 million new residents and 1 million new jobs, the average commute distance is projected to be 13 miles, with commute times remaining under 30 minutes—positioning the region to continue supporting efficient travel as the economy grows. Regional Commuting Connections Commuting modes in the region, compared to the U.S., show higher car pool and work from home rates. U.S. MAG Region Drive alone Work From Home Carpool Taxi, motorcycle, other Walk Public Transportation Bicycle 65.5% 19.4% 10.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% Working from home drastically changed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, rates have gradually declined. Figure 35: Commuting Modes in the U.S. and MAG Region Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% US AZ MAG Region work from home Source: 2023 MAG Employer Database (5+ Employees), Fall 2024 MAG Travel Demand Model Figure 34: Work from Home Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates 20 WORKING IN THE REGION Canada United Kingdom Japan Germany France 19,100 14,000 10,500 9,700 6,000 Since announcing a $12 billion investment in 2020, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has announced plans for new fabrication facilities and the investment is expected to reach $165 billion—creating well over 6,000 high tech jobs. Once complete, Taiwan will be one of the top foreign direct investors, while TSMC will be the largest foreign- owned employer. Global Connections Rank Employer Country Employees 1 Circle K Canada 3,900 2 Petsmart U.K. 2,900 3 Burger King Canada 2,600 4 TSMC Taiwan 2,600 5 Farmers Insurance Switzerland 2,100 6 JBS Brazil 1,800 7 NXP USA Inc Netherlands 1,800 8 Deloitte U.K. 1,600 9 BMO Harris Bank Canada 1,200 10 Swire Coca Cola U.K. 1,200 Top Foreign-owned Employers in the MAG Region, 2023 75% of all export dollars come from these top five commodities Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is vital to the economy, with global businesses establishing a presence in the region and creating jobs. Since 2015, FDI employment has increased by 55 percent, demonstrating a strong desire to invest in the region. The region’s growing export activity further strengthens global connections. Since 2010, its export value ranking has improved from 30th to 25th among metro areas.16 98,500 2023 Total FDI Employment Figure 38: Top Export Commodities Source: U.S. International Trade Administration Computer & Electronic Products Transportation Equipment Machinery Fabricated Metal Products Electrical Equipment $ 6,100M $ 4,100M $ 1,300M $ 900M $ 800M Figure 36: Largest Foreign-Owned Employers Source: 2023 MAG FDI Employer Database These top five countries have supported 59,000 jobs in the region. Figure 37: Leading Countries by FDI Employment Source: 2023 MAG FDI Employer Database Source: TSMC.com 21 WORKING IN THE REGION Commercial Real Estate Trends The region’s commercial real estate market is evolving, with the most significant changes occurring in industrial spaces, as reflected in rent prices, vacancy rates, and new construction. Proximity to high-capacity transportation corridors, particularly in the West Valley near the Loop 303, has been a key driver of industrial building growth. 32million Average Industrial Sq Ft Built Per Year 2020-202317 Commercial development in the region is closely tied to high-capacity transportation, especially freeways, which are crucial for distribution and logistics. Approximately 77 percent of all commercial buildings are within two miles of major transportation corridors. Since 2020, 22 percent of new commercial space has been built near the Loop 303, most of it industrial space.18 Commercial Growth Connected to Transportation Industrial rent has increased more since 2020, while office rent remains higher despite rising vacancies. 0M 10M 20M 30M 40M 50M 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 Office Industrial Retail square feet of new construction $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Office Industrial Retail asking rent per square foot 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Office Industrial Retail vacancy rate Industrial vacancy rose with new built space unoccupied, while increased office vacancy may reflect newer remote work trends. Figure 40: Commercial Vacancy Rates Source: CoStar Group Figure 41: Commercial Construction Sources: Maricopa County and Pinal County assessor data Industrial space construction surged as distribution and logtistics expanded across the region. Figure 39: Commercial Rents Source: CoStar Group Inflation adjusted to 2023 dollars. 22 APPENDIX Footnotes 1 U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2022 5-Year State-to-County Migration Estimates 2 U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates 3 Arizona Department of Education 4 Arizona Department of Education 5 Maricopa County and Pinal County Assessor Parcel Data 6 Maricopa County and Pinal County Assessor Parcel Data and MAG 7 U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates 8 U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Public Use Microdata Sample Estimates 9 MAG Employment Projections 10 MAG Employment Projections 11 U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates 12 U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates 13 U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates 14 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages 15 Fall 2024 MAG Travel Demand Model 16 2023 MAG Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Employer Database and U.S. International Trade Administration 17 Maricopa County and Pinal County Assessor Parcel Data 18 Maricopa County and Pinal County Assessor Parcel Data Additional Notes y American Community Survey estimates data are unavailable for 2020. Lines in charts have been connected using simple linear regression for visual continuity and do not represent actual 2020 values or estimates. y Numbers have been rounded to the nearest 100. Inside back cover (intentionally blank) 302 North First Avenue, Suite 300 Phoenix, Arizona 85003 MAG@azmag.gov (602) 254-6300