General Fund 2024-25 Preliminary Budget Status and Multi-Year Forecast

This report transmits the preliminary status for the General Fund (GF) Fiscal Year (FY)
2024-25 budget and a multi-year GF forecast through FY 2026-27 (Attachment A).
The multi-year forecast is being presented to the Mayor and City Council as an
essential tool in long-term budget discussions and decision making.

THIS ITEM IS FOR INFORMATION AND DISCUSSION.

Summary
The GF budget outlook for FY 2024-25 reflects a projected one-time surplus of $80
million. The City has experienced strong growth over the past three fiscal years with
continued increases in resources. However, as the attached multi-year forecast report
(Attachment B) demonstrates, projected deficits in FY 2025-26 and FY 2026-27 will
require strategic decision making to ensure the GF budget remains balanced. Staff will
update revenue and expenditure estimates in the coming weeks as part of the annual
7+5 technical review process and incorporate required changes to projections. The
2024-25 Trial Budget will be presented to City Council on March 19, and will include
recommendations on how to responsibly allocate the one-time surplus.

The attached Multi-Year Forecast report includes estimates of future GF resources and
expenditures for FY 2024-25 through FY 2026-27 based on several economic and
budgetary assumptions. Negative numbers are shown in parenthesis. The forecast
projects a range of ending balances with deficits in FY 2025-26 of $(103) million to
$(66) million and for FY 2026-27 of $(53) million to a potential surplus of $19 million.
The deficits are due to the State's actions to eliminate residential rental sales tax and
reduce individual income tax rates, further discussed in this report. The forecast is not
intended to precisely predict future GF capacity, but rather to present ranges of
potential ending fund balances to be used as a framework for decision making and
strategic planning to ensure a balanced budget going forward.

GF 2024-25 Preliminary Budget Status
The FY 2024-25 GF ending fund balance is estimated to be $80 million and is
considered one-time funds representing a carry forward of prior year fund balance and
savings in GF capital costs. The projected ending fund balance includes significant


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reductions in revenues caused by legislation passed by the State that eliminates
residential rental sales taxes for cities and towns effective January 2025 (SB 1131).
The estimated five-month impact to the GF for FY 2024-25 is approximately $(18.4)
million and the ongoing annual impact beginning in FY 2025-26 is $(43.4) million.
Additionally, SB 1828 reduced individual income tax rates beginning in tax year 2022
to the current "flat tax" rate of 2.5 percent. On June 9, 2023, the State's Joint
Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC) notified the legislative membership of a
significant decline in GF revenue collections, which is primarily due to underestimating
the negative impact of the rate reduction. The City receives state-shared income taxes
based on actual collections from two years prior. Budget and Research staff rely on
projections from the JLBC to estimate this revenue stream for budget development.
The estimated negative impact to FY 2024-25, FY 2025-26, and FY 2026-27 of the
less than estimated income tax revenues by the JLBC is approximately $(36) million,
$(43) million and $(41) million respectively, compared to projections in the GF Forecast
presented to City Council on Feb. 21, 2023.

The GF preliminary estimated resources in FY 2024-25 are $2.096 billion or (1.6)
percent lower than FY 2023-24 estimated resources. GF revenue for FY 2024-25 is
estimated at $1.843 billion or (3.1) percent lower than the FY 2023-24 revised revenue
estimate. Projections account for the reductions mentioned above to city sales tax and
state shared revenue. Staff will further refine GF revenue estimates over the coming
weeks in preparation for the City Manager's Trial Budget scheduled to be presented to
Attachment A.

The GF preliminary expenditure projections may change as cost estimates are further
refined in the coming weeks; however at this time the preliminary FY 2024-25 GF
expenditures to continue existing levels of service are projected to be $2.016 billion, or
$1.927 billion excluding contingency funds. This compares to the FY 2023-24 GF
expenditure estimate of $1.890 billion. The increase accounts primarily for higher costs
for employee salaries and benefits, associated with the City Council approved
Classification and Compensation Study, negotiated labor increases and pension costs.
These cost increases were partially offset by lower GF capital costs for vehicle
replacements and pay-as-you-go projects that will instead utilize excise tax bond
proceeds.

The FY 2023-24 preliminary GF budget also accounts for increasing the contingency
fund from $81 million to $89 million, to reflect 4.75 percent of operating expenditures.
In March 2010, the City Council agreed to gradually increase the contingency with a
goal of achieving five percent of GF operating expenses. Achieving this goal will
improve the City’s ability to withstand potential future economic declines.


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GF Multi-Year Forecast
The attached Multi-Year Forecast and Preliminary GF Status Report includes
economic, resource and expenditure assumptions (Attachment C) used to develop
the forecast. The report also includes possible risks and unfunded needs, including
costs necessary beginning in FY 2024-25 to continue efforts helping individuals
experiencing homelessness. Additional GF resources will be required for the Office of
Homeless Solutions (OHS) upon expiration of American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA)
funds with preliminary estimates for FY 2024-25 of $6.5 million and in FY 2025-26 of
$22 million. These costs have not been factored into the forecast.

The current forecast assumes no changes to existing labor contracts or service levels,
and does not assume any further negative impacts to the City from the current State
legislative session. The forecast accounts for anticipated cost increases for operating
expenses associated with the voter approved 2023 General Obligation Bond Program
in FY 2025-26 and FY 2026-27 totaling $12.8 million over the two fiscal years.
Additionally, pension costs are forecasted separately based on information from the
Personnel Retirement System (PSPRS) actuaries, and are anticipated to increase
$109 million, or 30 percent from FY 2022-23 to FY 2026-27 (Attachment G).

The multi-year forecast as presented does not assume any period of recession but
rather includes a baseline, optimistic and pessimistic projection, based on ranges for
revenues and expenditures. As mentioned above, the FY 2024-25 GF ending fund
balance is estimated to be $80 million. The outer years of the forecast project a range
of ending balances with deficits in FY 2025-26 of $(103) million to $(66) million and for
FY 2026-27 of $(53) million to a potential surplus of $19 million. The baseline forecast
in FY 2025-26 and FY 2026-27 includes deficits estimated at $(92) million and $(31)
million, respectively. The forecast assumes the one-time surplus in FY 2024-25 of $80
million is allocated for one-time purposes rather than spent on ongoing initiatives and
therefore is not continued in the following year. The FY 2025-26 deficit is balanced by
reducing ongoing expenditures and is not carried over to FY 2026-27. The projected
deficits are due to the state’s actions to diminish the ongoing tax base by prohibiting
cities and towns from collecting residential rental sales tax and lowering individual
income tax rates.

It is important to note the FY 2024-25 GF ending balance if adjusted for the loss of
residential rental sales tax and the impact of the less than projected state shared
income tax collections would have been estimated at $134 million (versus $80 million).
The outer years of the forecast would also be significantly improved absent the loss in
revenue with a range in FY 2025-26 of $(17) million to $20 million and projected


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surpluses of $33 million to $105 million in FY 2026-27 (Attachment B).

Additionally, to better prepare for future challenges, the attached report includes stress
testing for moderate and severe recessions, which is an essential fiscal tool to
evaluate how revenues respond to different levels of economic crisis. Stress test
simulations can help determine if an organization can weather economic shocks or
unexpected declines in revenues and is included for illustration purposes only (
Attachment D, E and F).

As we look ahead, areas which could impact the GF include revenue volatility,
economic declines or a recession, continued pension cost increases, higher costs for
employee compensation, impacts from the Department of Justice inquiry, State
legislative actions, and unfunded mandates. Staff will continue to monitor legislation,
economic conditions and monthly revenue collections closely throughout the budget
development process.

Next Steps and Community Engagement
The Phoenix City Charter requires a balanced budget each year. On March 19, a
balanced City Manager’s Trial Budget will be presented for City Council and
community discussion along with the Preliminary Five-Year Capital Improvement
Program (CIP). The CIP is a multi-year plan for capital expenditures that are needed to
replace, expand, and improve infrastructure and systems.

Engaging residents in the budget process is a priority of the City Council, and this year
staff plans to continue the practice of seeking community input on the proposed budget
with several opportunities for residents to participate through community budget
hearings to be held during the month of April. Residents are also invited to use the
FundPHX tool and can contact the Budget and Research Department directly to
provide input on the budget. More information is available on the Budget and Research
Department's website, phoenix.gov/budget. Feedback received from residents will be
provided to the City Council regularly so it may be considered ahead of final budget
adoption.

Responsible Department
This item is submitted by City Manager Jeffrey Barton and the Budget and Research
Department.




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ATTACHMENT A

B.R. REPORT NUMBER
2024-05
RESEARCH REPORT
BUDGET AND RESEARCH DEPARTMENT DATE ISSUED
February 22, 2024
TO: FROM:
JEFF BARTON AMBER WILLIAMSON
CITY MANAGER BUDGET AND RESEARCH DIRECTOR
SUBJECT
MULTI-YEAR FORECAST AND FY 2024-25 PRELIMINARY GENERAL FUND BUDGET STATUS


BACKGROUND
Development and presentation of the multi-year forecast is an important step in the City’s
budget process. Evaluating projected available resources and identifying potential ongoing
budget surpluses or funding gaps will allow City management and Council to develop strategic
plans to ensure the continuation of City operations and optimize services to the community.

The multi-year forecast estimates future revenues and expenditures of the General Fund for the
current fiscal year through fiscal year 2026-27. The purpose of this forecast is to identify key trends
in revenues and expenditures and to provide information about the financial landscape anticipated
over the next few years. The information contained in this forecast is based on data available
through January 2024.

The General Fund (GF) multi-year forecast (Attachment B) is provided to the City Council
and the community for consideration and provides City policy makers with:
• A strategic financial management best practice
• A framework for strategic decision-making to ensure a balanced budget each fiscal year
• The opportunity to make policy changes to maximize City resources and service delivery
• A roadmap to continued fiscal health and award-winning budgetary and financial reporting

The forecast is not an official policy or legal budget document and does not enact any budgetary
allocations. The forecast is also not intended to set or precisely predict future revenues or
expenditures. Rather, the forecast presents current estimates based on several economic and
financial assumptions of the future direction and ranges of growth rates for both resources and
expenditures. The economic, revenue, and expenditure assumptions are provided in Attachment
C.

The forecast is built on several assumptions outlined in Attachment C regarding:
• The national, state, and local economy
• Population and job growth




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• Revenue and expenditure growth
• Impacts of anticipated increasing pension liabilities
• Effects of the state’s actions on residential rental sales tax and individual income tax cuts
• Estimated additional costs for the Class and Comp study
• Cost management practices

All of these factors are subject to change and are detailed further in this report.
Projecting future available resources and expenses over multiple years is complex and involves
several assumptions concerning how revenue and expenditures will grow over time. To model
potential future budgetary scenarios under varying economic conditions, a range is provided for
resources and expenditures for the outer years of the forecast. The differences between the upper
and lower ends of the ranges increase in the later years of the forecast reflecting additional
economic uncertainty. The top of each range represents the “optimistic” forecast, while the bottom
of the range represents the “pessimistic” forecast.

It is important to note, if any of these assumptions as described were to change or modeled
differently, the ranges of amounts presented in the forecast would need to be revised. Unexpected
economic shocks, recessions, legislation, unfunded mandates, or other risks to the forecast can
also adversely affect projections.

Additionally, even slight variances in the revenue and expenditure growth rates in the initial years
of the forecast result in substantial changes to the later years due to the compounding effect of the
changes. For example, a revenue growth variance of only 1% in FY 2024-25 can result in a $19
million change to the ending balance, which would impact the ending fund balances in the
subsequent forecast years. Long term forecasts become less reliable the further they are from
development because of the many underlying assumptions subject to frequent fluctuations.

Projections are formulated in the first six months of the fiscal year and are based on current
estimates of where staff believes resources and expenditures will be for the current fiscal year and
the subsequent three years. In order to create the most reliable revenue and expenditure
projections, staff relies on several economic sources, months of actual collections and extensive
technical reviews before recommending estimates to City management and ultimately the City
Council for final consideration.

GF Summary
Revenue growth in the previous fiscal year was strong despite the onset of geopolitical conflicts, high
inflation, actions by the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates, tighter monetary policy, and
volatile markets. In FY 2022-23, GF revenues were 13.2% higher than FY 2021-22, primarily due to a
one-time increase in state shared income tax collections (based on actual collections from FY 2020-
21), and strong city and state sales tax revenues. However, significant economic uncertainty and
volatility in sales tax revenue collections in the first six months of FY 2023-24 require a cautious
approach to forecasting. The baseline revenue forecast for the remainder of FY 2023-24 and looking
ahead to FY 2024-25 is projected to expand but at a slower pace and is in line with trusted economic
sources used to develop revenue estimates. The revised estimated revenue growth for FY 2023-24
and FY 2024-25 is 12.4% and -3.1% respectively. The negative growth in FY 2024-25 is primarily due
to significantly lower state shared income tax collections caused by the state’s actions to lower the
individual income tax rate to the current “flat tax”, and the elimination of residential rental sales tax.



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The State recently enacted Senate Bill 1131, which prohibits municipalities from taxing residential
rental property starting Jan. 1, 2025. The estimated 5-month impact to the GF for FY 2024-25 is
approximately $(18) million and the ongoing annual impact beginning in FY 2025-26 is over $(43)
million. Additionally, Senate Bill 1828 reduces individual income tax rates beginning in tax year 2022
to the current flat tax rate of 2.5%. On June 9, 2023, the State's Joint Legislative Budget Committee
(JLBC) notified the legislative membership of a significant decline in GF revenue collections, which is
primarily due to underestimating the negative impact of the state's decision in 2021 to enact Senate
Bill 1828. The City receives state-shared income taxes based on actual collections from two years
prior. Budget and Research (B&R) staff rely on projections from the JLBC to estimate this revenue
stream for budget development. The estimated negative impact to FY 2024-25, FY 2025-26, and FY
2026-27 of the less than estimated income tax revenues by the JLBC is approximately $(36) million,
$(43) million and $(41) million respectively compared to projections in the GF Multi-year Forecast
presented to City Council on Feb. 21, 2023.

The FY 2024-25 GF ending fund balance is estimated to be $80 million and is considered one-time
funds representing a carryforward of prior year fund balance and savings in capital expenditures. The
outer years of the forecast project a range of ending balances with deficits in FY 2025-26 of $(103)
million to $(66) million and for FY 2026-27 of $(53) million to a potential surplus of $19 million. The
baseline forecast in FY 2025-26 and FY 2026-27 includes deficits estimated at $(92) million and $(31)
million, respectively. The forecast assumes the one-time surplus in FY 2024-25 is allocated for one-
time purposes rather than spent on ongoing initiatives. The FY 2025-26 deficit is balanced by
reducing ongoing expenditures and is not carried over to FY 2026-27. The projected deficits are due
to the state’s actions to diminish the ongoing tax base by prohibiting cities and towns from collecting
residential rental sales tax and lowering individual income tax rates. It is important to note the FY
2024-25 GF ending balance if adjusted for the loss of residential rental sales tax and the impact of the
less than projected state shared income tax collections would have been estimated at $134 million
(versus $80 million). The outer years of the forecast would also be significantly improved absent the
loss in revenue with a range in FY 2025-26 of $(17) million to $20 million and projected surpluses of
$33 million to $105 million in FY 2026-27 (Attachment B).

Additionally, to better prepare for future challenges, this report also includes stress testing for
moderate and severe recessions, which is an essential fiscal tool to evaluate how revenues might
respond to different levels of economic crisis (Attachment D, E and F).

OTHER INFORMATION

Staff is underway with the annual 7+5 expenditure and revenue technical review process and may
update estimates if necessary. The final estimates and recommendations to the City Council on how
best to allocate the one-time GF surplus in FY 2024-25 to achieve a required balanced budget will be
presented in the proposed Trial Budget on March 19.
It is also worth noting the preliminary FY 2024-25 budget and forecast is based on existing state-
shared revenue models and statutory obligations. Any changes to state-shared revenue formulas,
or other revenue sources proposed in the Governor’s budget or in legislative bills that would
impact the GF forecast, are not reflected, and would need to be addressed if adopted by the
State.




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General Fund FY 2024-25 Preliminary Budget Status

FY 2024-25 Resources - The chart below shows the preliminary resources projection:
2024-25 2024-25
Preliminary Preliminary
Estimate Projected Annual
GF Resource Category (in millions) Growth Rate %
Local Sales & Excise Taxes 1 $737 0.9%
State-Shared Revenue 2 $699 -8.9%
Primary Property Tax 3 $215 3.9%
User Fees and Other $192 -2.9%
Beginning Balance 4 $242 N/A
Transfers/Recoveries 4 $11 N/A
Total GF Resources $ 2,096 -1.6%

1 Reflects the negative impact to Local Sales & Excise taxes because of Senate

Bill 1131, which prohibits municipalities from taxing residential rental property
starting January 1, 2025.
2 Reflects the negative impact to State-Shared Income Tax Revenue because of

Senate Bill 1828, which reduces the individual income tax rates to flat tax of 2.5%
beginning in tax year 2022. However, it does not reflect any impact to State-Shared
Revenue resulting from the FY 2024-25 State budget, nor legislative changes that
have recently been proposed or discussed during the current legislative session.
3 Assumes the continuation of the City Council adopted policy to maximize the

primary levy in order to preserve GF services. Any deviation from this policy would
require an ongoing reduction to GF programs.
4 Estimates for beginning balance and transfers/recoveries are not derived from

annual growth rate projections or broader economic factors.

Revenue Forecasting Model - In the fall of 2014, Budget and Research consulted with the University
of Arizona’s Eller College of Management, Economic and Business Research Center (EBRC) to
enhance the City’s sales tax revenue forecasting process. Dr. George Hammond, EBRC Director,
and Dr. Alberta Charney, Senior Research Economist, spent several months working with City staff to
develop an enhanced econometric sales tax forecasting model for all categories of city and state
sales tax. In the summer of 2017, staff worked with EBRC to update the tax forecasting model. In
March 2021, the EBRC revised the City’s model again by including online sales tax. The City began
collecting sales tax from online marketplace retailers effective October 2019 just prior to the
pandemic, which helped to offset losses experienced in the leisure and hospitality sales tax
categories during the pandemic. The EBRC leads the State of Arizona Forecasting Project, which
provides in-depth economic forecast analysis and databases on a subscription basis to businesses,
organizations, and government via membership. The additional consulting with Dr. Hammond has
provided the City with solid, independent economic and statistical expertise used to develop a
statistically valid forecasting model specifically for the City of Phoenix. The projected growth rates in
each category of sales tax for the FY 2024-25 estimate and the outer years of the forecast are based
on projections developed with the enhanced econometric forecasting model. Revenue estimates may
change as more data becomes available and will be finalized in the coming weeks.




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GF Expenditures - The preliminary expenditure estimates may change as cost estimates are further
refined in the coming weeks. Currently, FY 2023-24 and FY 2024-25 General Fund expenditure
estimates excluding contingency are projected to be $1.890 billion and $1.927 billion, respectively. The
increase includes the additional costs for the Class and Comp study, and increased costs for pension,
contractual services, and commodities. The outer years of the forecast assume expenditures excluding
pension grow by five percent and account for increased costs from the Class & Comp study and
estimated operating cost impacts for the voter approved 2023 General Obligation Bond Program.
Further detail on expenditure assumptions can be found in Attachment C.

Pension Costs – Expected changes in COPERS and PSPRS pension costs are as follows:

• COPERS: GF pension costs in FY 2024-25 for civilian employees are estimated at $113
million and are expected to increase to $122 million in FY 2026-27. The overall trend in
COPERS pension cost has been driven by recent actuarial changes, plan earnings,
payroll growth and pension reform (Attachments B and G).

• PSPRS: GF pension costs in FY 2024-25 for sworn Police and Fire are estimated at $330
million and are expected to increase to $352 million in FY 2026-27. The primary factors
contributing to the growth are recent actuarial changes, plan earnings, and changes to the
payroll base. As the multi-year forecast shows, GF public safety pension costs are estimated
to increase by $31 million from the FY 2023-24 budget through FY 2026-27 (Attachments B
and G), which adds pressure to the GF budget going forward and limits the City’s ability to
either expand programs and services to residents or increase employee compensation.


Contingency Fund (Rainy Day Fund) – The Contingency Fund is assumed to increase from $81
million to $89 million in FY2024-25 to reflect 4.75% of operating expenditures. The contingency
rate remains at 4.75% for the entire forecast period due to the anticipated deficits in FY 2025-26
and FY 2026-27. In March 2010, the City Council agreed to gradually increase the contingency
with a goal of achieving five percent of GF operating expenses to withstand potential economic
declines. Contingency/rainy day funds provide one-time resources for possible emergencies and
unanticipated costs that may occur after the budget is adopted. The possibility of natural
disasters, public or employee safety emergencies, public health issues, economic shocks or
declines, and geopolitical events that can impact the broader economy necessitates maintaining
adequate contingency funds. The Government Finance Officers Association (GFOA)
recommends cities maintain reserve levels as a financial best practice and according to the Pew
Charitable Trust, research also shows that contingency/rainy day funds can affect a
government’s credit rating, which in turn has an impact on borrowing costs and operating
expenses. The role of the contingency/rainy day funds is to improve a city or town’s monetary
stability by building up a safety net for cities and towns so that it could be used to protect itself
against adversities. They offer the capability to meet a monetary crisis without hindering public
services. Without a contingency fund, unforeseen emergencies or economic declines may create
budget deficits requiring reductions to programs and services.

The GF preliminary FY 2024-25 budget status and multi-year forecast are provided for
information purposes only.




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ATTACHMENTS

Attachment B- Multi-Year General Fund Forecast

Attachment C- Forecast Assumptions

Attachment D- Background, Methodology and Assumptions for Stress Testing

Attachment E- Stress Testing for Moderate Recession Scenario

Attachment F- Stress Testing for Severe Recession Scenario

Attachment G- Pension Cost Increases




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ATTACHMENT B
Multi-Year General Fund Forecast ($ Millions)
2023-24 2024-25 For Planning Purposes Only
Adopted Preliminary 2025-26 2026-27
Budget Budget Estimate Forecast Forecast
Resources
Local Taxes $699 $737 $741 - $752 $769 - $792
State Shared Revenues 770 699 674 - 685 700 - 722
Primary Property Tax 207 215 222 - 225 228 - 235
User Fees and Other 155 192 194 - 197 196 - 202
Other (Carryover Balance, Transfers, Recoveries) 130 172 16 7
Unused Contingency from Prior Year 68 81 89 91 - 90
Total Resources $2,029 $2,096 $1,936 - $1,964 $1,991 - $2,048
Expenditures
Operating Expenditures $1,360 $1,408 $1,434 - $1,426 $1,406 - $1,392
Civilian Pension 112 113 115 122
Sworn Public Safety Pension 321 330 340 352
Contingency 81 89 91 - 90 91 - 90
Pay-As-You-Go Capital 122 60 38 38
Minimum Vehicles 33 16 21 35
Total Expenditures $2,029 $2,016 $2,039 - $2,030 $2,044 - $2,029
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PROJECTED (DEFICIT)/SURPLUS: $- $80 $(103) - $(66) $(53) - $19

State’s Actions to Reduce Revenue:
AZ Individual Income Tax Cut, Effective Tax Year 2022 $36 $43 $41
Residential Rental Property Tax Cut, Effective 1/1/2025 $18 $43 $45

ADJUSTED PROJECTED (DEFICIT)/SURPLUS: $134 $(17) - $20 $33 - $105

Key Resource Forecast Assumptions:
* The forecast assumes modest revenue growth with no recession from 2024-25 to 2026-27, no fee increases or decreases and no new revenue sources.
* The forecast includes tax rate reduction: Laws 2021, Chapter 412 (Tax Omnibus) reduced the number of individual income tax brackets from four in Tax Year (TY) 2021 to two brackets in TY 2022. Starting
from TY 2023, the individual income tax has been reduced to 2.5%.
* Relative population share used in calculating state shared revenues in 2024-25 was based on the 2022 Census Bureau Population Estimate. It was projected to remain flat throughout the forecast period.
The actual share will change annually based on Census Bureau Population Estimates. In addition, Laws 2021, Chapter 412 (Tax Omnibus) increased the Urban Revenue Sharing distribution from 15% to
18% starting in 2023-24.
* The forecast includes residential rental property tax reduction: Senate Bill 1131 prohibits municipalities from taxing residential rental property starting January 1, 2025.

Key Expenditure Forecast Assumptions:
* The contingency fund is set as 4.75% of the total General Fund operating expenditures from 2024-25 through 2026-27.
* Includes no additional future funding for program enhancements, unfunded mandates, expiring grants, etc.
* 2024-25 employee costs are based on projections under the current Council-adopted pay plan ordinance and employee contracts. No assumptions have been made concerning future labor contract
negotiations. Estimated costs of the Class and Comp study are included in the forecast. Pension costs are based on required and projected contribution rates provided by the respective pension system
actuaries.
* Non-personnel related expenditures for 2024-25 assume expenditure growth is in line with recent historical averages, and the out years are anticipated to align with the estimated CPI growth.
Other Forecast Notes:
* Ranges provided for revenues and expenditures. Upper & lower ends of ranges increase slightly in the outer years of the forecast reflecting additional economic uncertainty in the later years.
* Ranges include pessimistic and optimistic scenarios within assumptions provided by the primary sources of economic information mentioned in this report.
* When a baseline deficit or ongoing surplus is projected, the next year’s operating expenses are assumed to be decreased or increased by the baseline deficit/surplus amount prior to applying the assumed
annual projected growth rate, as the City is required by Charter to balance the budget each year.




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ATTACHMENT C

Forecast Assumptions

Economic Sources - Budget and Research staff relies on several different sources for economic
data and forecasts to assist with developing revenue and expenditure projections.

The list below includes the primary sources of information:
• State of Arizona Finance Advisory Committee (FAC) which includes several economists and
finance professionals from the private and public sectors
• State of Arizona Joint Legislative Budget Committee (JLBC)
• University of Arizona (UofA), Economic Business Research Center (EBRC)
• Global Insight, IHS
• Arizona State University (ASU) – WP Carey School of Business, and Western Blue Chip
• Arizona Department of Administration (ADOA) - Employment and Population Statistics Office
• JP Morgan Chase Economic Outlook Center
• Blue Chip Economic Indicators (BCEI) – National Level
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
• U.S. Census Bureau
• U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
• The Conference Board
• University of Arizona (UofA) Forecasting Project – A community-sponsored research program
within the Economic and Business Research Center providing project members with economic
forecasts for Arizona, the Phoenix-Mesa metro area, and the Tucson metro area. City staff
attends the Forecasting Project quarterly meetings and receives quarterly reports and
data/projections used to assist in developing our forecasts. Forecasting Project data relies on
Global Insight, IHS which is a well-known economics organization that provides
comprehensive economic and financial information. The data from this project is incorporated
into an econometric software program used to forecast sales tax.

Economic Outlook
The U.S. economy has demonstrated resilience over the past three years. Real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), a common economic measure, grew 2.5% in 2023. According to the U.S. Bureau
of Economic Analysis (January 2024), the 2023 growth was attributed to increases in consumer
spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, exports, and
federal government spending partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and
inventory investment. However, real GDP is expected to rise more slowly in 2024 than in 2023. The
Conference Board anticipates two quarters of slightly negative GDP growth during the second and
third quarters of 2024 that will be broadly felt across the economy. Estimated GDP for 2024 and
2025 is 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively. These figures represent a decline compared to the preceding
three years: 5.8% in 2021, 1.9% in 2022, and 2.5% in 2023 (The Conference Board, January 2024)
signaling a softening of the economy. Despite the anticipated normalization of inflation and interest
rates in 2024, volatility is still expected to persist throughout the year. Several contributing factors
include challenges in real disposable income growth, diminishing pandemic-related savings, rising
household debt, and the impact of “buy now, pay later” plans. At a broader level, the challenges
facing the U.S. economy arise from geopolitical conflicts and the risk of a surge in energy prices.
It’s noteworthy that the upcoming presidential election could have an impact on the economy, and
economists note concerns with the housing and commercial real estate markets as risks to the
broader economy.


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The U.S. economic growth established a platform for continued solid gains in Arizona in 2023. For
the five-year period ending in the third quarter of 2023, the Arizona economy grew 19.6%, making it
the fourth fastest-growing state during this period (Arizona Governor’s Executive Budget, January
2024). Arizona was also one of the fastest states to recover its lost jobs during the pandemic. As of
December 2023, Arizona’s job growth was at 2%, slightly higher than the national rate of 1.9%.
Overall, Arizona is well positioned to grow in 2024 but at a reduced pace. While it shares common
challenges with the broader U.S. economy, the state is currently navigating potential short-term
risks within the housing market. Housing permits are expected to decrease this year for both
single-family and multi-family activity, driven by high interest rates and significantly reduced
housing affordability. Single-family housing affordability continued to deteriorate in the third quarter
of 2023, according to data from the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo. In
Phoenix, only 24.9% of homes sold were affordable, down from 64.9% in the last quarter of 2019
(Economic Outlook 4th Quarter 2023, UofA Economic Business Research Center).

Other significant economic assumptions from trusted sources include the following:
• Personal income growth for the Phoenix Metro area is projected to slightly decline from 6.4%
in 2023 to 6.3% in 2024 and range from 6.1% to 6.4% from 2025 to 2027 (UofA Economic
Business Research Center).
• Growth in population is expected to continue, but at lower rates than historical growth.
Phoenix Metro population is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2024 and slightly increase to 1.6%
for the remaining forecast period (UofA Economic Business Research Center).
• Non-farm employment in metro Phoenix is estimated to slow down from the growth of
2.4% in 2023 to 2.2% in 2024 and decrease to 2.1% for the remaining forecast period
(UofA Economic Business Research Center).
• Arizona unemployment rate is estimated to increase from the rate of 3.7% in 2023 to 4.0%
in 2024 and range from 4.4% to 4.6% for the remaining forecast horizon (UofA Economic
Business Research Center).
• Arizona housing affordability declines due to home price inflation and interest rate hikes. In
addition, housing permits are projected to decrease by 19% in 2024 and remain flat in
2025 (UofA Economic Business Research Center).
• Inflation is expected to decelerate from 2023. The Consumer Price Index-All Urban Consumers
(CPI-U) West region is estimated to decline from 4.4% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 and range from
2.2% to 2.3% for the remaining forecast period (UofA Economic Research Center). In the past
50 years, CPI-U has ranged from negative 0.4% in 2009, to a high of 13.5% in 1980 ( U.S.
Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics).

Resource Assumptions- Revenue growth rates are determined using information from our above-
mentioned trusted sources, analyzing actual revenue trends and averages, and factoring in any
known policy or legislative changes.

Revenue assumptions beyond the broader economic considerations are described below:
• No further period of recession with modest revenue growth for the forecast horizon.
• Annual revenue growth rates range from -3.1% to 4.2% during the forecast period. The state’s
actions to diminish the tax base for both city sales tax and state-shared income taxes have
resulted in a negative growth rate in FY 2024-25 and will have a lasting impact on the
subsequent years.
• No further impact to current revenue tax base, as provided in applicable state statutes
and City ordinances.

Page 19
• The forecast includes tax rate reduction: Laws 2021, Chapter 412 (Tax Omnibus) reduced
the number of individual income tax brackets from four in Tax Year (TY) 2021 to two
brackets in TY 2022. Starting from TY 2023, the individual income tax has been reduced to
a 2.5% flat tax rate.
• Relative population share used in calculating state shared revenues in FY 2024-25 was
based on the 2022 Census Bureau Population Estimate. It is projected to remain flat
throughout the forecast period. The actual share will change annually based on Census
Bureau Population Estimates. In addition, Laws 2021, Chapter 412 (Tax Omnibus)
increases the Urban Revenue Sharing distribution from 15% to 18% starting in FY 2023-24.
• The forecast includes residential tax rate reduction starting on January 1, 2025. The state
recently enacted Senate Bill 1131, which prohibits municipalities from taxing residential
rental property.
• No future fee increases or decreases and no new sources of revenue.
• Potential increases to revenue resulting from economic development efforts are not included in
the forecast.
• Ranges provided for revenues: upper and lower ends of ranges increase slightly in later years
of the forecast reflecting additional economic uncertainty.


Expenditure Assumptions - Assumptions regarding forecasted expenditures are described below:
• Annual operating expenditure growth rates, except for pension, are based on historical
growth rates, estimated CPIs and account for the impact of the City Council approved Class
and Comp (C&C) study throughout the forecast period.
• Pension costs are based on historical actuals and information provided by the COPERS and
PSPRS actuaries. The forecast does not attempt to predict future pension liabilities, assets or
other plan assumptions, but rather to account for the anticipated costs of both pension
systems.
• The forecast does not include the impact of additional potential reform measures for COPERS
or PSPRS or the impact of pending litigation or proposed legislation.
• The forecast includes no additional future funding for program enhancements, unfunded
mandates, expiring grants, etc.
• Pay-as-you-go capital costs are based on the preliminary estimates in the five-year Capital
Improvement Program and include costs for facility major maintenance, replacement of critical
IT infrastructure, and money earmarked for future expenses, including one-time funds for costs
of grant matching requirements for the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill.
• The contingency fund is set at 4.75% of the total GF operating expenditures from FY
2024-25 through FY 2026-27.
• The FY 2024-25 total compensation costs are based on projections under the current
Council adopted pay plan ordinance and existing employee contracts.
• The C&C study requires significant increases to employee salaries that will have an
ongoing impact to the budget beginning in the current fiscal year. The study also provides
for higher starting salaries to attract qualified candidates to fill vacancies throughout the
City. Costs are estimated at $99 million in FY 2024-25, $143 million in FY 2025-26, and
$170 million in FY 2026-27 and have been accounted for in the forecast.
• No other financial impact from changes to labor unit contracts resulting from current or future
negotiations is assumed.
Page 20
• In forecast years with a projected baseline deficit or ongoing surplus, the next year’s
operating expenses are assumed to decrease or increase by the baseline deficit/surplus
amount prior to applying the assumed annual growth projection, as the City is required by
Charter to balance the budget each year.

• Ranges provided for operating expenditures: upper and lower ends of ranges increase slightly
in later years of the forecast reflecting additional economic uncertainty.

Other Considerations to the Multi-Year Forecast - The items below will likely require additional
funding or could adversely impact the multi-year forecast as it’s currently presented.


• The forecast incorporates the estimated annual ongoing operating costs in FY 2025-26 and
FY 2026-27 for the voter approved 2023 General Obligation Bond Program totaling $12.8
million over the two fiscal years. These costs have been factored into the forecast, but
additional resources could be needed.
• The forecast reflects the continued funding of approximately $16 million per year earmarked to
address aging City infrastructure and critical equipment. Examples of these projects include
upgrades and replacements of fire life safety, electrical, and cooling systems in City facilities.
Also, under the direction of the City Manager, staff continues to identify critical needs in all City
facilities and works with several external firms that specialize in facility assessments. Staff has
also taken active steps to enhance facility maintenance oversight by centralizing GF facility
maintenance funding and creating a review committee. This change has significantly
enhanced the prioritization of GF facility projects. However, additional resources may be
required to adequately maintain city infrastructure.
• GF vehicle funding is estimated at $16.2 million for FY 2024-25 and increases to $20.7 million
in FY 2025-26, and $35 million in FY 2026-27 to replace units in the fleet. The cost to replace
vehicles and Fire apparatus has grown significantly due to inflation over the past three fiscal
years per the Public Works Department. It should be noted the current GF backlog of vehicles
is estimated by Public Works at 1,193 units with a total backlog value of $122 million, and
more vehicle replacement funding may be needed during the forecast horizon.
• Additional costs to the GF are anticipated to further the City’s effort to help individuals
experiencing homelessness upon the expiration of American Rescue Plan Act funds.
Preliminary estimates include a funding need in FY 2024-25 of $6.5 million and in FY 2025-26
of $22 million. These costs have not been factored into the forecast.
• The current state legislative session could result in further negative revenue impacts that if
passed would require adjustments to revenue projections used in the forecast.




Page 21
ATTACHMENT D

Stress Testing

Background – According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the longest economic
expansion on record was ended by COVID-19 in February 2020. The COVID-19 recession is one of
the deepest but shortest in U.S. history. With federal stimulus packages and more than anticipated
revenue collections, the City was not forced to cut the budget. The City exhibited remarkable
economic resilience during the pandemic. However, several risks currently threaten national and
local economies, potentially triggering a recession or economic slowdown. Thus, stress testing is
crucial, as it helps estimate potential financial shortfalls resulting from adverse events. To help the
City plan ahead, avert or limit a fiscal emergency and keep long-term priorities on track, staff
conducted stress testing for the General Fund.

Methodology/Assumptions - "Stress test" in financial terminology, is an analysis or simulation
designed to determine the ability of a given entity to deal with an economic crisis. Instead of doing a
financial projection on a "best estimate" basis, a company or its regulators may do stress testing to
estimate how robust an entity performs in certain negative circumstances, a form of scenario
analysis. There are two scenarios for this stress testing: moderate and severe recession scenarios.

Attachment E shows a hypothetical moderate recession estimated to start in FY 2024-25. This
scenario assumes that General Fund revenue, except state-shared income tax, will decline by 1% for
two consecutive years. According to Moody’s Analytics, a recession typically affects budgets for at
least two years (except for the COVID-19 recession, which was interfered with the federal stimulus
packages). Although a moderate recession may impact revenue by more than 1%, the model is
simulated with a 1% decrease. State-shared income tax distributed to cities and towns is based on
the collections from 2 years prior, so the state-shared income tax decrease due to a moderate
recession will not affect revenues until FY 2026-27.

Attachment F shows a hypothetical severe recession that is estimated to start in FY 2024-25. This
scenario assumes that General Fund revenue, except state-shared income tax, will decline by 3% for
three consecutive years. Although a severe recession may impact revenues by more than 3%, for
simulation purposes, this stress test used a 3% decrease. Similar to the moderate scenario, the state-
shared income tax decrease caused by the economic recession will not affect revenues until FY 2026-
27.

Assumptions for recoveries, fund transfers and expenditures remain the same as the model shown in
Attachment B. However, the expenditures for the forecast period will be different due to the
methodology applied in the model. When a deficit or surplus is projected, the next year’s operating
expenses are assumed to be decreased or increased by the deficit/surplus amount prior to applying
the assumed annual projected growth rate, as the City is required by Charter to balance the budget
each year.




Page 22
ATTACHMENT E
Multi-Year General Fund Forecast – Moderate Recession Scenario ($ Millions)
2023-24 2024-25 For Planning Purposes Only
Adopted Preliminary 2025-26 2026-27
Budget Budget Estimate Forecast Forecast
Resources
Local Taxes $699 $696 $666 - $676 $690 - $712
State Shared Revenues 770 680 638 - 648 645 - 665
Primary Property Tax 207 205 201 - 204 207 - 214
User Fees and Other 155 187 183 - 186 185 - 191
Other (Carryover Balance, Transfers, Recoveries) 130 168 16 7
Unused Contingency from Prior Year 68 81 89 91 - 90
Total Resources $2,029 $2,017 $1,793 - $1,819 $1,825 - $1,879
Expenditures
Operating Expenditures $1,360 $1,408 $1,434 - $1,425 $1,255 - $1,242
Civilian Pension 112 113 115 122
Sworn Public Safety Pension 321 330 340 352
Contingency 81 89 91 - 90 84 - 83
Pay-As-You-Go Capital (Includes Technology Plan) 122 60 38 38
Minimum Vehicles 33 16 21 35
Total Expenditures $2,029 $2,016 $2,039 - $2,029 $1,886 - $1,872
Page 23
PROJECTED (DEFICIT)/SURPLUS: $- $1 $(246) - $(210) $(61) - $7

Key Resource Forecast Assumptions:
* The forecast assumes moderate recession in 2024-25 and 2025-26, no fee increases or decreases and no new revenue sources.
* The forecast includes tax rate reduction: Laws 2021, Chapter 412 (Tax Omnibus) reduced the number of individual income tax brackets from four in Tax Year (TY) 2021 to two brackets in TY 2022. Starting
from TY 2023, the individual income tax has been reduced to 2.5%.
* Relative population share used in calculating state shared revenues in 2024-25 was based on the 2022 Census Bureau Population Estimate. It is projected to remain flat throughout the forecast period. The
actual share will change annually based on Census Bureau Population Estimates. In addition, Laws 2021, Chapter 412 (Tax Omnibus) increased the Urban Revenue Sharing distribution from 15% to 18%
starting in 2023-24.
* The forecast includes residential rental property tax reduction: Senate Bill 1131 prohibits municipalities from taxing residential rental property starting January 1, 2025.

Key Expenditure Forecast Assumptions:
* The contingency fund is set at 4.75% of the total General Fund operating expenditures from 2024-25 through 2026-27.
* Includes no additional future funding for program enhancements, unfunded mandates, expiring grants, etc.
* 2024-25 employee costs are based on projections under the current Council-adopted pay plan ordinance and employee contracts. No assumptions have been made concerning future labor contract
negotiations. Estimated costs of the Class and Comp study are included in the forecast. Pension costs are based on required and projected contribution rates provided by the respective pension system
actuaries.
* Non-personnel related expenditures for 2024-25 assume expenditure growth is in line with recent historical averages, and the out years are anticipated to align with the estimated CPI growth.

Other Forecast Notes:
* Ranges provided for revenues and expenditures. Upper & lower ends of ranges increase slightly in the outer years of the forecast reflecting additional economic uncertainty in the later years.
* Ranges include pessimistic and optimistic scenarios within assumptions provided by the primary sources of economic information mentioned in this report.
* When a baseline deficit or surplus is projected, the next year’s operating expenses are assumed to be decreased or increased by the baseline deficit/surplus amount prior to applying the assumed annual
projected growth rate, as the City is required by Charter to balance the budget each year.
ATTACHMENT F
Multi-Year General Fund Forecast – Severe Recession Scenario ($ Millions)
2023-24 2024-25 For Planning Purposes Only
Adopted Preliminary 2025-26 2026-27
Budget Budget Estimate Forecast Forecast
Resources
Local Taxes $699 $681 $635 - $645 $615 - $635
State Shared Revenues 770 673 623 - 634 601 - 621
Primary Property Tax 207 201 193 - 196 186 - 192
User Fees and Other 155 183 176 - 179 169 - 174
Other (Carryover Balance, Transfers, Recoveries) 130 167 16 7
Unused Contingency from Prior Year 68 81 89 89
Total Resources $2,029 $1,986 $1,732 - $1,759 $1,667 - $1,718
Expenditures
Operating Expenditures $1,360 $1,408 $1,403 - $1,394 $1,193 - $1,180
Civilian Pension 112 113 115 122
Sworn Public Safety Pension 321 330 340 352
Contingency 81 89 89 81 - 80
Pay-As-You-Go Capital (Includes Technology Plan) 122 60 38 38
Minimum Vehicles 33 16 21 35
Total Expenditures $2,029 $2,016 $2,006 - $1,997 $1,821 - $1,807
Page 24
PROJECTED (DEFICIT)/SURPLUS: $- $(30) $(274) - $(238) $(154) - $(89)

Key Resource Forecast Assumptions:
* The forecast assumes severe recession from 2024-25 to 2026-27, no fee increases or decreases and no new revenue sources.
* The forecast includes tax rate reduction: Laws 2021, Chapter 412 (Tax Omnibus) reduced the number of individual income tax brackets from four in Tax Year (TY) 2021 to two brackets in TY 2022. Starting
from TY 2023, the individual income tax has been reduced to 2.5%.
* Relative population share used in calculating state shared revenues in 2024-25 was based on the 2022 Census Bureau Population Estimate. It is projected to remain flat throughout the forecast period. The
actual share will change annually based on Census Bureau Population Estimates. In addition, Laws 2021, Chapter 412 (Tax Omnibus) increased the Urban Revenue Sharing distribution from 15% to 18%
starting in 2023-24.
* The forecast includes residential rental property tax reduction: Senate Bill 1131 prohibits municipalities from taxing residential rental property starting January 1, 2025.

Key Expenditure Forecast Assumptions:
* The contingency fund is set at 4.75% of the total General Fund operating expenditures from 2024-25 through 2026-27.
* Includes no additional future funding for program enhancements, unfunded mandates, expiring grants, etc.
* 2024-25 employee costs are based on projections under the current Council-adopted pay plan ordinance and employee contracts. No assumptions have been made concerning future labor contract
negotiations. Estimated costs of the Class and Comp study are included in the forecast. Pension costs are based on required and projected contribution rates provided by the respective pension system
actuaries.
* Non-personnel related expenditures for 2024-25 assume expenditure growth is in line with recent historical averages, and the out years are anticipated to align with the estimated CPI growth.

Other Forecast Notes:
* Ranges provided for revenues and expenditures. Upper & lower ends of ranges increase slightly in the outer years of the forecast reflecting additional economic uncertainty in the later years.
* Ranges include pessimistic and optimistic scenarios within assumptions provided by the primary sources of economic information mentioned in this report.
* When a baseline deficit or surplus is projected, the next year’s operating expenses are assumed to be decreased or increased by the baseline deficit/surplus amount prior to applying the assumed annual
projected growth rate, as the City is required by Charter to balance the budget each year.
ATTACHMENT G
Pension Cost Increases

The below chart illustrates the rise in General Fund (GF) pension costs for PSPRS and
COPERS. The forecast for fiscal years 2024-25 through 2026-27 is based on information from
plan actuaries and on the valuations dated June 30, 2023. Projected amounts account for
changes made by the PSPRS Board, which updated the salary, inflation, and demographic
assumptions. The PSPRS Board also lowered the payroll growth assumption to 2.0%, resulting
in an increase to the employer contribution rate.


General Fund Pension Forecast
GF COPERS GF Fire PSPRS GF Police PSPRS % of GF Expenditures

$109M or 30% Increase FY22-23 to FY26-27
$500 $473
$455
$443 29.0%
$450
$413
$400 27.0%
$364
$338
$350 $324
$300 25.0%
Millions $300 $266 $268
24.2% 24.2%
23.0%
$250 23.4% 23.3%
23.0% 23.0%
22.6% 22.4%
$200 22.0% 21.9% 21.0%

$150
19.0%
$100
17.0%
$50

$0 15.0%
Actuals Actuals Actuals Actuals Actuals Actuals Estimate Forecast Forecast Forecast
FY17-18 FY18-19 FY19-20 FY20-21 FY21-22 FY22-23 FY23-24 FY24-25 FY25-26 FY26-27




Page 25



Report

This report presents to City Council the annual update to the City of Phoenix Heat
Response Plan for Summer 2024. The Heat Response Plan details the programs and
services that Phoenix delivers to residents and visitors to prevent illness, death, and
other serious and immediate adverse health outcomes associated with indoor and
outdoor heat exposure.

THIS ITEM IS FOR INFORMATION AND DISCUSSION.

Summary
Extreme Heat and Public Health
Summer heat is a serious public health challenge for residents of and visitors to the
region. Heat-related deaths in Phoenix as reported by the Maricopa County
Department of Public Health have risen substantially since 2014, to a new record high
of 395 during 2023, the hottest summer in the city's history. Drugs and/or alcohol were
contributing factors to 73 percent of the heat-related deaths in Phoenix last summer,
and people experiencing homelessness accounted for 54 percent of all cases. Of the
73 heat-related deaths associated with an indoor place of injury in Phoenix last
summer, air conditioning was not functioning, turned off, or not present in 90 percent of
the cases.

The total public health burden of extreme heat in Phoenix also includes thousands of
cases of heat-related illness that require medical treatment including ambulance
dispatches, emergency room visits and overnight hospitalization. In 2023, the single
day with the most medical calls to the Phoenix Fire Department was July 18. Total calls
surged 34 percent higher than a typical day as high temperatures reached 118
degrees Fahrenheit in the middle of what would become the hottest month on record
for any major American city.

Beyond incidents that require emergency medical service, many residents experience
physical and mental health challenges associated with prolonged or frequent heat
exposure, disrupted sleep patterns, anxiety over high electricity bills, and other factors.
These outcomes are not routinely or systematically tracked, but available evidence
suggests that they impact a high percentage of the City’s and the region’s residents.


Page 26

For example, in a 2015 community assessment, the Maricopa County Department of
Public Health found that nearly one-third of residents consider their homes to be “too
hot” at some point in the summer.

Heat Response Planning Process
Planning for the 2024 heat season began in late summer 2023, with the formalization
of an Executive Heat Response Leadership team. This team is comprised of senior
staff from Emergency Management, Fire, Public Health, Homeless Solutions, and Heat
Response and Mitigation. The Executive Heat Response Leadership team conducted
a multi-pronged program evaluation to identify opportunities for improvement toward
the goal of preventing heat-associated illness and deaths. The evaluation included an
after-action analysis of the City’s summer 2023 efforts, a facilitated enterprise risk
management workshop with departmental leadership, and review of program
performance with each of the 15 individual departments that operate programs and
services relevant to the heat response mission. This evaluation informed plans for
summer 2024.

Summer 2023 Progress
Although public health data clearly indicates that existing programs and services are
not fully meeting needs to protect all people from dangerous summer heat in Phoenix,
the City’s increased effort and investment in heat response over the past several years
have led to positive outcomes. Statistical models demonstrate that the number of heat-
related deaths and emergency dispatches in Phoenix would have been expected to be
even higher than the 2023 totals if there had been no change in community
preparedness or response.

Heat Response program improvements in summer 2023 included:
· Distribution of $384,000 in grant funding to 19 local non-profits and faith-based
organizations that benefited nearly 29,000 residents.
· Deployment of a City bus as a temporary cooling center in the vicinity of the Human
Services Campus, which recorded 7,400 visits over a 47-day operating period.
· Expansion of direct heat relief outreach efforts by City staff and volunteers, doubling
engagements from the previous year to more than 8,300.
· Activation of the Sunnyslope Family Services Center as a heat respite site for
people experiencing homelessness in the Sunnyslope area, in partnership with St.
Vincent de Paul.

2024 Heat Response Plan
The draft City of Phoenix Heat Response Plan for Summer 2024 is included as
Attachment A. The document includes a thorough analysis of weather and health


Page 27

data from prior years, specification of goals and performance indicators, and
descriptions of key networks and partnerships. The primary section of the plan
describes 39 heat response actions for which the City holds a leadership role,
organized into nine broad strategies:

1. Equip first responders for effective heat response;
2. Leverage data for informed action;
3. Provide publicly accessible cool space;
4. Increase access to drinking water;
5. Support cool and safe home environments;
6. Support cool and safe mobility and recreation;
7. Implement heat safety measures for workers;
8. Engage with the community to build heat readiness;
9. Collaboratively work across department and agency boundaries.

There are 12 new or significantly revised actions in the 2024 Heat Response Plan.
These changes are proposed based on analysis of 2023 health impact data,
stakeholder input, and new capacity to support the heat response mission from
multiple departments and agencies. The significant revisions are as follows:

1. Adopt an Incident Management Team (IMT) framework for the entire heat season.
The Office of Emergency Management is well suited to integrate a unified command
approach covering all phases of the City’s Extreme Heat Response efforts.
Implementation of an IMT will effectively provide a command-and-control element to
systematically coordinate and manage the collective resources and personnel the
2. Formalize a tiered heat response framework. The 2024 plan will delineate three
tiers of response: (I) seasonal preparedness and programming, which operate May
through September, (II) peak season programming, operating during the mid-June
through mid-August time frame when most heat-related deaths and illnesses occur,
and (III) short-term emergency adjustments as triggered by National Weather
Service Excessive Heat Warnings.
3. Expand operating hours and services provided at City of Phoenix Heat Relief
Network locations. Staff have developed plans to operate two overnight respite and
navigation centers at Burton Barr Library and the Senior Opportunities West Senior
Center from May 1 through Sept. 30 with professional case management services
and dedicated security staff at each facility. Staff have also developed plans to
extend the operating hours of three Cooling Centers during the heat season: Cholla
Library, Yucca Library, and Harmon Library.
4. Integrate heat outreach programs into other City services. The executive committee
has identified opportunities to improve service delivery by redirecting components of


Page 28

the heat relief outreach efforts into ongoing engagement and case management
functions of the Office of Homeless Solutions.
5. Follow updated heat illness and injury prevention plans created for City
departments with affected employees aligned with the Arizona Division of
Occupational Safety and Health (ADOSH) State Emphasis Program on worker heat
safety. The City of Phoenix Human Resources Safety Division has helped ensure
each affected department has an updated written heat illness and injury prevention
plan and will be collaborating with departments to support the implementation of
those plans in 2024.
6. City staff are exploring opportunities to implement new requirements in City
procurement processes and/or City contracts related to heat safety. These
requirements would ensure that City-engaged businesses (contractors and sub-
contractors) have relevant and effective heat safety plans in place.
7. Leverage the Phoenix Fire Department’s dispatch and patient care data resources
in new ways to more effectively guide and evaluate heat response programs and
services. New dashboards and reporting tools have been developed to support
internal planning and response and to provide updates to City Council and the
public.
8. Develop more specific strategies to reduce heat-related health risks among people
who use substances, especially methamphetamines and opioids. Among the
strategies anticipated to be implemented in 2024 are new training programs for City
employees and partners engaged in heat relief that enable them to more effectively
engage substance users, as well as heat safety and program training for local
organizations who provide services to substance users.
9. Coordinate with recently added staff positions at the Maricopa County Department
of Public Health and Arizona Department of Health Services to ensure that regional
and statewide efforts align with City of Phoenix heat response efforts. This
coordination further extends to ongoing and new efforts catalyzed by the Governor’s
Extreme Heat emergency declaration in August 2023 and associated Executive
Order.
10.Increase the modalities and reach of public messaging related to heat response to
maximize community awareness of heat illness symptoms, available resources, and
opportunities to participate in heat response initiatives.
11.Expand the hours of the closure policy for selected trails at mountain preserves on
National Weather Service Excessive Heat Warning Days, as adopted by the Parks
Board in 2023.
12.Operate the Safe Outdoor Space for people experiencing homelessness, including
the provision of shaded outdoor space and cooled indoor space.

Responsible Department
This item is submitted by Assistant City Manager Lori Bays, Deputy City Manager Gina


Page 29

Montes and the Fire, Emergency Management, Heat Response and Mitigation, Public
Health, and Homeless Solutions offices.




Page 30
Attachment A
2024 Heat Response Plan

DRAFT for City Council Review
February 27, 2024




Page 31
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 3
Purpose and Planning Process 4
Weather and Climate Assessment 6
Health Assessment 8
Heat Response Programs and Services 10
Table of Strategies and Actions 11
Strategy 1: Equip First Responders for Effective Heat Response 13
Strategy 2: Leverage Data for Informed Action 13
Strategy 3: Provide Publicly Accessible Cool Space 15
Strategy 4: Increase Access to Drinking Water 18
Strategy 5: Support Cool and Safe Home Environments 20
Strategy 6: Support Cool and Safe Mobility and Recreation 22
Strategy 7: Implement Heat Safety Measures for Workers 24
Strategy 8: Engage with the Community to Build Heat Readiness 25
Strategy 9: Collaboratively Work Across Department and Agency Boundaries 28
Acknowledgements 30






Page 32
Executive Summary
The Heat Response Plan details the programs and services that Phoenix delivers to residents
and visitors to prevent illness, death, and other serious and immediate adverse health outcomes
associated with indoor and outdoor heat exposure. Heat-related deaths in the City of Phoenix as
reported by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health have risen substantially since
2014, to a new record high of 395 during 2023, the hottest summer in the City’s history. The
2024 Heat Response Plan acknowledges these rising impacts by proposing several substantive
changes to the City’s overall approach to heat response, as well as revisions to several
programs.

The Heat Response Plan contains 39 specific heat response actions for which the City holds a
leadership role, organized into nine broad strategies:

1. Equip first responders for effective heat response.
2. Leverage data for informed action.
3. Provide publicly accessible cool space.
4. Increase access to drinking water.
5. Support cool and safe home environments.
6. Support cool and safe mobility and recreation.
7. Implement heat safety measures for workers.
8. Engage with the community to build heat readiness.
9. Collaboratively work across department and agency boundaries.

There are 12 new or significantly revised actions in the 2024 Heat Response Plan:

1. Adopt an Incident Management Team (IMT) framework for the heat season.
2. Formalize a tiered heat response framework.
3. Expand operating hours and services at Heat Relief Network locations.
4. Integrate heat outreach programs into other city services.
5. Follow improved heat safety plans for all city departments.
6. Propose new heat safety requirements for City-engaged businesses.
7. Leverage the Phoenix Fire Department’s data resources in new ways.
8. Develop more specific strategies for people who use substances.
9. Coordinate with recently added County and State staff positions.
10. Increase the modalities and reach of public messaging.
11. Expand the trail closure policy on heat warning days.
12. Operate the Safe Outdoor Space.

The City of Phoenix 2024 Heat Response Plan was presented for discussion by City Council at
the February 27, 2024 City Council Policy meeting.






Page 33
Purpose and Planning Process
The City of Phoenix Heat Response Plan outlines programs and services intended to protect
public health and quality of life from the threats of hot weather. Extreme heat is a leading cause
of weather-related deaths in the United States and exerts a significant public health burden in
Phoenix. The most acute impacts include heat-caused and heat-related fatalities, as well as
heat-related illnesses that require emergency medical service and hospital case. Many other
health challenges are also known to be related to prolonged, frequent, or severe heat exposure
that are not systematically documented. These challenges include cases of heat illness that are
unreported, disrupted sleep patterns, and anxiety over high electricity bills.

While everyone is potentially vulnerable to heat-related illness, certain communities account for
a disproportionately high share of the public health burden of extreme heat. Multiple studies of
heat-health impacts in Arizona find that rates of heat-related illness and/or death are higher in
communities that have lower incomes, lower quality housing, a higher prevalence of elderly
individuals, a higher prevalence of people of color, and other indicators of social vulnerability.
Public health reports in Arizona further point to people experiencing homelessness and
substance users as disproportionately burdened by heat.

Managing the public health risks associated with extreme heat is an integral component of
hazard preparedness for the City of Phoenix owing to its geographic positioning in the Sonoran
Desert. Prolonged, hot summers are a part of the regional climate. However, the experience of
summer heat is highly variable between different neighborhoods in Phoenix and between
individual residents. Historical development patterns and varying topography across Phoenix
lead to neighborhood-to-neighborhood air temperature differences of 10°F or more on summer
days. Exposure to individual people is even more variable depending on their daily activity
patterns and access to air-conditioned spaces. Over time, the severity of summer heat in
Phoenix is being amplified beyond background conditions by urban development and global-
scale climate change. Summer daytime and nighttime temperatures have increased in the City
of Phoenix for several decades and temperatures are projected to continue to rise.

To address the significant, inequitable, and growing public health risks associated with extreme
heat, the Phoenix City Council unanimously passed the City’s first Heat Response Plan in 2022.
This document reflects the second annual update to the Heat Response Plan.

The process to update the Heat Response Plan for the 2024 Heat Season began in late
summer 2023, with the formalization of an Executive Heat Response Leadership team. This
team is comprised of senior staff from Emergency Management, Fire, Public Health, Homeless
Solutions, and Heat Response and Mitigation. The Executive Heat Response Leadership team
initiated several different types of program evaluation to identify opportunities for improvement
toward the goal of preventing heat-associated illness and deaths. Those evaluation activities
included a formal after-action analysis of the City’s enhanced efforts during summer 2023, a
facilitated enterprise risk management workshop with departmental leadership, and review of
program performance with each of the individual departments that operate programs and



Page 34
services relevant to the heat response mission. The Heat Response Plan is also informed by
other stakeholder engagements, including the City’s participation in a two-day planning
workshop with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in February 2024, an April
2024 Heat, Health, and Homelessness Roundtable, a June 2024 convening of the C40 Cool
Cities Network, and the 2023 Arizona Heat Planning Summit.

The 2024 Heat Response Plan presents 39 actions organized into nine broad strategies:
1. Equip first responders for effective heat response.
2. Leverage data for informed action.
3. Provide publicly accessible cool space.
4. Increase access to drinking water.
5. Support cool and safe home environments.
6. Support cool and safe mobility and recreation.
7. Implement heat safety measures for workers.
8. Engage with the community to build heat readiness.
9. Collaboratively work across department and agency boundaries.

The goal of the Heat Response Plan is to enhance public health and community resilience by
alleviating adverse effects of heat. Key performance indicators include:
• Heat-related mortality: Strive for year-over-year reductions in the number of fatalities
attributed to heat exposure in the City of Phoenix
• Heat-related illnesses: Strive for year-over-year reductions in the number and severity of
medical service calls related to heat exposure in the City of Phoenix.

The scope of the Heat Response Plan has been modified from previous iterations to emphasize
program and services that either wholly or partially operate on seasonal time scales with a focus
on heat, public health, and quality of life. The City of Phoenix also implements and invests in a
wide range of other programs and services that support the goals of the Heat Response Plan
but are not specifically activated or emphasized for the heat season, and as such are not listed
as actions in this document. Examples of those related initiatives include:
• Major investments in affordable housing units and shelter beds, with 1,864 new beds to
be created in the 2022–2025 time frame along with 125 affordable housing units.
• Operation of housing repair and weatherization programs.
• Launch of a pilot program to deploy water stations in high density, multimodal areas to
enhance access to equitable, free and reliable chilled drinking water.
• Installation of shade structures at transit stops and in the public right of way, including
through the Phoenix Sidewalk Shade Project that will include work from local artists.
• Installation of shade structures at schools and youth-focused centers through the Shade
for Students grant program.
• Curation of ideas for innovative shade structure designs through an Innovate PHX
Challenge that attracted over 170 participants.
• Increases in urban tree canopy through the Community Canopy and Canopy for Kids
grant programs, focused on low tree equity score neighborhoods.
• Authorship of a new ShadePHX Plan to replace the 2010 Tree and Shade Master Plan.



Page 35
Weather and Climate Assessment
The City of Phoenix Heat Response Plan defines May through September as “Heat Season”
and June through August as “Summer.”

Heat Season 2023 Review

The 2023 Heat Season in the City of Phoenix set many records with respect to the severity and
duration of extreme heat conditions. After a near-normal May and temperatures below normal
for much of June, each month from July through September was ranked among the top six all
time, respectively, in Phoenix’s history. Conditions were most severe in July, which became the
hottest month on record for any major city in the United States. In July, temperatures reached
110°F or above 30 times and 115°F or above 17 times. The highest recorded temperature
during the summer was 119°F, reached three times—all in July. The table below provides a
month-by-month comparison of high and low temperatures for the 2023 Heat Season against
climatological normals.

2023 Normal 2023 2023 Normal 2023
Month
Avg. High Avg. High* Rank** Avg. Low Avg. Low* Rank**
May 96.0°F 94.5°F 27 70.6°F 69.5°F 16
June 103.3°F 104.2°F 52 75.6°F 78.6°F 39
July 114.7°F 106.5°F 1 90.8°F 84.5°F 1
August 109.5°F 105.1°F 2 88.0°F 83.6°F 1
September 103.4°F 100.4°F 6 78.9°F 78.1°F 11
*per the official 1991–2020 U.S. Climate Normals adopted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
**out of 128 recorded years; 1 indicates hottest on record

Other records of note for the 2023 Heat Season include:

• Excessive Heat Warnings were in effect for Phoenix on 42 days, which was the second
most on record.
• Daily high temperature records were set or tied on 20 separate days, including on 12
days between July 13 and July 29.
• The daily high temperature of 119°F recorded on three separate days represent the
fourth warmest days on record for the City of Phoenix. Temperatures have only reached
120°F and above on three days (all in the 1990s).
• New records for the highest and second highest daily low temperature were set in 2023.
The new record high low temperature of 97°F was set on July 19.
• The stretch of 31 consecutive days with daily high temperatures was the longest such
streak on record, breaking the prior streak of 18 days set in 1974.






Page 36
Climate Data for Planning

The table below presents weekly averages, ranges, and probabilities of exceedance for Phoenix
Sky Harbor based on 2014–2023 observations. Statistics are based on the previous ten years
rather than the official 30-year normals established by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration to ensure that the most recent observations are used and to acknowledge non-
stationarity in regional temperature trends. Data are presented for each week of the 2024 Heat
Season starting on Sundays.


Week Date Daily High Temperatures Daily Low Temperatures
Average Highest 100°F or 110°F or Average Highest 90°F or
(°F) (°F) above* above* (°F) (°F) above*
1 4/28 92.5 104 16% 0% 66.5 75 0%
2 5/5 92.0 108 26% 0% 67.4 81 0%
3 5/12 94.7 105 33% 0% 69.6 82 0%
4 5/19 93.7 108 24% 0% 69.1 79 0%
5 5/26 99.6 112 54% 3% 73.8 84 0%
6 6/2 104.2 115 81% 13% 77.5 87 0%
7 6/9 104.6 115 83% 16% 79.1 90 4%
8 6/16 108.0 119 96% 37% 81.3 92 11%
9 6/23 107.9 116 99% 36% 83.2 93 9%
10 6/30 107.5 116 96% 33% 84.2 94 3%
11 7/7 109.4 118 99% 56% 86.9 95 33%
12 7/14 107.5 119 96% 29% 86.7 97 29%
13 7/21 107.1 119 89% 39% 86.0 96 30%
14 7/28 106.7 118 91% 36% 85.2 95 24%
15 8/4 106.7 116 91% 31% 84.8 92 16%
16 8/11 106.0 117 84% 29% 83.7 93 16%
17 8/18 103.5 115 77% 11% 82.0 91 6%
18 8/25 106.9 117 94% 27% 84.5 93 13%
19 9/1 104.5 115 86% 10% 83.0 90 1%
20 9/8 102.3 114 69% 7% 80.4 90 1%
21 9/15 100.3 109 53% 0% 77.6 87 0%
22 9/22 97.4 106 53% 0% 74.8 85 0%
23 9/29 95.0 107 21% 0% 71.2 79 0%
*Probabilities of exceedance indicate the percent of days within the given week that temperatures have reached the
indicated temperature over the past decade.






Page 37
Health Assessment
Heat-related deaths are tracked in Maricopa County by the Maricopa Department of Public
Health (MCDPH), in partnership with the Maricopa County Office of the Medical Examiner.
Heat-related deaths include those that are directly attributable to heat exposure (heat-caused
deaths) and those where heat played a contributing role but was not the primary cause of death
(heat-contributed deaths). The Maricopa County heat-health system is widely recognized as
national and international best practice. Heat-related deaths have been recorded using
consistent methods since 2006.

Heat-related deaths have increased year-over-year in Maricopa County each year since 2014
and have set new record highs each year since 2016; this pattern holds true when adjusting for
population growth. Particularly large year-over-year increases were evident from 2015 to 2016
(+83%), 2019 to 2020 (+62%), and 2021 to 2022 (+25%). Another large increase is evident from
2022 to 2023, with an increase of more than 47% to a new record high of 625 cases in Maricopa
County last summer. Of those, 395 cases occurred in the City of Phoenix and/or were among
residents of the City of Phoenix. Approximately 63% of heat-related deaths in Maricopa County
over the past two summers have been in the City of Phoenix or among Phoenix residents.




MCDPH produces comprehensive annual reports that detail key risk factors and characteristics
of heat-associated deaths, including demographic information, details about housing status, air
conditioning availability, and indications of drug/alcohol use.






Page 38
Key details for City of Phoenix cases (total = 395) in 2023:
• 224 cases were considered heat caused and 171 cases were considered as heat
contributed.
• 340 cases had a place of injury in Phoenix. Among these cases, 257 were among
Maricopa County residents, 23 were among residents of other counties in Arizona, and
80 had out of state or unknown residency.
• 268 cases had a known place of injury outdoors; 73 cases had a known place of injury
indoors.
• Among 268 outdoor cases, 200 occurred in an urban area, and 225 were men
• Among 73 indoor cases, 60 occurred with either a non-functioning air conditioning unit
(50), an air conditioning unit that was turned off (8), or in a unit without electricity (2).
Women accounted for 1/3 of the indoor cases, versus less than 1/6 of the outdoor cases.
• 213 of the 395 total cases were individuals known to be experiencing homelessness and
another 59 were among people with an unknown living situation.
• 290 of the 395 cases involved drugs or alcohol in the cause of death.
Methamphetamine/amphetamines were present in 240 of those cases and
fentanyl/fluorofentanyl were present in 143. Of the 290 substance use cases, 190 were
among people experiencing homelessness.
• 252 cases occurred in July.
• ZIP codes with especially high rates of place of injury or place of residence for heat-
related deaths in Phoenix in 2023 included 85006, 85007, 85009, 85017, and 85034.

A key lesson learned from MCDPH and Arizona State University (ASU) analysis of heat-
associated death and illness data is that serious health impacts from heat are not confined to
only the hottest summer days. While the hottest days do bring the highest risk of heat-
associated death and illness, cases begin to be seen at temperatures that would be considered
mild by most Phoenicians. These findings imply that a seasonal approach to heat management,
rather than one only focused on intermittent “heat waves” is necessary in our hot desert city.
While the days with the highest temperatures and National Weather Service Excessive Heat
Warnings in effect are indeed the most dangerous, there are many more days without warnings
and with lower temperatures that also require vigilance and sufficiently protective programs and
services. In 2023 in the City of Phoenix:
• 210 heat-related deaths (53.2%) occurred on the 22 Heat Season days with
temperatures reaching 115°F or above.
• 115 heat-related deaths (29.1%) occurred on the 33 Heat Season days with
temperatures reaching 110°F to 114°F.
• 67 heat-related deaths (17.7%) occurred on the 98 Heat Season days with temperatures
not reaching 110°F.


City staff from multiple departments are continuing to analyze heat-related medical dispatch
data collected by the Fire Department. This analysis has informed actions in the 2024 Heat
Response Plan and will be posted when finalized.





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Heat Response Programs and Services
In 2024, the City of Phoenix will take the lead or play a significant role in executing 39 heat
response programs and services. This comprehensive portfolio comprises a mix of ongoing
programs continuing from previous years, revised existing programs, and new initiatives
introduced for the summer of 2024. The responsibility and support for these programs and
services, encompassing budget and staffing needs, are distributed across more than 15
different City departments and functions.

There are 12 new or significantly revised actions in the 2024 Heat Response Plan:

1. Adopt an Incident Management Team (IMT) framework for the heat season (see Action 9.1).
2. Formalize a tiered heat response framework (2.1).
3. Expand operating hours and services at Heat Relief Network locations (3.2, 3.3).
4. Integrate heat outreach programs into other city services (8.6).
5. Follow improved heat safety plans for all city departments (7.1).
6. Propose new heat safety requirements for City-engaged businesses (7.3).
7. Leverage the Phoenix Fire Department’s data resources in new ways (2.2).
8. Develop more specific strategies for people who use substances (8.4)
9. Coordinate with recently added County and State staff positions (9.5).
10. Increase the modalities and reach of public messaging (8.1).
11. Expand the trail closure policy on heat warning days (6.4).
12. Operate the Safe Outdoor Space (3.4).


The subsequent pages feature an inventory of all programs and services organized by strategy,
presented in table format. Following the table, a short narrative is provided for each action to
provide a more complete perspective of the components of the Heat Response Plan.






Page 40
Strategies Actions 2024 Status City Departments
Equip First 1.1 Activate Summer Heat Response Protocols CONTINUED FIRE
Responders for
Effective Heat
Response
Leverage Data for 2.1 Adopt a Tiered Heat Response Framework NEW OEM, FIRE, OHRM,
Informed Action OPH
2.2 Monitor City of Phoenix Dispatch and First CONTINUED OEM, FIRE, OHRM,
Responder Calls OPH
2.3 Monitor Regional Data with the Arizona CONTINUED OEM, FIRE, OHRM,
Heat Resilience Work Group OPH
Provide Publicly 3.1 Designate City Facilities as Cooling Centers REVISED LIBRARY, OHRM
Accessible Cool in the Heat Relief Network
Space 3.2 Offer Extended Hours at City of Phoenix NEW LIBRARY, OHRM,
Cooling Centers OPH, OEM, FIRE
3.3 Establish Overnight Respite and Navigation NEW LIBRARY, HSD,
Centers at City Facilities OHRM, OPH, OEM,
FIRE
3.4 Operate Safe Outdoor Space NEW OHS
3.5 Provide Shade and Cooled Rest Areas at CONTINUED OHS
The Key Campus
3.6 Distribute Heat Relief Network signage to NEW OHRM, FINANCE
participating facilities
Support Publicly 4.1 Distribute Bottled Water to Community CONTINUED OHRM, FINANCE
Accessible Organizations and Heat Relief Network Sites
Drinking Water 4.2 Distribute Reusable Water Bottles Through CONTINUED OHRM, PWD, OHS,
Heat Response Programs PRD
4.3 Deploy Mobile Water Unit NEW WSD, PWD, OHRM
4.4 Designate City Facilities as Hydrations CONTINUED PRD, HSD, OHRM
Stations in the Heat Relief Network
Support Cool and 5.1 Promote and Enforce Cooling Ordinance for CONTINUED NSD, HSD, COMMS
Safe Home Rental Housing Units
Environments
5.2 Provide Emergency Utility Assistance CONTINUED HSD
5.3 Offer Low-flow Water Services Program REVISED WSD
5.4 Educate the Community About Electric CONTINUED COMMS, OHRM, 311
Utility Disconnection Rules
5.5 Offer Telephone-based Heat Wellness REVISED OHRM, VOL
Checks
Support Cool and 6.1 Promote Take a Hike, Do It Right Heat REVISED PRD, OHRM, FIRE
Safe Mobility and Safety Messaging
Recreation 6.2 Provide Heat Safety Messaging to Transit REVISED PTD, LRT, OHRM
Riders
6.3 Operate City Pools for Cool Recreation CONTINUED PRD
6.4 Close Select Trailheads on Excessive Heat REVISED PRD
Warning Days
Implement Heat 7.1 Implements Heat Safety Plans in City CONTINUED HR
Safety Measures Departments
for Workers 7.2 Promote State Emphasis Program on Heat REVISED HR, COMMS, OHRM
Safety
7.3 Develop and Adopt Heat Safety NEW HR, LAW, FINANCE,
Expectations for City Contractors OHRM
8.1 Operate a Comprehensive Heat Response REVISED COMMS, OHRM,
Public Education Campaign OPH, OEM, FIRE
8.2 Provide Heat Relief Funding to Community CONTINUED OHRM
Partners




Page 41
Engage with the 8.3 Distribute Youth Heat Safety Books CONTINUED OHRM, LIBRARY,
Community to COMMS, OAC
Build Heat 8.4 Improve Engagement Strategies for People CONTINUED OPH, OHRM,
Readiness Who Use Substances COMMS
8.5 Support Media Requests Related to Heat CONTINUED OHRM, COMMS
Response
8.6 Distribute Heat Relief Supplies to People REVISED OHS, OHRM
Experiencing Homelessness
8.7 Train Volunteers to Support Heat Response REVISED VOL, OHRM
Programs
8.8 Attend Community Events to Share Heat CONTINUED OHRM
Safety Resources
Collaboratively 9.1 Build Incident Management Team for NEW OEM
Work Across Coordinated Heat Response
Department and 9.2 Convene Regular Meetings with NEW OHRM
Agency Departmental Liaisons
Boundaries 9.3 Collect Comprehensive Evaluation Data to REVISED OHRM
Support Heat Response
9.4 Provide Weekly Updates on Heat Response CONTINUED OHRM
Programs
9.5 Participate in and Lead Cross-Agency REVISED OHRM
Engagement


Department key: OHRM – Office of Heat Response and Mitigation; PD – Police; COMMS – Communications; VOL – Volunteer
Programs; OAC – Arts and Culture; HSD – Human Services; Human Resources – HR; NSD – Neighborhood Services; OPH –
Public Health, OEM – Office of Emergency Management; Public Works Department – PWD; Parks and Recreation Department –
PRD; Water Services Department – WSD; Public Transit Department – PTD; Light Rail Transit - LRT.

Status key: NEW indicates new programs for 2024; REVISED indicates programs with significant changes from 2023; CONTINUED
indicates programs that will operate largely unchanged from 2023 and/or operate on an ongoing basis year-round.






Page 42
STRATEGY 1:
EQUIP FIRST RESPONDERS FOR EFFECTIVE HEAT RESPONSE

 Activate summer heat response protocols Action 1.1
The City of Phoenix Fire Department responded to more than 2,000 calls for heat emergencies
in the 2024 Heat Season. The life-saving measures taken by the Fire Department for heat
emergencies include chilled intravenous therapy and other innovative strategies designed to
reduce case severity. The Fire Department Heat Stress Management Standard Operation
Procedure (MP 206.19) provides a robust framework for minimizing the effects of heat stress on
first responders, which would have a cascading adverse impact on the community. The
framework focuses on health assessments, rest, hydration, and temperature regulation for
personnel exposed to high temperatures. Protective directives engage when temperatures
exceed 105°F, deploying additional resources and implementing enhanced rehabilitation
measures. Training exposures comply with ADOSH guidelines, further ensuring the well-being
of civilian personnel.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) FIRE
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.phoenix.gov/fire/publications/standard-operating-procedures
IN EFFECT TIER 1




STRATEGY 2:
LEVERAGE DATA FOR INFORMED ACTION
 Adopt a tiered heat response framework Action 2.1
Heat Response actions for 2024 will be activated as follows:
Tier 1 actions are in effect May 1 through September 30. Most actions in the Heat Response
Plan are activated for Tier 1 but may receive additional emphasis or investment during Tier 2.
Tier 2 is in effect June 15–August 15 to reflect peak efforts for the portion of the summer that
typically has the most significant public health impacts.
Tier 3 actions are in effect on days when the National Weather Service issues an Excessive
Heat Warning for any region that includes the City of Phoenix.
The start and end dates for Tier 1 and Tier 2 actions may be modified by City Management and
the Incident Management Team based on available intelligence and operational capabilities.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OEM, FIRE, OHRM, OPH
2024 STATUS NEW
2023 STATUS / METRICS N/A
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.weather.gov/psr/heat for NWS Excessive Heat Warning information




Page 43
 Monitor City of Phoenix dispatch and first responder data Action 2.2
City staff are analyzing the Phoenix Fire Department’s dispatch and patient care data resources
in new ways to guide and evaluate heat response programs and services more effectively. New
dashboards and reporting tools have been developed to support internal planning and response
and to provide updates to City Council and the public.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OEM, FIRE, OHRM, OPH
2024 STATUS REVISED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT / DISPATCH DATA WERE ANALYZED WEEKLY
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1




 Monitor regional data with the Arizona Heat Resilience Work Group Action 2.3
The AZ Heat Resilience Work Group meets to convene stakeholder organizations from around
Arizona to monitor heat forecasts/warnings from the National Weather Service, review
community health indicators provided by health agencies, share best practices relating to heat
response and relief, and to encourage collaboration, coordination, and development of novel
responses to preparedness and resilience to extreme heat. Diverse stakeholders participate in
the Work Group, including local, county, state, and federal government officials, regional non-
profits, faith-based institutions, academic and research partners, and community advocates.
Multiple City departments participate in the Work Group’s biweekly virtual meetings in the Heat
Season, and staff from the Office of Heat Response and Mitigation serve on the Work Group’s
steering committee.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OEM, FIRE, OHRM, OPH
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT / STAFF ATTENDED ALL MEETINGS
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://globalfutures.asu.edu/sustainable-cities/az-heat-resilience-workgroup/
IN EFFECT TIER 1 AND YEAR-ROUND






Page 44
STRATEGY 3:
PROVIDE PUBLICLY ACCESSIBLE COOL SPACE

 Designate City facilities as Cooling Centers in the Heat Relief Network Action 3.1
The regional Heat Relief Network is coordinated by the Maricopa Association of Governments
(MAG) and consists of Respite Centers, Cooling Centers, Hydration Stations, and Donation
Sites. Cooling Centers are indoor, air-conditioned locations that also offer hydration. 17 City of
Phoenix Library locations served as Cooling Centers throughout the 2023 Heat Season and the
City will continue this commitment in 2024. All participating City facilities are listed on a publicly
accessible web map and directory hosted by MAG. A new research partnership with the Arizona
State University Knowledge Exchange for Resilience will generate data concerning the role of
Cooling Centers in reducing physiological heat stress.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) LIBRARY, OHRM
2024 STATUS REVISED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT / 17 PARTICIPATING COOLING CENTERS
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://azmag.gov/Programs/Heat-Relief-Network
IN EFFECT TIER 1




 Offer extended hours at City of Phoenix Cooling Centers Action 3.2
Participating facilities in the regional Heat Relief Network typically provide services coincident
with their normal hours of business operation. This model creates gaps in network availability,
particularly in the late afternoon and evening hours, as well as on weekends. To address this
deficiency, the City of Phoenix is preparing to extend the hours of three Cooling Centers to
10pm each day of the week and add capacity from noon to 10pm on Sundays throughout the
heat season. The three locations identified for this mission based on analysis of public health
and community vulnerability data as well as operational capabilities are Cholla Library, Harmon
Library, and Yucca Library. Staffing and operational models are still in development as of the
publication of the Heat Response Plan.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) LIBRARY, OHRM, OPH, OEM, FIRE
2024 STATUS NEW
2023 STATUS / METRICS N/A
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1






Page 45
 Establish Overnight Respite and Navigation Centers at City facilities Action 3.3
To further address deficiencies in regional Heat Relief Network availability (see Action 3.2), the
through the entire Heat Season. These locations will provide water and serve as a safe, cool
indoor space for refuge from the heat. They will also provide case management and navigation
services, including transportation, to help people access the wide range of other City of Phoenix
resources that are aligned with the Heat Response Plan goals. The two locations identified for
this mission based on analysis of public health and community vulnerability data as well as
operational capabilities are Burton Barr Library and the Senior Opportunities West Senior
Center. The Burton Barr Library location is anticipated to have the capacity to operate as a 24/7
Respite and Navigation Center, whereas the Senior Opportunities West location will only be
available overnight.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) LIBRARY, HSD, OHRM, OPH, OEM, FIRE
2024 STATUS NEW
2023 STATUS / METRICS N/A
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1




 Operate the Safe Outdoor Space Action 3.4
The Safe Outdoor Space at 1537 W. Jackson St. is a key component in the city’s strategy to
address homelessness around the Key Campus. It is designed as an alternative for those not
yet ready for indoor shelter during enhanced engagements, will provide a safer, shaded
environment with essential services to aid individuals in ending their homelessness. The unique
property, procured with $5.4 million in grant funding, offers both outdoor and indoor spaces. The
operation of the Safe Outdoor Space aligns with recommendations from the Strategies to
Address Homelessness Task Force and the City Manager's proposal in April 2022. Partnership
with the Arizona State University-led Southwest Integrated Field Laboratory will enable
deployment and evaluation of innovative cooling techniques on site to benefit residents.
TARGET POPULATION PEOPLE EXPERIENCING HOMELESSNESS
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHS
2024 STATUS NEW
2023 STATUS / METRICS N/A
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1 AND YEAR-ROUND






Page 46
 Provide shade and cooled rest areas at the Key Campus Action 3.5
Multiple investments made over the past three years will provide additional shade and cooled
space to individuals experiencing homelessness at the Key Campus. These investments include
shade structures and evaporative coolers that are activated on the Campus during the Heat
Season.
TARGET POPULATION PEOPLE EXPERIENCING HOMELESSNESS
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHS
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1




 Distribute Heat Relief Network signage to participating facilities Action 3.6
In partnership with the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, the City of Phoenix will
coordinate the distribution of physical signage to facilities that participate in the regional Heat
Relief Network. Items to be distributed include A-frame/sandwich board-style signs, yard signs,
and window clings. Signage will be available in multiple languages with a regionally consistent
brand identity.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHRM, FINANCE
2024 STATUS NEW
2023 STATUS / METRICS N/A
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT BEFORE HEAT SEASON AND TIER 1






Page 47
STRATEGY 4:
INCREASE ACCESS TO DRINKING WATER

 Distribute water to community organizations and Heat Relief Network sites Action 4.1
The City of Phoenix coordinates a water bottle distribution program that serves community- and
faith-based organizations as well as City of Phoenix Heat Relief Network sites. In 2023, nearly
400,000 bottles were distributed to community partners and approximately 100,000 bottles were
distributed to Cooling Centers and Hydration Stations. This action relies on a combination of
was reassigned to be managed by Office of Heat Response and Mitigation and Finance
Department. The two units collaborated to create a new request management system and
logistical workflow for the program.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHRM, FINANCE
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT / 494,112 BOTTLES TO 35 COMMUNITY ORGS. AND CITY
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. COMMUNITY PARTNERS MAY CONTACT HEATREADYPHX@PHOENIX.ORG
IN EFFECT TIER 1




 Distribute reusable water bottles through Heat Response programs Action 4.2
City staff will continue to integrate and expand the use of reusable water bottles through heat
relief outreach efforts and the City’s Heat Relief Network sites. This action provides more
durable bottles for community use relative to single use plastic bottles and support’s the City’s
Zero Waste goals. The reusable lightweight aluminum bottles deployed in 2023 featured
multiple custom designs printed with Phoenix-specific heat safety information, including QR
codes linked to the regional Heat Relief Network map and hiking safety information on the Parks
and Recreation Department Take a Hike, Do it Right website.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHRM, PWD, OHS, PRD
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT / 7,248 REUSABLE ALUMINUM BOTTLES DISTRIBUTED
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1






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 Deploy mobile water unit Action 4.3
The City of Phoenix Water Department and Public Works Department designed and procured a
mobile drinking water unit with refrigeration that was completed and delivered by the vendor in
late 2023. Staff are now developing operational models and being trained on operational and
safety procedures for the mobile water unit in advance of its expected deployment for the 2024
Heat Season. The unit will be deployed to community events and will augment heat relief
outreach efforts. The mobile water unit provides the equivalent amount of water as 4,400 single
use plastic bottles.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE, SPECIAL EVENT ATTENDEES
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) WSD, PWD, OHRM
2024 STATUS NEW
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN PLANNING STAGE / MOBILE WATER UNIT WAS BUILT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1 AND YEAR-ROUND




 Designate City facilities as Hydration Stations in the Heat Relief Network Action 4.4
The regional Heat Relief Network is coordinated by the Maricopa Association of Governments
(MAG) and consists of Respite Centers, Cooling Centers, Hydration Stations, and Donation
Sites. Hydration Stations are indoor or outdoor locations that offer bottled water and may offer
other heat relief resources. 45 City of Phoenix facilities as Hydration Stations throughout the
2023 Heat Season and the City will continue this commitment in 2024. All participating City
facilities are listed on a publicly accessible web map and directory hosted by MAG.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) PRD, HSD, OHRM
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT / 45 PARTICIPATING HYDRATION STATIONS
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://azmag.gov/Programs/Heat-Relief-Network
IN EFFECT TIER 1






Page 49
STRATEGY 5:
SUPPORT COOL AND SAFE HOME ENVIRONMENTS

 Promote and enforce cooling ordinance for rental housing units Action 5.1
The Neighborhood Services Department enforces the City’s cooling ordinance, which sets
minimum temperature requirements for cooling systems in all single and multi-family rental
housing units. Every rental housing unit must be capable of safely cooling all inhabitable rooms
to 86°F if cooled by evaporative cooling and 82°F if cooled by air conditioning. The Human
Services Department also operates a Landlord Tenant program that helps parties understand
their rights and responsibilities concerning. The City proactively promotes these and related
programs throughout the Heat Season.
TARGET POPULATION RENTERS
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) NSD, HSD, COMMS
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
https://www.phoenix.gov/nsdsite/Documents/NPD%20Documents/Cooling%20Ordinance%2
RESOURCES / MORE INFO.
0Flyer.pdf
IN EFFECT TIER 1 AND YEAR-ROUND




 Provide emergency utility assistance Action 5.2
The Human Services Department operates the City’s utility assistance program for residents,
which aids in the coverage of costs for electricity, water, and gas services. Assistance is
provided through the Emergency Rental Assistance Program and local utility assistance funding
initiatives. Priority populations for this support include seniors, disabled, and medically involved
individuals, families with young children, and renters facing an imminent eviction crisis. The
utility assistance program operates year-round and will be promoted as a heat response
strategy during the heat season.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) HSD
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.phoenix.gov/humanservices
IN EFFECT TIER 1 AND YEAR-ROUND






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 Offer Low-Flow Water Service Program Action 5.3
The Water Services Department is continuing and expanding its innovative Low-Flow Water
Service Program. This program provides a vital lifeline for customers experiencing difficulty
paying their water bills, offering essential water services for up to three months. By ensuring
continued access to water for basic needs, such as hydration, while residents work to resolve
challenges with bill payment, the City strives to alleviate the burdens associated with extreme
heat and financial strain. As part of this update, customers will be directed to
phoenix.gov/resources for comprehensive assistance with their bills, underscoring our
commitment to supporting residents through challenging times and fostering community
resilience.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) WSD
2024 STATUS REVISED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.phoenix.gov/waterservices
IN EFFECT TIER 1 AND YEAR-ROUND




 Educate the community about electric utility disconnection rules Action 5.4
To augment efforts by Arizona Public Service (APS) and Salt River Project (SRP), City staff will
deliver public-facing message and provide internal training to relevant departments regarding
Heat Season electrical utility disconnection rules. As of the publication of this plan, APS and
SRP have different disconnection rules and procedures. APS suspends disconnections for
nonpayment between June 1 and October 15; SRP suspends disconnections on National
Weather Service Excessive Heat Warning Days. Both utilities offer a wide range of services and
support to help customers avoid disconnection.

TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) COMMS, OHRM
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS N/A
https://www.aps.com/en/Residential/Billing-and-Payment/Payment-Policies
RESOURCES / MORE INFO.
https://blog.srpnet.com/heat-moratoriums-excessive-heat-warnings-explained/
IN EFFECT VARIES BY UTILITY






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 Offer telephone-based heat wellness checks Action 5.5
The city will leverage external partners and collaborate with additional city departments to
reform and relaunch the Cool Callers outreach program initiated in 2022. Volunteers, trained by
City staff, will continue conducting telephone-based wellness checks for residents who opt into
the program. These volunteers will inquire about residents' health status and the adequacy of
their home cooling systems, while also providing information on the city’s emergency utility
program, weatherization program, cooling centers, hydration stations, services available from
utility companies, and emergency medical services as needed. The goal for this program in
2024 is to expand outreach efforts and reach a broader pool of community members, building
upon the successes and lessons learned from the pilot programs conducted in summer 2022
and 2023, with the aim of ensuring the well-being of residents during periods of extreme heat.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHRM, VOL
2024 STATUS REVISED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN PILOT STAGE
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.phoenix.gov/heat
IN EFFECT TIER 1




STRATEGY 6:
SUPPORT COOL AND SAFE MOBILITY AND RECREATION

 Promote Take a Hike, Do it Right Heat Safety Messaging Action 6.1
The Parks and Recreation Department’s “Take a Hike, Do it Right” campaign provides
consistent messaging regarding heat and trail safety measures with large signage at city
trailheads and parallel messaging on city websites and social media feeds. Parks rangers are
trained in heat illness symptom recognition and make frequent direct contact with trail users
during the summer months to ensure adequate preparedness. On days with temperatures
exceeding 110°F, rangers are deployed to selected popular trailheads to provide additional heat
safety messaging to residents. Where possible, water is provided in 5-gallon coolers to help
hikers refill personal water bottles. Park Stewards known as Camelback Navigators and We’re
Cool volunteers (primary comprised of members of the Phoenix Community Emergency
Response Team) support staff in providing heat safety messaging and resources throughout the
Heat Season at select trailheads. Parking lot entrances at select trailheads have extended
hours during the summer months to promote hiking during cooler parts of the day. Dogs are
prohibited from all City of Phoenix trails when temperatures reach 100°F.
TARGET POPULATION HIKERS
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) PRD, OHRM, FIRE
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT / 200+ HOURS OF VOLUNTEER SUPPORT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.phoenix.gov/parkssite/Pages/take-a-hike-do-it-right.aspx
IN EFFECT TIER 1




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 Provide heat safety messaging to transit riders Action 6.2
Valley Metro and the Office of Heat Response and Mitigation are partnering to increase heat
safety messaging for public transit users. New and improved initiatives for summer 2024 include
heat relief resource cards for contracted security staff, social media messaging, kiosk posters,
pop-up messaging in the Valley Metro app, and audio messaging at platforms. With support
from the City of Phoenix Transit and Light Rail Departments, Valley Metro continues to improve
the ability for transit system users to monitor bus and train movements in real time, which
enables them to spend less time outdoors waiting for services.
TARGET POPULATION TRANSIT USERS
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) PTD, LRT, OHRM
2024 STATUS REVISED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1



 Operate City pools for cool recreation Action 6.3
The Parks and Recreation Department operates a network of public pools throughout the city
that provide heat relief and safe summer recreational opportunities for residents. Recruitment
bonuses were offered for summer 2023 to increase the number of lifeguards on staff, in
response to shortages in previous years that constrained pool access. The Departments’ “Kool
Kids” program reduces or eliminates cost barriers to enter select city pools for Phoenix youth.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) PRD
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.phoenix.gov/parks/pools
IN EFFECT VARIES BY LOCATION



 Close select trailheads on Excessive Heat Warning days Action 6.4
The Parks Board voted in October 2021 to close the summit trails at Piestewa Peak and
Camelback Mountain at certain times on summer days for which the National Weather Service
has issued an Excessive Heat Warning; Parks staff enforces these trail closures. Parks Board
updated the policy in August 2023 to amend the closure times to 9am and 5pm on any days for
which the National Weather Service has issued an Excessive Heat Warning; Parks staff
enforces these trail closures.
TARGET POPULATION HIKERS
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) PRD
2024 STATUS REVISED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT / TRAIL CLOSURES ON 42 DAYS
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.phoenix.gov/parks/trails/take-a-hike-do-it-right to receive alerts
IN EFFECT TIER 3






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STRATEGY 7:
IMPLEMENT HEAT SAFETY MEASURES FOR WORKERS

 Implement heat safety plans in City departments Action 7.1
The Human Resources Safety division has developed Heat Injury and Illness Prevention Plans
with departments whose employees face extreme heat safety dangers during their work duties.
These plans work to minimize or eliminate employee exposures to heat related hazards that
may lead to serious injuries, illnesses or death. These plans outline each department’s safety
controls and policies to mitigate heat related hazards, procedures to follow should a heat related
illness or injury occur and training to ensure employees are familiar with their department’s plan.
TARGET POPULATION CITY EMPLOYEES
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) HR
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1 AND YEAR-ROUND



 Promote State Emphasis Program on Heat Safety Action 7.2
The Arizona Division of Occupational Safety and Health launched a State Emphasis Program
on Heat Safety in July 2023. The City of Phoenix will promote this program and other state and
federal resources related to worker safety as a component of the broader heat response public
education campaign.
TARGET POPULATION WORKERS
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) HR, COMMS, OHRM
2024 STATUS REVISED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
https://test-az2-ica.pantheonsite.io/sites/default/files/2023-
RESOURCES / MORE INFO.
09/Arizona%20Heat%20SEP%20CPL_03-00-024%202.0.pdf
IN EFFECT TIER 1 AND YEAR-ROUND



 Develop and adopt heat safety expectations for City contractors Action 7.3
City staff are exploring opportunities to implement new requirements in City procurement
processes and/or City contracts related to heat safety. These requirements would ensure that
City-engaged businesses (contractors and sub-contractors) have relevant and effective heat
safety plans in place.
TARGET POPULATION WORKERS
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) HR, LAW, FINANCE, OHRM
2024 STATUS NEW
2023 STATUS / METRICS N/A
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT N/A






Page 54
STRATEGY 8:
ENGAGE WITH THE COMMUNITY TO BUILD HEAT READINESS

 Operate a comprehensive heat response public education campaign Action 8.1
The City will increase the modalities and reach of public messaging related to heat response in
2024 through a comprehensive public education campaign. The goal of the campaign is to
maximize community awareness of heat illness symptoms, available resources, and
opportunities to participate in heat response initiatives. Historically, the City has shared heat
safety and cooling resource information through print and digital communication channels,
including social media. The City also hosts multiple websites with heat safety information and
links to related resources, including phoenix.gov/heat and phoenix.gov/summer. These
resources will be updated and new resources will be created for the 2024 heat season to more
effectively engage with heat-vulnerable populations and the community at large.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) COMMS, ORHM, OPH, OEM, FIRE
2024 STATUS REVISED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.phoenix.gov/pio/summer
IN EFFECT TIER 1




 Provide heat relief funding to community partners Action 8.2
In 2023, the Office of Heat Response and Mitigation established a Heat Relief Grant program to
support community organizations whose efforts aligned with the goals of the Heat Response
Plan. City Council allocated $450,000 in American Rescue Plan Act funding to support this
program. The grants were intended to augment the efforts of community organizations that offer
a wide range of services to meet the needs of heat-vulnerable residents. Heat relief grants for
the 2023 and 2024 heat season were awarded to 19 community organizations. To date,
grantees have reported more than 45,000 engagements with community members related to
this funding. Community members have received heat relief supplies, accessed cooled space,
and received case management through this funding.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHRM
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT / 45,061 ENGAGEMENTS SUPPORTED
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1






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 Distribute youth heat safety books Action 8.3
The City will continue to distribute the “Hot Days, Cool Fun” workbook developed in 2023 to
promote heat safety awareness for younger community members. The workbook was
developed collaboratively between the Office of Heat Response and Mitigation, Office of Arts
and Culture, and Arizona State University. It is available in English and Spanish.
TARGET POPULATION YOUTH
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHRM, LIBRARY, COMMS, OAC
2024 STATUS CONTINUTED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.phoenix.gov/heatsite/Documents/heatact_book_pdf3.pdf
IN EFFECT TIER 1



 Improve engagement strategies for people who use substances Action 8.4
The Office of Heat Response and Mitigation in partnership with the Office of Public Health will
continue efforts to improve heat related outcomes for people who use drugs and alcohol.
Substance use was a factor in 73% of heat-related deaths in the City of Phoenix in 2023 and a
factor in 89% of the heat-related deaths among people experiencing homelessness. Efforts in
2024 will include the continuation of the naloxone program through heat outreach and cooling
centers, education on overdose signs, symptoms, and response. In addition, OHRM and OPH
will develop and implement heat risk messaging and tools in partnership with overdose and
disease prevention agencies and services supporting people who use drugs.
TARGET POPULATION SUBSTANCE USERS
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHRM, OPH, COMMS
2024 STATUS REVISED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.phoenix.gov/healthsite/Pages/Naloxone.aspx
IN EFFECT TIER 1



 Support media requests related to heat response Action 8.5
City staff help build public awareness of heat safety strategies and community cooling resources
by participating as subject matter experts in requested interviews. Media requests related to
heat response programs are coordinated by the Communications Office and filled by
departments as appropriate to the request. The City also hosts a pre-heat season media event
coincident with Arizona Heat Awareness Week with a wide range of city departments and
external partners available for interviews, and provides periodic media pool availability through
the heat season. In 2023, the Communications Office coordinated more than 100 requests from
local, national, and international outlets related to the City’s Heat Response Plan and programs.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) COMMS, OHRH, OPH, OEM, FIRE
2024 STATUS REVISED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT / 100+ MEDIA REQUESTS FILLED
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.phoenix.gov/pio
IN EFFECT TIER 1 AND YEAR-ROUND





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 Distribute heat relief supplies to people experiencing homelessness Action 8.6
The City proactively engages with people experiencing homelessness through the daily work of
professional outreach specialists from the Office of Homeless Solutions. In the 2024 heat
season, these outreach teams will be equipped with heat relief resource kits including water and
other heat relief supplies and information about community cooling resources. This is a shift in
the City’s operational model for distributing heat relief supplies and cooling resource information
to people experiencing homelessness, which previously involved a larger share of volunteer
efforts through the We’re Cool program. The shift leverages increased capacity in the Office of
Homeless Solutions, ensures that the most qualified personnel are engaged with a highly
vulnerable population, and creates new opportunities for volunteers to support heat programs.
TARGET POPULATION PEOPLE EXPERIENCING HOMELESSNESS
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHS, OHRM
2024 STATUS ENHANCED INITIATIVE FROM 2023
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT / 29,000+ ITEMS DISTRIBUTED
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1



 Train volunteers to support heat response programs Action 8.7
Volunteers play a critical role in supporting the Heat Response Plan. In previous years,
volunteers have participated in street outreach efforts, provided public education, distributed
resources, conducted telephone wellness checks, augmented staffing at heat relief network
facilities, and helped organize heat relief supplies. The Offices of Volunteer Programs, Heat
Response and Mitigation, and Public Health will continue to develop training programs to enable
volunteers to support heat response programs as safely and effectively as possible.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHRM, VOL
2024 STATUS REVISED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT / 1,700 VOLUNTEER HOURS CONTRIBUTED
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://volunteer.phoenix.gov/
IN EFFECT TIER 1



 Attend community events to share heat safety resources Action 8.8
The Office of Heat Response and Mitigation will help raise awareness of heat response
initiatives by supporting requests to participate in community gatherings, fairs, and outreach
events throughout the heat season. Staff will provide an informational booth and engage with
attendees to raise awareness about heat safety measures, distribute educational materials, and
provide guidance on accessing community cooling resources.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHRM
2024 STATUS REVISED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1




Page 57
STRATEGY 9:
COLLABORATIVELY WORK ACROSS DEPARTMENT AND AGENCY BOUNDARIES
 Build Incident Management Team for coordinated heat response Action 9.1
Beginning in 204, the City of Phoenix will adopt an Incident Management Team (IMT)
framework for the Heat Season. The Office of Emergency Management is well suited to
integrate a unified command approach covering all phases of the City’s Extreme Heat
Response efforts. Implementation of an IMT will effectively provide a command-and-control
element to systematically coordinate and manage the collective resources and personnel the
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OEM
2024 STATUS NEW
2023 STATUS / METRICS N/A
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1 AND YEAR-ROUND


 Convene regular meetings with departmental liaisons Action 9.2
In coordination with the Incident Management Team, cross-departmental meetings with heat
response liaisons from individual departments will be convened on a biweekly basis at minimum
through the 2024 heat season. These meetings will help raise collective awareness of the entire
portfolio of heat response programs and services offered by the City and provide updates
concerning program status, weather forecasts, and health impacts.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHRM, OEM, OPH
2024 STATUS NEW
2023 STATUS / METRICS N/A
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1 AND YEAR-ROUND


 Collect comprehensive evaluation data to support heat response Action 9.3
The City will continue its efforts to gather and analyze a wide range of data related to the Heat
Response Plan. These data include outcome and process measures, as well as qualitative
feedback from program administrators, community partners, and individuals receiving City
services. The addition of new staff in the Office of Heat Response and Mitigation in 2023 will
enable a more rigorous evaluation process for the 2024 Heat Season to ensure that heat
response efforts remain adaptive, evidence-based, and responsive to community needs.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHRM
2024 STATUS REVISED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. N/A
IN EFFECT TIER 1 AND YEAR-ROUND




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 Provide weekly updates on heat response programs Action 9.4
The Office of Heat Response and Mitigation will publish a weekly status report throughout the
Heat Season, offering insights into the ongoing implementation of heat response programs and
services. This report will feature highlights, recommendations for program adjustments as
needed, and summaries of pertinent weather and health data. In response to feedback from city
staff and external partners, the format and content of this report have been revised for the year
2024. All weekly heat reports are posted and archived online.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHRM
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT / 12 WEEKLY REPORTS PUBLISHED IN 2023
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.phoenix.gov/heat
IN EFFECT TIER 1




 Participate in and lead cross-agency engagement Action 9.5
The City will continue to participate in, and where appropriate, lead, heat response initiatives
across a wide range of governance scales. Examples of past and ongoing efforts include a two-
day regional heat planning workshop convened with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA) in February 2023, a City-organized roundtable discussion on heat,
health, and homelessness with regional partners in April 2023, and participation as a NOAA
Heat and Equity Pilot Project city. Phoenix also participated in the Arizona Heat Planning
Summit held in October 2023 and has provided input to the forthcoming Statewide Heat
Preparedness Plan. The City recognizes the importance of coordination across governance
scales to ensure that resources are deployed as effectively as possible to support the goals of
the Heat Response Plan.
TARGET POPULATION CITYWIDE
LEAD DEPARTMENT(S) OHRM, OEM, OPH
2024 STATUS CONTINUED FROM PRIOR YEARS
2023 STATUS / METRICS ACTION WAS IN EFFECT
RESOURCES / MORE INFO. https://www.phoenix.gov/heat
IN EFFECT TIER 1 AND YEAR-ROUND






Page 59
Acknowledgments
The City of Phoenix appreciates the efforts of all community partners who are working to reduce
the adverse impacts of extreme heat. The organizations listed below participate in actions listed
in the Heat Response Plan, have provided guidance on the City’s heat response strategies, or
have published plans and reports from which the Heat Response Plan draws content and
inspiration.

Office of Mayor Kate Gallego
Office of Vice Mayor Debra Stark, District 3
Office of Ann O’Brien, District 1
Office of Jim Waring, District 2
Office of Debra Stark, District 3
Office of Laura Pastor, District 4
Office of Betty Guardado, District 5
Office of Kevin Robinson District 6
Office of Yassamin Ansari, District 7
Office of Kesha Hodge Washington, District 8

Arts & Culture, Aviation, City Manager’s Office, Communications, Environmental Programs,
Fire, Heat Response and Mitigation, Emergency Management, Homeless Solutions, Housing,
Human Resources, Human Services, Innovation, Library, Light Rail Transit, Neighborhood
Services, Parks and Recreation, Police, Public Health, Public Transit, Public
Works, Sustainability, Volunteer Programs, and Water Services.

Local, Regional, and National Partners
Arizona Department of Health Services, Arizona Faith Network, Arizona Heat Resilience Work
Group, Arizona Public Service, Arizona State University, Bloomberg Associates,
C40 Cool Cities Network, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Chispa AZ,
Community Bridges, Inc., Crisis Response Network, Healthy Giving Council, Keys to
Change, Maricopa Association of Governments, Maricopa County Department of Emergency
Management, Maricopa County Department of Public Health, National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service Phoenix Forecast Office, Nature
Conservancy Arizona Healthy Cities Program, Phoenix Community Emergency Response
Team, Phoenix Parks Foundation, Phoenix Revitalization Corporation, Salt River
Project, Sustainable Cities Network, University of Arizona, Valley Metro, and Valley of the Sun
United Way.

Funding Partners
The City of Phoenix Heat Response initiatives benefit from financial resources made available
through grant programs offered by the Arizona Department of Housing, Arizona State
University, Environmental Protection Agency, Gila River Indian Community, and Maricopa
County Department of Public Health.






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